No relief for Auckland's housing shortage and stretched infrastructure with record migration providing around 40,000 extra residents for the city in year to November

Population growth from migration continues to break all previous records, with a net gain of 70,354 new residents in the November year.

This compares to 63,659 in the 12 months to November last year, 49,846 in the 12 months to November 2014, 19,478 in the year to November 2013 and a net loss of 1587 in the year to November 2012.

The biggest source of new migrants was China, with a net gain (long term arrivals minus departures) of 10,281 in the year to November, plus another 857 from Hong Kong.

That was followed by India which provided a net gain of 9109, the UK 5408, the Philippines 4515 and South Africa 4022.

There was a net loss of 1899 New Zealand citizens in the 12 months to November, and a net gain of 56,303 citizens of other countries.

Auckland remains the most popular destination for migrants by far, with 33,536 of those who arrived in the year to November saying they intended to live in Auckland, followed by Canterbury with  6703, Wellington 3589, Waikato 2764, and Bay of Plenty 2416.

However the actual number settling in Auckland was probably closer to 40,000 for the year because another 14,527 migrants did not state where they intended to live when they arrived.

The record flows of migrants into Auckland puts more pressure on the regions's infrastructure and compounds its serious housing shortage.

Statistics NZ estimates that migration is accounting for around two thirds of Auckland's population growth and there is an estimated housing shortage of more than 30,000 homes in the region which is worsening each month.

In the year to November, 41,200 migrants came to this country on work visas, 24,600 on student visas and 16,500 on residency visas.

Many of those who arrive on work and student visas apply for residency once they are here and become permanent residents.

There were also 37,500 Australian and New Zealand citizens, who do not require visas, who arrived in or returned to this country after an extended absence overseas.

The interactive chart below shows the monthly trend in net migration since 1990:

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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85 Comments

Fab Feb is going to rock then Families can Finally sell their Family homes.

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I think you overestimate the amount of money that chefs and retail managers make..
These people aren't buying property.

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Chefs?
$5/hour Cookie Boys and glorified dishwashers according to Gareth morgan.

Fair point; 'Chefs' and 'Retail Managers'

no shortage of petrol station clerks either

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I suspect it's actually many of those petrol station attendants on a working student visa that, following completion of their business study, morph into the 'chefs' and 'retail managers' in respect of those permanent residency statistics (given the oil companies don't provide the bogus job offer path to permanent residency).

For those thinking this property cycle is coming to an end please remember the 2001-2004 immigration boom fueled property prices to rise double digit until 2007.

Prices always follow immigration with a LAG. scary thought I know.

Last boom saw Auckland ran out of puff by 2005 (seeing a similar thing starting now prehaps) but secondary cities kept going at 20% pa through 2005,2006,2007.

Fair point. Demand will always drive prices, given a relatively constrained supply.
However, the absolute increase in dollar terms was substantially different back then. That is what fundamentally matters when wage growth is stagnant; not percentage increase.

We just don't have the wealth to support Auckland prices anymore. Whats more, neither do the two-bit migrants that we are guaranteeing entry to.
The Auckland market has, or will very soon, peak for this cycle.

Auckland has already run out of puff. Prices have already started to fall (like for like sales) over the past 5 months. Poor migrants don't buy houses and they fill the houses they rent to the gunnels so don't expect price rises there either.

Expect Auckland house prices to be down at least 20% off their peaks (like for like, not necessarily averages) over the next two years. This is the inevitable cyclical downturn.

A house which might have sold for $2m in the central suburbs mid 2016, is more likely $1.8m if you can get it now, $1.6m is where I think it will be before the end of 2018, if not $1.5m.

The rubbish selling at $800k in the outer suburbs can expect to get hammered, like it does in every downturn...

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election year in 2017. Time to throw national out and end this lunacy

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Yep, way to win the Auckland seats is to announce an Auckland depopulation strategy - not only plan for no more growth in number of arrivals but change immigration settings such that there is a narrow, narrow, narrow path to residency following completion of study for all those o/s students already here.

