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Population growth from migration jumped 12.5% in the year to October

Population growth from migration jumped 12.5% in the year to October

Population growth from migration continues to break all previous records, with a net gain (arrivals minus departures) of 70,300 in the 12 months to October, according to Statistics NZ.

That was up 12.5% compared to the previous 12 months.

The previous record net gain of 70,000 was set in the year to September.

"The record annual net gain in migration was driven by the increase in migrant arrivals," Statistics NZ population statistics manager Jo-Anne Skinner said.

"At the same time migrant departures decreased, adding to the high net gain."

Statistics NZ said 126,100 migrants arrived in this country in the year to October, up 6000 (5%) compared to the previous 12 months.

Over the same period 55,800 people left the country on a permanent or long term basis, down 1800 (3.1%) compared to the previous 12 months

Statistics NZ has released a more limited version of its usual monthly migration report, due to earthquake-related damage to its Wellington headquarters building, which has put some of its systems temporarily out of action.

It plans to release more complete data once its systems are fully operational.

Net long term migration

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94 Comments

Absolutely stark raving mad

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Move along, nothing to see here - did you hear JK talked to Mark Zuckerberg?

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Yeah, that John Key, so cool with his celebrity friends and world influence.

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I'd love to have a beer with him

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Nothing wrong with 70k migrants, we're all migrants in NZ, also the country is so very underpopulated

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..... except the overcrowding in our schools, housing and hospitals... and other social services. yeah, keep bring them in....... we will have the worlds cuisine at our finger tips, what a great deal ..... not!!!

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Easy to fix. Build more schools, housing and hospitals.

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The reality is quite different i.e. relative drops in funding to education and health. National want all the migrants but are unwilling to budget for the infrastructure.

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It might be a good slogan but I am not sure that is correct. Over the past three years education funding is up from $12.8 bln to $14.1 bln, a +10% rise. Funding for health is up from $14.6 bln to $16.1 bln, a +10.8% rise. Over the same period our population rose +5.3%. I think it is pretty hard to sustain an argument that there are "relative drops in funding to education and health".

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Looking at percentage increases of funding vs population increase percentages is overly simplistic. For example, between budget 2015 to 2016 the operational health funding increased from 14.7 billion to 15.5 billion. This increase of 558 million dollars is short of the 689 million required to keep up with population growth and an ageing population. (figures from Assoc. of Salaried Medical Professionals)

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Wrong DC, what about 3 years of inflation - not CPI inflation but actual inflation in relevant areas such as construction costs etc.

Immigration is making us poorer. Not only that allowing poor, unskilled 45+ year olds in who don't speak much English is not only a huge burden on the current economy but a massive one for our future health and superannuation systems. (Trust me there are a lot of "migrants" who fit this category - I see them at rental viewings and wonder what is going on??)

Also letting in hoards of young people without western education, without good English and without an understanding of how to act appropriately in a country like NZ does nothing to improve NZ, yet this is the exactly what we get under student visa categories, most also have no skills of value to NZ.

Trump and Farage are right.

Chaston and Key are wrong.

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Yes, but someone needs to get serious about getting more tax revenue to do so:

- stamp duty on foreign property investors
- CGT
- increase top tax rate

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Why not an immigration tax of $50-100k per person??

126,000 migrants = $6.3-12.6b PA??

That would make migrants more useful, rather than being an effective drag on the economy via needing all this capital infrastructure spent to sustain them...

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Interesting idea, but virtually none of our immigrants could afford it.

If we're being honest with ourselves, we don't attract the most financially desirable immigrants. We generally attract those who lack the attributes required to gain residence in the U.K., U.S.A., Canada and Australia. Most of our immigrants have very little money indeed.

If we implemented such a policy, new immigrant applications would evaporate overnight.

Golly. There's a thought. Let's do this.

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There is when there is a lack of housing and infrastructure to support the increased population.

Following your logic there is nothing wrong with 70k migrants therefore 700k is ok, how about 7m?

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One persons opinion. We should all be allowed an opinion on this. The problem being the government just wanting to shut the public's opinions out on this matter. NZ needs an open discussion on it's population and where the public want it it head in the long term.

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Its not just this matter they don't want public opinion on. This government has its head firmly nailed into the sand on every issue until the glare becomes blinding, then they create spin blaming someone else.
Im sure this Migration thing is all Air New Zealands fault. If they would just stop flying.

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Andrew Little.......I'm waiting? Will you ever step up?

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Clearly your answer then is overpopulate this land. Anyway, I guess as far as you are concerned NZ is simply a piece of real estate to be carved up and sold.

