Statistics New Zealand sees the country's population potentially exceeding 7.5 million by the year 2068 if migration levels average less than half their current levels.
The latest population projections released by Stats NZ show our population will likely hit 5 million around 2020 and "could reach this milestone sooner".
In the year ended June 2016 the population grew at its fastest rate since the early 1960s, up 2.1% or 97,000.
"Our population was estimated to be 4.69 million at 30 June 2016, with net migration being 69,100 over the June year," Statistics NZ senior demographer Kim Dunstan said.
The latest projections show a high chance of the population rising to between 4.9 and 5.1 million by 2020. By 2025 the population is expected to be between 5.0 and 5.5 million. By 2068, the projections indicate a population of between 5.3 and 7.9 million.
The long-term median (mid-point) net migration is assumed to fluctuate around 15,000 a year. However, if there was average migration of 30,000 a year, the population could reach 7.5 million by 2068. Alternatively, that 7.5 million figure could also be exceeded with much higher fertility rates.
If there was no migration, the population would peak at 5.3 million around 2050 and then slowly decline.
Stats NZ says the latest national population projections that look out to 2068 are not designed to be exact forecasts or predictions, but rather a guide to help planning.
The projections also show growing numbers of older people in coming decades.
The number of people aged 85 years and older will more than triple, from about 83,000 in 2016, to between 270,000 and 320,000 in the next 30 years. Those aged 65 years and older will roughly double, from about 700,000 now to between 1.3 and 1.5 million in 2046.
Overall population growth is expected to slow in the longer term as the population ages and the gap between births and deaths narrows. The rate of population growth may halve to less than 1% in the 2030s.
38 Comments
Nah the Oil- age is going to enter its mature stage, and end way before we run out of oil , just like the Stone Age ended way before the world ran out of stones , or the iron age ended way before we ran out of Iron ore .or the Steam -age ended way before we ran out of water and coal
... the oil boy is still here , endlessly trotting out his " peak oil " malarkey .... oh happy days ...
If anyone wants a heads up to the likely future developments in energy , spend 38 minutes watching Kaila Colbin give her " Riding the Exponential Wave of Change " talk at the University of Canterbury ... ( UC Connect ) ... well worth the time spent ...
Ice Age ended when I realized that single malt whisky is so much better without it ...
... I think we're currently living in the House Age ...
But it won't end in blood , fire , massacre , starvation , cannibalism and disaster ... because , this time is different ...
History will call us " the Apple Age " ... because , you're nothing and nobody if you're not totally connected with the modern hi-tech world ...
... and secondly , if it does all go to hell in a hand-basket and we resort to cannibalism , human flesh tastes alike pork , apparently ... ... so , a little apple sauce will help your dinner go down more pleasingly ...
The Apple Age
With most of our wealth generated by a handful of people in the primary and tourist sectors, we need less people not more. The rest of us are just chewing up cash without contributing to the nations exports or replacing imports. Automation will reduce our need for extra people even more.
I will admit that it is getting harder to get straight forward useful information from Statistics NZ as they have inflated and confused their offerings. However the following shows that sectors based in primary production contribute $27.7 B of our total exports or 48.9%.
https://www.newzealandnow.govt.nz/investing-in-nz/opportunities-outlook…
This list does not identify a contribution from Tourism, perhaps because in the strict sense no goods are exported.
This link shows that tourism earns $11.8 B in foreign earnings.
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/about/about-the-industry/
These two areas add to $39.5 B. If we add the tourism figure to the $56.8B export figure in the first reference then total foreign earnings are $68.6 B, of which Tourisim and primary sector based income makes up 57.5%.
Mdm never has, so gave up responding to Mdm several years ago for that reason. A lightweight with too much to say of no substance. This could and should be turned around on Mdm. First of all it should offer up exactly what it does that contributes to the productive and/or tradeable economy, just so that we know that Mdm understand what that actually is. Then sMdm should be providing the data to show what sectors of the productive economy are productive, and exactly what contribution that makes to the economy instead on the nonsense sniping from the sideline. A display of the inderstanding of energy inputs wouldn't go astray either, but I have never seen this level of cognisance to date.
