Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we are struggling to find the proper words to describe the scale of the global economic disaster enveloping the world. And yet, equity markets are up today and remain relatively buoyant.
In the US, the number of new unemployment claims rose by +4.4 mln last week taking the total passed +26 mln in five weeks. At the start of March they had an employed workforce of 156 mln with 7.1 mln already unemployed then. Just six weeks later, 20% of their workforce is jobless. But things are worse than that. Not only have many people with jobs had hours reduced and pay cut, often both, states are still struggling to process unemployment claims so many more are actually newly jobless but not counted yet. We are witnessing a vast social disaster here.
In 'response' Congress has enacted a further US$½ tln in fiscal relief. But undermining that, the Republican leader in the Senate declared that states that run out of funds should just declare bankruptcy.
Just how hard the American economy has been hit can be judged from the April Flash PMI's released overnight. Their services PMI crashed to its lowest on record. Its factory PMI also fell very hard. Neither sector shows any optimism about the immediate future in coming months.
And a practical region example of the depth of the crash is in the overnight release of the Kansas City Fed survey. It is reporting lowest-ever factory activity, lower than the GFC contraction.
March new home sales contracted sharply too to be -10% below the same period a year ago. And it will have gotten much worse in April.
All this trouble compounds the US Federal debt problems. New analysis shows that the Trump fiscal irresponsibility, plus the pandemic mitigation funding, will push Federal debt levels to a larger share of GDP than during the Second World War.
Things aren't any better in the EU, with an unprecedented collapse in their April Flash PMIs as well. Their PMI index sunk to under 15, sucked lower by the French one at just above 10.
The worst PMI report is from Japan where their April PMI index is under 10. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to "go nuclear".
And China is also under increasing pressure to add to its already considerable stimulus. One plan is to relax car-buying rules.
In Australia, they have also had an "astonishing" drop in their service sector in April, according to the Markit CBA PMI. Company shutdowns and restrictions due to the pandemic response have resulted in severe declines in both business activity and new orders. The rates of contraction were much sharper than those seen in March, with a services PMI index under 20. Companies lowered their employment for the third month running, and at a considerable pace. Input costs decreased for the first time in the four-year survey history, mainly due to lower wages and fuel prices. The matching factory PMI data was well down too, but not anything like their service sector.
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,671,000 and up +70,000 from this time yesterday which is a slower rate of rise from yesterday. Just under 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is an unchanged level, and they are up +13,000 since this time yesterday to 848,000. This is a much slower rate of increase. Just over 9% of all US cases have recovered so far, which is no improvement. Infection rates in Russia are rising very quickly and they will be the next country to have more cases than China, following Turkey. Russian cases rose +125% in one week; Turkish cases rose +37% in one week.
Australia still has 6500 cases and little-changed over the past week; their recovery rate to 63% and also unchanged in more than a week. Australia is reportedly extending is border closing but considering opening it for New Zealand only. It seems unlikely New Zealand will reciprocate.
Global deaths are now at 186,400, with very variable reporting across jurisdictions. The most promising drug trial for a vaccine for Covid-19 has been pulled due to early signs it is ineffective.
There are still 1451 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with no new cases yesterday on a net basis, and less than the prior day's +6 increase. Sixteen people have died, and increase of two and all geriatric patients. There are now 8 people in hospital with the disease, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 73% and rising.
After a positive start, the S&P500's gains today are being whittled away with that index up now only +0.5%. Overnight, EU markets booked modest rises while yesterday most Asian markets were flat.
The UST 10yr yield has slipped -2 bps to just on 0.61%. Their 2-10 curve is narrower today at +38 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also narrower at +19 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is narrower at +51 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.87% and little-changed from this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is down -4 bps at 2.53%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also unchanged at 0.90%.
Gold is higher again today, up another +US$8 to US$1,723/oz.
Oil prices have risen again today. They are currently at just US$17/bbl and that is up +US$3 since this time yesterday. International oil prices are rising too, with the Brent benchmark up another +US$2 to US$22/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has risen overnight as well. We are now back at 60 USc and up +¾c from this time yesterday. On the cross rates we are firmer at 94.3 AUc. Against the euro we are much firmer at just over 55.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is back to 66.4 and the level it was at, at the start of the week. That is at its four-week average.
Bitcoin is sharply higher again today, moving up +6.4% since this time yesterday to US$7,559. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
229 Comments
In future even government will struggle with all the fiscal and monetary measures that are been thrown to keep the system alive.
Have to keep an eye on QE ....how much each government prints and it's effect on inflation and economy that survives the virus.
Australia was or has passed, not sure as had read something in the media but check below, how Indian government has banned Chinesse company to buy stressed Indian company mentioning that will take short term pain for long term gain.
More countries will follow and post virus world will change the way businesses are done.
Australia acted before :
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165687/Australian-government-…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/foreign-investment-board-braces…
Europe : https://www.ft.com/content/e14f24c7-e47a-4c22-8cf3-f629da62b0a7
https://tfipost.com/2020/04/we-cannot-let-china-destroy-us-spain-italy-…
USA : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/economy/trump-administratio…
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8adf33f7-ec01-4a40-9f1d-…
The process / Reset is on. Will be hard for China in Post Virus Era.
https://www.lightreading.com/asia/amid-covid-19-china-dependence-no-lon…
https://fortune.com/2020/04/15/coronavirus-pandemic-foreign-investment-…
Will definitely be followed
Correct stuart786 but their are many countries which will not be able to escape though being aware as have been peneteraded economicically by China to an extend that its very survival depends upon China - One such example is NZ.
National party operated seating on their lap and everything is worked for and around China so will be hard for NZ to break lose from its claws though current situation provides an opportunity to free oneselves.
