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Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Chinese admiral says war with Japan would be quick; How NZ could encourage mass immigration of highly skilled Americans; Huawei and a disturbing death in Singapore; Clarke and Dawe; Dilbert

Posted in Opinion Updated

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at midday in association with NZ Mint.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read today is #9. One for all Huawei employees and customers in New Zealand to read. It is deeply disturbing.

1. 'Make it a quick war' - The dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands keeps bubbling along with not many people too worried.

Yet when you look at the rhetoric of the Chinese generals in particular you begin to wonder.

Kirk Spitzer from Time reports on what a very senior rear admiral recently said in a prime time television special aired in China.

The respective navies keep accidentally shadowing each other and locking on to each others' radar.

Let's hope this all blows over, but the rhetoric is not encouraging.

Here's the jaw-jaw about any war-war.

“The battle to take over the Diaoyu Islands would not be a conventional operation. For either party involved in the war, it would be very difficult to employ their full military capabilities, because there would be no time for them to fully unfold in the fight. The real fight would be very short. It is very possible the war would end in a couple of days or even in a few hours,” said PLA Navy Rear Admiral Yin Zhou, a former director of the Navy Institute of Strategic Studies, in a recent primetime special on Beijing TV.

2. The other point of view - Yesterday I pointed to an article wondering who would have jobs and incomes if lots of jobs go to robots.

Here's a New York Times piece arguing that the shift to robotics is good for productivity and the fruits of this labour will find its way to people eventually.

 

A German robotics engineer argued that automation was essential to preserve jobs and also vital to make it possible for national economies to support social programs.

“Countries that have high productivity can afford to have a good social system and a good health system,” said Alexander Verl, head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering in Germany. “You see that to some extent in Germany or in Sweden. These are countries that are highly automated but at the same time they spend money on elderly care and the health system.”

3. Delaware = Dollars and Euros Laundered and Washed at Reasonable Expense - FTAlphaville reports on how some of the best tax havens are actually in America. Delaware is particularly effective.

According to a World Bank database, American shells are the most popular corporate vehicles among perpetrators of large-scale corruption… In a study last year three academics, led by Griffith University’s Mr Sharman, approached shell-company providers around the world posing as corrupt officials and money-launderers. They found that OECD countries were less compliant than tax havens with international standards on corporate transparency, that America was among the least compliant, and that Delaware was one of the worst states (with not a single fully compliant response).

Investigators joke that Delaware stands for “Dollars and Euros Laundered And Washed At Reasonable Expense”.

4. 'Just like a real estate agent' - America's futures exchanges regulator, Gary Gensler, has said LIBOR is still often "completely made up". 

Here's how he described it in this BBC article:

 

Mr Gensler compared the manipulation of rates to an estate agent trying to sell you a house.

"They are trying to reference the price of the houses in the neighbourhood [when] there have been no transactions in the neighbourhood and furthermore, the agent is not willing to share the data and is often just making it all up," he said.

5. America's broken health care system - If New Zealand ever decided its path to greatness was to import lots of highly skilled engineers and tech people from America, it would be fairly easy to entice them here. All we'd need to do is explain our fairly simply and relatively inexpensive health care system and how much it costs individuals and taxpayers and they would migrate in a jiffy.

Read this piece from Time to understand why. HT Martyn via email.

 

Every time a nurse drew blood, a “ROUTINE VENIPUNCTURE” charge of $36.00 appeared, accompanied by charges of $23 to $78 for each of a dozen or more lab analyses performed on the blood sample. In all, the charges for blood and other lab tests done on Recchi amounted to more than $15,000. Had Recchi been old enough for Medicare, MD Anderson would have been paid a few hundred dollars for all those tests. By law, Medicare’s payments approximate a hospital’s cost of providing a service, including overhead, equipment and salaries.

On the second page of the bill, the markups got bolder. Recchi was charged $13,702 for “1 RITUXIMAB INJ 660 MG.” That’s an injection of 660 mg of a cancer wonder drug called Rituxan. The average price paid by all hospitals for this dose is about $4,000, but MD Anderson probably gets a volume discount that would make its cost $3,000 to $3,500. That means the nonprofit cancer center’s paid-in-advance markup on Recchi’s lifesaving shot would be about 400%.

When I asked MD Anderson to comment on the charges on Recchi’s bill, the cancer center released a written statement that said in part, “The issues related to health care finance are complex for patients, health care providers, payers and government entities alike … MD Anderson’s clinical billing and collection practices are similar to those of other major hospitals and academic medical centers.”