An increase in population is actually a two edged sword as far as agricultural exports go. Firstly some of our most productive agricultural land is gobbled up by housing - vegetable fields, avocado and kiwifruit orchards and dairy farms particularly around Franklin, North Waikato Hamilton and Tauranga are being taken for subdivisions so we have less to export. Secondly a bigger population eats more of what we produce again leaving less for export.
In my opinion we are better off with a smaller population. NZ is acting like a solo Mum on the DBP, the more children she has the more money she gets, then abandoning her offspring...untill all the prisons are full and the hospitals groaning. More people = less resources, less "clean green" The beautiful NZ i grew up in, is fast being sold down the river.
absolute rubbish who says big is best, most kiwis cherish our space and freedom, why else does Auckland empty on holiday long weekends when droves head to the country to as we have a saying in NZ to get away from the rat race
watch the queues of traffic this Friday fleeing Auckland north and south
That's why so many Kiwis, Australians, Canadians and Americans are immigrating to China to live permanently. Not a day goes by that I don't hear people taking about making the move. You see, its the enormous population and high density / crowded living conditions that makes China such a great place to raise a family.
In fact, nothing beats waking up and opening your window to the fresh sight and smell of smog in the morning, ahhh paradise!
NZs current population is some 4.50m,of whom 1/3rd live in and around Auckland. The proportion keeps growing,so it is reasonable to assume that if we were to reach 7.50m,then at least 40% of them and probably much more,would live in Greater Auckland,giving it a population of 3m or more.
The economic and social consequences for NZ would be immense and as a country,we need to think seriously about these issues,well ahead of time.
We will have around 1.50m over 65 and this has huge economic implications for pensions,healthcare,work etc and again,we have to plan ahead. I know how unlikely it is,but we need a non party political discussion on where we want to go as a country. We owe this to the succeeding generations who will have to deal with the consequence of our actions or non actions today.
I think reading between the lines they mean born kiwis that are used to space,
Love life? Destination Rotorua offers an escape from the rat race
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=117…
incredibly bull swill article
after having seen something similar elsewhere i'd already set up a spreadsheet to verify such statements so that i could see for myself when people were telling porkies
PEOPLE ARE TELLING PORKIES
our current population growing at typical replacement growth levels would see the population at about 7.4 million in 50 years
that rate of growth, incidentally, is higher than the USA growth over the last 50 years
if you calculate NZ growth based on current (standard) replacement rates plus immigration as we now are experiencing it you get a population in 50 years of more than 13 million
now, realise that the policymakers are the very same people who are making a killing in investment property and will never give up on their greed - so our immigration rates will rise steadily - never will they fall or the whole Ponzie scheme will collapse
the truth is that if our immigration halved from its current rate our population would still be over 10 million in 50 years
fact is - exponential numbers are very tricky and not naturally understood by humans
but people gaming the system with their spreadsheets know
whatever you might think the best population should be you'd better quickly understand the facts at least for your children's sake
the population of NZ will be in the order of 20 million in 50 years
that is what your policy makers secretly believe and everything they do points to that being the case
that's why the ONLY ONLY election policy issue that must always be addressed first and foremost is targeted population
otherwise the scumbags on the inside will continue to game the system with two-faced assurances to the ones who will see their descendants relegated to permanent poverty
While I'm not sure on your numbers, you have a point. Stats NZ have constantly revised population numbers upward in every projection for the past 10 years. NZs growth rate has been at or above the 95th percentile in their projections. Hence, unless things change, 7.9 million by 2068 is a minimum, much likely much higher as you point out. I've enjoyed fishing on empty beaches and tramping through uncrowded wilderness. My grandchildren probably won't...
Clueless, the whole of the worlds population could be less than this in 50 years time. This planet is in the shit, glad I will not be here in 50 years time to see it. The population crash is inevitable at some point, the resources are limited and took millions on years to create and we are going to have wasted the lot in a few hundred years.
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