Exporting is one part but allowing to be dictate or losing our souverignity should not be tolerated.
Wait and See.
I saw a comment from someone yesterday (AJ?) about the lack of deaths in some parts of the world. I cant remember where was referenced.
A friend noted this today. It suggests the numbers could be vastly under reported in Ecador making me wonder how prolific underreporting is.
it's perplexing, those BAME deaths in the UK could be an outlier but with international travel the way it is I would have expected high casualties in countries like Pakistan, India, all of Africa and Middle East.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191443/NHS-data-suggests-peop…
Germany has one of the highest average ages in Europe. Nearly 46 compared to the UK at 40. One is developing one of the highest deaths rates and the other one of the lowest. https://www.statista.com/statistics/624303/average-age-of-the-populatio…
There is clearly more to it than age.
And without doubt, there is reporting issues in the Middle East, Pakistan, India etc. Turkmenistan for example claims to not have a single case. And also, not to have ever had a single case of HIV in 40 years. Testing and reporting issues may relate to numbers of hospital beds and medical staff per head of capita, not to mention access to tests and testing capacity. If a wealthy country like the UK can utterly fail to perform enough tests, one can only imagine the difficulty facing much poorer countries.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sh.med.beds.zs
This could be partly Vitamin D related - if you have darker skin in the UK in Spring, chances are you have quite low Vitamin D levels. This impacts on your immune system. Meanwhile, people with darker skin living in Pakistan, India, Africa, likely have no trouble with their Vitamin D levels.
There is a theory that Vitamin D levels are so important that adequate production caused the evolutionary pressure for humans to develop paler skin as they moved further away from the equator.
Conversely, when people with pale skin migrate to sunny regions they get high levels of skin cancer, as in NZ and Aussie.
Why are you not convinced ? I'm sure you're aware UV light is a form of ionizing radiation, ionizing radiation directly damages DNA leading to mutations. The more mutations you accumulate the higher the likelihood of a proto-oncogene being affected by a mutation and hence cancer arising. Is it any wonder NZ and Australia have such a high rate of melanoma and other skin cancers?
NZ are Australia are true world leaders in skin cancer (and bowel cancer, likely because of our high red meat intake). We have roughly twice the incidence of skin cancer compared to the UK (per capita), despite having similar demographics. Hard to look beyond UV light as a major factor.
Completely agree with your perspective, as I have suffered with cancer of the skin, caused by my Sun stupidity at the Beach etc. Never was warned to cover up and most sun creams were useless back then, and it all was compounded by the years, until I learned better to cover my body from head to foot in thick clothing and hats. 40 years later, still paying the price 350 dollars + a lesion, removed at Doctors, or years waiting for Plastic Surgery..unfortunately...if that is needed. So cover up all you Ginger Ninjas....in particular....they should teach it in schools....these sunny days in particular......Some think it is a blessing....but Sun is a Curse these days to many and that included you AJ, as ye well know. Precisely why I would never have a Farm, nor wear the shorts.
years ago when I was young all the locals lived in black wooly singlets ,hilarious when they took them off, didn't wear hats and didn't get cancer most lived to 80's. Only person I know with skin cancer lived in town and hardly ever went outside. Today I think it's going to be more prevalent, that's now we wear hats and sunscreen.
My sister in law used to fly to Sydney and operate on Aussies with cancer on ears, she didn't think much of those caps people wear today.
All I can say is, take your shirt off (your untanned "white as" body) and work in the hot sun here in NZ for a day with no sunscreen, then do the same in the US or UK. What you'll find is you'll get a tan in the US or UK, in NZ you'll get admitted to hospital with sunstroke and severe burns.
but we used to, my father and his brothers were permanently tanned. Shorts and singlets all year, all lived cancer free, yet I'm going to need some bits cut out soon and I always wear a hat long sleeves etc. Tractor has a cab, windscreens are all UV protected, bike is side by side with cab. I literally spend hardly any time exposed to full sun compared to my parents and relatives. My father sat on a tractor with no cab, no ear muffs, no hat, midday, cutting hay, or whatever, never worried him, deaf as post mind you, partly army rifles etc. He was in tanks for a bit, even ACC didn't bother to dispute that.
Much as personal experience can be very helpful most of the time, it's virtually useless in this case. You are basing your beliefs on a poorly structured clinical trial with perhaps a few dozen patients - you would never do that if it wasn't you 'conducting' the study.
Because if you were born in the 70's, it wasn't until the 90's it was identified CFCs etc largely contributed to the hole we now have. Likely your parents generation largely worked under the cover of a functioning ozone layer.
Personally, I think it's much more likely to be diet and lifestyle related. We know that poor insulin control causes poor healing, compromised immunity and high inflammation in the body. We know that in western countries, ethnic minority populations have higher life style related illnesses than the originally native populations (higher levels of obesity, diabetes and heart disease). Several studies have show that we all have adaptions to the diet and lifestyle that we evolved to eat but also have certain predispositions towards weight gain and endocrine dysfunction depending on what we are best adapted to. There was not a massive obesity crisis in Polynesian cultures until they started eating our hyper palatable and high GI foods. Same is true of Mexican and African American groups in the States.
If it was vit D related we would see ethnic minority children, also turning up to the same ratio higher than adults do. Because an ethnic minority child would have the same vit D deficient (if that was the causal factor). However, it takes years of eating high GI food before the human body usually starts to suffer endocrine dysfunction. Which is why T2 diabetes was always caused "adult onset". Sadly now, because of appalling diets and obesity in toddlers (given bottles of sugary drinks from birth) the stress on the endocrine system is starting much earlier and we are seeing T2 diabetes happening much younger. Nonetheless, it is still a lifestyle illness, caused by what we eat and how we choose to live. The first cells in the body to become insulin resistant are the fat cells, and this happens usually 10 full years prior to anyone ever having an abnormal blood glucose reading. If you are overweight or have visceral fat, your fat cells and some organs are more likely to already be inflamed and we are back to the inflammation correlation to compromised healing.