The city is grinding to a halt. Someone from the CBD told a workmate to give another three hours in addition to the normal time it takes to get to the airport. No amount of traffic cones and light phasing is going to solve that. Goff needs to assert massive pressure on CG regarding this immigration issue - he'd have all of Auckland behind him.

Threaten their electoral prospects and just watch how quickly they turn off the tap to the ponzi education industry.

I travel to Auckland airport often as I have clients out there. It's going to be a long wait at the airport 99.999% of the time if they follow that advice.

Fake news I'm afraid Kate. I drive to the airport all the time.

(A very unusual accident happened the other day when a truck blocked the entire motorway going to the airport but that was exceptional)

Any other Aucklanders here to back me up? Three hours to get to the airport? Seriously?

On the subject of fake news I heard on the Radio that six electors voted to stop Trump. The reality was that two voted against Trump and four against Hillary. Can any news be trusted?

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nope i live and work at the airport and it is getting worse by the year, no extra lanes but lots more extra cars, a few hundred homes to be built down the back of the oaks, large factories being built. both sides of the oaks meaning more workers needed
i can walk home to my house (which i do every day) quicker than my workmates who leave the same time can pass me.the jams at peak hour now are horrible, i have seen people get out of cabs and walk down the motorway as it is faster

We're not talking about leaving the airport at rush hour to go home. We are talking about people going to the airport to catch flights. It doesn't take three hours!

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The workmate I am talking about was leaving the CBD after the workday to catch a flight back to Wellington on a Friday. Point is, most folks travelling on business do travel during those rush hour periods - whether it is airport to city in the morning or the other way around at the end of the work day.

I back you up mate. 3hrs is rubbish.

Average Friday commute time CBD to airport would be no more than 90 minutes... noting the trip should take more like 30 in the absence of traffic

I can confidently back you up Zac. I have traveled to Akl Airport on almost all days of the week and at various times. I have never ever come close to 3hrs of travel time. I agree that it is a fake news or an exception.

Perhaps they took the scenic route.....

Yep - you are correct - fake news beat up.

I use the Skybus - 4 to 6 times a week from the CBD to the International terminal and back.

It's never taken more than 45 minutes and that is with multiple stops (and there is no bus lane to help - at least not on the Mt Eden run)

OMGosh!
Everyone knows immigration is over the top in Auckland and still we have loon of Epsom Zach always telling a different story!
Why should I have had to move to find peace in a city far away from my own country ? Because incompetence of the NZ govt & the hapless Mayor Brown who spent too much time engaging a Korean for fun.

Kate, show us your magic wand!!!

Yeah and who are you going to thrown in their place. Give us a break

WoW 29 Clickson comment above prove Key saw writing on the wall

Thank god car imports are staying up....at least the new housing minister, the Minister of Transport, can provide for these folks.

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It's what the government promotes and depends on as its central measure of political success - economic growth. It's about as short-term and short-sighted an idea of national value as can be imagined.

There have been three legs under this government's growth strategy. First was dairying expansion and intensification. And just how much future does this have - environmentally or in any other measure? Second, has been the Christchurch insurance income and re-build (trumpeted as a stroke of good economic fortune). But most of these cheques have been cashed.

So it leaves just this - immigration. As long as GDP is the sole political objective (forget about productivity), with construction carrying the can, and as long as home-owner voters feel better off, the arrivals doors will remain open. If the doors close, where will the success story be?

Don't forget what is perhaps the biggest leg under the ponzi - the housing bubble and associated increase in private debt at a rate several times GDP (and of course the large capital inflows into property as well).

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Only Country in the developed world where getting residency is easy and relatively cheap. It is a big scam on the people of NZ in the name of development and prosperity.

Yeah why should our winning lottery ticket (being born in NZ) be shared with any one else?

I'd rather have ambitious immigrants in my town than the lower quartile of nz born 'kiwis' who soak up tax dollars and don't add anything to society

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I teach o/s students at university. Almost all of those from Asia want to stay here to get away from the over-crowding (and the effects of it) in their country of residence. Until Auckland gets on top of its infrastructure problems - it is becoming exactly the kind of environment these students are trying to migrate away from - and they recognise that. They see their own desire to migrate as an example of Gareth Hardin's Tragedy of the Commons... i.e., I need to get in before the paddock is declared uninhabitable. And even though I teach in a provincial town - Auckland is the desire destination where permanent settlement is concerned. Many are hoping to combine their degree qualification with a customer service/front facing job with the advantage that they can speak one of the languages of the growing population of non-English speaking residents in Auckland.

