Overseas workers continue to swell the workforce with 16,878 people arriving in Aotearoa on work visas in June, according to the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).
Overseas worker arrivals dropped to just a few hundred a month between April 2020 and March 2022, due to pandemic restrictions, but started increasing strongly again from April last year as border restrictions were eased.
The number of people arriving on work visas has been above 15,000 a month for all of this year and above 11,000 a month since September last year.
In first six months of 2023, 105,150 people arrived on work visas.
That's heading back towards pre-pandemic levels, when compared to the 123,492 that arrived in the first six months of 2019. The first graph below shows the monthly trend over the last 10 years.
According to MBIE, there were a total of 145,455 people in New Zealand on work visas at the end of June, down from more than 200,000 in June 2020.
However the main reason from the drop in the number of people on work visas was the introduction of the 2021 Residence Visa Scheme, which allowed around 160,000 people who were already in NZ on work visas to fast track onto residence visas.
That pushed the total number of people in NZ on residence visas pass 300,000 last month. That's the first time it has passed that threshold since MBIE began collating the figures in their current format in 2008.
However the 300,000 figure is truncated because MBIE only counts people on residence visas for the first five years after they have received their visa.
After five years they are no longer counted, so the total number of people with residence visas is likely to be significantly higher than 300,000.
The second graph below shows the monthly trends for the total numbers of people in NZ on either work or residence visas.
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109 Comments
Great news for Auckland rents.
Probably are living in cabins provided by the orchards in the regions.
Just as well a stackload of new builds are hitting the market this year
In a fairer world, should be letting our inflated markets (housing and retail) adjust themselves to lower purchasing power of NZ households. Unfortunately, the government has decided to stamp out hundreds of thousands of visas in less than a year importing consumers by the planeloads to rescue markets from the much-needed correction.
Low-skilled mass migration will lead to more downward pressure on wages (recent BoE paper proves it) and more competition for basics will keep the living costs high across the country. Seems to be the perfect recipe for pushing up homelessness, child poverty and crime in the country.
pushing up homelessness, child poverty and crime in the country.
Thats been the strategy for the last 20 years.. why stop now?
oh well, for the years without migration, we got inflation. hardly any relieve to the homeless, children are still hungry, and crime reached ever high.
In the years without migration we let people borrow as much as they liked for free.... maybe that had a lot more to do with infation than migration? Just saying.
obviously how we got bad with inflation, poverty and wave of crime is never a simple answer, but one thing rather clear, migration is not the root cause for poverty, child hunger or crime. poor governance is.
Poor governance is right. Migration is not the root cause, but it is an effect of poor governance.
A well governed and functioning society does not need tens of thousands of migrants a year to function.
They come because where they come from is worse
More people = more money in circulation = more demand = increased scarcity = prices stay high = inflation keeps higher for longer = OCR will need to go higher = more pain for kiwis already here....courtesy of the government they voted in. We are in a pickle aren't we.
On the plus side I do enjoy meeting more international folk and hearing their opinions and lens on current issues here. Sometimes a fresh perspective makes you appreciate that we have our issues here, but there are those with a lot less than we have elsewhere in the world.
there are those with a lot less than we have elsewhere in the world.
There are those with a lot less than NZ-landers in some aspects (e.g. wealth, medicines, education, electricity, toilets, food,..), but more in others, such as crime, rapes, poverty, rubbish piles, parasites, HIV cases, homelessness, etc.
NZ would do well to remember to be grateful, while at the same time considering how many social issues she'd like to import/replicate here.
I'm so glad I left NZ. We have a one-trick pony economy with politicians unable to do anything other than open the immigration flood gates.
I could be wrong (happened once before back in 2014) but, I would imagine that the visa application process would require that said migrant/s, would have to prove prearranged accommodation. Many would no doubt already have friends and family here already.
I wonder how many of these people were apple pickers.