I feel bad saying it, but all the pictures of the ethnic minority staff who have died in the NHS were overweight and very obviously in the waist measurement ratio for higher risk of heart disease and diabetes.
We already know that heart disease and diabetes are highly correlated to higher mortality from the virus.
It may have something to do with the "advice" to lower cholesterol.
Vit D is made just under the skin by the UV light interacting with cholesterol and producing Vit D.
The lower your cholesterol the lower your Vit D level will be.
Trying to lower the level of cholesterol to the one recommended by the medical fraternity is one of the worst recommendations ever made.
Don't forget that every cell in the body needs it and a large part of the cholesterol is stored in the brain and spinal cord.
I don't disagree that there are other factors, Vitamin D would only be part of the puzzle. I'm not sure where you are going with talking about children - I am not saying anyone with inadequate Vitamin D will end up in Hospital, just that it is likely to worsen outcomes. This disease is essentially only killing older people (with a few tragic exceptions). The same applies to your observations about the staff - if you're young enough to still be working and die from this disease, chances are extremely high that you have co-morbidities, most commonly obesity, diabetes and/or heart disease.
Black americans are dying at 3x rate of others, and are also about 3x more likely to have vit D deficiency than other phenotypes. Seems to be a decent chance that there is a causative link. just as there likely is for 'flu season' which could be mostly due to winter Vit D deficiency: https://vitamindwiki.com/tiki-download_wiki_attachment.php?attId=13690
Sensible to take Vit D if you are not getting sun every day, no downside, and possibly quite a lot of upside.
Only reputable death estimate is that which gives EXCESS over the norm.
NZ unlikely to present this any time soon.
Cannot be sure that deaths given as 16 in NZ are actual attributable to CV19, as counting and what is counted depends on the person having cause of death as CV19, which depends on testing them before or after death. People in care homes not tested, despite being , we are told, most vulnerable.
Financial Times in UK has yesterday published set that excess deaths in UK in one week, were 75% over usual.
That is, the official figure is 17,500 and projected figure is 41,500
So, when WHO etc report, add 75% to their death figures.
Similar exercise been publ re Italy also.
Several ex colleagues of mine in the UK have lost 1/2 - 3/4 of their patients in residential care to the virus. March/April are not months you expect to see high death rates. Most of the staff also contracted it (but recovered). None of these deaths were counted in the John Hopkins or worldometer numbers.
Yep something smells fishy with their numbers. They seem to have either done exceptionally well at stopping it in its tracks, aren't testing enough to pick up unknown clusters or are fudging the numbers. Whichever it is, we need to apply the precautionary principle when thinking about opening the border again.
Each State in Oz is different.
Oz looks like it does contract tracing big & better.
Was running ahead of us in closing borders (and encouraging us to do so).
Maybe we should compare nz to one or against all the individual States.
Nsw has 8.0m
Vic has 6.5m
Old 5.1m
Sa 1.7m
Wa 2.8m
Tas .5m
Yes.
Running ahead. Morroison locking the country and saying how he is talking to Ardern to keep the 2 countries borders aligned.
https://youtu.be/lfMnOZEoPws
3:16.
Then later in the day, NZ followed suit.
Ardern, later that day followed suit and announced border closure.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318284
Remember it was an unusual evening announcement.
This was posted on here at the time, in real time.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/australia-closes-borders-foreigners
"With the majority of the cases originating overseas, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday all non-Australian residents would be barred from entering the country from 9pm (local time) on Friday.
In neighbouring New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the same measure almost simultaneously, with the ban on foreign arrivals there beginning on Thursday evening."
And SFM was definitely pissed that lil ol NZ forced him to interrupt his sunday thouights and prayers to play catch up here.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/aust-mirrors-nz-travel-restrictions
As I said their response has been comical, disjointed with all the states issues.
Remarkable their stats have been very similar to ours / per capita.
It is interesting that traditionally Republican administrations decentralise government, that considered being the opposite to the Democrats. You would have thought each State should have been accorded responsibility entirely to run their own ship with the Federal government over the top with support both financially and logistically, using airforce transport to run supplies out etc. Not so with Trump though, his ego going on megalomania has destroyed any chance of a structured national response. Of course his trademark has been to create chaos, that is his stamping ground after all, and now that is what he has got on an even grander scale. QED.
There were no "supplies" to speak of to run out to the states. It was a Solomon like situation. For some strange reason the 50 Public Health Agencies throughout the country as well as the Federal Agencies had never prepared for a Surge of PPD's, Ventilators, or Drugs. There was no capacity to surge these items and no of the Agencies had stockpiled them. What did come from Federal supplies is what the military had set aside for biological warfare to defend its troops. Why pandemic planning did not take into account that the supply base was all offshore in China and could never ramp up is a mystery and an epic fail for all concerned. The cost to citizens and country is and will be unimaginable. Even the CDC failed for 4 wks with their test kits.
I'm sure the country would have taken the actions they did finally take in March, if they had the information they needed in February. For some bewildering reason it has been little reported but arguably the biggest screw up of the century was the failure of the test kits shipped to 150 Public Health Agencies all over the US on 6 February by vaunted Center for Disease Control in Atlanta. Because the test kits failed and were new ones unavailable until well into March this was the "known knows" on 1 March as reported by Axios on 5 March: • New York confirmed its 1st case of the coronavirus on Sunday 1 March, 2020.
• The US has 86 confirmed cases on 2 March 2020.