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The world is overpopulated so how the dickens can NZ be underpopulated.

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@ Yvil. Nothing kiwis hate more than immigrants telling us to leave the door open that we are underpopulated.
Why did you come here? If you want to live in a bustling overcrowded city go back to where you came from.
We Kiwis love NZ and don't like what is being done to our country. We don't mind being a sleepy little country in the south pacific where you can have a beach to yourself and live a relaxed lifestyle.
We used to have uncongested roads, affordable housing, access to free medical services, cheap land, evenly distributed wealth, national pride.
The new NZ isn't an improvement on who we were and how we lived. Most of the migrants I know are saying shut the door. The migrants I know have come here and embraced the lifestyle.
My observation is that the migrants who like yourself live in Auckland and tell us we need more people have embraced property ownership and want more people for their own financial benefit and self greed.

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The migrants I know have come here and embraced the lifestyle.

This has been my experience as well. Migrants want to come to a NW European style culture with an advanced welfare state that speaks English and has a high degree of personal freedom. Some I have spoken to have even been quite keen on my idea of developing the Anglosphere as a distinct federation - now that they are well established here.

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A new name for alt-right, no doubt, who are now open about what they are, racist and fascist. Please do not try to spread that rubbish around here under another name.

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The alt-right respects all races and nationalities. We think nations like Russia, Japan and China are great. In another article here Lee Jong-Wha argues the case for uniting Asia so that they can lead the world. Why not a united Anglosphere too?

Anyway PocketAces I thought you were going to ignore me? However I would like you to think about how you could achieve what you want for NZ. Wouldn't it require a high level of shared vision, a degree of order and discipline and dare I say it a bit of exclusion? You could attach different labels to these things and make them sound a lot worse. Your real enemy is laissez-faire globalisation and not true conservatives.

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Richard Spencer and his followers not racist? Who are you trying to fool, me and other readers here, or yourself?

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Richard Spencer would reject that label but would admit to being an ethnic activist. The real issue is the preservation of identity, something that all people throughout the world should care about. We don't want to be merely consumers in a world run by corporations. Handmaidens to all other cultures and minorities except our own. Especially if we are becoming more and more poverty stricken in material things as well as in spirit. We want to have a history, a now and a future that is connected.
Is it okay for individuals to run their own lives along these lines?

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Oh far out!! Kool aid much. Ethnic activist?! A rose by any other name.

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Sounds like sanitised racism to me. I doubt there are real facts that we are 'more poverty stricken' (in fact, the absolute numbers of poor in the world are at their lowest level since the early 1900s, and the % of poor has shrunk dramatically), or that we are 'poverty stricken in spirit' (global well-being surveys show otherwise). The corporations line is a crock too. It was way worse in the 1800s and 1900s, even earlier. (Remember the East India Company? or Standard Oil? These were corporations that really did control the world. Start their own wars, dictate to governments.) Spencer is just a excuser of racially-based separatism. The only folks who want to withdraw to their own mono-ethnic enclaves are those who feel they will be forced to share more fairly. Their views are reactive, backwards looking. They will find friends in Russia for exactly the same reason. Demographics can't be beaten and their recent rise will be but a footnote in history.

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"Spencer is just a excuser of racially-based separatism. The only folks who want to withdraw to their own mono-ethnic enclaves are those who feel they will be forced to share more fairly"
That, absolutely and utterly, is the crux of the matter. I am by no means an advocate of mass immigration into this country or increasing by large numbers our population, but I come from the point of view that the whole world is overpopulated, and surely we can come up with a better way to deal with it than war. There is much needs sorting, but first we have to confront it all

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I agree that "demographics can't be beaten". That statement kind of confirms that this is a known problem and something to be concerned about. I believe you really hope that demographics can be beaten, that it doesn't matter what the demographics are as long as we all remain calm and tolerant.

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Worse than that David, they are denying the reality of a crowded world. What I think they are really saying is that many immigrants bring the unpleasant parts of their culture with them. Take for example the Imam in the news recently saying woman need the permission of their husbands to do almost anything, and inciting fear/hatred of Jews and Christians. I wonder why he came to NZ in the first place? Because he saw it as safe? Then why is he trying to make it unsafe? He clearly considers himself as intelligent, but is unable to make the jump to understanding why NZ is like it is. Our egalitarianism, welcoming all, accepting of different cultures and opinions. However he must also know that what makes societies unsafe are attitudes and opinions that seek to oppress, engender fear or denigrate anyone for who they are or where they come from. If he cannot fit into that mold, then I would respectfully suggest that he goes back to where he comes from.

