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Dairy prices down -4.3%; US car sales jump; EU inflation rising; Greek deal near; India cuts rates; IMF changes tack; NZ$1 = 71.9 US¢, TWI-5 = 75.9

Dairy prices down -4.3%; US car sales jump; EU inflation rising; Greek deal near; India cuts rates; IMF changes tack; NZ$1 = 71.9 US¢, TWI-5 = 75.9

Here's my summary of the key issues from overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that dairy prices fell yet again overnight.

This time in the latest dairy auction they fell -4.3% in US dollar terms, down -2.2% in New Zealand dollar terms.

That is the sixth consecutive fall and prices are now -38% lower than this time last year (-27% lower in NZ dollar terms).

This is now the lowest these prices have been in US dollars in almost six years, although in NZ dollar terms they are only a 2015 low.

The uptick in prices, long forecast, seems as far away as ever.

In the US, new orders for factory goods fell in April as demand for transportation equipment and other goods weakened. But the May data on car sales was surprisingly strong, suggesting a stronger track for the American economy.

In China, their steel industry continues to weaken.

In Europe, inflation is rising - albeit very slowly. May prices edged up +0.9% excluding food and energy, up +0.3% including those items. That was above expectations and the highest rate in a year.

And Greece's creditors are close to finishing a final agreement to put to the leftist government in Athens, a source close to the talks said overnight. Eurozone leaders are meeting now.

And in a new twist to the debate between 'austerity' and 'stimulus', some senior IMF economists have said public policy makers should stop obsessing about debt levels and countries should essentially learn to live with high debt - although this is only interesting because of who has published it, not for any truly new perspectives.

In India, their Reserve Bank has cut interest rates for the third time this year to help boost growth in Asia's third largest economy. The central bank cut its key repo rate to 7.25% from 7.50%, after taking similar moves in January and March this year.

In New York, the UST 10yr benchmark yield jumped in trading today. It is now up another +9 bps at 2.27%.

The US oil markets are also a little higher today with the US benchmark price now just over US$61/barrel again, and Brent crude is up to over US$66/barrel.

The gold price is up as well, by $5 to US$1,194/oz.

The New Zealand dollar starts today well off its lows and is currently at 71.9 US¢ a whole cent higher than at this time yesterday, at 92.3 AU¢, and at 64.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 75.9.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »

Daily exchange rates

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Source: CoinDesk

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12 Comments

Why doesn't the NZ dollar fall when dairy prices decline like it used to in the past?

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Because a country's currency value is no longer strictly related to their real productive economy. More in tune with global investment movements & FX markets. NZs value is more as a small base of globally owned assets.

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We should sell a whole pile then :)

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Lol, many would. But we have the example right on our doorstep of what happens when you sell your assets, just look at the plight of Maori. The various dishonest methods used to obtain title highlights the importance of your means of production, and the measures people will take to get them. You can also see how hard it can be to get them back once ownership is lost.

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and this time we wont be able to go back and say we want it back ok we will take 1 cent on the dollar and call it quits.

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no cash, not assets.

print and sell a whole pile of NZD, use the proceeds to buy up foreign assests

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who would be dumb enough to fall for that...

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What's so dumb, Lets print some money just like everybody else in the world and then instead of giving it to the banks, we buy some US dollars, (Wow this could be called RBNZ currency intervention), we then use these dollars to buy assets in US dollars, we could then put these assets into the Cullen fund.
If people want to bid up our currency then lets see how much they want to pay us.

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It's actually because they have worked out how poor the market is going to _before_ our "experts" have worked it out. So the big players have already made their moves well before the rest of us get to hear about it. It's only the surprise or overly large movements which have noticeable effect.

The terminology is "that the market has already 'factored in' the correction"

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Astonishing

Joe Hockey: Federal Treasurer's response to calls to burst the Sydney property bubble

We are not prepared to help some by hurting others

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US car sales

Average loan term for new cars is now 67 months — a record.
Average loan term for used cars is now 62 months — a record.
Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 30% of all new vehicle financing — a record.
Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 16% of all used vehicle financing — a record.
The average amount financed for a new vehicle was $28,711 — a record.
The average payment for new vehicles was $488 — a record.
The percentage of all new vehicles financed accounted for by leases was 31.46% — a record.
You get the idea.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-02/auto-sales-reach-10-year-highs…

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The SS Fed Sails Into Uncharted and Probably Stormy Liquidity Seas

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/06/the-ss-fed-sails-into-uncharted-a…

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