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Monday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Euro meltdown report; Greek protestors throw yoghurt; Greek coup talk grows; Soros eyes euro breakup; Cartoons galore; Dilbert

Monday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Euro meltdown report; Greek protestors throw yoghurt; Greek coup talk grows; Soros eyes euro breakup; Cartoons galore; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 1 pm in association with NZ Mint.

I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.

I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

It's all Greek and European to me today.

Euro meltdown part 1 - Reuters reports Ireland's Finance Minister saying there are bigger worries with Spain and the large European economies now than with the likes of Ireland and Greece.

He's saying, essentially, that the contagion has moved on.

This is all getting a bit ugly.

It means anyone thinking of making a big business or borrowing committment over the next week or two should take a wary look or two at Greece and Europe before making a decision.

Remember, a European 'Lehman style' crisis makes it more difficult and expensive for New Zealand to roll over its foreign debt. That makes our banks more nervous etc etc.

Investors pushed Irish and Portuguese borrowing costs to fresh euro-era highs last week amid uncertainty over how Greece can avoid default but contagion concerns have heaped pressure on Spanish and Italian yields.

"The European authorities are more worried about countries like Spain than they are about Ireland and Portugal," Michael Noonan told state broadcaster RTE.

"The authorities that I have spoken to believe they can prevent contagion spreading to Ireland and Portugal but they have some concerns about the bigger European countries, and they are going to draw the line there."

Euro meltdown part 2 - The NYTimes reports China's Wen Jiabao is reassuring the Europeans that he would be very happy to help Europe by lending it more money.

The Chinese are desperate to avoid the disintegration of the one real alternative to the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Mr. Wen said China is a long-term investor in the European sovereign debt market and has purchased euro-denominated bonds in the past several years in amounts he described as “not small.”

“China will consistently support Europe and the euro,” he said after a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. “Europe’s debt crisis is expanding,” Mr. Wen said. “Trust is more important than currency and gold and now, during the debt crisis, we again bring trust to Europe.”

Euro meltdown part 3 - BBC reports Greece's Deputy Prime Minister Thodor Pangalos has warned it may be difficult for the government pass the specific reforms needed to get the next rounds of a bailout package needed to forestall default.

In an interview published on Sunday, the deputy prime minister, Theodor Pangalos, was optimistic about winning the first round of general votes on tax and spending targets and the creation of a privatisation agency.

But he was more cautious about whether the government could get passed further legislation on individual budget measures and the privatisation of specific state assets.

Mr Pangalos said: "I think the package of short and medium-term measures with which we basically hope to establish the framework to undertake reforms will be approved without difficulty."

But he said approval of specific laws to bring in fiscal reforms and privatisations of public companies may be more difficult: "That's where we may have problems. I don't know whether some of our members of parliament will vote against it. It's possible."

Euro meltdown  part 4 - Bloomberg reports George Soros saying it's inevitable that a Euro exit mechanism will have to be created to allow the likes of Greece and others to exit the Euro.

“We are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread,” Soros, 80, said at a panel discussion in Vienna today on whether liberal democracy is at risk in Europe. “The financial system remains extremely vulnerable.”

“I think most of us actually agree that” Europe’s crisis “is actually centered around the euro,” said Soros. “It’s a kind of financial crisis that is really developing. It’s foreseen. Most people realize it. It’s still developing. The authorities are actually engaged in buying time. And yet time is working against them,” he said.

Euro meltdown part 5 - WSJ explains here why the Germans are very grumpy about bailing out the Greeks again. The Germans are natural savers, while the rest of Europe aren't. This problem is at the heart of the stresses in a Euro zone where they share the same currency but not the same fiscal policy or savings habits.

Germans' deep-seated economic caution has roots in the ruinous wars and inflation of the last century. Many of today's Germans are as frugal as ever, on average saving 11.5% of their incomes in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That compares with a savings rate of 5.7% in the U.S. last year.

In Ireland, one of the euro-zone countries that is getting a bailout, the average savings rate last year was 11.1%, near that of Germany—but the rate only rose after the shock of the global financial crisis, and follows years of much lower saving. Meanwhile, in Greece, residents on average spent 12% more than they earned in 2008, the latest year for which data is available from the OECD.

"Risk-averse Germans are concerned about the problematic economic behavior of some of their neighboring countries," says Thorsten Hennig-Thurau, a professor at Münster University, who studies consumer habits. That, he says, explains many Germans' growing nostalgia for their beloved former national currency, the Deutsche mark.

Euro meltdown part 6 - Irwin Stelzer writes here at WSJ about the real problems in the global financial system. Investors don't trust the banking system and Europe is mired in too much debt.