• More than 3,600 people around the US have been tested so far, Azar said.
• US health authorities are investigating a Centres for Disease Control and Prevention lab initially tasked with producing coronavirus test kits in the US, according to multiple outlets.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-us-government-fumbled-coronaviru…
https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test
Tks TY both posts. Sorry state of affairs. Caught with pants down & can’t pull em up again. We lived a few years about 2 hrs drive south of NY. During that time was almost over awed by the industrial muscle, infrastructure etc, and the military presence, what they had outpoured & constructed in WW2 but at the same time the wastage and corruption accompanying it all was both apparent and quite shocking. What you have advised part of all of that of course. Have to wonder if the country is just too damn big to manage.
Wastage & Corruption you described is an "East Coast" thing. In the Hearland a very different picture (save for Chicago!). Remember a New York supplier came out to Minnesota in the 80's to see my father about a particularly bad product failure causing his largest customer to stop ordering car loads of product. The VP wasn't there to advisethe problem had been fixed, but instead he inquired "what's this Purchasing Agent need?- vacation-cash-women, etc. Wasn't the solution by father was looking for, and instead he dropped his "East Coast supplier". And as for current efforts in the Heartland it is reported the Mayo Clinic in collaboration with University of Minnesota is rolling out Covid-19 test kits on their own. They will be able to shortly test 20k per day. That's the difference with Federalism. The power of 50 instead of the dependence of only 1. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/22/in-breakthrough-announcement-m…
OZ have been a lot tougher than NZ when it comes to breaches of social distancing, a lot of instances fines dished out early.. Walk around where I live and its just like a normal Saturday...people gathering in garages having a drink, cycling together, walking, I would'nt say they were 2 meters apart. Level 3 will be worse as people get over it, there be a couple of hundred surfers out in waves together, hunters will go back country together, so really a bit hit and miss as the goal posts change by the day.
Dont they have tasers.
How this idiot didnt get shot with all these hyper lone rangers sighting down the barrel is beyond me.
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/tasmania-police-detained-knife-wielding-…
Everyone is jumpy
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414779/man-shot-by-police-in-south-…
Looks like, they desperately need a reset. Lots of money gone. The word is it's been "wasted" but probably worse than that. Having people like the John's brothers as part of the scene is not a good look with their drug and also team group sex history with a young NZ girl.
Channel 9 doesn't want the season to go ahead, there us little chance of advertising revenue and for fans watching empty stadiums with desperate commentary trying to inject excitement it's been described as like kissing your sister.
email from one of our suppliers yesterday, airfreight used to be $20-$80 per order. The new cost scale is 30% of the value of the item being shipped.... we are often airfreighting in orders in the $1000s. Also no returns now too for errors. Also what was a 1 - 3 week lead time is now 9 - 12 weeks. These changes alone will impact businesses.
Airfreight has been operating on spot pricing, so we can't even provide an estimate to Airfreight something. DHL might be a different story has they have their own fleet.
And yes the lead time is correct, we had a client request a rate to Airfreight some gear out of Israel. The estimated lead time to Airfreight was more than double the lead time via LCL Seafreight. So you effectively pay a premium for the privilege of waiting twice as long for an item to arrive.
We import a lot, mostly sea freight, some DG's. Airfreight we do ex Aussie has basically tripled in cost, sea freight - we can not move DG's at all right now, and ex Aus, our seafreight costs have doubled, ex China plus 50%. We bring in stuff ex Israel too, I concur on the shipping times, the lanes are empty, half the movements at half speed. Luckily we are seasonal, low season is winter, time to plan.
FYI, Hong Kong had zero cases on one day - Monday.
"Following a March spike that accompanied the return of numerous Hongkongers from abroad, the city’s daily tally of infections has dropped into the single digits, where it has held steady since April 12, with zero reported on Monday for the first time in nearly two months."
On Tuesday, despite the signs of improvement, officials announced the extension of most social distancing rules, including the shutting of bars, gyms, beauty salons, massage parlours and karaoke lounges, for at least two more weeks.
"Hong Kong confirmed four new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, including a child of two, bringing the city’s total infections to 1,033. All four had recently returned from Britain."
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3081068/…
It's the incoming travellers that are taking it in and responsible for the new cases. It only takes one asymptomatic infection in the community to restart the infection count in the wider community.
Harbin in China in lockdown.
1) https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1253521499920592896
2) Patient zero - https://twitter.com/SGCFin/status/1253526963811016708/photo/1
The worst PMI report is from Japan where their April PMI index is under 10. And the Bank of Japan is preparing to "go nuclear".
I suppose we can just add this latest "stimulus" threat to the never ending list of failed BOJ policy actions - graphic evidence.
If you build on sand...
We started to believe our own B/S, the economic system we were running died a while back, we were like Wylie Coyote running on air. If you replace what is real, like a family borrowing every week to cover the shortfall, it eventually catches up and disaster follows ,or at least reality catches up. Debt is not the same as money.
I think this shut down has been a disaster, we should have protected the most vulnerable, otherwise business as usual. It's going to take years to rebuild and I don't think we have the intrinsic wealth to do it.
That's a big frustration.
The ommissions and or the "numbers" we are told with no context, or the number is the delta.
The PPE stocktake announced this week. You mean there was not one before, or is it in response to masks from reserves (10yrs old) found to have now be perished.
- hint if stores are so old to be wasted in store, sounds like no stocktake, no inventory cycling.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120912601/coronavirus…
Resources, what have we got, where is it, what do we think we need, how do we address the difference.
Anyone with a teenager knows about "lies of ommission"
Say the same for the track & trace system, it was never there.
Fascinating insights into masks and getting PPE into Australia.
How the PM and Health Minister were across it since February.