Hawkes Bay has plenty of new faces around. Then they go home.
Seasonal workers.
How many apple pickers do you think we need in June??
None.
But you need lots of pruners.
Sure, I'd guess ~1/10th the number of peak season pickers
The exact opposite.
Despite what people think, much picking is now done via machine. It's an easier process to automate than pruning, which requires training shoots and selectively removing older wood.
A mechanised fruit harvester can suck fruit off a hectare in around an hour, but the pruning will take a team of 6 the best part of a day.
So if most apple picking is mechanised why the massive demand for pickers in Hawkes Bay?? As far as I can tell the first robots were only being trialed a couple of years ago, were hoping to pick about 10 bins a day (which is the same as one experienced apple picker), and would require orchards be completely redeveloped so the robots could access the fruit. As for picking a hectare per hour, assuming a typical modern planting system of ~2,000 trees per hectare that is <2 seconds per tree...apple juice anyone??
What you seem to be missing is the picking window may only be a few weeks per variety but winter pruning can last months hence far fewer workers needed.
It depends on what the apples are destined for. If going to be made into apple juice, baby food, McDonalds pies, or any other finished good where it doesnt matter what the apple looks like, they can be picked by machine. If going for the export market, particularly Japan, any apple with even the slightest blemish or bruise can't be sold, so they tend to be picked very gently, by hand. Same for grapes - high end wines usually use hand picked grapes, bulk or cheap wine they can be machine harvested.
Never seen an apple picking machine yet. Never met any picker that can pick 10 bins per day.
We simply haven't earned the right to change migration settings this loose. Hospitals are full, waiting lists are blowing out, ED's are rammed. Schools are failing students. Road congestion in the urban areas is terrible. Our electricity production can't keep up with demand despite having the wettest summer in memory and the lakes being full to the extent houses are getting flooded.
With infrastructure not supporting those who currently reside here this will make things a whole lot worse. I understand that there is a labour shortage but this level of migration is asking for civil unrest.
Our skilled teachers, nurses etc etc are leaving for Australia.
The Late Great St Landers of Cheaper Tomorrow was Correct !
Australian skilled teachers, nurses, doctors etc are leaving for the northern shores..
Sure are..CHC ED is spilling out the doors , waiting times through the roof, and then I see a recruitment bus driving around from Queensland health. NZ is not the place to get sick at the moment.
South Australia Govt also recruiting - Internet ad campaign for medical staff, tagline "From heart surgery to the beach, in a heartbeat". Lots of nice shots of modern, tech filled surgery rooms. And its in English.
Lots of my friends have left for Australia, two of my other friends are planning at the moment. Another one is leaving in September. I've heard lots of stories that skill migrates come to New Zealand just want to get some experience so they can move to Australia, hence why housing price is still dropping when so many oversea workers are arriving New Zealand. It seems that New Zealand can't keep skilled workers staying in this country at the moment.
Hi Brock, back again. You made it to Oz yet?
The main growth industries in NZ are all labour-intensive - construction, accommodation & food services, horticulture and retail trade - and are taking up the bulk of new work visas issued. This low-skilled job boom also explains our stalling GDP per capita growth despite high influx of workers.
Yet I am hearing more and more first hand stories of doom from those with skin in the game in the hospo, construction and retail.
Hospo and retail struggling on until the lease comes up for renewal then they close rather than recommit. Construction forward work falling to half in 6 months.
In 12 months time I expect even more kiwis will be added to the dole or quit the country because of this current wave of immigration.
On the contrary, I believe an attempt to cut their wage bills is the very reason many businesses in retail, construction and hospitality are rushing to bring cheaper migrants lower wage costs.
From what I've seen, most low-skilled migrants happily foot the bill for visa and relocation allured by the chance to move to NZ. If the owners still decide to close down, the worker is on their own in NZ with no recourse to the business other than any outstanding wages due.
