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OECD says NZ banks must diversify away from short term foreign funding

Posted in News

The Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) has released a report on New Zealand's economic situation, criticising New Zealand households' "meagre" savings rates and warning about further fiscal expansion. It recommended a decrease in the corporate tax rate and said New Zealand's banks needed to diversify how they get funding. "Households' indebtedness reached 160% of disposable income "“ and, in aggregate they cut their saving, possibly in the mistaken expectation that ever appreciating house prices would fulfil their future savings needs, notably for retirement," OECD economists Alexandra Bibbee and Yvan Guillemette said. "As already meagre personal saving fell further and business borrowing increased strongly, even healthy corporate profits and steady government surpluses were insufficient to finance booming private consumption and housing investment. Hence, much of the financing came from abroad," Bibbee and Guillemette said. The economists argued that New Zealand's banks needed to adapt and diversify away from this dependence on short-term foreign borrowing.

"The banks, though fundamentally sound, are heavily reliant on foreign borrowing, much of it short-term, and must adapt by diversifying and lengthening the maturity of their funding," they said. The report said New Zealand should focus on improving productivity and needed to focus on the production of tradable goods and services. "New Zealand is paradoxically at the forefront of the OECD in adopting policies in many areas that have been shown to lead to high per capita income, and yet it still ranks toward the bottom end of the OECD's productivity league. This performance has many natural and hence unavoidable causes, such as the economy's small size and geographical isolation. But the root of the problem is a structural deficiency in the capacity to produce tradable goods and services," the report said. "The crisis should thus be seized as an opportunity to push forward the nation's productivity agenda." The report also noted that New Zealand's regulatory regime, still of generally high quality, was falling relative to those of other OECD countries. On the policy front, it made several recommendations to improve investment and productivity, including bringing the corporate tax rate down to "at least" match the OECD average. "It should also shrink gaps between the company, personal, trust and portfolio investment entity rates to reduce investment distortions and shift the tax base away from income and towards consumption and immobile factors, including housing." The report made the recommendation that Government should sell off some state-owned assets in the drive to increase public sector efficiency. "There should be a focus on raising public-sector efficiency by curbing growth in public expenditures and subjecting existing and new programmes to a rigorous cost-benefit test that takes into account the economic costs of raising tax revenue. Raising public-sector efficiency also means limiting government ownership and spending to core sectors and divesting assets in non-core sectors such as electricity generation and transport." "Government ownership should be reassessed to spur competition...and beneficial infrastructure projects should be undertaken." "Infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in roads, electricity, and telecommunications may have discouraged investment and constrained productivity growth."

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Interesting that they acknowledge in

Interesting that they acknowledge in one breath that although we have been at the forefront of adopting neoliberal market prescriptions in our regulatory environment, we still rank in the bottom of the OECD for productivity, due to "... many natural and hence unavoidable causes, such as the economy's small size and geographical isolation."

In other words, we did all the right things regards opening up the regulatory environment to market competition - but becuase of our population (size) and out-of-the-way location (geographic isolation) - not enough players came to the party and our productivity wained.

So, doesn't that kind of contradict the suggestion that we "should sell off some state-owned assets in the drive to increase public sector efficiency."

I mean, if private sector competition hasn't so far served our productivity stats well - due largely to our size and geographic isolation - is the same ol same ol prescription just tranferring more natural monopolies/duopolies to equally unproductive private ownership?

The rest of the para

The rest of the para reads "But the root of the problem is a structural deficiency in the capacity to produce tradable goods and services," the report said."

So, in context the comment is saying NZ never followed through on the strategy of encouraging productive growth in the domestic economy through developing industries and companies that export goods and services, instead NZ larged it up on non-productive investment in property and government.

Thanks Labour.

But I agree with your

But I agree with your question about flogging assets into private ownership who are going to screw the domestic customers and ship profit offshore a la Telecom.

A bit more competition would be great as would be ownership by domestic players including retail investors.

Savings are only "meagre", not

Savings are only "meagre", not to worry, the RBNZ will soon bash that into the gutter.
Ocr slash to 2%, bank deposit returns follow fast and goodbye to any reason to save.
Inflation at 3% so they tell us but it's probably more than that and whatever returns you get are also taxed.
So a 2.5% return less the tax which is at least .5% and less inflation, at least 3% !!
what's left. Geez what a way to go.
Don't save kids, it's a mugs game. Go out and buy cans of beans and stuff you can store away before the prices go up.