Make your own comparisons.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mask-diplomacy-the-battle-to-se…
Australia had just closed off its borders to Chinese visitors, one of the measures put in place to try to halt the spread of the deadly coronavirus, and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Health Minister Greg Hunt knew a shortage of much-needed equipment was coming.
In February, Australia's national stockpile of personal protective equipment, already depleted by the summer's brutal bushfire season, contained only 20 million N95 masks. By April 24, the stockpile had tripled to 60 million masks. Three thousand ventilators were also secured. Australia now has one of the highest testing rates in the world, with about 500,000 tests carried out so far. One hundred million more masks are now in reserve for a pandemic that Australia has, to date, suppressed.
Where did they come from?
The USA is facing economic collapse and the rest of us will follow. It's just not possible to build an economy on outsourcing to low cost/slave labour countries. You lose the jobs and the skills then what? we expect to fill the void with weekly welfare payments?
Most of us would have used our heads and self distanced.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/an-unemployment-rate-of-23percent-the-r…
Movement in and out, especially in, of the country will need to be strictly controlled until such times as a vaccine is available or we know more about this thing. Again, our lack of knowledge about it, and how it may behave in the future, may well prove as dangerous as it being among the population now.
I have avoided talking to my wife about the subject, she calls every day and they should be able to sort Zoom out.
A friend purchased a boat before all this he's in the Med somewhere, talk about timing. He's by no means wealthy but purchased 10 acres in local town 7 years ago for 180k most of his money, ran foul of local council when he started building, made temporary accomodation and camped in luxury( you can do that, i was impressed).
Sold a section off for 180k, two years ago, then rest for 200k, last year. Went to UK, hunted around, purchased a 45 ft boat and learnt to sail, I think he got a good deal so he still has 200k left. He's given up on woman so his money should last him for 25 years especially if there is a pension, by then he's going to be 80, he's not the sort of guy looking to live forever , but better.
History also tells us plenty about pandemics and what happened to those who did not take quarantine measures. Not to mention the psychological impact of it all, which in actual fact, will always be the much more dangerous risk to GDP and the global economy. Sentiment is fundamental.
For instance, before there was mandated business closures in the states, there was wide spread reports of rapid declines in revenue, people were still able to shop, eat out but they weren't. One American hairdresser who usually had 45-50 customers per week, has only 5 BEFORE the lockdowns. None of the comments here ever talk about the Behavioural Economic factor of Depressions. Once societies develop a deep enduring fear of the future, a "recessionary mindset" can take over, it can go on for much longer than the economic fundamentals would suggest.
Or what about how much worse all aspects of depressions/recessions and crisis can become when citizens do not trust their leaders and feel that they are mismanaging the situation and how that contributes to the mentality of "every man for himself". During every crisis ever known, the people cry out for more paternalism and intervention, if none is forthcoming, the outcomes can be worse. Paternalism is not what we want in normal times, boom times, more often than not. But in wars and crisis we choose more autocratic leaders. If you understand human psychology this is very predictable. When people are scared, they want to feel safe.
Thucydides describing the Plague of Athens in 430BC describes how the previously law abiding, rational and devout Athenian society descended in to chaos and crime, they abandoned the temples, their friends, neighbours and all morality. And yet, now, in modern times, with much greater understanding of neurology and the interplay between the frontal lobe and the amygdala... many commentators on here, completely fail to mention or even consider the pscyho-social impact that a poorly managed pandemic would have and how much worse that could be than anything you have yet seen... before the lockdowns we most certainly had begun to see the looting and hoarding every man for himself behaviours. Clearly governments are aware of this and you can see many of them using behavioural strategies to manage us.
And yet, in the descriptions of the Great Depression, violent crime did increase at the very beginning (predictably during the highest point of fear and panic) but then rapidly lowered. Certainly times were bad, but it was not an era of moral destitution and the collapse of the rule of law.
It is my belief, that whatever the governments of the world did or didn't do, we would experience a severe recession in response (global debt levels and failure of central banks to achieve any real growth over the last 10 years). The question you all fail to consider is why a severe recession can become a depression. A depression is not simply caused by the severity of the recession and the fundamentals, it is caused because of a psychological change in peoples expectations and hopes for the future. Loss of faith in their governments ability to help can be a part of that, experiencing mass deaths, not knowing who has the virus, who doesn't, could also.
A part of the problem Andrew is people. I've said this before; there is a sector of our societies, people who blithely blunder through life , blissfully believing bad shit only happens to other people! These are the ones who are a threat to the rest of us. They drive stupid, drink stupid, act stupid, and think they are bullet proof to some piddling little bug they cannot see. When cornered they will deny, deflect, and blame! This goes beyond calculated risk, and is a pattern of behaviour. The evidence of this bug is that they only have to be close to someone who has it, but that is enough. Ultimately the law needs to become somewhat harsher with these ones.
I agree Andrew. The most vulnerable in our society have been being neglected for quite a while now. Instead Governments have sucked up to the money. I struggle to get past what Chris Trotter reported Mike Moore bringing to the then Lange Labour government about not being able to piss off the business owners and banks. That attitude, while not necessarily overt, is never the less clearly apparent even today, at the extreme expense of ordinary people. NZ is probably less bad than other places in the world, but our size means even a little is a lot. I hope Robertson's 'reset' actually has some substance in this direction.
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said today on CNBC Squawk Box “ when the government is called upon to protect you on the downside, they have every right to regulate you on the upside” SO CAPITALISM IS CHANGED. This applies to all our corporates who received enormous amount of money as subsidies and they have to pay the higher tax when they go upside with revenues, instead of forcing more tax on individual.