Here's Stelzer:

What we have come to call the Greek crisis is, first, an international banking crisis. Like Lehman Brothers, Greece is definitely not too big to fail. It is too interconnected to fail, too interconnected to the international banking system, too interconnected to the political ambitions of those who have spent decades replacing the system of nation states with a united Europe.

Many of Germany's under-capitalized banks would be hard hit if they were forced to recognize that their books are in good part works of fiction, with IOUs of Greece and its banks and businesses recorded at values that have no relation to their true worth.

German banks are not alone in their predicament: The rating agencies are already expressing concern about the exposure of three French banks and some 29 Italian banks, and the governor of the Bank of England has called the problems of overly indebted euro-zone countries the "most serious and immediate risk" to the U.K. financial sector. It is also obvious that we have no clear idea of the exposure of U.S. money-market funds to Greece's insolvency, or of insurers—remember AIG, anyone? That's why $51 billion has been pulled out of those funds in recent weeks by nervous investors, why America's banks have become reluctant to lend to their European counterparts, and why the Fed is asking U.S. banks about their exposure, including credit default swaps written on European banks.

Euro meltdown part 7 - Talk is growing within the Greek military about a coup if the parliament presses ahead with more austerity measures and a capitulation to European bankers.

They have form. There was a coup in Greece in 1967. This link is to a barely intelligible Google translation of a Greek website.

Here's Business Insider with what the CIA is starting to think about.

Due to the increasing severity of the problem, and the ongoing resistance to additional support, the Central Intelligence Agency has now issued a report warning on how worsening Greek unrest could bring rise to even a military coup.

According to Turkey’s Daily News & Economic Review:

“According to he CIA report, ongoing street protests in crisis-hit Greece could turn into escalated violence and a rebellion and the Greek government could lose control, said Bild. The newspaper said the CIA report talks of a possible military coup if the situation becomes more serious and uncontrolled.

Euro meltdown part 8 - Reuters reports trading in the shares of two Italian banks was briefly suspended on Friday after a slump in their shares.

Ugliness.

Factors included speculation that imminent stress test results may highlight capital shortfalls at Italian lenders, a European central banker saying the euro zone debt crisis was not over, German comments on a possible sovereign debt rollover, and a Moody's downgrade threat on Italian banks.

One Milan analyst, who asked not to be named, said macroeconomic factors were the main driver, as well as the threat of a credit rating downgrade by Moody's.

9. Austrians and Gold - Bill Still talks here about a meeting he had with a member of the US Congress about monetary policy reform and the push for a new gold standard.

He also talks about the way Icelandic people are rejecting the prescriptions of bankers to bail out the banks. He says Ireland's people should do the same. HT Andrewj

10. Totally Jon Stewart video about Greece - Athenian youth throw yoghurt. Stewart works out US debt is just as bad as Greek debt....

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38 Comments

FYI Germany is already printing Deutschmarks. think thats how you spell it.

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WHAT?!

 

you gotta be kidding . if that's public knowledge it must be all over for the euro.

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Its not public knowledge, guess they are just being cautious.

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Do you have a link MuppetKing?

Cheers

Alex

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Quite likely the pollies yelling "it's alright it's alright" are flat stick shifting their booty as far from danger as they can. I expect the media mob will be at this as well...while telling the world not to worry..."don't panic don't panic....until I have moved my money.."

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There was more than a rumour about a year ago. There was even an exact date when the D-Mark will be again introduced on a website (can't find the link anymore) extolling in knowledge what goes on behind the curtain. Did not happen then.

But who knows?  The Germans would certainly prefer their hard and dependable  D-Marks.

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Hi Alex

 

No can't provide a link, word of mouth in the hedge fund/trader scene.

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Wow, you must have Soros on speed-dial.

I would think a lower EUR rather than a stronger D-mark would be most welcome by the export led German economy. 

As it is, despite all the headlines, EURUSD is holding pretty firm around 1.42

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Part 5.  Does Germany's savings have anything to do with their property market, specifically the lack of a bubble?

 http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/how-germany-achieved-stable-affordable-housing/

Bernard, number 7 on your Weekend Top 10 included charts re Housing Price Indexes.  How easy to add Germany into these for a comparison?

 http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/swedens-bubblicious-housing/ - looks a lot like NZ?

The following is part 5 of a series and all together makes interesting reading.