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Exactly murray86. If demographics is destiny then do we want that particular Imam's destiny? Saying that demographics is destiny is a call to build the wall.

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That is a downside of having a number of cultures in one place, but when my daughter and grand daughter went to Bollywood dance classes I couldn't help but think there is also a huge opportunity for us to enjoy the best of it all as well. We can but try, and yes, each "culture" needs to play the game and leave behind some things that are counter to progress in the world, and yes, speech like that makes my hackles rise (as did Brian Tamaki's the other day).

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It's a big world. You can always find a handful of outliers. (That doesn't prove anything. But it does provide oxygen for arguments on the fringe.) The important thing is to look at the main factors and try to ignore the sideline noise. The local example you note will evaporate without support and it is best in my view to just let it wither from the pulic scrutiny. He is no different in fact from the fake-news alt-right echo chamber we see in the US.

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I take your point David, but the problem is as an Imam he is considered a leader in his part of our society, and as we have seen in the US from Trumps statements, his statements and attitudes will empower others to hold them and possibly act on them, just as the Pope of the Destiny Church does (Bishop I hear you say, sorry I thought he'd promoted himself again!) Viruses start from small beginnings, and he will get support as Islam does have a cultural component that makes woman subservient to men (clearly he hasn't met too many women like my wife) and a political component that pits them against other religions that are seen as competing and threats. Considering their history i can't really blame them for their view of the crusades, but when living here I would hope the enlightenment would at least encourage critical thinking, or is that suppressed in Islam too?

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What chance is there that Brian Tamaki will "infuence the community" significantly? Zero in my view. Therefore we shouldn't suppress Tamaki, or any fellow travellers of the fringe. Their own extremes will undermine themselves. These views get traction only when there is real suppression of them. That's what unintented consequences of things like 18C can do.

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Yes you just nailed the concern I didn't mention. But if he is not given public exposure his views go underground, and may fester. I'd prefer the public debate, in the hope that he will become enlightened and educated.

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I actually agree with this. The concern was that the suppression was starting to escalate with the promotion of ideas like micro-aggressions, white privilege, excluding white people and attacks on normal patriotism like flying your own flag. Things seemed to be getting out of control. Naturally there was a reaction.

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To be fair the Crusades were an awfully long time ago and were preceded by 400 years of Islamic aggression and conquest that threatened all of Europe. Huge areas fell to them, all of North Africa, most of Spain and large parts of Italy.

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Agree Zac, but that is the "western" (they see it as "Christian") attitude stemming from the Enlightenment. But their history and culture still tells of the horrors of the crusades, and western encroachment into the middle east is to them, just more of the same. And let's not deny what the crusades did to them. Christian knights were exhorted to kill as many as possible, including women and children, and that that was their passport to heaven, much as we are told is the Islamic perspective today. Our problem as a country, society and culture is education. If we are to welcome them into our society, we must also make a serious effort to educate them out of some of the cultural mores that they bring with them. My earlier comment about critical thinking is important, getting them to separate their beliefs in God from the political and cultural mores that contradict those beliefs is required. That can only happen through balanced education. Attempts at religious conversion will fail, enlightenment may not.

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Yes, I saw that imam guy in the news last night - being un-kiwi - shocking

So shocking it is totally absent from the NZ Herald today - as of the AM

Silence called censorship

In todays Herald you can read all about yo-yo dieting, Kanye West, Victoria Beckham, Adele. Ellen deGeneris, all overseas cut-n-paste

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I am not about to let you get away with promoting racism and fascism. Conservatism is backward looking and because the human race's natural direction is forward, it won't last long.

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Really you are saying you are not going to let me get away with promoting conservative values. The Kiwi culture along with all Anglo culture mustn't be allowed to exist anymore.

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I think what PA is pushing back on is the wrapping up of race-based separatisim in 'conservative values'. That is actually a hijacking.

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Would rules that sought to maintain the racial makeup of a country be considered race-based separatism and consequently bad? For instance if you had an immigration policy that had quotas for different races with the express purpose of keeping a country's racial mix in balance? Most people would consider, as an extreme example, the sudden importation of several million people of a different race into a small country as inevitably turning that country into a completely different country..would they not?

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Keywords - hole, find, digging, stop. The only limiting measure is numbers.

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I was really only describing NZs's immigration policies of yesteryear. The Western world's strong position was a result of measures taken before the 1960s.

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No you cannot get away with sanitizing the truth. You can try it, but you are not going to get away with it.