The hospital’s hard-nosed approach pays off. Although it is officially a nonprofit unit of the University of Texas, MD Anderson has revenue that exceeds the cost of the world-class care it provides by so much that its operating profit for the fiscal year 2010, the most recent annual report it filed with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, was $531 million. That’s a profit margin of 26% on revenue of $2.05 billion, an astounding result for such a service-intensive enterprise.

6. Why should US taxpayers give America's Too Big to Fail or Jail banks a US$83 billion gift each year? - That's the question being asked by Bloomberg's editorial writers.

Bloomberg has worked out how big the subsidy is and that these banks would be unprofitable without it. 

 

The top five banks -- JPMorgan, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - - account for $64 billion of the total subsidy, an amount roughly equal to their typical annual profits (see tables for data on individual banks). In other words, the banks occupying the commanding heights of the U.S. financial industry -- with almost $9 trillion in assets, more than half the size of the U.S. economy -- would just about break even in the absence of corporate welfare. In large part, the profits they report are essentially transfers from taxpayers to their shareholders.

Neither bank executives nor shareholders have much incentive to change the situation. On the contrary, the financial industry spends hundreds of millions of dollars every election cycle on campaign donations and lobbying, much of which is aimed at maintaining the subsidy. The result is a bloated financial sector and recurring credit gluts. Left unchecked, the superbanks could ultimately require bailouts that exceed the government’s resources. Picture a meltdown in which the Treasury is helpless to step in as it did in 2008 and 2009.

7. Hand that mine back - Yesterday I talked about China's concrete diplomacy where it builds highways and ports and mines in Africa to get access to precious physical resources.

BBC reports Zambia has just taken a big mine back after the Chinese failed to keep the mine safe or clean. 

 

As well as the safety issues, Mr Mukanga also stated that the company had failed to pay royalties or properly declare how much coal was produced. The mine in question has been controversial.

A Zambian miner was charged with the murder of a Chinese supervisor at the Collum mine last year. In 2010, Chinese managers were accused of firing on protesting miners.

8. Currency Wars and Australia - Alan Kohler writes at the ABC about the risks for Australia.

 

The greatest threat to Australian manufacturing is now the Bank of Japan. That's because if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) succeeds in its drive to bring inflation to Japan, the yen will continue to depreciate and push the Australian dollar to new highs. Of course, if the Japanese economy recovers it may become a bigger buyer of Australian resources, but that won't help manufacturing.

 

In the modern world of monetary policy and macro economics, targets blur. All of the indebted nations of the west are trying to generate inflation because it's the only way out of their debt vice: they can't run surpluses and pay it off and they can't just default on their bonds, so they must stuff the bonds down the throats of their central banks and then surreptitiously write down their value via inflation. It's the only way, and they're well into it.

Inflation is both the cause and effect of currency devaluation. By printing money to buy bonds and targeting higher employment and higher inflation, the central banks of America, Europe and Japan are also targeting a lower exchange rate. The Australian dollar TWI used to closely track a combination of the cash rate and commodity prices, but in 2010 that relationship broke down as the United Stated Federal Reserve and then the European Central Bank began their "quantitative easing" programs (buying bonds).

Since then the cash rate has been cut 1.75 per cent and the RBA index of commodity prices has fallen 20 per cent, yet the Aussie TWI has appreciated 15 per cent, from 67.7 in early 2010 to 77.8 today. Against the US dollar, it's up 20 per cent from 86.8 to 103.6 this morning.

9. A disturbing story - The FT has an amazing story titled "Death in Singapore" about the apparent suicide of a young US engineer working for a Singaporean company making equipment in partnership with Huawei.

Huawei is the giant Chinese telecommunciations equipment company that has a major presence in New Zealand, but is banned from government work in UK, Australia and America because of official concerns it is a front for the Chinese military. The implications are profoundly disturbing and symptomatic of worries about cyber warfare and national interests at play through the vehicles of technology companies. Huawei's technology is at the heart of our new fibre to the curb broadband network, along with the 2 Degrees and Vodafone networks.

On June 24 last year, the body of a young US electronics engineer, Shane Todd, was found hanging in his Singapore apartment. Police said it was suicide, but the Todd family believe he was murdered. Shane had feared that a project he was working on was compromising US national security. His parents want to know if that project sent him to his grave

10. Totally Clarke and Dawe on Kevin Rudd's non-run for the Labor leadership.

No. No Brian. No. Um... No. No Brian not in a fit. No.

