By Bernard Hickey
With 64 days left until the September 20 election, here's my daily round-up of the political and governmental news from in and around Wellington on Friday, July 18, including the latest poll showing Labour's support would be much higher without David Cunliffe as leader.
The Stuff/Ipsos poll published overnight showed support for Labour would be 13.5% higher if Cunliffe was not in charge.
That was not the 'Cunliffe effect' the party hoped for when he was selected last year.
The same poll showed support for Labour at 24.9%, up 1.7% from a month ago. A Roy Morgan poll released this week showed support for Labour at 23.5%, down 4.5% to its lowest level since November 2011.
"Privately, Labour and the Greens now acknowledge that it would take an unprecedented swing against National to force a change of government on September 20. Some Labour MPs were yesterday privately canvassing leadership options, even at this late stage," Fairfax's Vernon Small wrote.
"But they believe Labour would be even more severely punished by such an outward sign of panic," he said.
The poll found 1.7% of existing Labour supporters would drop their support, but it would gain 15.2% support from other parties and undecideds, a net gain of 13.6%. That would increase Labour's overall support to 38.5%.
The poll found that support for National would rise by a net 7.1% if John Key was no longer the National Leader, with 5.3% of National supporters leaving and 12.4% joining from other parties and undecideds.
The poll did not name alternative leaders and it assumed any new leader would be no less supported than the current leader.
'A sick and slow lemon'
Meanwhile, NZ First Leader Winston Peters called for a full Ministerial Inquiry into the Interislander ferries after KiwiRail revealed the extended Aratere's new smaller propellers had made it 15 minutes slower per crossing, forcing a rejig of its schedule.
"The ship coughed and wheezed its way to New Zealand when it was bought, and has been spluttering ever since," Peters said.
"Even after major surgery in Singapore it is still sick," Peters said.
New Zealand First will celebrate its 21st anniversary at its annual conference at the Alexandra Park raceway over the weekend.
(Updated with more details on Stuff/Ipsos poll)
I'll keep updating this through the day.
See all my previous election diaries here.
See the index for Interest.co.nz's special election policy comparison pages here.
10 Comments
IMHO
Helen Clarke only got a top job at the UN. But John Key has much, much bigger plans.
John has worked in American in the all important Wall Street and has a property in the right place.
John was sent here with a purpose in mind
"John, show us you can run a political party, maintain high ratings in the opinion polls and win elections. If you can do that then we will put you forward as the Republican Presidential candidate"
Well he has certainly achieved those objectives, no problem. But it takes more than this to become President of the USA. You have to please the Corporates.
Urgency with the TPP, the GCSB shenanigans, Kim Dot Com, changing the laws for the film industry and much more.
It appears to me then that he has almost achieved all his objectives except for the TPP, but the pressure is on.
JK's ideal now is to win the election and sign the TPP.
Then comes the icing on the cake
JK gets a knighthood, WOW wont the Americans love that American President "Sir John Key"
Should we all be proud of John or should we be Very, Very afraid of a TPP signed in secret?
Yes indeed it does there GBH and that poxy little fatman Grant thingamybob will be wringing his hands all the way to the armpits,resembling some kind of bespectacled hemaphrodite.
Yes Cunnies in the dunny so to speak,prolly looking down the barrel of a change in vocation, but hold that phone because JK may yet slip in his own oil..........although to be honest he'd prolly have to die to lose it now.....
Damn it gotta go again...........I'll be back unlike Cunnie.
True , I really like David Shearer, he is an upright honest sincere Kiwi Bloke , who has a geniune affinity for people , and an honest and forthright manner .
Cunliffe is a sneaky bloke , who does not walk the talk , says he is concerned for the poor and downtrodden but lives far removed from his constituents
When Shearer said something , you believed him to be sincere , unlike Cunliffe who is full of cliches and politically loaded soundbites .
Cunliffes underhanded ruthlessness in the leadership challenge was not taken well by anyone .
Phill Goff was just hopeless
That said Boatman Shearer was guilty of being benign to the point of invisible.....in fact he complained to his psyche that everybody kept ignoring him....the doctor responded with "next please"
David S was the epitome of the nice guys finish....where..? and Goofy was a clod and a sulk....
deary me get set to have oil all over your albatross, cowshite clogging up your didymo,and bankers up to their elbows in your money.
Count ! ... my dear old thing , how spiffingly marvellous to see you back around the traps ....
.... having heard David Shearer speaking with Mark Sainsbury on RadioLive this morning , relating his experiences in the Gaza strip , it became blindingly obvious to me : Shearer is a quietly spoken guy with oodles of real life experiences , and a great dollop of commonsense ...
Shame on David Cunliffe and his co-horts who never got in behind Shearer 100 % when he was Labour Party leader .... they are now reaping the bitter fruit of their treachery ...
Shearer is the Labour Party equivalent of the Gnat's top man , Jolly Kid .... an even match , it would've been a great spectacle watching those two going head-to-head at the election .
Thank you GBH, I'll be a bit on the slow side returning as I'm still recovering, and so ,as and when I can manage it really.
Yes Shearer has ooooodles of real life experience and would make a great foreign diplomat or even Secretary of State but far too softly softly for the rough and tumbles of the circus that is Parliment.
Must say glad your still around to keep the troops in a positive frame of mind.
Talk soon Stay Well Mon Ami.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.