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like theres going to be a housing collapse people keep banging on about, aint never gonna happen while John keeps the front door wide open...

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because immigrants are loaded with cash and they all come with intentions of buying?

Rental yields keep decreasing and rents are pretty much flat in Auckland, so whether there is temporarily more immigration or not won't prevent the property crash. And when that happens a lot of immigrants will likely leave the country because unemployment will grow and salaries will be lower.

In other words: it's not immigration comes to NZ therefore house prices increase. It's the other way around, house prices increase therefore immigrants come to NZ.

Immigration is a variable, but way more insignificant than what many imply. Cheap credit, tax loopholes, lack of returns in productive economy and a property-obsessed general mindset are more important factors.

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You're wrong. Research shows house prices FOLLOW population booms not the other way around.

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Is an immigration boom the same as a population boom ?
Id suggest wages are being driven down and people cant afford housing now let alone pay any more. Or they vote with their feet.
South is the new North.

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Simon, would it be reasonable to assume that you are property spruiker and wish to keep the flood gates open...for your own selfish reasons? Or do you think immigration is excessive?

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It's excessive in the context of aucklands ability to respond. That's what we need to fix. Too slow. Too little. And yes it is driving people out of auckland

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Out here in the regions we don't need more people. We can drive our own taxis and don't need fast food. We like our low population density, we like being able to score a feed of mussels off the rocks, we like our empty roads, we like our accessible medical facilities, we like being able to afford housing and to purchase land if we work hard, we like having a beach to ourselves, we like not standing in a que or sitting in a traffic jam, we like that we speak just two languages and that those two languages are becoming intertwined. Please don't think that we in the regions want or need more people. We don't!!!

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If New Zealand was managed right and the population kept to a minimum we would all have our own houses, a bach, a boat and an overseas holiday every year. I firmly believe that. If we did have jobs we weren't happy about doing guest workers could have been brought in from countries willing to supply them.

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maybe some of us should leave to make room,there would be plenty of volunteers if they would pay the super in other countries like australia where it cuts off after 6 months,that would free up lots of houses and relieve the pressure on the roading,hospitals etc;

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Was meant to peak 12 months ago.

Still on th way up.

Never in nz history have so many ppl arrived.

Area under graph is important, the longer it stays up the bigger this immigration boom is, already dwarfing 2001-2004 boom which was enough to double property prices though out all of NZ from 2001 to 2008.

Palmy still best valued real estate for mine; only 20% up so far, another 60% plus gains to follow over next 2-3 years

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Good point, the population chart on display at Te Papa hasn't been updated in many years and it's now so far off the chart they'll probably need to redo it on a logarithmic scale!!

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Fewer are leaving.
I would have a bet that most of those non leavers are recent arrivals slipping in as pseudo students with every intention of creating their personal family mini invasion.
Later on many will leave but without the oldie hangers on to occupy our elder facilities such as they are.

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I'll be honest. I haven't noticed an increase of people in Wellington. Where is everybody going?

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By the sound of it more than half end up in Auckland. Unfortunately

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But, where are they going in Auckland? - there's no room at the camping grounds - Paula Bennett is having to buy Motels for the homeless

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There isnt a supply shortage. There is (was) too much demand from house swapping speculators.

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Good for some who rely on social welfare and good for pensioners too.

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How a lot are low wage so are collecting accom supplement and WFF have you not checked government spending in these areas exploding over the last five years

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You'd have to assume from the public apathy on the immigration issue that most Kiwis don't really give a toss. Even when sitting in gridlock, watching their kids shut out from housing and seeing with their own eyes the infrastructure of this country drowning under the flood of people.
The government plays lip service by tinkering with the points system pending receipt of instructions from bureaucrats on what the new number should be.
Meanwhile we all shrug our shoulders, unquestioningly suck in without question the MSM supported propaganda that high levels of immigration 'are good for us' and whistle 'always look on the bright side of life'.

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They give a toss alright - and it's hurting - long time resident locals are leaving - getting out - because there is nothing they can do about it - they have no voice - there is no lobby group for them except Winston

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How do I give a toss?

Should I vote for the party that wants to let in rich foreigner? or
The ones that want to let more poor foreigners (refugees) in?

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I'm curious. On the one hand we are getting increased migration (which would imply an increased demand for housing) but on the other hand there is evidence of change in the housing market in Auckland - for the worse. For those who said that it was all the students and temp workers who were buy property I would expect the market in Auckland to be still going strong. Something doesn't add up or as Key would put it - it doesn't pass the sniff test.