(Updated with cartoons)

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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54 Comments

China v japan Revisit the

China v japan
Revisit the Falklands war, or iraq, ie can chinese using mass tactics overwelme Japan's superior weapons systems? bear in mind china isnt regarded as a blue sea navy either.
In any event it would be pretty quick I think...wonder if indeed the chinese govn is looking to deflect away the bad economic position with a "win"...ouch for (all of)  us.
regards
 

If the chinese weapons last

If the chinese weapons last as long as some of the rubbish they sell in retail shops in NZthen it would have to be a short war other wise their weapons will be returned for repair.

LOL, except US munitions are

LOL, except US munitions are made with chinese rare earth metals. So once the US has used up its stocks it cant get any more off the ppl its shooting them at can it.
What worries me to the rhetoric and economic unrest in china so sounds like Argentinia when it invaded The Falklands.....messy.
I assume we'll see some chinese "fishermen" etc living there all of a sudden....then Japan has to remove them....
regards

#3 - Those laws in Delaware

#3 - Those laws in Delaware were set up long ago for the benefit of the DuPont family, who have long controlled government there.  Of course, nothing like that happens here (e.g., the Todds).
 
#5 - If they do come here from the USA, they'll be sorry and gone after 3 years at the latest after they've been worked like slaves and their brains picked dry.  Ask me how I know.

How do you know?

How do you know?

#9 Ya haveta assume that

#9
Ya haveta assume that there are hardware trapdoors etched into the silicon in all these devices.
 
Reminds me of a bar story I heard firsthand long ago and far away:

  • Company had a Harris mainframe.
  • Needed a hard boot (difficult to organise, lots of prep needed)
  • Boot needed a specific keystroke sequence as the starting kick (common in them old world days)
  • Operator foobarred the keystroke sequence
  • Mainframe booted
  • Then requested DoD clearance code for a named US satellite and missile base.......

 

Massive and authoritative

Massive and authoritative report on the real state of US unconventional oil production:
http://www.postcarbon.org/reports/DBD-report-FINAL.pdf
Executive summary if you dont fancy all 166 pages:
http://www.postcarbon.org/reports/DBD-Exec-Summary.pdf
 
Required reading for anyone who wants to understand the US shale oil claims and the reality of tar sands etc

#5 If these folk are what

#5
If these folk are what America wants then they will already have more 'broken' health care coverage than they could ever use, courtesy of employer benefits, etc. A system like ours only appeals to people who are ranked as less salubrious than a highly skilled engineer and as such may have to actually buy coverage.

The government cons us were

The government cons us were richer in debt
Cos we can spend money we haven’t earned yet

Now that those goods have all turned to junk
My life is in ruins, as into debt i have sunk

I can't pay my mortgage that's now overdue
So i’m in a pickle, or is it the stew
 

We just gotta keep kicking

We just gotta keep kicking that particular can down the road , buddy ........
 
........ sooner or later there'll be another 'quake , and the liquefaction will bury that sucker .....

Not sure if this has already

Not sure if this has already been posted by anyone yet, but just in case...
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/5150125.html

A lot of nothing more than

A lot of nothing more than hand wringing.  We don't need him.  He is a liability.

"A system like ours only

"A system like ours only appeals to people who are ranked as less salubrious than a highly skilled engineer and as such may have to actually buy coverage."
 
Or to hotshots who came for lifestyle reasons.

My wife asked what I was

My wife asked what I was doing today....
 
I said , "Nothing"
 
 She said , But you did that yesterday..!
 
I said ,.." I know, I haven't finished yet. .............

My wife asked what I was

My wife asked what I was doing today .....
 
... I said " I'm in training to become the next Governor of the Reserve Bank " ....
 
She said " No you're not , you're just sitting around doing absolutely nothing at all , you lazy arse ! "
 
.. I said  " Finished the training , then ! "

Excellent! Occasionally we

Excellent! Occasionally we all take ourselves too seriously on this forum. Nice to see some shared humour...I think many of us can relate to those comments!

Oh yeah..doh...we could have

Oh yeah..doh...we could have moved the hut...doh
"....overhanging the hut, DoC had chopped it down and cut it up into firewood, rather than move the hut"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10867084
 

Excellent BBC interview with

Excellent BBC interview with fund manager Jeremy Grantham:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0148yp8/Global_Business_Jeremy_Gra...
 
Well worth the 26 minutes - one of the few money men who 'gets it'.

andyh - Thanks for that link.

andyh - Thanks for that link.  I didn't realise that JG was born and educated in Yorkshire.

