Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 4 months

Latest articles

USD remains soft

Rising US inflation expectations not reflected in a stronger USD; Brexit fears overdone, GBP on reverse course; EUR riding on GBP coat tails

27th Apr 16, 8:22am

by Jason Wong

Rising US inflation expectations not reflected in a stronger USD; Brexit fears overdone, GBP on reverse course; EUR riding on GBP coat tails

'Anyone's guess'

Markets unsure of how the RBNZ will approach its OCR decision and whether rate cutting is still the favoured policy response. US Fed and AU CPI also due

27th Apr 16, 7:51am

by Jason Wong

Markets unsure of how the RBNZ will approach its OCR decision and whether rate cutting is still the favoured policy response. US Fed and AU CPI also due

Global manufacturing data undershoots

Run of soft business data dampens sentiment; increased oil production pushes prices lower; GBP breaks higher as Brexit risks diminish

26th Apr 16, 8:18am

by Jason Wong

Run of soft business data dampens sentiment; increased oil production pushes prices lower; GBP breaks higher as Brexit risks diminish

Rates in upward bias

Although many policy makers see further rate cuts as counter-productive, markets expect RBNZ to keep cutting. But few see a cut on Thursday

26th Apr 16, 7:55am

by Jason Wong

Although many policy makers see further rate cuts as counter-productive, markets expect RBNZ to keep cutting. But few see a cut on Thursday

Rising expectations of RBNZ easing

Recent strength of NZD puts pressure back on RBNZ to cut; Citigroup's daily commodity terms of trade index for NZ trending down; Germany criticises ECB saying stimulus doesn't work

22nd Apr 16, 8:14am

by Jason Wong

Recent strength of NZD puts pressure back on RBNZ to cut; Citigroup's daily commodity terms of trade index for NZ trending down; Germany criticises ECB saying stimulus doesn't work

Global forces drive long term rates higher

Yield curve steepens as long rates rise. Markets see low chance of an OCR hike next week. But offshore benchmark rates trending up

22nd Apr 16, 7:53am

by Jason Wong

Yield curve steepens as long rates rise. Markets see low chance of an OCR hike next week. But offshore benchmark rates trending up

NZ export commodities underperforming

CBA index of NZ export commodities shows declining trend; NZD bucks trend and falls back; latest polls suggest UK remains in EU

21st Apr 16, 8:04am

by Jason Wong

CBA index of NZ export commodities shows declining trend; NZD bucks trend and falls back; latest polls suggest UK remains in EU

US rate rises an outlier

China's signal it will be tackling "overexpansion of corporate leverage" saw NZ wholesale rates fall with many other countries. Japan and Europe rates fall too

21st Apr 16, 7:38am

by Jason Wong

China's signal it will be tackling "overexpansion of corporate leverage" saw NZ wholesale rates fall with many other countries. Japan and Europe rates fall too

Relentless Yen strength

Japanese officials failing to jawbone the Yen lower; NZD/JPY traded above PPP estimates for last 14-years; USD sentiment perks up

8th Apr 16, 8:29am

by Jason Wong

Japanese officials failing to jawbone the Yen lower; NZD/JPY traded above PPP estimates for last 14-years; USD sentiment perks up

UST 10yr yield approaches 2016 lows

Safe haven demand rises; German yields near record lows. Local rates hold within a tight range

8th Apr 16, 8:28am

by Jason Wong

Safe haven demand rises; German yields near record lows. Local rates hold within a tight range

Crude oil inventories fall

Better news for oil sector, oil price jumps 5%; Yen strengthens while risk appetite improves; division within in Fed committee; NZD rising on USD weakness

7th Apr 16, 8:29am

by Jason Wong

Better news for oil sector, oil price jumps 5%; Yen strengthens while risk appetite improves; division within in Fed committee; NZD rising on USD weakness

Risk-on mood lifts UST rates, but only modestly

A third of the world's developed market sovereign debt has negative yields. Now a 50:50 chance of an April cut by RBNZ

7th Apr 16, 8:27am

by Jason Wong

A third of the world's developed market sovereign debt has negative yields. Now a 50:50 chance of an April cut by RBNZ

Risk appetite sours

Not obvious why market has turned so much; AUD casualty of risk-off move; NZD softer after QSBO showed weaker business confidence; better than expected dairy auction