Here we go, companies not suppose to receive subsidies $$$$
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121238152/coronavirus-dozens-of-family-t…
The Martin North/George Gammon talk yesterday was quite good. Martin, being an ex-banker, doesn't hold back on his thoughts wrt debt/property ponzi.
Yes. If you subtract rest home deaths, those with health issues etc, the death rate per 1000 plummets. Tragic but true. Our shutdown has been one of the most severe in the world and even under level 3 is punitive. Three cases yesterday? And the PM spent much of yesterday’s press conference explaining why hard pressed families could now hunt for food, and why the duck ‘hunting’ season would be delayed. Ms Ardern, the economy is collapsing because of your government’s draconian measures, and you waste time on such trivial issues. Perhaps ‘floundering’ should be added to the list of permitted activities.
From the FT looking at the dollar and cents of it. Two thirds of those dying would probably have died this year anyway but can people live in a society that does not attempt the effort?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/8a863b2b-1f6e-4c33-b4e5…
Best read I have seen on the quandary. Politicians have unenviable decisions to make.
So why has the government made it illegal to use a vehicle to go hunting. Its a nonsense. How do you get the meat out to feed the family? You can only carry a carcase so far. They have lost me on this. I have pigs rooting the hell out of quite a few paddocks. We have been doing our best to pick them off over the last month. Knock one off in one area, they move somewhere else and wreck more pasture. The bike is important to get to those areas. Are they really saying we shouldnt be doing this? Dont they have bigger issues? Its pathetic. Like any rural person is going to give a rats anyway. Wasted words wasted time wasted energy. Concentrate on the important stuff please.
If recreational hunters weren't knocking the pig populations down, NZ would struggle to farm. The US and a lesser extent Ozzy have huge pig issues.
I've been chatting to mates who hunt and we agree this lock down is going to have a massive impact on pig and deer numbers.
It’s a very common tactic that’s been refined by politicians since Roman times. The apparent distractions indicate this government and other governments around the world are lost for what to do. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t. How easily have the government distracted the rural community and hunters in general yesterday? COLFO saw localised hunting allowed as a U turn by the government. I see it as a tactical concession to appease hunters. A little carrot to nibble on however the carrot was planned in the first place.
If level 3 is prolonged and the government can’t sort out mandatory quarantine at the border, ringfence the elderly/vulnerable and Resume some ‘normal’ business activities then we’re in for the worst depression in known history.
Tragic how we couldn't protect our borders nor protect our rest homes. Meanwhile the PM gives us helpful dining advice.... ""I would just encourage consumers, all New Zealanders who may be looking forward next week to accessing take away food ... to look at your favourite local eatery – and I do encourage you to support local businesses – and just look at whether or not they offer delivery directly themselves."
Fiddling and Rome?
Pietro your so-called 'economy' was doomed anyway. Near-term, at that.
It was based on exponentially-increasing extraction, consumption and throwing- away of past of a finite planet. How long did you think that was going to last?
You so-called 'economy' has been in terminal trouble for a long time. If it was capable of endless growth, it would be able to withstand this in the blink of an eye. The fact that you're in trouble after only a few weeks, tells me you were somewhat fragile
I’m not in trouble. Well placed, self sufficient - well mostly - in power, water, waste disposal and veges. Work from home, too. I don’t know your model, but it would imply sacrificing a huge swathe of the working population who make things for, or service, our throwaway society. So, we’re talking necessary ‘evils’, real world solutions, not some utopian vision a la the noble savage. I think we’ll muddle through for a while yet. Lots of good people with good solutions.
Just got to look to Sweden, twice the popn of NZ and they havent had draconian lockdown... they have 16,755 cases and 2021 dead. So lets imagine half those in NZ - 8,375 cases and 1011 dead - so about 1000 more people dead right now..... Hmmmm 3 times the road toll in a few weeks.... I dont think there are too many options. I for one am happy that we have such few deaths and such few cases. Not so happy that I wont have a job but those fruit trees we planted 10 years ago are looking like gold right now and the vege garden productivity is going to increase 100% in the coming months... if I can wean myself off screen life. Yes, we will have 25% unemployment but maybe we were headed there anyway.
NZ’s problem was that our creaky health system was seen to be overwhelmed very quickly by CV19 and as has been revealed tracking ability was wanting. All the existing conditions that overload our hospitals etc have not gone away. Sweden may have decided their hospitals etc have the extra capacity. Also there is a ledger for every Swede reporting alcohol consumption. An excellent vehicle for tracking on hand then one would suggest.
If you assume 0.5% death rate for WuFlu, then Sweden has has perhaps 400k infected, and probably has 20x that number (30-40k dead) to go to achieve herd immunity - would take about a year at current death rates. I doubt their political resolve will hold.
An interesting comment I heard the other day - people with high-transmission lifestyles, jobs, hobbies etc get sick soonest - so as time passes the natural R0 drops away as a matter of course, even if people don't modify their behavior.
Just got to look to Sweden, twice the popn of NZ and they havent had draconian lockdown... they have 16,755 cases and 2021 dead. So lets imagine half those in NZ - 8,375 cases and 1011 dead - so about 1000 more people dead right now..... Hmmmm 3 times the road toll in a few weeks.... I dont think there are too many options. I for one am happy that we have such few deaths and such few cases. Not so happy that I wont have a job but those fruit trees we planted 10 years ago are looking like gold right now and the vege garden productivity is going to increase 100% in the coming months... if I can wean myself off screen life. Yes, we will have 25% unemployment but maybe we were headed there anyway.
It’s not about just deaths and not just CV19’s. The concern was and is our hospitals were already overloaded. People still have cancer, are having heart attacks,strokes and accidents. So if the hospitals are full of CV19 patients what happens to them, how many deaths might that create in turn.That is why the very first government message was to have the elderly stay at home as they would be the likely CV19 admissions. It is also why for example the MOH finally got off its butt and rushed the completion of the ER in Christchurch through.