Yes indeed, I love him and

Yes indeed, I love him and Hugh Hendry, they say  it like they see it and the reasoning is impecable IMHO.
regards

Thanks andyh    what he says

Thanks andyh
 
 what he says about population, resources and farmland is articulate and well argued, -
 
Bit refreshing to be able to read something outside NZ Mainstream MSM opinion
 

  Posted on …Cantabrians

 
Posted on …Cantabrians UNITE facebook …
 
Shocking (ha ha) news from the West Coast…
 
Hugh Pavletich
 

Companies are overpaying for

Companies are overpaying for lower-quality audits from the "big four" accountancy firms because of a lack of competition, according to the Competition Commission.
The review into how Ernst & Young, Deloitte, KPMG and PwC, audit 90% of UK-listed blue-chip businesses said they were "insufficiently independent from executive management and insufficiently sceptical in carrying out audits".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/22/big-four-accountancy-comp...
 

guys the unemployment chart

guys the unemployment chart will need updating with today's telecom announcement of hundreds of jobs to go. 
Yep, the NZ economy sure is looking rosy....

EBITDA ( earnings before

EBITDA ( earnings before interest , tax , depreciation & amortisation ) for the 6 months to December 31 was only $NZ 516 million , compared to $NZ 1656 for the comparative period in 2011 .....
 
.... the slackers responsible must pay for this appalling result .....
 
Or failing that , we'll just sack some of the actual workers , ...... as usual !

and maybe more important,

and maybe more important, this one will be felt in some quarters... and could be just as much felt by the small guys as Mainzeal will be.
http://www.proprint.com.au/News/333961,industrys-day-from-hell-geon-put-into-receivership.aspx

http://www.guardian.co.uk/bus

printing firm jobs hang in

Excellent ...... that proves

Excellent ...... that proves the old hard-copy print  technology is on the way out .......
 
....... more trees will be  left on the hills , and consequently , fewer villages will be washed away when the typhoon hits ....
 
Brilliant news , thanks for that !

I was going to get a book

I was going to get a book printed with a local printer in Chch, but then I found that Amazon's createspace was 10x cheaper (5x when you count shipping), plus you could order any quantity (e.g. 1 instead of 50 or 100 is still the same price), plus I could self-publish the whole thing by uploading a word doc and jpeg cover, with changes taking just 24hrs. Plus they throw in a free e-commerce website, as well as listing the book on Amazon. I tried explaing all this stuff to the local printer (an old dinosour of a guy), but no discount was proposed. Ok, moving away from the nicely-manicured lawn.

you are a real smart arse I'm

you are a real smart arse
I'm sure the hundreds of people and their families don't think it's 'brilliant news'

... shows what selfish

... shows what selfish buggers they are if they'd put money ahead of the lives of the innocent villagers & their chickens ....

Oh, and I forgot to mention,

Oh, and I forgot to mention, they also couldn't meet my deadline, which was fricken about a month long - that's what made me push thru to get a handle on the Createspace interface, and so I had about 3 or 4 different books published and delivered by the time they would've fired up their printer for me. If Fisher and Paykel can't keep their manufacturing here, then inefficient old dinosaur certainly can't. And yeah I tried to give them the positive outlook, suggesting they focus on helping people with pre-production work, and simply outsource the printing, with all the bells and whistles, but as the saying goes can't teach an old dog new tricks apparently. Baby-boomers eh:)

http://www.news.com.au/reales

http://www.news.com.au/realestate/investing/buyers-camp-out-to-stake-their-claim-to-new-development/story-fndbarft-1226583313750
Coming to NZ soon, camping out for land to build on. No this isn't Hong-Kong, but Australia that great nation of land shortages. (sarc)

  Hamish Rutherford of

 
Hamish Rutherford of Fairfax / Dom Post article on housing affordability….
 
“Watching the (housing) dream disappear”
 
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8344246/Watching-the-dream-disappear
 
My follow up comments at Cantabrians UNITE facebook
Hugh Pavletich

Re #5: The ONLY reason that

Re #5: The ONLY reason that ALL our engineers and tech people aren't on the next flight to America is their really tough visa system. As an IT engineer, I would be there tomorrow if I could - my boss has already moved, and I've been remotely working with American companies for much of my career. The problem with NZ is that its a country of bludgers, who are too stupid or corrupt to distinguish between taxing the rich, and taxing high incomes (hint: my income is split 7 ways - wife and 5 kids, and don't even get me started on the retirement rorts, or being sold into student loan slavery). Most Americans hate tinpot little socialist/communist dictatorships like NZ (even if it is less crowded and still has some trees), and would quite happily vote bomb our little nowhereville - in a new york minute.