6th Apr 16, 8:09am

by Jason Wong

Not obvious why market has turned so much; AUD casualty of risk-off move; NZD softer after QSBO showed weaker business confidence; better than expected dairy auction

'Inevitable' NZ swap rates will dip below Australian equivalents

Yields slip in Germany, the US, Australia and NZ. The gap between the NZ and Australian 2-year swap rate now less than 10 bps

6th Apr 16, 7:39am

by Jason Wong

Yields slip in Germany, the US, Australia and NZ. The gap between the NZ and Australian 2-year swap rate now less than 10 bps

Sea of red across commodity markets

Recent commodity rally overdone, prices now correcting; Saudi's will only freeze oil production if Iran follows, oil price falls to under $36/bbl; NZD/USD down 1%; prospects for weaker dairy auction overnight

5th Apr 16, 8:18am

by Jason Wong

NZ rates driven lower by Aussie rally

In a global low yield environment, NZ’s relatively high yields stand out as representing very good value. Offshore demand is strong

5th Apr 16, 8:16am

by Jason Wong

In a global low yield environment, NZ’s relatively high yields stand out as representing very good value. Offshore demand is strong

NZD flat after 'Goldilocks' US jobs report

US and China supply markets with stronger data, Japan with weaker data. Currencies little changed although the Yen rises with Japan risk-off mood

4th Apr 16, 8:05am

by Jason Wong

US and China supply markets with stronger data, Japan with weaker data. Currencies little changed although the Yen rises with Japan risk-off mood

Global 'risk-off': US 'risk-on'

A better-than-expected China PMI result pushes up the NZ yield curve. Stronger US jobs data confuses investors over probability of a US hike

4th Apr 16, 7:19am

by Jason Wong

A better-than-expected China PMI result pushes up the NZ yield curve. Stronger US jobs data confuses investors over probability of a US hike

US Treasury yields fall despite hawkish speeches

US Treasury yields continue to decline although one full US rate hike is implied by market pricing; NZ swap curve steepened as long end rises sharply; strong demand expected for latest NZDMO bond tender

24th Mar 16, 8:27am

by Jason Wong

Fed speakers hawkish

Message from latest round of Fed speakers suggest hikes should be looked at next month; USD in broad based rise; NZD/AUD back over 89c

24th Mar 16, 8:17am

by Jason Wong

Message from latest round of Fed speakers suggest hikes should be looked at next month; USD in broad based rise; NZD/AUD back over 89c

Bond yields fall on terror attacks

German & US key bond yields lower in risk-off trading; S&P highlights NZ's monetary & fiscal flexibility as well as economic resilience in latest credit rating report

23rd Mar 16, 8:33am

by Jason Wong

German & US key bond yields lower in risk-off trading; S&P highlights NZ's monetary & fiscal flexibility as well as economic resilience in latest credit rating report

Terror attacks cause rush to safe havens

Risk index climbs in wake of terror attacks in Brussels; AUD bid up after RBA Govenor's speech; NZD/AUD approaching heavy technical support level of 88c

23rd Mar 16, 8:19am

by Jason Wong

Risk index climbs in wake of terror attacks in Brussels; AUD bid up after RBA Govenor's speech; NZD/AUD approaching heavy technical support level of 88c

NZ 2-year swap rate at historical low

Expectation of easier monetary policy sees NZ 2-year swap rate fall further; implied US break even inflation rate gets attention; upside bias to global bond yields

22nd Mar 16, 8:29am

by Jason Wong

Expectation of easier monetary policy sees NZ 2-year swap rate fall further; implied US break even inflation rate gets attention; upside bias to global bond yields

Brexit risks remain

GBP continues to be sold off; US existing home sales disappoint; USD continues post FOMC recovery; oil price tracks lower, NZD follows

22nd Mar 16, 8:21am

by Jason Wong

GBP continues to be sold off; US existing home sales disappoint; USD continues post FOMC recovery; oil price tracks lower, NZD follows

Fed's actions clearly not data-dependent

Traders re-think positions post FOMC meeting; US consumer confidence weaker, inflation expectations rise; 10-year NZ government bonds trade under 3%

21st Mar 16, 8:44am

by Jason Wong

Traders re-think positions post FOMC meeting; US consumer confidence weaker, inflation expectations rise; 10-year NZ government bonds trade under 3%