In fact, there are resurging cases of unscrupulous businesses accepting cash payments from migrants via agents for visa sponsorship. What better time to do it than now with sales volumes dwindling?!
unscrupulous businesses accepting cash payments from migrants via agents for visa sponsorship
Sickening. I don't blame the person paying to get the visa, I sit all responsibility on the business. These actions can leave many low skilled workers without work in a recessionary period where they will find it even harder to find another job and keep their head above water.
Businesses found guilty of violating migrants' rights are punished with backpay and compensation to the affected migrant. Some are stood down from sponsoring migrants for a certain period of time - boohoo.
Decent financial upside in abusing the system without much downside risk.
Cant figure why a genuine employer would go to the bother and expensive of bringing in staff and then firing them. Does sound a dodgy scheme with migrant employer connections.
Understand from a large immigration advisor that there was a sizable exit from agricultural and other roles once the Covid residencys came through. Many of their clients were re employing from overseas.......
We have three staff who have covid residency visas and they have brought eight family in between them, the rest to arrive in the future. New Zealand is a lovely place to live compared to some overseas countries.
Immigration NZ publish the numbers. Each applicant has on average only one additional family member.
Who is "We" ? You mean the good old Labour party is stuffing things up again ? But hey you guys just keep on voting for this clown show.
National is planning to stuff this situation even more with Luxon promising to scrap median wage thresholds on work visas. That's death by a thousand cuts to the slightest hope of rebuilding our infrastructure and a productive economy in NZ.
We'd all be living high off the hog if it wasn't for all that cheap labour holding us back.
Actually wait, that's the only way most of us afford the lifestyles we have.
It’s the lifestyles we need to cut, but that’s political suicide. Just look at the backlash Lowe is getting by suggesting they need more people per household, young people moving back home etc.
Suburban nuclear family living is an almost universal failure, despite being pushed as the go to lifestyle model. Small groups of people, living in free standing buildings, each with their own compliment of appliances and appendages. We keep people alive nearly a century, and outsource the caring of them, and our children. Amazing.
You're right though, the alternative would not be tolerated by many, and be political suicide.
I guess the real question then is, how is it possible to reshape the ingrained cultural tendancy to seek only freehold land and a standalone house while seeing everything else as inferior. I can't answer that myself as it is a very multifaceted topic, but my first inkling would be to focus on infrastructure and reshaping our cities from being urban sprawls to building up from the center and having functional public transport that facilitates working in the CBD. Although Melbourne isn't perfect, it is a good start of an example for what AKL could look like, and should Christchurch have a spider web train network one day they could have something spectacular.
how is it possible to reshape the ingrained cultural tendancy to seek only freehold land and a standalone house while seeing everything else as inferior.
I think the western lifestyle is so intrinsic to the economy and psychology that it'll probably need to break first.
Grown adults in this country that make grown up decisions irrespective of which political party is in power? You know, things like scrambling over one another borrowing ever greater sums of money to bid on existing houses, all supported by banks that have made the decision to divert lending towards the "safe, easy and unproductive" part of our economy?
If we had a National Government, I'm suuuuure the numbers on RBNZ C31 would be $100b less and that figure would show up on some balance sheet elsewhere put towards building power stations and replacing pipes and stuff.
All the more reason to implement a permanent minimum stress test for borrowing: 10% for owner occupied, 20% for investment properties. Investment borrowing should always be tested at twice the % as owner occupied.
There are so many levers that are easy to implement to make housing for living in, yet no politicial party in NZ will touch it with a 10 foot pole.
This is the election that National should come out and have policies to actually support and revitalize the farming sector (no more exotic forests on prime grazing land) and fix the housing sector (by targeting property investors).
Look at the economy like an engine. Oil is money/capital that lubricates the moving parts of the motor.
