Rodney Dickens

About

Rodney is the MD of Strategic Risk Analysis, which prepares and sells reports on housing, construction, monetary policy and exchange rates.
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Member for

14 years 2 months

Latest articles

Will capacity constraints scuttle Labour's KiwiBuild plan? Yeah … Nah!

Rodney Dickens says higher construction demand will soon attract building capacity, so KiwiBuild's demands will be responded to by industry without starving other sectors for long

3rd Jun 18, 9:40am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says higher construction demand will soon attract building capacity, so KiwiBuild's demands will be responded to by industry without starving other sectors for long

Unraveling some of the mysteries of rent behaviour

Rodney Dickens doubts landlords' costs drive rents, suggesting it's more likely income growth does. But he finds there is confusion in the data with the biggest threat from inflation

4th May 18, 12:25pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens doubts landlords' costs drive rents, suggesting it's more likely income growth does. But he finds there is confusion in the data with the biggest threat from inflation

Labour's housing policies may fall short like National's policies did

Rodney Dickens says section prices are the key to solving the housing affordability problem, not higher density around transport hubs. He warns against force-feeding in areas that won't deliver the intended outcome

11th Mar 18, 5:02am

by Rodney Dickens

152

Doubting their usefulness

Rodney Dickens says the business confidence surveys have major political bias, and he checks how accurately these surveys signal growth trends

17th Jan 18, 2:49pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the business confidence surveys have major political bias, and he checks how accurately these surveys signal growth trends

The curious link between net migration and net tourism

Rodney Dickens sees a risk that a cut to permanent migration will weigh on the tourism sector as visitors shy away from New Zealand - for reasons that are by no means clear

31st Oct 17, 5:02am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens sees a risk that a cut to permanent migration will weigh on the tourism sector as visitors shy away from New Zealand - for reasons that are by no means clear

Could higher global inflation justify several OCR hikes?

Rodney Dickens looks at what drives global inflation, what drives New Zealand inflation, and is sceptical about how these forces will in turn influence our OCR

3rd Oct 17, 10:50am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens looks at what drives global inflation, what drives New Zealand inflation, and is sceptical about how these forces will in turn influence our OCR

It's a fallacy that there has been a massive under building of housing

Rodney Dickens says there won't be a major catch-up phase for residential building unless something significant is done to improve new housing affordability

31st Aug 17, 10:40am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says there won't be a major catch-up phase for residential building unless something significant is done to improve new housing affordability

'Interest rate falls more likely than rises'

Rodney Dickens says the effective OCR is well over double the 1.75% actual rate, and SMEs are paying that price for their working capital financing

3rd Aug 17, 2:01pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the effective OCR is well over double the 1.75% actual rate, and SMEs are paying that price for their working capital financing

An unfounded fear?

Rodney Dickens questions the threat technology poses to employment, noting that the new jobs that inevitably come are harder to see now than the ones that will be lost

12th Jul 17, 11:44am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens questions the threat technology poses to employment, noting that the new jobs that inevitably come are harder to see now than the ones that will be lost

Ravings of an Auckland housing sceptic

Auckland house price rises following Housing Accord to ‘boost supply’ means ‘10 steps back before a single step forward,’ Rodney Dickens says; Labour’s urban limit & infrastructure debt proposal “offers much more hope”

5th May 17, 8:34am

by Rodney Dickens

Some perspectives on the tourism boom

Rodney Dickens says now that tourism is vying with dairying as our number one export earner, it is time to scrutinise its economic impact in more depth

13th Apr 17, 10:00am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says now that tourism is vying with dairying as our number one export earner, it is time to scrutinise its economic impact in more depth

Ill-founded views pervade economists' exchange rate predictions

Rodney Dickens shows the NZD does not move in response to American benchmark interest rates. It is factors like relative economic growth and NZ export prices that really drive our exchange rate

26th Mar 17, 7:52am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens shows the NZD does not move in response to American benchmark interest rates. It is factors like relative economic growth and NZ export prices that really drive our exchange rate

'Another reason why I am wary'

Rodney Dickens says the huge disparities between reported GDP and employment growth raise more questions over the accuracy of critical official economic data