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28888.html

"I’ve previously detailed how the baby boom generation contributed to our financial quandary in Part One – For a Few Dollars More, how the traitorous deeds of the Federal Reserve over the last few decades have ruined the middle class and placed the country on the precipice of disintegration in Part Two – Fistful of Dollars, addressed the nefarious conception of a central bank in Part Three – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly and revealed how the super rich have used the tax code and their control of politicians to pillage the nation in Part Four – Outlaw Josey Wales. Now I will detail the likely result of years of frivolous consumerism, creation of a debt tsunami, corrupt myopic leadership, crooked bankers, and a angry despondent populace. The lack of preparation by government and individuals ensures this Crisis will be far worse than it had to be. The violent clash between competing forces will be extreme, bloody and result in retribution dished out to the guilty. Ultimately, the country will need to atone for its sins."

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I was going to wade in on this one with "Ha, Hugh, see? Lets talk Germany instead of harping on about Texas all the bleedin time - bet the Germans will have a sensible controlled land policy...." Then I read the article -  "right to build"; local governments with " incentive to provide land for housing". Let me be clear, I don't like Hugh's constant referencing of his own work, or his unfortunate tendency to resort to personal insults. But this article does rather support his arguments!

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Wibbly - hard to know where to start with that article.

For a start, Germany has outsourced much of her food production - Spain springs to mind.... so presumably has a lesser conflict of land-use than some. That will be a temporary state of affairs, the just-in-time food system relies on cheap oil.

It says that 'renting is the dominant culture' - which somewhat clashes with the chimera of cheap starters for the wide-eyed 10% downers.

And sure, you may be able to build immediately if you comply with the plan, but the same applies here! They have plans so detailed, that in a butynol-roofed street, you have to build with a butynol roof........

Sure, youre free to build - good if you like butynol........ :)

My village is full of Germans who escaped the regimentation, and who revel in being able to build whatever they want......

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The issue has merit, not the whole solution though. I always focus on what people have to say and ignore the person as I have seen time and time again the main payoff for commentators is self promotion and ego, the message is the useful by product.

There are no orginal thoughts and many have stated them before. I wait to see if someone will try to take credit foir Rodger Sutton comments yesterday :-)

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When the bloody stupid EURO is finally disbanded , then the Chinese , and everyone else , will have dozen's of extra currencies to play with ..... as alternatives to Ben Bernanke's lettuce leaves dollar .

...... and meebee , finally , the $Kiwi will stop flying so high ....... as guilders and florins , lira and francs ,  drachma  and deustchmarks become available again . ..... Kiwi , who ? ...... The big korunas crave the kroon , they wanna tolar , not a dollar , a markka , escudo you know . Pity the peseta , it is no yetta . And the pound is re-found , franc ! For a schilling I am willing .

Go Georgie boy , give 'em the Soros seal of death , bury the frigging Euro once and for all .

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The big korunas crave the kroon , they wanna tolar , not a dollar , a markka , escudo you know . Pity the peseta , it is no yetta . And the pound is re-found , franc ! For a schilling I am willing .

 

That Tanduay brings out the poet in you GBH...

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Take uit easy GBH, enough of this Filippino lingo.

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Gummy, I'm not sure the Chinese will ever let the Euro fall. They are big bond holders and supporters of the PIGS for that very reason.  China does more trade with the EU than it does with the US. The last thing it wants is both of its major trading partners in the toliet. Who's going to buy their stuff then?

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Part 5: "The Germans are natural savers, while the rest of Europe aren't. This problem is at the heart of the stresses in a Euro zone where they share the same currency but not the same fiscal policy or savings habits."

That isn't the way I see it. To me it looks like the fact that Euro nations don't have control of their own currency means that the pollies can't rig the economy to hide the problems - they can't print money, devalue, maintain artificially low interest rates. This doesn't cause the problems, it tends to force them out into the open.

And the more I hear from the US and UK about how the Euro is such a problem, the more I question what their real interests are. I get the impression their own problems are far worse, and they are desparate to deflect attention elsewhere. 

If the Euro was seen as a perfectly good currency right now, how safe would the US be? After all, to a large extent they've been propped up by virtue of having the world's reserve currency.

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FYI on whether Shale gas could power the world. HT Chris via email

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2062331,00.html?artId=20…

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Gasland is a good fillum on the subject BH

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1558250/

 

as with all energy solutions there is a sane way to get energy and an insane way.....

compare the ease with which shale gas has exploded across the states (sometime literally ho ho ho) with the hoops crest energy have had to jump through to get their project going in the kaipara.....out of the numerous projects on the go in nz that is my favourite by miles

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Hold your horses with shale gas:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/us/26gas.html?_r=1

''But the gas may not be as easy and cheap to extract from shale formations deep underground as the companies are saying, according to hundreds of industry e-mails and internal documents and an analysis of data from thousands of wells.