Simon, you just wrote off over a million people. Even though it is harsh I do know what you mean, my own agents have filled up my rental properties with immigrants. They are good at paying the rent.
It is such a shame that it should be like this although sometime down the track we may well see the children of immigrants living on welfare like they do in Europe.

Reflects the Failure of the government and things to come for national party in 2017

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=1177...

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National party not putting any candidate in Mt Albert reflects their nervousness. Imagine a national political party in power is not fighting by election as know would lose - is this the confidence that they have. If they would have been confident with their work , they would have been confident in saying that our work will speak and we will win the seat from Labour.

Heart to Heart they too knows that come next election and will be good bye time for them. Mt Albert byelections have exposed them. When not fighting an election is a moral booster to the party, can understand the confidence (or lack of it) of the national party leaders.

Auckland is full! Just one more?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXH_12QWWg8

Bon appetit

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Every month reinforces my vote for NZ First

Provided he announced that will not go with national but in most probably if given a chance for power will go with national. So ......

Winston Peters should announce that he will only go with National provided he gets the role of PM. That way Bill will (likely) say, won't happen - and therefore Winston no longer needs to stick with the previous position about whichever party gets the most votes. It's a kill two birds with one stone strategy and given political nous, combined with Parliamentary and diplomatic experience, Winston to my mind really is the only PM in waiting material... particularly as we are I suspect entering uncharted territory on a global scale next year. A wily old fox is our only hope/best bet.

NissanGTR, Winston is great at being an attack dog when in opposition, but when in power history shows he is ineffective. His ability to oppose is not matched by his ability to do. Unfortunately the pack he leads is mediocre, if not nut bar stuff - take a look at Richard Prosser as an example of what you might end up with.

I's suggest you are better off with someone who has a track record of doing...that being Gareth Morgan. I'm looking forward to seeing his list of candidtaes, I suspect they will leave NZ First for dead.

I was working in CG when he was the Treasurer under a Nat Govt. Had a very tight rein on any new spending - so tight in fact - there was no new spending - instead there was an expectation for a 1% drop in expenditure year-on-year.

Those of us in charge of a Vote in terms of budgets were allowed to put up detailed proposals for new spending - and what we usually got back was feedback that yes, the initiative described needing the new money was favoured by the government - so we were instructed to find a way to make it happen within our existing baselines (less 1% that is).

In other words, he was good. Very good.

Then when in HC's Govt, I understand he did a great deal for the racing industry and was also highly regarded in the MFAT portfolio - but by that stage I'd returned to the PS.

I am curious. I have only lived here since 2003 and there this much of the political back story I don't really know. However, he strikes me as the sort of career politician that I just don't trust and I would hate to see him as PM. Will NZ First survive his final departure?

linklater01. Much to be admired in him as he has raised issues for years that have fallen on deaf ears. Google the 'winebox' which is one of them. A lot to admire in the guy, but you are correct...he is NZ First, it will die with him.

I do not believe he will tackle house prices too much - his core voters are the grey rinse brigade. Though he would have a go at immigration.

Rastus, if you tackle immigration you are tackling house prices, they hold hands.

Yes they certainly are. While I can see him tackling immigartion, this might only affect prices overall - whereas we need a policy that will even the playing field between home owner and invester (such as ring fencing losses, cap gain, TOP party policy..whatever). Winston might be reluctant to go this far due to his grey vote.

However, if we end up with a TOP, NZ First, Greens & Labour holding well over 50%, which is quite possible, then such anti investor policys become more likely. I think the Nats are far more damaged than is being acknowledged, I see them as toast by election time.

Trouble with Winnie is that his raison d'etre is being the burr under the saddle of government

If Liam Dann's opinion is correct - Bill English will be praying that does not happen before next election

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&object...