Hmm what would the same

Hmm what would the same sensation seekers say when they look at the NZ perspective of the economy and discover we are winnig the battle,surprising they have not looked at our recent and current export figures.

And here in lies the

And here in lies the problem.

"But the root of the problem is a structural deficiency in the capacity to produce tradable goods and services," the report said."

The New Zealand people want to own TV's, cars, all the latest gadgets etc. But we offer the world nothing in exchange for those goods.

New Zealand can be likened to the rich family who owns a house filled with fine china and silverware etc. The family no longer owns the means of production that produced their wealth and they are maintaining the outwards appearence to all the other families on the block that everything is fine, in the mean time they have been selling the china and the silverware to fund this lifestyle. This can't continue for ever eventually you will run out of china and silveware. On that day reality sets in, go ask the people of Iceland what its like when reality sets in.

Expat, private investors chose to

Expat, private investors chose to invest in property....they chose to invest in hedge funds...this is a common failing throughout the developed world and not unique to NZ and not Labour's fault....Real businesses have not been returning the huge amounts gambling in other areas has seen, but also the losses...this isnt a tax issue....its a greed issue of ppl believing they can make lots of money without really producing anything.....

regards

This report stinks of right

This report stinks of right wing free market idealology....

They also state "Steep declines

They also state

"Steep declines in global commodity prices, potentially amplified by a revival of export subsidies in other countries, are hurting farm incomes and reducing the overvaluation of farm properties. Unlike most previous recessions, which tended to start in the business sector, this one is dominated by a drop in household demand. Balance-sheet adjustments imply reduced consumption for as long as it takes to unwind excessive leverage. A second stage of the cycle is now beginning, reinforced by the downturn in global trade."

Wow that sounds contradictory to Tony Alexanders and his employers spin on land values.

"for as long as it takes to unwind excessive leverage"

Are they talking about the dairy farmers in my community several who are paying over $30,000 a week in interest,yes its not a typo, $30,000 a WEEK.Apparently our banks dont believe they have excess leverage,then who the hell has, there are worse out there?

Its like your car has been hit by a high speed train and we are arguing over the best way to fix it up,new headlights bit of polish. Step back, its been totally destroyed.Time to get another.

Wally, China is doing the

Wally, China is doing the same thing with Copper, so they would be in good company...

The report is almost identical

The report is almost identical to treasury recomendations highlighting the need to shift our tax base away from our transient and ageing work force and more towards consumption and housing. This means an effective capital gains tax and estate tax is on its way.Reducing our reliance on foreign funding is common sense we need to end our reliance on overseas credit that artificially inflates our house and farm prices.

Our biggest problem is our international competitiveness when it comes to income, this is where we are sadly lacking and need massive improvement. Removing trade barriers and encouraging free trade with China is only going to take us down the same path as them- a Low income, Low Consumption country slaves to High income High consumption countries.

We should be learning from Norway, they are similiar to us in size and resourses but have the second highest level of GDP/capita in the world with very high levels of capital investment and government ownership of industry which proves going down the private ownership path isn't the answer.

On selling assets, maybe NZ

On selling assets, maybe NZ doesn't need to sell onshore assets to trim the budget. I am not sure if NZ owns many of the buildings it currently has embassies in across Europe, but does it really need to fund an embassy in Belgium, France, Netherlands, Spain & Italy. Why do we have an embassy in Sweden? These places are all a short hop from each other and to be honest if the quality of staff in the overpriced, over decorated Haymarket are anything to go by they do not represent good value for money by any stretch of the imagination. The level of service is appalling. Currently applying for my Brit passport and will not bother renewing the Kiwi again - the home office in Croydon is infinitely more efficient although somewhat shabbier. Sell that overpriced, over staffed and under worked NZ house and ship the lazy buggers out to Haringey (rent would be much cheaper and at least the staff would gain some street cred).

Many of NZs economic problems

Many of NZs economic problems are historically based. NZ never seized the opportunity like our neighbour did when a massive pool of qualified Europeans wanted to emigrate at the end of WWII.

Historically Britain in the 1800s expected NZ to have a population of around 10 million by mid to late 20th century.

Instead we have a small population that has infrastructure problems throughout the nation and a miserably small domestic market that stifles much economic growth.
While it's nice to live in a clean/green environment...we need more bums on seats to create economic wealth and I think we missed the boat.

Kieran If only we had

Kieran
If only we had the similar resources of Norway.
They have a current account surplus of USD83 billion due to sitting on Europes biggest oil reserves. This raises their GDP / capital a bit.