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A lot of the 'immigrant' numbers comprise students right?
So the 'real', 'permanent', immigrant numbers are not nearly as high as they would seem.
I would be interested to know where many of the international students live - in terms of impact on housing. Anecdotally, based on my daily walks past many apartments, it looks like a lot are living in apartments in the cbd. The train I sometimes ride on that comes from the south seems to have a lot of Indian students (yes, many / most of them are clearly international students judging by accents, topics of discussion etc) on it, I wonder where they are typically living (i.e do a significant number of Indian families living here permanently, 'host' Indian students? If so, student 'migrants' may not be having such big housing demand impacts).

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It will be interesting to see the breakdown but I think the flows from UK, Europe and the US are starting to increase for obvious reasons. I am hearing they will have to raise the points level up from 160 due to the increase in applications.

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They already raised the points to 160 Penguin.

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You you re-read my comment I said They are looking at raising it above the current 160 point level. It wasn't long ago it was 110. In theory the quality is going up.

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For all the commentators who say that John Key is doing a bad job, there are a net 70'000 who think NZ is a better place than their own !

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It probably is, but Key is frantically working to see it isn't, by trying to overpopulate NZ. It won't be Key that draws them here, that is for sure.

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Yep good old John Key, keeping NZ a better place to live than India and China since 2008 - /wipes patriotic tear from eye/ - the bar has been set...

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Meh John Key.

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No. There are 70,000 people who are moving to where there are still some resources... but when SHTF you wont want them here.

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India and china is not bad place for rich people. It's better than any western countries.

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So we are just taking their poor then? Is that your point?

You couldn't pay me to live in either place. Though a few more decades of extremely high immigration and maybe NZ will start to resemble a cross between the two places anyway?

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I'm sure both countries aren't bad places for the 'rich'. Almost anywhere is alright if you are 'rich', unless you are living in a war torn, or ultra unsafe, or ultra polluted, country.
I'd totally disagree that either country is 'better than any western countries' though. General standard of living falls well short, in my opinion

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Apparently we have the largest proportion of foreign-born citizens than any other developed economy (Te Tirohanga Mokopuna,Treasury report) .
So at 70,000 pa thats 350,000 in the next 5 years, plus the natural growth rate, and all the temporary visa holders who wont leave... That will keep the housing demand up and wages down.
I am not a migrant, but i am not anti-immigration, it just needs to be at a much slower rate

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Well said. I support immigration in principle too, it's just the quantum is far too great. Should be halved.

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Cut it to zero until we get back to a long term average.
That should take out the next 20 years.

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How on Earth will we ever get out of this rabbit hole. NZ has set in place a global chain migration network that is seemingly unstoppable. Migrants stimulating consumption growth leading to need for increased supply of consumerables leading to need for more migrants to supply such and on and on and faster and faster. Yet all the while bugger all increase in GDP per capita. Talk about running faster to stay in the same place. It seems we are being ruled by the red queen!

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It's funny a lot of the comments I get from new immigrants is how NZ is unpopulated compared to where they have come from and they love that, won't be long before we start to lose that distinction . It's our strength and it's time to put quality over quantity back in place and make sure we are still the NZ that tourists love to come to for it uniqueness space and peacefulness, not the noisy smog ridden grid locked dumps some people call great cities of the world

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Absolutely. Japan, China, India, UK etc all have beautiful landscapes that rival NZ, they're just pretty crowded. No one will bother flying half way round the world to join the crowds, when they can see the same thing closer to home.

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Our whole economy is based on natural resources.
More people = less natural resources and land per person.

Our point of difference to date had been that our country was clean, beautiful, uncrowded, rich in the natural resources that matter the most and miles away from danger.

Why wouldn't we want to try and protect that?

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Remember NZ is the easiest place in developed country to get residency and also tax heaven so both rich and poor are on the way.

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there is plenty of room in NZ,but no infrastructure outside the main centres.we paid billions to chorus to lay the fibre but they didnt join all the dots on the map.towns with no banks,no doctors or ambulance and our recent migrants dont have a culture of volunteering.so auckland has to get overcrowded.

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Where are they all going to live? Auckland probably (well at least 60% of them). Everyone talking about a drop in the housing market.. but when you've got migration on that kind of scale year, after year.. that sure puts a lot of pressure on the housing market. For that reason, I can't ever see the Auckland market dropping (although it may simply plateau out).

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Interesting. From the article:

This is a strongly natural resource based economy. There is no sign – and no sign Treasury points to – that it has needed lots more people, and especially not in Auckland.

Supports my contention that if we had fewer people we would all be far richer.

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