At the moment we have all this oil accumulating in the sump because the oil pick up lines (banks) aren't distributing oil to the moving parts. The sump bung is gone, so we're also trailing oil along the ground (bank profits). Meanwhile the Government/RBNZ is continually pouring in replacement oil through the dipstick tube instead of the opening in the valve cover, because they don't want to tackle the job of fixing the engine.
I think that's the most complex analogy I've ever read.
Sounds like Dan has had the unfortunate experience of owning a CX5 or some other Mazda skyactiv engine.
Nope. I did have a BMW E36 328I track car for a while, but those things are more prone to cooling system failures.
More like Subaru.. they have reputation of oil burners..
Did you like the bit about pouring oil into the dipstick tube?
Great analogy, apart from you missed the part where the government is pouring water in the oil dipstick tube of their friends car due to them beingg too incompetent to own their own, so they borrowed their mates car.
The trouble is that there are too many dipsticks running this economy.
The Govt ran out of oil in 2020 and has been using water ever since. Now we are seeing the water heating up, and evaporating, and instead of cooling the engine, and keeping it running, it caused the engine to overheat. Now we need to pull over, turn off the engine, and wait for the engine to cool off completely before we top with some real oil and then restart he engine.
But how many have left? We're now down net 100,000 since Feb purely based on border crossings. Usually we get a slight up in July, for winter, but that's short lived. Again in fruit picking season. So how many of these departures are coming back? Nobody knows this.
We had 100,000 newly minted residents in 2022 AFAIK, so the effect of this increase in population should already be happening. Unless, of course, it has been matched with emigrants.
I agree. It takes an idiot to call high "provisional" net migration figures in a developed market economy and call it a "net brain gain". A simple look at the occupational data for work visas issued in the last 12 months shows we're bringing more hands-and-feet instead of brains.
Where can we find this data? Seems like it would be critical to assess how well our migration policies are working.
statistics-work-applications-approved-by-occupation (immigration.govt.nz) - Scroll down to page 40
Chef, deck hand, builder's labourer, cafe manager, retail supervisor and farm worker took the top spots in 2022/23 on number of work visas by occupation.
All roles that are likely to slump in Terms of need
Revisiting this for the chart - the big drop off in work visas due to the fast tracked residency scheme will come through in residency applications towards the end of this year (two years since the fast track applicant end date) or more likely through the middle of next year (two years after the big dip in work visas). We've "borrowed" stats, those who fast tracked their residency will no longer come through in their usual 2 year period. So we're likely to be nearing a "peak" of residency applications before this fast track rolls through and lowers numbers again by about this time next year, then a rise to some "normalized" trend.
On a different note, I find it crazy that those fast-tracked residency applicants did not even have to complete a medical! It is so kind of the NZ taxpayer to 'agree' to fund whatever medical issues those applicants might have for the rest of their lives. As for the fact that standard checks, such as blood tests for HIV, would not have been completed - wow!
The decision not to enforce medicals was apparently taken after the fact, when the government realized that getting that many applicants through medical checks in time was impossible. So I don't think anyone calculated how this will pan out for NZ society in the long run.
No medical check...are you certain about that? Surely surely we aren't that stoopid...are we...
I personally know a few applicants who were elated when they did not need a medical consultation as per the usual application process. The visa's health eligible requirements were quite a shambles and you only need to read the following notice to realise how badly it all descended into chaos: https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/media-centre/news-notifications/reimbursements-to-2021-resident-visa-applicants-for-the-costs-of-new-health-screenings
I think it was first decided that previous 'health screenings' that were up to 36 months (in other words three years!! old) was accepted for these visas. But later on, many of the other applicants just had to just state whether they were healthy or not - scout's honour kind of situation, I kid you not. No medical consultation needed. Yay!
Also, there were no English language requirements for the 2021 resident visa. (No Maori language requirements either. /s)
This isn't true. Immigration medicals were required for all applicatants.. the only exception being if you have previously undertaken a medical exam for immigration purposes within the last 2-3 years. But that is already the case for all visas.