Will happen in ,2017 - When is the question and nats - if nats leader are smart should go in for early election or .......

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bringing in the equivalent of the population of whangarei every year but not providing the equivalent hospital,library,wastewater plant,schools,police stations etc; is crazy.how many extra cars on the road is that!now its like the aftermath of WW2 with displaced persons ,not by war but by the rogue immigration policy of their elected government,looking for a place they can afford to live in.

Bernard Hickey discusses the numbers for the construction boom vs population growth boom here.
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Business-news-with-Bernard-Hickey-211216/tabi...

Bernard says Auckland is only building one new residence for every 4.5 new residents which is well above Auckland’s average occupancy of 3 people per home, so the housing shortage continues to worsen.

Bernard reckons Bill English will get the State to build houses next year because the private sector is not doing enough.

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Again. We need a population policy. That is a set number that we think New Zealand should have. Then work to it. Counting immigration monthly as to what flows over the border is not much point.
Judging from previous comment streams it seems many common taters here see the point of a set desired population number.

It seems (unfortunately) that we do have a policy: MOAR!!

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This debt-fueled economic growth supported by thousands of unskilled expat workers is going to end catastrophically when the music stops. Just imagine the magnitude of unemployed expats who will be living in our tiny, remote nation following an economic downturn.

Great to see all the quality Countries coming to NZ, bringing export earning businesses rather than taking jobs, houses etc. Kiwis could fill. In the year to November net gain China 10,28, Hong Kong 857, India 9109 and Philippines 4515 and owning our precious land.

precocious land?

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The Government is very aware a majority of Kiwis have bought the carefully scripted line that 'immigration is good for us' so will not do anything more than tinker with policy settings.
It is running a delicate game of chicken - desperately hoping property gently subsides rather than crashes while cynically stoking immigration to defer the day of reckoning.
To hell with the chaos on Auckland roads, the lumpen proletariat will shrug and bear it.
Winstone growls to indulgent smiles, Andy shuffles awkwardly in his union straightjacket and gag but almost no serious voices of protest are raised at the sweeping changes being made to our land and society by rampant immigration.

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All I can say is WTF! This is way to much immigration. We have five times the immigration as a percentage of population as the USA and the UK. If this government won't cut it back then we need a new government.

The Auckland Council predilection for building massive sprawls in the middle of nowhere is severely inhibiting growth and costing a fortune. Our current Auckland development mode is never going to be able to cope with 40,000 immigrants, current Auckland Planning would be sorely tested with 1 person immigrating to Auckland.

How about we get our net immigration levels down to a level of 1 person and then you will all "know" who to blame.

Of course, if we concentrated development around Auckland City (as opposed to every outlying Hicksville) it would all cost less and we would accommodate way more people. But that requires the sort of mediocre planning capability exhibited by almost every city in the world, which is much to much to expect of our clowns.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/87366665/guilty-verdicts-in-auckland-roa...

People will move where the resources haven't been totally screwed ... yet. But the picture globally is grim, we are in overshoot and collapse is baked in ..

"The “net energy principle” guarantees that our global supply lines will collapse. The rush to social collapse cannot be stopped no matter what is written or said. Humans have never been able to intentionally-avoid collapse because fundamental system-wide change is only possible after the collapse begins."
http://www.jayhanson.org/problem.htm

While I understand the benefits of migrants , maybe we should close down the New Zealand Immigration Service , and send everyone in the NZIS on a sabbatical for a year , while we sort out the massive backlog and chaos they have created for us .

Why not charge migrants an immigration tax - that would stop the queue.

It can be refundable if they leave and become a partial tax deduction if they stay. That way they NZ would be guaranteed a benefit from having these migrants...

There is some benefit to some migrants, at the moment it is just ridiculous.

you don't know what you got

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvtJPs8IDgU

Does not blow smoke up the original
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgMEPk6fvpg

$3 /hour for welders and all legal. What an absolute disgrace this government has been. JK knew he had run out of smoke and mirrors. The New Years honours list is going to be hard to stomach.

