Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 3 months

Latest articles

Markets place bets on upcoming policy decisions

Speculative positions anticipate deeper negative rates from the ECB and lower yields in the US. NZ rates curve steepened with rises at long end

4th Mar 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Speculative positions anticipate deeper negative rates from the ECB and lower yields in the US. NZ rates curve steepened with rises at long end

NZD left in wake of strong AU GDP

Australian Q4 growth handily beats market expectations, boosting AUD. Fair-value reassessments see NZD fall and it may fall further

3rd Mar 16, 7:53am

by Jason Wong

Australian Q4 growth handily beats market expectations, boosting AUD. Fair-value reassessments see NZD fall and it may fall further

Yields grind higher as traders re-think

UST yields and European rates both turn higher and credit spreads turn lower as markets react to more positive data. Local yields follow higher, easing OCR rate cut bets

3rd Mar 16, 7:39am

by Jason Wong

UST yields and European rates both turn higher and credit spreads turn lower as markets react to more positive data. Local yields follow higher, easing OCR rate cut bets

Spring back in investors step

Bottom in US manufacturing reached; risk back on the table as equities rise and Yen weakens; China PMI data continues to disappoint; RBA statement fails to move AUD

2nd Mar 16, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

Bottom in US manufacturing reached; risk back on the table as equities rise and Yen weakens; China PMI data continues to disappoint; RBA statement fails to move AUD

More NZ wholesale rate falls unlikely

UST yields jump on stronger than expected US factory data. Markets believe Fed will hike, despite Dudley review. NZ wholesale rates should get support today

2nd Mar 16, 7:48am

by Jason Wong

UST yields jump on stronger than expected US factory data. Markets believe Fed will hike, despite Dudley review. NZ wholesale rates should get support today

Wholesale rates keep falling

10-year German Bund futures contract broke through the 0.0% threshold into negative yield territory for the first time ever last night. Expectations lower elsewhere too

1st Mar 16, 8:15am

by Jason Wong

10-year German Bund futures contract broke through the 0.0% threshold into negative yield territory for the first time ever last night. Expectations lower elsewhere too

EUR weakens on softer inflation data

Eurozone CPI falls to fresh lows; EUR suffering spill-over effect from GBP weakness and expectations of additional ECB stimulus; expectations of further rate cuts by RBNZ fuelled by weaker data

1st Mar 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Eurozone CPI falls to fresh lows; EUR suffering spill-over effect from GBP weakness and expectations of additional ECB stimulus; expectations of further rate cuts by RBNZ fuelled by weaker data

'Sanity prevails'

The NZD tries to escape its tight range with a bid higher, but stop loss triggers put it back in the cage. Strong US data a backdrop to an impotent G20 meeting

29th Feb 16, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

The NZD tries to escape its tight range with a bid higher, but stop loss triggers put it back in the cage. Strong US data a backdrop to an impotent G20 meeting

Market turns toward Fed inflation views

US growth and inflation data sees markets accept higher change of Fed rate hikes. Local wholesale rates hit fresh lows

29th Feb 16, 7:43am

by Jason Wong

US growth and inflation data sees markets accept higher change of Fed rate hikes. Local wholesale rates hit fresh lows

More pressure to the downside

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

26th Feb 16, 8:08am

by Jason Wong

Record low interest rates and yields both locally and internationally. US energy debt defaults catch market attention

Selling pressure on GBP abates

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

26th Feb 16, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

GBP bounce could be temporary event; market ignores 6% drop in China's stockmarket; US durable goods orders data challenges view of slumping manufacturing sector due to strong USD

The direction is down

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

25th Feb 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

Local swap rates fall and further falls are possible. Global moves add to downward pressures. Eyes on NZGB tender

Oil price continues to drive market gyrations

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

25th Feb 16, 8:00am

by Jason Wong

Oil prices continue to decline, inefficient & uneconomic oil producers will have to get out; weak economic data contributing to risk-off tone; relentless selling of GBP

Saudis won't cut oil production levels

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

24th Feb 16, 8:28am

by Jason Wong

Oil price down as hopes fade for coordinated policy effect on supply; GBP continues to be hit on Brexit concerns; NZD weakens to 200 day moving average as risk-off mood prevails

Inflation expectations rule

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'

24th Feb 16, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

Local rates tracking lower with offshore hedge funds convinced the RBNZ will be 'forced into easing policy again'

NZD moves above 200-day moving average

Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly

23rd Feb 16, 8:25am

by Jason Wong

Next technical level for NZD/USD is 69c; GBP/USD plunged to a 7-year low; oil production freeze deal still alive; risk on environment as oil prices & equity markets rise strongly

Bonds don't react to commodity action

Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally

23rd Feb 16, 8:04am

by Jason Wong

Currencies and equities absorb all the commodity impacts but bond prices and yields hold in a tight range, globally and locally

Risk off

EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker

22nd Feb 16, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

EU worries that negative interest rates undermine bank stability; US inflation up; Yen strong; UK split on June Brexit vote; commodity currencies weaker

Diverging tracks

US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise

22nd Feb 16, 7:49am

by Jason Wong

US inflation higher than expected; chances of Fed hike rise. NZ inflation expectations lower than expected; chances of OCR cut rise

Next BoE rate move could be a hike

BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates

5th Feb 16, 8:39am

by Jason Wong

BoE Governor Carney says next move for rates were "more likely than not to rise"; market pricing in slim chance of RBNZ rate cut in March; investors attracted to NZ's higher long term rates

Weaker growth picture in US

Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c

5th Feb 16, 8:27am

by Jason Wong

Expectations of Fed rate hike ease on economic outlook; ECB & BoJ fail to talk down their currencies; USD weak across the board, NZD/USD over 67c

FX markets in 'crazy session'

USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain

4th Feb 16, 8:10am

by Jason Wong

USD weaker as NY Fed chief notes tighter conditions. NZD gains on both jobless rate fall and Wheeler comments. Global equities weaker while commodities gain

Markets push back OCR cut expectations

Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate

4th Feb 16, 8:01am

by Jason Wong

Wheeler's speech changes market perceptions, emphasises the flexibity he has, de-emphases the focus on the headline inflation rate

Oil-equities correlation reactivated

Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall

3rd Feb 16, 7:51am

by Jason Wong

Oil majors thrashed with oversupply and softening demand; EU labour markets improve; NZD recovers quickly after less-than-expected GDT fall

NZ Govt bond yields stand out

UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day

3rd Feb 16, 7:40am

by Jason Wong

UST yields keep falling but still attractive to yield investors; NZGBs even more so. Prospects for further Fed rate hikes diminishing by the day