Nope, it is true. Or do you have a source that is more reliable than www.immigration.govt.nz?
Read the following on https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/already-have-a-visa/o…
If you are applying in Phase 2 and are not one of those able to apply early, you will be applying using our enhanced Immigration Online system. This means you will be able to apply even if you have not been able to get a medical certificate before you start your application. If a medical certificate is required, you will be asked to provide one later. If you have been able to get a medical certificate before you start, INZ will have this information and you will not need to supply another one.
The original plan was that applicants for the 2021 visas should do a medical, but halfway through the process, NZ Immigration that it was not possible due to time and resource constraints. What I've heard from various acquaintances who got the 2021 residence visas, was that many never had any medical check, apart from having had to answer a few questions. (And why would anybody lie to those questions if only your entire future is at stake? Mind you, scout's honour and all that, I suppose.)
the 300,000 number for folks on residence visas,does that include partners and dependants?
fyi
information on the 2021 Resident visa application. Last updated 8th July
Majority granted visa. 15k People left to get this type of visa
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/waiting-for-a-visa/ho…
House sales in Auckland region very flat and demand for rentals has also softened in the last month or so - not sure where all these migrants are heading to when they arrive in NZ but it doesn’t appear to be Auckland. 380 properties for rent in the inner city and many been advertised for months. 769 for rent in Wellington City too
The regions yet alot on here think they all either head to Auckland and or Wellington. The regions are pumping. But also these same people were saying a few months ago that it was just a spike in work visas and that it will drop off. We'll it hasn't. I don't necessarily agree with the big intake of low skilled migrants and we should be way more selective. But NZ is still a desirable place to come and work and live and that is one thing a vast majority of them do.
Have you seen the development and traffic in Auckland and Wellington recently?
Have you seen the development in Taupo 800 hundred sections just across the road to me new countdown that's just one development pretty much sold out dosent include Kinloch have you seem Timaru new countdown and a several big new urban developments surveyor I spoke too several weeks ago got 4 yrs work. Taupo fixed population 25000 Timaru 50 000 put that into perspective with Auckland 1.2 mill
Scale is incomparable. There is near as many houses for sale in single suburbs as here is in Taupo, and much more diversity.
Still paradise compared to where many of these people are escaping from. If Auckland and Wellington are so bad then why are millions of people still living there ?
Yes it is but people think the economy and boom bust stops at the bombays and or Paraparam expressway. It don't
Still paradise compared to where many of these people are escaping from
By that logic, South Africa must be paradise since thousands of Zimbabweans cross the border each day escaping a life of abject poverty. Also, millions of people still live in Johannesburg, so it must truly be a piece of heaven on earth.
Good thing more of us are starting to admit we're more a refuge for those looking to "escape" from economic turmoil than a suitable living destination for talented people.
Economic or political turmoil.
Every refugee is invariably wanting to leave something behind, otherwise they have no reason to move.
Maybe it is those people that make those places hell?
Also forgot to mention Cromwell Wanake Queenstown. Trying to get trusses out of Cromwell manufacturer 8 weeks if lucky.
Perhaps there would be more political opposition to this if we had clarity on the true amount of unemployed people.
I guess that's our Doctors and Nurses shortages issues resolved.
Incoming - fruit pickers and farm workers
Outgoing - engineers, doctors, teachers, tradies young trainees.
[For those who owm farms, who can afford pvt medical insurance, private infrastructure, security and a helicopter] all will be awesome.
A loss of 30,800 NZ citizens year to May 2023 in latest statsnz migration released today.
A loss 13k NZ citizens to OZ last year.
However those coming in to work in agriculture are coming from incomparable systems. Training New Zealanders to our performance and quality levels should be a priority. The senior kiwi staff keep disasters at bay on farm, but there are fewer moving up through the ranks. To have a fully overseas staffed farm is known to not be ideal, philosophies on animal welfare and regulations can be very different.