Outrageous! I bet it is a foreign owned mill, milling foreign owned forest timber, using foreign slave labour and sending the profits abroad. Way to go New Zealand, welcome to the brighter future! There better be some heads roll over this and I would start with Woodhouse.

Yes, heads should roll. Un-bloody believable.

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This is no bloody different from those bloody slave fishing boats. What the actual eff is going on, right under our blasted noses. Man, the new government is going to have some work to do.

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The last few years have been extraordinarily successful in importing corruption, organised crime and exploitation, and exporting irreplaceable natural resources for sod-all benefit.

"Intricately" carved whole swamp kauri log, anyone?

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Interesting and pertinent thing happened to me yesterday.

Come home to see the family house in front of me that recently was sold (a nice 4bdrm family home in Hillcrest on Aucklands North Shore) has had the lovely front lawn covered in a bl@@dy concrete parking pad and a builders portaloo is up and workers in the garage......

Concerned I'd be hearing construction noise over the Xmas break I inquired what was happening - the tenant (a new immigrant from India) told me the landlord (from China) is turning the garage into a minor dwelling and putting another family in there but "knows nothing else as I'm just the tenant and what can I do?" The poor guy had NO idea of his rights as a tenant- he looked beaten and just happy to have a roof over his head...

Welcome to your new Auckland - a once vibrant family home where kids played but the NZ owners moved to Tauranga due to the changes in Auckland.

So this perfect family home, now brought by a rich immigrant and modified to house lots of less rich immigrants to increase his yield....

They don't give a damn about our way of life, or fitting in etc like previous generations of immigrants wanting to improve their lot .

We're just a toy play thing to generate more money for them.

What should be happy family homes are being turned into accommodation hostels for anyone who can make the rent. Living in cramped spaces we would never dream of and used to look at in horror when we traveled overseas to these countries and were happy to come home and get away from....

Seems we now condone this...in our backyard

Breaks my heart to see my city of birth, and the city of my dear children being turned into a slum - guessing its the tip of the iceberg - truly gutted on a micro and macro level.

I could care less the "paper value" of my home has doubled as I need to live in it - BUT my quality of life is dropping dramatically in a terrifyingly short period of time!

In reality I feel LESS well off.

The changes in the last 5 years has been dramatic (overcrowding, 3rd world traffic congestion, multi million dollar corruption from new immigrants, even human trafficking for gods sake..)

Why cant people get this? It's staring you in the face.......

Are we that easily blinded by paper wealth?

Or blind political ideology they we cant see the forest through the trees?

We are losing OUR way of life in NZ biggest city - Wake up people...talk about frogs in the pot.

Merry Xmas ............

The Silent Majority
The Great Wall of Silence - Silenzio - look at the silent ones giving U the thumbs up

This is a quote from Kate a regular poster here who is a Lecturer at a southern Tertiary Institution

Yes, we have lost the plot - especially if most of these foreign students hope to stay in NZ long term. I teach a number of them too. They are good young people, with hopes and dreams to live in a genuinely fair and democratic society.. one with a social welfare system, one which is more civil, less populated and less polluted than where they come from. The problem is, our society is becoming more like where they are from at an alarmingly rapid pace. They can see the growing injustices better than their young NZ counterparts

Q
Do they see they are in fact agents of change, re-creating the very conditions they seek to escape from, but bring with them? The impossibility of our society remaining un-changed, un-polluted and our identity un-corrupted?

A
Yes, they do, but that of course doesn't deter them from their hopes to settle here - and their hopes that "WE" will see the folly of OUR ways and hence, halt the decline during their lifetime. It is fascinating to read their written work as these students defend our democratic institutions with real passion and argue more vehemently against social and environmental injustice than their kiwi counterparts. It is completely understandable - as the saying goes, "you don't know what you've got till it's gone".

Don't get me wrong, most I teach would make absolutely great citizens .. but you've nailed the dilemma on the head. I do suspect that NZs social welfare state will not survive my lifetime

June 2015
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/76091/population-growth-migration-set...

