Here's my summary of the key news over the weekend in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a whole range of tussles reaching a climax.
But first, on Saturday the American unemployment rate and employment levels were reported. US employers ramped up hiring in September and the jobless rate fell to a six-year low, bolstering bets the Federal Reserve will begin lifting interest rates in mid-2015.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 248,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.9%. Not only were these better than the markets were expecting, the August data was revised higher as well. There is some momentum building in the US labour markets although neither the participation rate nor pay levels are improving much yet. But there are more people employed and markets liked that.
The immediate impact was to bid up the US dollar - and Wall Street rallied.
Moving south, up to 140 million Brazilians headed to the polls today, capping the first round of an unpredictable and often acrimonious presidential campaign.
And speaking of acrimonious. the Hong Kong protests are continuing - what is happening there could unsettle and reorient the Asian ambitions of a number of the big Aussie banks. Shanghai may seem a more stable base for them as China uses the instability to draw them in.
Back in Australia, their negotiations with China over a free trade agreement are near the final stage. The Aussie government is now demanding the same sort of deal New Zealand has "or they will walk away".
Also on a key trade negotiation, officials from the United States and the European Union say they have made progress as they seek to sweep away trade barriers. Teams from the two sides are ending a week of discussions in the US. If successful an agreement would create the world's largest free trade zone.
Note that it is a public holiday in Australia today, their Labour Day.
In New York, UST 10 yr yields rose slightly on Friday to 2.44%.
And the oil price fell yet again and ended the week under US$90/barrel with the Brent price down as well and just on US$92/barrel.
Gold also fell sharply and is now at US$1,191/oz.
We start today with our currency lower against the US dollar but level pegging against most others. The NZD was down more than 1c to 77.6 USc, is at 89.6 AUc, and the TWI is at 76.3.
If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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5 Comments
Where are all the jobs occuring in the US? Is it just seasonal?
I'm not hearing much from my US friends about rockstar times there either, no new mega-industries or breaking technologies.
The EUR has been steadly dropping with the US rise, It would be an odd looking world if they locked at unity, and decided to go common currency.... (a true oil backed dollar?)
There is extensive demographic, regional, and industry data on the latest jobs reports here. Just follow the links. It seems fairly widespread ... not concentrated in noticeable areas. It is not the one month result that is important here, rather the extended monthly runs above 200K/mth.
It's almost all private sector hiring. The only growth in the US public sector is for teachers.
full groundswell growth does not happen spontainously...
can you imagine the inflationary result? Could you imagine what that would mean to NZ if it happened here? And what RBNZ would do? in fact what the result of such widespread economic growth is going to mean for the US, and how that will affect us...
It is not the one month result that is important here, rather the extended monthly runs above 200K/mth
My favorite number is right at the top of the BLS table and it’s 155.9 million. That is the civilian labor force number for September and it compares to 154.9 million reported for October 2008 way back when the financial crisis was just erupting. The reason that rather tepid gain of 1 million labor force participants over the course of six years is important is that during the same period the working age civilian population (over 16 years) rose from 234.6 million to 248.4 million—-or by 14 million in round terms.
That’s right, the labor force grew by only 7% of the gain in adult population. That explains, of course, why the labor force participation rate of 66.0% back at the time of the crisis has plunged to a 36-year low of 62.7% in September. Or to put it another way, the employment-to-population ratio of 59.0% last month compared to just under 62% six years ago and 64.2% in the year 2000.Read more
There are reasons why the Fed pays 5bps for O/N deposits greater than NZs ann. nominal GDPE, via RP. View table
I wonder if others share my amazement at David Cunliffe's turning up at a Pacifica church yesterday , electioneering for their support in his bid to regain leadership of the Labour party ...
... is it just my opinion , or do others also regard DC's antics as appallingly ill thought out , too ?
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