I think you are confusing Norway with Finland and Nokia

I'll read the whole report

I'll read the whole report when I get time, but that looks like another dose of much needed common sense.

"....New Zealand is paradoxically at the forefront of the OECD in adopting policies in many areas that have been shown to lead to high per capita income, and yet it still ranks toward the bottom end of the OECD's productivity league...."

I am picking that each nations problems with productivity are directly connected with the diversion of investment into a housing bubble that each nation experienced. I do not have the time to look into this, but I bet that Germany not having a housing bubble kept their productivity right up there compared to all the nations that did have one. And I pick that NZ has the worst problems with productivity because it has the worst housing bubble.

It also never ceases to amuse me that the OECD and some other international analysts continue to rate NZ high for economic policies, and regard our poor performance as a "paradox", when all they need to do is take a closer look at things like our RMA, LGA, and the consequent massively delaying processes; and also our workplace hiring and firing law. Changing those things will be important, along with attacking corporate tax and changing taxation incentives in favour of productive investment, work and income.

Kate: ".....I mean, if private

Kate:

".....I mean, if private sector competition hasn't so far served our productivity stats well - due largely to our size and geographic isolation - is the same ol same ol prescription just tranferring more natural monopolies/duopolies to equally unproductive private ownership?..."

WRONG. Private ownership is not "equally unproductive". It may be under considerable government policy-induced unfair disadvantages, but it is never as unproductive as governmment.

# jill Says: April 17th,

# jill Says:
April 17th, 2009 at 7:35 am

"Hmm what would the same sensation seekers say when they look at the NZ perspective of the economy and discover we are winnig the battle,surprising they have not looked at our recent and current export figures."

Importing less due to the downturn, exporting low-added-value value commodities. Not the long term solution.

steven Says: April 17th, 2009

steven Says:
April 17th, 2009 at 8:12 am

"Expat, private investors chose to invest in property"¦.they chose to invest in hedge funds"¦this is a common failing throughout the developed world and not unique to NZ and not Labour's fault"¦.Real businesses have not been returning the huge amounts gambling in other areas has seen, but also the losses"¦this isnt a tax issue"¦.its a greed issue of ppl believing they can make lots of money without really producing anything"¦.."

Steven, it is the fault of governments everywhere it happened.

That doesn't make Labour right.

Had Don Brash got to run NZ in 2005, NZ would have been one of the few countries that actually might have avoided the worst of this folly.

wally Says: April 17th, 2009

wally Says:
April 17th, 2009 at 6:12 am

"Savings are only "meagre", not to worry, the RBNZ will soon bash that into the gutter.
Ocr slash to 2%, bank deposit returns follow fast and goodbye to any reason to save...."

You are exactly right, Wally, and Reserve Banks all over the world are going to be "pushing on a string" as long as their governments fail to address the causes of housing bubbles.

Kieran/Neville This from Wiki on

Kieran/Neville

This from Wiki on Norway;

Norway is the world's fourth largest oil exporter[8] and the petroleum industry accounts for around a quarter of GDP.[9]

Norway also has rich resources of gas fields, hydropower, fish, forests, and minerals. Norway was the second largest exporter of seafood (in value, after China) in 2006.[10] Other main industries include food processing, shipbuilding, metals, chemicals, mining, fishing and pulp and paper products. Norway has a Scandinavian welfare model and the largest capital reserve per capita of any nation.

Norway was ranked highest of all countries in human development from 2001 to 2006.

Wow - 2nd largest exporter of seafood and fourth largest in oil. Point is - we most likely have a larger EEZ than they do - we just haven't patrolled it, explored it and managed it as well, I suspect.

Start digging in the Southern

Start digging in the Southern Ocean ;)

I lived with a girl from Norway while we were studying in Auckland. With all her govt grants (thanks to that lovely oil revenue), she was paying the same as me for her education in NZ and I'm a Kiwi studying at home, while she's an overseas student (oddly, she was doing her masters in English).

Incentive for students to go for higher education (post-grad)? In Norway, you bet.

Alex

Neville we have potentially massive

Neville we have potentially massive amounts of oil and gas reserves in our oceans as well maybe even bigger, but unfortunatly we don't have a state owned oil company exploring and extracting it like Norway does. They invested massive amounts of money in the 1960's and are now reaping the rewards of that investment. I guess it was similiar to our 'think big' oil projects except they didn't abandon it like we did. Look at how well the projects we did stick with are doing-marsden point refinery, the aluminium smelter, Cluthas hydro power etc.. maybe we need a few more think big projects.

