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A review of things you need to know before you go home Monday; TSB trims a mortgage rate, ASB raises three TD rates, service sector stumbles, car sales boom, a long fence, swaps drop yet again, NZD firms

A review of things you need to know before you go home Monday; TSB trims a mortgage rate, ASB raises three TD rates, service sector stumbles, car sales boom, a long fence, swaps drop yet again, NZD firms

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB Bank has trimmed its 2 year 'special' to 4.65%.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB changed its term deposit rates for terms of 6 months, 1, 4 and 5 years. The 6 month one is down -5 bps while all the others are up +5 bps.

O' OH ...
Unlike our manufacturing sector, our services sector had a surprising jolt lower in April. After months and months of persistent strength, the sudden drop in the Performance of Services Index raises an eyebrow. April's 52.8 result still indicates some growth occurred in the month. But in being a full six index points below March, to the lowest reading since late 2012, it points to a sharp slowdown in the rate of progress.

... AFTER A BOOMING MARCH QUARTER
But in the March quarter the retail sector was powering ahead. Sales in that sector rose to $21.5 bln in that quarter, up +6.7%, a gain of $1.3 bln from the March 2016 quarter. Leading the charge were the sales of cars - or more specifically SUVs, both new and used imports. These were up +5.9%. Food and beverage was up +3.5%. Electrical and electronic goods were up +5.3%.

TIGHTENING THE SCREWS
The squeeze is on. After hitting them with a new selective tax, the Australian Treasurer has instructed the parliament's Standing Committee on Economics to inquire into and report on a Review of Australia's Four Major Banks. Going after their major banks is a rare piece of bipartisanship in Aussie politics.

PULLING BACK
And staying in Australia, the level of debt being supplied for the purchase of homes is slowing fast. The value of debt supplied for the year to March rose only +2.3% while the number of transactions rose only +1.5%. The only bright spot was for new homes.

A VERY LONG WAY
Federated Farmers is reporting that almost 97% of waterways on dairy farms are now fenced off, and "the level of compliance for dairy effluent systems is at its highest ever, at a shade under 95%". This involves 26,200 kms of fencing. (The earth's circumference is 40,075 kms, as a point of reference.)

WHOLESALE RATES DROP YET AGAIN
Local swap rates have fallen again today and that makes it five consecutive days of sharp reductions. The two year rate has fallen -14 bps over that time and double that since the beginning of the year. The five year is down even more, -21 bps in five days and -34 bps in 2017. The ten year is down -18 bps in five days and -26 in 2017. The 90 day bank bill rate however is up +1 bp today to 1.99%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The NZD is still in its general range although with a slightly firming aura. Against the greenback it is at 68.8 USc. On the crosses we are at 92.9 AUc, and 63 euro cents. The TWI-5 is up slightly to 73.8.

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6 Comments

Trump needs our dairy farmers to build him a wall.

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How do Mexicans feel about Trump's wall ? They'll get over it

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I wonder what % of SUV's and double cabs are hocked , there must be an awful lot of debt being racked up to buy these unnecessary vehicles

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Good point. In the US this is the new subprime...

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Interest rates still on a medium term lowering track.

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New Zealand has slashed its forecast for Chinese tourist spending over the next six years, denting growth expectations for its biggest foreign-exchange earner.

Spending by Chinese tourists will rise to NZ$3.73 billion ($2.5 billion) by 2022 from NZ$1.65 billion last year, according to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s latest annual forecasts. That’s 30 percent less than the NZ$5.32 billion expected in last year’s projections.

“There is significant geopolitical risk around the China market,” the ministry said in the report, published Friday, adding that indicators like early-2017 visa approvals were “suggesting a short-term slowing in the market.” [my emphasis]

The downward revision indicates overall revenue from tourists won’t grow as quickly as previously expected, and that Australia will remain the biggest source of tourist dollars until 2021. Last year, officials forecast China would take the top ranking in 2017. Read more

Let's hope the geopolitical risks surrounding China don't disrupt our export trade to this currently significant destination.

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