In the e-mails, energy executives, industry lawyers, state geologists and market analysts voice skepticism about lofty forecasts and question whether companies are intentionally, and even illegally, overstating the productivity of their wells and the size of their reserves. Many of these e-mails also suggest a view that is in stark contrast to more bullish public comments made by the industry, in much the same way that insiders have raised doubts about previous financial bubbles''.

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Here's what appears to be a good (but long) balanced article on what energy sources are available and some of the problems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/future-energy

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"The result of all this effort is a modest EROEI--from 15:1 all the way down to 3:1."

The problem is we need 10:1 minimum, 3:1 isnt worth drilling for.....

Lots of comments are possible on this piece some things like hvy oil are also just not good eroei ditto coal to deisel..........but my battery is almost flat.......

:/

 

regards

PS at least they actually mention EROEI....which is a start....

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Yep - puts them way ahead of GBH - he's had 2 years of it, and doesn't seem to have read a link I've posted.....

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FYI from an emailer on peak oil:

Bernard

 

I am drawing to your attention this Report (Feb 2011)  from Emmanuel De Veirman and Felipe Labbe in the Research section of the Reserve Bank

 

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31214727/deveirman_oil_price_shocks_Nz_feb_2011.pdf

 

 

They conclude…

< >a 5% permanent increase in retail fuel prices implies a decline in NZ's GDP of 0.3%

a succession of oil price shocks such as those in 2007-08 had "a substantial effect on real GDP in New Zealand"

New Zealand's oil use is different, leaving us more vulnerable to oil shocks. Faced with oil shocks New Zealand households and firms have only one third of the ability to lower the amount of oil they consume, compared with the United States.

real wages decline in response to oil shocks, as they are eroded by inflation.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31214727/UK-decc-report-2009-oil-decline.pptx

 

2.      Agreeing to develop an oil shock response plan with UK industry

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2072738/exclusive-government-develop-oil-shock-response-plan

3.      undertaking research on the likely adverse effects on their economy of an oil price spike.
The simulation undertaken for the UK government indicates a decline in the level of real GDP - of around 1.7% in each of the first two years (2011 & 2012) as a result of around 102% oil price increase in 2011.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31214727/Annex%20A%20-%20HMRC%20CGE%20results%20from%20oil%20shock%20scenario.docx

regards

 

Denis

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Bernard - that first link - my computer says its damaged and could not be repaired on adobe.

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opens fine in chrome andy

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OMG's link didnt open for me but the original did, but the second time....I suppose its a server problem.

regards

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http://dl.dropbox.com/u/31214727/deveirman_oil_price_shocks_Nz_feb_2011.pdfSee page 13,

you're famous, Bernard.

 "in the theory of Hicksian demand"

 

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I hadn't thought of using my Dropbox to post information/photos! One lives, and learns...Thx for that OMG.

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ps is it true that Iceland are trying to join the eurozone?  who says scandinavians don't know funny?

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Mmm, Greek yoghurt... :-)

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The debt crisis is creating an interesting battle between the US and Europe.  What Soros is saying is that Europe is in the fortunate position of being able to dismantle the Euro.  Euro countries will actually have the freedom to re-balance and re-establish their own currencies or establish smaller baskets.  Remember Argentina thrived within 2 years of their default, as will many European countries, because of their clean slates.

The US dollar will rise now until the dust settles in Europe.  Then, because the US cannot dismantle the dollar like the Europeans, the weight of debt on the 50 combined United States will cause a crash of epic proportions whereby the Americans will have no alternative other than to drag the world with them into WW3 against Iran etc.  After all, if Americans can't afford an international flight, they might as well go down kicking and screaming. screaming  

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FYI, actually the Greek crises is not as bad for europe as the above articles portray.

Germany and other banks who lent to Greece took insurance through third parties thought to be American banks and therefore should there be a default the sword will fall on the US Tax payer.

Good luck getting of the hook to Germany and France, American bankers and ultimately the US Tax payers.

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Money doesn't clean things up, people do. You just print the money.

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What a way to start Tuesday....

 "So far this bear market is progressing as expected. It started with the tech bubble bursting that transformed into a financial crisis. It has now infected sovereign debt. And will ultimately end in a massive currency crisis"

 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28925.html

How's the debasement progressing Alan...another week another bit of value lost...who gives a shite... right !

The piigs sea of debt and banking sea of shite loans starting to look like doing a Fukushima and spewing over the edges...gotta keep the BS and spin machines running...only growth industry left....have another Gummy Bear before the price goes up!...and don't forget to rush on down for a mortgage cos you don't want to miss out on being destroyed do you...

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