Yep Kieran and Alex -

Yep Kieran and Alex - you're onto it. I have first hand experience in central government - there really was no getting beyond they ideology that the market would do everything for us as a nation. Same ideology applied to Fisheries and Mining - create tradable property rights instruments (Fisheries) and market-based allocative mechanisms (Mining) and transfer responsibilities for governance functions (e.g. R&D and compliance) to the industry.

Government as a passive entity merely clips the ticket - it has no role in driving the train - unless of course Maori try to get on board, in which case you move through the station at full speed.

Kieran Says: "I guess it

Kieran Says:
"I guess it was similiar to our "˜think big' oil projects except they didn't abandon it like we did. Look at how well the projects we did stick with are doing-marsden point refinery, the aluminium smelter, Cluthas hydro power etc.. maybe we need a few more think big projects"

You are on to it.

One of the things that helped in the 30s...REAL infrastructure building...but we have RMA that cost damn near more in legal fees than the end project...IF it EVER manges to get through...NZ is strangled by bureaucratic BS, PC fringe groups with more influence than should have and a higher education system that wastes millions on some 60% failing to even complete yr 1 of a degree....
The latter, tighten entrance requirements, then take that money and subsidise student loans on completion of the degree based on A or B passes...Those top 'brains' and those who work hard have nil or small student loans...And if a degree/qualification is not completed ...the loan has interest added.
We live in a society that rewards the mediocre, promotes the Average, and fails to reward excellence. Get this right regardless if private enterprise or Government owned, and NZ will be productive.
The OCED is stuck on band-aids rather than fixing the source of the problem.

Australian Commentator Alan Kohler casts

Australian Commentator Alan Kohler casts his eye towards New Zealand in this article..... Titled "Sinking across the ditch"

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Love-thy-neighbour-pd...

I gotta say I thought

I gotta say I thought this was the most amusing bit:

"New Zealand is paradoxically at the forefront of the OECD in adopting policies in many areas that have been shown to lead to high per capita income, and yet it still ranks toward the bottom end of the OECD's productivity league."

Why do you think that is?

No, not me being amused, but NZ not getting the 'formula' to work?

Let's take the, "such as the economy's small size and geographical isolation." as a given and think beyond that - otherwise let's all move to Auz which is only 3 hours closer to half the world than us, only 5 times bigger, while we are the same size as Singapore, and only second behind Saudi Arabia in terms of natural resources per capita.

Why?

We can do how later.

Steven, The government encouraged housing

Steven,

The government encouraged housing investments through LAQC's and loose money.

I do take your point about people choosing to make these kinds of investments however given the situation thats what they thought was best (wrongly as it turns out).

Your comment about the OECD report smelling of a right wing agenda - well, perhaps it does to you to others it seems that sensible given the appalling decade of government spend up large on non productive goverment sector.

expat - As you are

expat - As you are UK based I was interested to read your recent comments about kiwi expats and potential returns to NZ given that some economists are talking up this factor here
Just out of interest roughly what percentage of your kiwi friends / contacts are looking to return to NZ shortly as a result of the economic crisis?
From what you were saying the % sounded pretty low

Matt, was talking about this

Matt, was talking about this with a Kiwi mate at lunchtime as it happens!

We arent seeing many Kiwi's head home although there are always those that do for a variety of reasons.

Australian Commentator Alan Kohler makes

Australian Commentator Alan Kohler makes a few comments about NZ in his segment on the ABC news. About half way through this two minute or so YouTube clip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw6JCRtxfZ0&feature=channel_page

Re Oil and Resources and

Re Oil and Resources and State Owned Enterprises and "Think Big".

Notice how the private sector is always required to run under completely different constraints to the government. Muldoon just "did it". But he would never have allowed the private sector to "just do it"; and neither will we today, with our RMA and LGA and all the rest of it.

Notice that when nations like Venezuela under Chavez and Iraq under Saddam "nationalize" the oil industry, the results ultimately are chaos and failure. Norway's government might be able to do Oil exploration and extraction and all the rest of it. Are we completely sure that the NZ public sector would be able to? There is also risk associated with commodity values falling.

Who believes that the cost to the taxpayer of the NZ government doing anything commercial in the past, like building dams and running railways, was justified compared to if we just let the private sector "do it"?

I have always found Milton

I have always found Milton Friedman's case for governments simply being unable to do anything efficiently, to be convincing. There are a few things we let them do because they are the only ones who should do it, efficiently or not. $400 toilet seats for the military or the Police, is one result. But $400 toilet seats for a State owned transport operator, say, would be an inexcusable burden for the taxpayer.