We didn't just sell a house we sold a lifestyle and a heritage. Who would have thought that Western cultural cachet would earn such a pretty penny? At least the Boomers can retire and enjoy the lifestyle they have become accustomed to. Holidays in Fiji and Phuket until the end, sucking up the world's resources on cheap air travel, being attended to by lowly paid foreign people. Trouble is once you have sold your inheritance you can't pass it on to your descendants.

It is up to the descendants to make their own stamp on the world.
They have been given a good head start.
Thanks to to the Boomers.

May be something like this is the solution to Auckland's housing woes, do you think ?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-11-21/-100-billion-chinese-...

Interesting how they are building this right next to Singapore as if it is a de facto extension of the city-state. It's a smart idea actually. Singapore with its official English language and meeting place of Chinese and Indians is a great business hub. A fabulous international airport right next door to the development.

Well you could just pave over the entire Manukau Harbour and that would provide a place for countless multi story buildings. Say 100 million people. The new Auckland.
To destroy the Manukau would be a crime against the planet of course, and against humanity, but hey, lots of GDP numbers would result.

I've often thought it would make sense to fill in the wet bit on the left as you head out West on Auckland's NW motorway. It's just mangrove swamp and would be easy to do as it is already walled in by the motorway.

Mangroves and Mudflats

A response to your wonderment would be to look back at the history of the proposed reclamation and development of Ngataringa Bay in Devonport by the Robbins Corporation back in the 1970's. Read up on the controversy it generated and the consequences for the elderly locals that were financially squeezed as a result - then go and have a look at the place today

Might sound like a clever idea but not very smart - mind you the composition of Auckland's population today is vastly different to that of the 1970's - as an idea it might even get legs in today's environment - but do read up about it - interesting read

Here is a google maps satellite view of Ngataringa Bay - all mudflats at low tide - Ngataringa Park in the lower right hand corner was once the town rubbish dump from which toxic leachate will discharge into the bay for at least another 50 odd years
https://www.google.co.nz/maps/@-36.8188027,174.7905842,582m/data=!3m1!1e3

It does look like an easy place to fill in. It may stop the leachate from getting into the sea as well. Some may want to protect the mangroves although I heard that the Auckland had far fewer mangroves when it was in a more natural state. Mangroves are noxious in my opinion and spoil coastal areas. They are spreading like weeds throughout the region and the AC is endeavouring to control them. Auckland would be a better place if it had no mangroves.
Hobson Bay looks very fillable as well:

Hobson Bay

Every one is working on changing the climate in different ways,aye.

while there is such a big wage gap between countries the cues to get in will be endlesshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-24/inside-one-of-the-wor...

Photo shows people leaving New Zealand?

Queen Chen's New Year Message
By Mai Chen

A new year is about new perspectives, and from the perspective of the rest for the world, there are many reasons why record numbers of tourists come to New Zealand and migrants want to settle here.
We can breathe the air and drink water from the tap. Friends just back from visiting Beijing coughed their way around the Forbidden City and climbing the Great Wall. Corruption is not the modus operandi and if you try it, our enforcement system generally catches you. We have an independent judicial system and we have tough regulation and regulators to protect the public interest whether in financial products or food. But there is potentially another great market advantage New Zealand has of greater cultural competence than other parts of the world due to the large number of indigenous people and Auckland being the largest Pacific City in the world. Now with the growing number of migrants allowed into New Zealand as international students, essential and highly skilled migrants (to work on the Christchurch rebuild, to work on farms and in the health sector, for example) and business investor migrants, we have now become one of the most superdiverse countries in the OECD.

So we now have this new state superdiversity, or sparkling diversity or stardust diversity and emporers new clothes diversity

natrually it follows on with (sarcasm) :

Cultural competence is the ability to work with and relate to people who are not like us. If we want to increase exports, find more lucrative markets for our produce and attract the best talent and foreign investment, then the ability to understand and communicate with people not like us is essential. Even judges need more cultural competence as the ethnicities of those turning up in court continues to change.

http://www.chenpalmer.com/news-articles/lets-make-nation-even-better/

Mai Chen dodges question
“You focused on presentation around winning. What about the values of lifestyle and well being?”
43:52
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LwFxvC2shA