I can tell you. My close friend works in Oncology in Melbourne (you might have seen me mention on here that members of the public had been stealing the wards hand sanitiser). Well, a few weeks later, several of her cancer patients contracted the virus on the ward and died, all the staff were sent home and the ward was closed. It has now been converted into a Covid-19 ward and she, and all the other staff who previously worked on the oncology ward have been moved to other wards. That ward is no longer admitting patients for cancer treatment.
The ignorance on here of the people who do not understand how many *more* people will die OF ALL OTHER ILLNESSES AND INJURIES when the hospital is riddled with the virus is astounding.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/victorian-coronavirus-death-in-m…
Aye Gnj, this the first basic fact that anyone with any perception would comprehend. Yet the majority here and a whole array of famous media personalities don’t even give it a second thought. It is the most obvious, understandable and important factor on which the government based its decision(s.)
I agree that lockdown is a massive economic issue. However, the comparison is NOT between no lockdown and economy tracking as normal, vs. lockdown and the economy suffering.
Both options (lockdown / no-lockdown) will suffer economic hits.
Under no-lockdown, we have:
1. Tourism hit on GDP still occurring
2. Economic effects of an unknown but potentially large number of deaths, illness, hospitalisation, trauma etc., and the disruption this would cause.
Remembering that at the start of this NZ lacked the capability to effectively test and contact trace to the extent that was necessary.
"I think this shut down has been a disaster, we should have protected the most vulnerable, otherwise business as usual"
https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Gail Tverberg has been hammering that point since January
ham n eggs,
Sweden, with twice our population, now has over 2000 deaths. Can I assume that this is the price you would have been prepared to pay to keep the economy going? If so, that is a perfectly reasonable viewpoint, but I think you need to make it explicitly.
Hi link later.
It isn’t as simple as that. Sweden’s figures need to be compared to other countries. I think they’re doing better than the US, Italy, France, Spain and the UK with much less economic dislocation. A severe depression will cause many deaths, both directly and indirectly.
You have no evidence for this at all. Economic Depressions are hugely psychological. It is what happens when during a recession people give up hope in the future and the recessionary behaviours become entrenched and enduring, preventing future growth.
The pandemic would have triggered a recession regardless of government response. We had barely recovered from the GFC, just a butt tonne more debt, higher asset prices and clearly some very vulnerable business models, this will have bearing in the degree of this recession, it's not as simple as lockdown or not lockdown! Sweden's unemployment is up to 8% already.
The question is not whether there will be a deep recession. The question is... what is more likely to cause populations to react to the deep recession with the enduring psychological mindset that causes an economic depression. We don't know if lockdowns and preventing hospitals being overwhelmed will lead to a quicker bounce back or not. But we certainly cannot present the false premise that lockdowns caused the recession and led to recessionary deaths.
Unfortunately GR is not the person to lead an economic recovery. Example let us know your Shovel ready projects...lets put it in the media, already infrastructure NZ has grave concerns that it is stalling, with AGAIN no detail on the model of funding from central government or local government. I posted yesterday that they should maybe cap any redundancy payments tax rate to 10.5% to help the thousands about to be made redundant. Target those who going to be in desperate need.
Were you around in CHC earthquakes PA, the response and activity on the ground was within days, if not weeks. The construction sector was instantly in action hiring new people and had a plan...something GR has no idea of. But I suspect he will be trying to reinvent the wheel rather than use platforms /models already used, as he never thought of them.
Hmmm - CHCH rebuild as an example? Not sure if that holds up in the light of the day. I think it was a complete debacle which they are still paying for today (EQC botched repairs). Been down there and the highlight was the seagulls nesting in the ruins of a high rise.
Fantastic piece there. I saw the Unite Union come out against Burger King for the same type of Private Equity drawing any cash or assets out of the business and now there is nothing left. I could think of multiple NZX companies that have done buybacks and now are in strife. I bet no shareholder in Apple is complaining they have $300b in cash reserves now will they
Think of it as an investment
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/415016/simon-bridges-leadership-qu…
You are right, and there is no avoiding it, anywhere in the world. And in saying that, I would rather be trying to deal with that reality WITHOUT a nasty virus taking over the health system, and causing god knows what, down the track, nasty effects.
I am just about 100% sure we are doing the right thing.
Smokers 'four times less likely' to contract Covid-19, prompting nicotine patch trials on patients.
New testing suggests 1 in 5 New Yorkers already had Covid-19
Coronavirus dies out within 70 days no matter how we tackle it, claims professor
Just a few headlines from today’s Daily Telegraph.
China is in deeper trouble than elsewhere as it doesn't have the economic resiliance of west, it was already teetering on brink of vast economic damage with immense zombie loans and housing bubbles massively worse than anywhere else in the world. And they are struggling enormously with ongoing isolation measures doe to high density urban centers and near universal reliance on public transport. The difference is they are censoring the hell out of all media - but their situation is dire.
True enough, but an unsavoury advantage though. Up goes a double layered bamboo curtain. Up goes the intensity of the sweat shops, up goes the numbers of slaves in the penal camps. Only way to stop this is for the rest of the globe to reduce dramatically their reliance on Chinese products and production on their behalf.
If what you say is true and I suspect it is then what will the communist party of China do about it?
1. Apologise and resign?
2. Ask fr help from other countries?
3. Quietly dither as most OECD countries will do?
4. Blame someone else and start a war as a distraction?
If war who will they invade - Australia / Korea (North and South) / Russia / Taiwan?