Population Policy anyone?
It's either migrants or compulsory euthenasia
How about voluntary euthenasia for those who choose to go they way they wish without repercussions for their family etc? There are a lot of people who would rather go peacefully on their own accord than be forced to stay alive from a medical system that will keep reviving them against their express written wishes. All to fund the rest home system who will be a growing power by the day at present
The irony is, this will likely drive the biggest anti-immigration sentiment possible in the face of an enormous recession. The declining living standards, collapsing economic prospects and its consequences are going to be immense.
RBNZ wants more people out of job and government getting more people in the country to do what?
What is really going on?
That's how the maths work 😉
I'm an immigrant. And this is wrong. Nothing wrong with immigration but it needs to be targeted and part of a plan. This is scatter gun crap shooting.
Well to be fair we are all immigrants in this country, however 50 years ago the immigration was incredibly targeted, we got into NZ based on a very unique skillset that this country was desperate for at the time. My Father had the job before we even left the UK, still got the cabinet the with name and address of the company on it, hand written on the ship sticker.
Well said. Same here. There is a plan - make INZ as incompetant, bureaucratic, arbitrary and slow as possible so anyone with talent will go elsewhere but the desperate will hang on. So how many Doctors have arrived and achieved residency recently?
Why don't they publish a breakdown on which categories of employment these workers have been granted a Visa. I recall the Govt saying that we would be targeting high value immigrants once the borders re opened. I strongly suspect it is business as usual letting just about anyone in who can then go on to become taxi drivers etc. There will not be any value added to the economy just a drain on hospitals and other overstretched services.
There is recovery visa category and it's like any Tom Dick Harry who can pay his way through is allowed to come in.
I guarantee you there will be lots is illegals by the end of it in the country as a lot of them coming in do not plan to leave after 6 months when their visa conditions expire.
I guess we will see the ties to foreign crime syndicates will strengthen then and the drug trade will increase along with the resultant social harm that comes with it. Would not want to be a police officer at present personally, but thank goodness there are people who do.
Check the violent crime stats, it skews towards indigenous population. Extrapolate this over a changed population mix, and you will understand that you are wrong.
They don’t collect comprehensive data
The government of the day is lacking a long-term vision on managing aging population with a balanced immigration strategy. Whilst relaxation of immigration policy is absolutely essential for labour availability and to enhance productivity, it also doesn't make sense if teachers, nurses, and doctors have to pass through a common immigration queue. Obviously we need to attract high skilled migrants, but at the same time we also need orchard workers to strike a balance between agricultural exports and civil infrastructure. It's increasingly getting difficult to find agriculture workers.
Why don't we get current Kiwis on the dole to fill these jobs, instead of importing so many workers?
Well easier said than done.
How will you make anyone work who had no passion to work hard to earn their living.
When people are fed free generation after generation, they loose the will to work.
It's like when people propose sending troubled youth to the military.
Our understaffed military aren't trained babysitters, and boot camps don't seem to really work in sorting much more complex human problems.
From 1 March 2023 there has been a net outflow of people from the country of 122,000. We're replacing skilled Kiwi's heading to Australia or elsewhere with unskilled and unqualified immigrant labourers.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/immigration-visa-investigation-auckland-c…
Meanwhile people are getting sick and dying at a great rate of knots, and cant even access healthcare.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/canterbury/132525828/christchurch-hosp…
This is how unemployment figures are rising - not because existing employees are getting laid off.
So all these migrants are just arriving and going on the Bennie?
Sounds plausible.
The fact the benefit is referred to as a term of endearment sums it up
I talk to a lot of them on the daily basis, most of them are intending to stay and bring their families over.
How many are temporary workers such as apple pickers who will return home after a few months, and how many are here to stay permanently. It also needs to be weighed up against all the people leaving. Is the net effect a brain drain? Considering we have been told for years that we have a housing shortage where are they living.
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