A review of things you need to know before you go home Wednesday; Westpac raises mortgage rates, LGFA tender popular, truckometer slows, with retail spending and holiday stays, cows shift north, bigger surplus, swaps fall

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has followed ANZ and raised most rates for fixed terms of 18 months and longer.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society has raised a rate.

GOOD SUPPORT
The latest LGFA bond tender for $165 mln offered four separate maturities and was well supported with a coverage ratio of 3.89 times. The weighted average yield was 3.80% with the shorter maturities giving slightly higher yields than last time, and the longer maturities slightly lower.

SLOWER ON THE ROADS
Both ANZ Truckometer indexes eased in April, reversing lifts in March. Such noise is typical of monthly indicators, says ANZ. The Heavy Traffic Index fell -1.8% m/m, while the Light Traffic Index fell -1.5% m/m. Despite the dip, the Heavy Traffic Index continues to trend solidly upward. The upward trend in the Light Traffic Index has been less definitive of late, suggesting patchier growth in store. ANZ says they expect growth to ease as 2017 rolls on. "Capacity constraints are biting; getting skilled or unskilled employees is difficult. Credit is a bit harder to get. It’s not a bad thing – overheating can lead to engine problems."

SPENDING GROWTH SLOWS TOO
Retail spending using electronic cards was $5 bln in April 2017, up $218 mln or +4.5% from April 2016, Stats NZ reported today. That is a slowing of being up +5.6% in March.

LOCALS STAY AWAY
Guest nights in March 2017 dropped -3.1% compared with March 2016, as Easter moved from March last year to April this year, in more Stats NZ data released today. The Easter effect was most noticeable in domestic guest nights, which decreased -5.6% compared with the same month last year. The access to Kaikoura and parts of Canterbury is affecting these numbers too. If it wasn't for international visitors, the overall impact would have been greater. (Kiwi's are choosing offshore vacations more?)

POPULATION SHIFTS NORTH ? !
After a decrease in 2015, the dairy cattle number increased +2% in 2016 to reach 6.6 mln, Stats NZ said today. However, this was not back to the 2014 level (6.7 mln). The North Island dairy herd increased by almost 250,000 cows last year, led by a rise in Waikato. In contrast, the number of dairy cattle in the South Island fell more than 100,000 in the year to 30 June 2016. The results also show continuing declines for sheep and deer numbers, with beef cattle being relatively unchanged.

CHINA PRICES DIVERGE
A bit of heat is coming out of the sharp rise in producer prices in China in April. They fell month-on-month to be up 'only' +6.4% year on year. A slowing was expected but not by this much. Consumer price rises are much more tame, coming in up just +1.2% in April (+1.1% expected).

NO LONGER CLAIMING INNOCENCE
William Yan (also know as Bill Liu) has admitted money laundering of 'significant sums' stolen in China to a NZ court. He will serve his NZ sentence in a luxury Auckland penthouse apartment. NZ authorities will keep $15 mln of the $43 mln they seized.

THE SURPLUS BUILDS
The Government's accounts to March 2017, a nine month result, shows a surplus of almost $11 bln, while the OBEGAL reveals a surplus of almost $1.5 bln. These results are higher than for the year to February. Now that surpluses are building, no-one seems interested in this news anymore.

GAINING TRACTION
The pick-up in global growth remains on track, with disappointing first-quarter US GDP data offset by better-than-expected numbers in China, and sustained growth in the eurozone and Japan, says Fitch Ratings in its Global Economic Update report. This is another important trend that few seem interested in - probably because it is positive.

WHOLESALE RATES TRUMPED
Local swap rates have fallen today, down -2 bps across the board. This has happened even though UST benchmark yields rose in earlier trading. But then political risk intervened (Trump fires Comey) and markets went risk-averse. The 90 day bank bill rate however rose +1 bp to an even 2.00%.

NZ DOLLAR UNCHANGED
The NZD is proven unmoved by the Washington shenanigans and is pretty much unchanged at 69 USc which has been at this time all week. On the crosses we are at 93.8 AUc (as the Aussie is under pressure) and 63.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 is still at 74.1.

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