They can’t start a war. The USA still has more firepower than just about the rest of the world put together. And then behind that, there is Nato. Strategically they would have huge challenges in rapidly overcoming Sth Korea, Taiwan and Japan with conventional weapons and without them out of the way cannot move south or west. I suspect the go ahead for the rearmament of Japan is imminent. And if they go nuclear, well everyone cops it and retaliates,
India, Pakistan.
20% of NY population is about 1.7 million, recorded deaths around 16k, so around a 1% fatality rate from that data. Many possible confounding factors - are NY recording deaths at home or in care homes or are they missing from the recorded deaths? Are they recording just deaths 'of' coronavirus or including deaths 'with' and overcounting the true impact? How many more deaths are 'working their way through the system' at this stage to properly compare with the 20% number? Is the data source I drew my population number from talking about the same area (and therefore population) as the source I got my death numbers from? Who knows!
Those US job loss numbers and the whisper I heard about massive local unemployment registrations here bought the lyrics of The Boss ""Downbound Train" to mind
I had a job, I had a girl
I had something going, mister, in this world
I got laid off down at the lumber yard
Our love went bad, times got hard
Now I work down at the car wash
Where all it ever does is rain
Don't you feel like you're a rider on a downbound train
Live version for the listen https://youtu.be/mXFBTzpxglk
Sunshine today. play games with the kids, full shed of firewood and full pantry. So far so good.... frugal is on the way but maybe not today.
pdk,
If we are to be more self-reliant, then we must surely and immediately, stop the loss of any more productive land in areas such as S. Auckland.
I would be very wary of anything like a national food authority, but I doubt if we can just leave it in the hands of the market. What would you do?
Stop it yesterday. As I would have stopped the stupid sprawl onto the Taeiri, down my way.
Leaving things in the hands of 'the market' merely lets the fattest cat devour the rest. And urban will always out-bid rural, while the farmers are screwed into being 'price takers'. So we need rules. Which some seem to object to :)
Ray Dalio with his latest article. Most of you know about the money and debt cycle, but still worth a skim read.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio?trk=eml-emai…
Australia and NZ may be one bubble in future and may help to revive some activity but may not help Travel Agent Industry as most booking for domest and to Australia is done online.
Worst hit are Airlines and Travel Agents besides Activity providers / cafeterias as the volume required by them to break even may not be enough by domestic or Australian tourist unless volume increases significantly.
Above are few worst hit but their are many other small and medium business that may have to shut shop and will know when we enter level 2.
Unemployment and Loss of Business going future will decide how much and hiw long the pain will be.
My travel agent does help me in planing and getting best deals for me but more important gives me lot of options to choose from so am happy though I know many prefer to do it themselves but is true that travel industry will take a blow more than any other industry.
True to fairytales, this fairytale of eternal economic growth has a very dark ending.
So now that we've been forced to take a look at what's necessary to survival, and what's just smoke and mirrors, will anything change? Will we be a more sustainable people going forward or will the self-serving interests of billionaires tucked away in their underground basements emerge when the dust settles and continue pied-piping the world's lower and middle class off a cliff and exploiting virtually every resource, both renewable and non-renewable to do it?
Can I ask when NZ unemployment and business activity will be reported?
I saw Christchurch retail spending figures on Monday showing hospitality and accomodation was down 97.6%, clothing, footwear and department stores down 98.9% and the national average on all spending was down 53.4%.
Edit: for the week ending April 12th, compared to the same week last year.
Lets face it the "terrain warning" debt hazard buzzer has been squawking for a while. Add in a "black swan" event in the form of Covid and the financial stupidity of protecting bank debt at the expense of sanity has become cruelly exposed.
Options - do what Iceland did in 2008 and let an asset reset/bank wipe out take place (Iceland was BAU after only two years BTW), OR, continue to support the biggest bubble in history and ensure the future debt enslavement of our children/grand children in favor of leverage junkies and bank profits.
What will you vote for this year?
"Unprecedented collapse".Nothing feels safe to me now. Peer at the horizon and I think I can see smoke. Loss of expected wealth ....loss of expected freedoms. Total takeover instead of revolution?
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/23/the-seven-step-path-from-pandemic-t…
Here is a thought experiment with an example.
Here is the one story told two ways.
IMF have put out forecasts for countries this yr and next due to covid19 and reactions.
What way is "correct". Comment below.
The NZ media omitted to provide any comparison, no proximity, no comparison across the imf work.
Why?
While tests and fatality are compared between countries, for this suddenly not, rather the nz media report the IMF nz forecast as compared to other forecasts of NZ made by NZ groups.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/the-great-lockdown-sh…
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121019785/imf-expects-new-zealand-econom…
Hint.
Here is what is omitted.
New International Monetary Fund projections show the depth of pain New Zealand's economy will feel due to the coronavirus, forecasting a contraction on 7.2 per cent this year.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook, released overnight, says the spread of COVID-19 will shrink the global economy by three per cent in 2020 before a major bounce back in 2021.
The IMF believes New Zealand will see the biggest fall outside of Europe, except for Venezuela, an economy already in freefall.
Australia's forecast contraction isn't far behind at 6.7 per cent.
Countries that New Zealand regularly compares itself to are also in for their fair share of pain.
The United Kingdom (-6.5 per cent), Ireland (-6.8 per cent) and Canada (-6.2 per cent) will all shrink before rebounds next year.
THE GREAT LOCKDOWN: IMF PROJECTIONS FOR GROWTH
Australia: -6.7 in 2020, +6.1 in 2021
New Zealand: -7.2 in 2020, +5.9 in 2021
UK: -6.5 in 2020, +4.0 in 2021
Canada -6.2 in 2020, +4.2 in 2021
Ireland: -6.8 in 2020, +6.3 in 2021.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.