PhilBest - can government's do

PhilBest - can government's do some things better than the private sector? -check out the World's safest banks 2009;

http://www.gfmag.com/admin/mods/abmRepository/root/Docs/2009/safest_mid_...

Top three all government owned.

There is absolutely no doubt

There is absolutely no doubt that state owned enterprises run just as efficiently and effectively as private enterprises, The big difference is that public good can be taken into account as well and not just profit.
The success of the economy depends on using our resources (including money) for the benefit of New Zealanders. The private sector is not investing at the moment so the public sector has to. Private banks in NZ are heavily biased towards housing and are happy to pump massive amounts of overseas funding into it, how has this helped New Zealanders? Our economic uderperformance is because we have invested far too much in housing and not enough in productive assets. Its got nothing to do with private versus public ownership.
We will only turn things around by changing our financial systems so that investment money flows into business assets (public or private) rather than housing. Until we do this we will keep dropping down the OECD ladder.
We have been in recession for almost 2 years now what has the government done? absolutely nothing!! what infrastucture projects are we building? Are we building a cycle lane yet? Are we putting in fibre optic cables? Any new electricity generators lately? are we planting forestry? new oil rigs? Meat, milk or timber processing plants? Railways? nothing is happening and nothing has changed we are still putting all our money into overvalued houses. The Government is sitting on its backside doing nothing hoping it will all blow over. What have they done exactly? Tax cuts that were going to happen anyway and a talk fest now proven to be just that.

Kieran - good points re.

Kieran - good points re. "Private banks in NZ are heavily biased towards housing" and "we have invested far too much in housing and not enough in productive assets." As we know. See:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/16/analysis-bank-p...

Where Bernard completes an analysis to show the banks aren't gouging, but leaves me thinking things arn't about to change re. your points and if anything they have got worse, also, as we know.

Kiwibank solution discussed more here:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/16/special-report-...

plus see remainder of thread.

Good comments on those threads

Good comments on those threads Les. Banks treat mortgage lending as less risky than business lending yet all the 'toxic assets' and bad debt are mortgages. I know from personal experience it's almost impossible to get a business loan from the bank, the only way is borrowing against the equity on a house. We need a 'Kiwi Business Bank' and a complete overhaul of our tax, education, legal and financial systems to be pro business. We also need to start building more infrastructure, the lack of any progress or action by National is very dissapointing.

Kieran - yes, it's pretty

Kieran - yes, it's pretty obvious the sector being gouged is business debtors, little analysis is required, but in completing one Bernard has collaterally provided extra confrmation. As for tax payers taking on the risk, yes we are and are still not getting a fair return of favour from the banks, or government, because they are sitting on their hands and not doing a jot about it. Jawboning and 'tea at three' in the board rooms will have zip effect. It hasn't in the past, it won't now. It is especially annoying given many (sme owners/employers) are bearing said risk and being throttled with higher rates in the process - if only they could get the subsidy other clients of the banks (and the banks) enjoy - the absence of capital gains tax. If that changed then banks would have to view the risk premium differently. However I see no cold days in Hell forecast as yet, so a Kiwibank solution would seem the simplest, pragmatic solution. As for the tax payer risk arguement, we'd get a better deal in terms of economic security than we are at present by simply baling/guaranteeing the banks and expecting the benefit to trickle down. In that regard a mate sent me this:

"Dear Mr. President,

Patriotic retirement:

There's about 40 million people over 50 years old in the work force [in the US] - pay them $1 million apiece severance with the following stipulations:

1) They leave their jobs. Forty million job openings - UNEMPLOYMENT FIXED
2) They buy NEW American cars. Forty million cars ordered - AUTO INDUSTRY FIXED.
3) They either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - HOUSING CRISIS FIXED.

Like I have been saying, they are bailing out the wrong people."

It seems this wit is also wisdom and we'd be smart in NZ to learn something from this sentiment and ensure we are baling the right people - that is, 'sme New Zealand.' Because expecting the banks to trickle down the favour they've been shown just isn't going to happen with what we have in place now.

The Neo-Cons who have all

The Neo-Cons who have all the clout at the top OECD like they do every other international institute and most governments bureaucracies are saying to NZ become a colony of the borderless banking empire or suffer economic sanctions that will send you back to the dark ages. The problem being the adhering to their blackmail sends a majority of our citizens there anyway.
In standing up to these slaveminded mongrels there is a lot to fear, nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Cant expand right now, just back from computer free family holiday and have to get back on the hamster wheel 3am in morn.
Good evening