20th Mar 17, 12:54pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the huge disparities between reported GDP and employment growth raise more questions over the accuracy of critical official economic data

A mounting case for being sceptical of official economic data

Rodney Dickens thinks underfunding of Statistics NZ is bringing a higher level of uncertainty to their releases, more revisions, and more difficulty in using them for policy making

28th Feb 17, 1:10pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens thinks underfunding of Statistics NZ is bringing a higher level of uncertainty to their releases, more revisions, and more difficulty in using them for policy making

The interest rate-migration link that is critical to housing cycles

Rodney Dickens sees interest rates having to be increased to a level that will generate a hard landing for the economy, choking off immigration, and turning the housing market lower

12th Feb 17, 7:47am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens sees interest rates having to be increased to a level that will generate a hard landing for the economy, choking off immigration, and turning the housing market lower

Insights into which leading indicators matter and which don't

Rodney Dickens suggests how you should assess the numerous surveys and market indicators published about the economy, and how to draw conclusions from them

2nd Dec 16, 10:11am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens suggests how you should assess the numerous surveys and market indicators published about the economy, and how to draw conclusions from them

The importance of the labour market to businesses and investors

Rodney Dickens claims the pressures building in our labour markets bring a major threat of sharply rising inflation. The RBNZ should be taking more notice, he says

5th Nov 16, 7:45am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens claims the pressures building in our labour markets bring a major threat of sharply rising inflation. The RBNZ should be taking more notice, he says

Time to take economic forecasters to task

Rodney Dickens puts the boot into economic forecasters for getting it so wrong, sees a myriad of consequences from excessive OCR cuts

3rd Oct 16, 9:40am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens puts the boot into economic forecasters for getting it so wrong, sees a myriad of consequences from excessive OCR cuts

'The Reserve Bank is committed to driving another boom-bust cycle'

Economist Rodney Dickens accuses the RBNZ policy makers being out of touch with "the coal face" and the consequence will be a painful retrenchment after an unnecessary boom

21st Jul 16, 12:41pm

by Rodney Dickens

Economist Rodney Dickens accuses the RBNZ policy makers being out of touch with "the coal face" and the consequence will be a painful retrenchment after an unnecessary boom

Why the forex market is smarter than the Reserve Bank

Economist Rodney Dickens says the currency market is smarter than the Reserve Bank because it is much quicker at responding to economic news

12th Jul 16, 11:32am

by Rodney Dickens

Economist Rodney Dickens says the currency market is smarter than the Reserve Bank because it is much quicker at responding to economic news

The misguided OCR cuts pose a range of opportunities and threats

Economist Rodney Dickens says the boost from the OCR cut to the labour market means inflation will head into risk territory before the governor realises his mistake

3rd Jun 16, 9:41am

by Rodney Dickens

Economist Rodney Dickens says the boost from the OCR cut to the labour market means inflation will head into risk territory before the governor realises his mistake

Digging behind the 'nonsense reporting' on house prices

Economist Rodney Dickens thinks recent volatility in reported house prices was due to changes in the mix of what is selling due to demand-supply imbalances

19th Apr 16, 9:14am

by Rodney Dickens

Economist Rodney Dickens thinks recent volatility in reported house prices was due to changes in the mix of what is selling due to demand-supply imbalances

'Housing is no more unaffordable than average'

Rodney Dickens says it's interest rate policy that drives house prices and therefore affordability; migration is only of secondary importance

8th Mar 16, 5:02am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says it's interest rate policy that drives house prices and therefore affordability; migration is only of secondary importance

Awakening the slumbering giant

Rodney Dickens says forget dairy and housing, consumer spending is the central driver of economic growth. He sees stronger migration and rising employment driving our economy

2nd Dec 15, 10:56am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says forget dairy and housing, consumer spending is the central driver of economic growth. He sees stronger migration and rising employment driving our economy

'The bullshit meter was set off by one of Westpac's economists'

Rodney Dickens says the risk isn't that economic & employment growth will deteriorate, but rather low rates & high migration will drive growth in spending, GDP & jobs

10th Oct 15, 10:03am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the risk isn't that economic & employment growth will deteriorate, but rather low rates & high migration will drive growth in spending, GDP & jobs