How familiar are you with US

How familiar are you with US student debt?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-05/here-comes-student-loan-bailout
 

Not, but getting very

Not, but getting very familiar with the whinning at zero hedge though..they appear to have gone off the rails into kooksville in the last year or so.
regards

Yes, chose. Our population is

Yes, chose. Our population is actually shrinking, and shrinking very fast if you count the emmigration outflows. We are rapidly being replaced with foreign immigrants, in a vain and destructive effort to keep property prices high and wages low. In australia young families are supported, I would get $300/pw, even on a relatively high income, as a foreigner. Here its rich old baby-boomers milking the welfare system, so they can buy luxuries they haven't earned, paid for directly out of the wages of the working poor, who have no representation. So yes, here I do pay higher taxes than say a working couple with no kids on the same income, but its not for population impact, more like grey mafia. Fyi - the contraception pill is a darwinian suicide pill in the hands of selfish brainwashy liberals.

J Connell. Congrats on using

J Connell. Congrats on using what I presume is your real name, but you're a wee bit off the pace ideology-wise.
 
Not catholic, perchance?
 
The selfish are the folk who thought they could run an exponential consumption regime permanently, on a finite planet. Fossil fuels (the only energy input to this closed system is solar energy, fossil fuels are merely stored solar over vast periods of time) have funded the overshoot, which falters about now.
 
We've had our share of ideologues hereabouts, and have noted often, that denigration is part of their - weak, always - arguments.
 
FYI, sustainable global population (ex the FF blip) is perhaps 2 billion at sustainable level, maybe 1 billion at our current level. I suggest it was selfish to attempt more-than-replacement-at-most. One of the interesting wee oxymorons, is that the ignorant will keep on breeding as the more thoughtful don't, thus somewhat lowering the collective cranial capacity.
 
 

Conservative, but not

Conservative, but not cathloc, so I reiterate that a large family was a deliberate choice, and one that has been not just unsupported, but vehemently opposed by seemingly everyone. It's been observed that conservatives tend to have large families, whereas liberals prefer to just have pets, to meet their unfulfulled instinctive need to nuture. Funny, I don't hear anyone saying we need a smaller population in NZ, despite the obvious benefits to the environment - in practise our unbridled greed just totally overrides that sentiment. So when folks like you fall for the greenie rhetoric, and choose to avoid the high costs and inconvenience of breeding, you simply get replaced with immigrants - am I wrong? Nature has always been highly competitive, and if you choose not to compete, you lose. China's one-child policy has created a demographic time-bomb, and the irony that many of us are freely choosing the same fate is not lost on me. Good luck coping in your old age, I'm sure those filipino nurses will be a great help. At least we're not so racist as to spend a trillion dollars trying to develop robots to change bedsheets, like another demographically failing asian country. Those machines are just so cold when they transport the elderly in their arms, not missing a step when heads accidently clip doors.

Don't take people's comments

Don't take people's comments too seriously - whatever you do, there'll always be people around to put you down anyway.
 
I'd be interested in knowing who all the kids-haters expect will provide them with healthcare and other services later in life (please don't reply "euthanasia as soon as I get sick" or I want to be there to see it). The young, smart doctors and other professionals sure won't be their own kids. But then again, it's so much easier to go through life selfishly with nothing more to do than having fun and looking after one's own needs only. Raising the new generation, now that's another piece of work altogether. (From a mum of 5 young & bright children, not only raising her kids and paying heaps of tax while not getting any subsidy, but also pursuing a successful IT career around said kids... Lots of late nights ensue. Oh, and not into religions.)

I think Mr PDK's problem is

I think Mr PDK's problem is that his stem cells are getting old , wearing out , breaking down .......
 
..... hence , he grows so much beardy stuff to hide the zillions of wrinkles that are covering his once petal soft baby-bottom smooth shiney glow skin  ......
 
A jar of  Stem Cell Therapy (TM )  from your friendly 0800 number on Radio Live should do the trick , return him to youthful radiance and joy .......

I fail to see why women do

I fail to see why women do not have the right to control their own fertility, if only for thier family economic reasons, better to have 2 that are well card for than more who are hungry.  BTW you have it about face on Darwin, we cant feed the 7billion now and wont in the futre as oil suplly falls....so nature will reduce our population for us.
regards
 

Sure a bully with the biggest

Sure a bully with the biggest stick always like to beat up on the smaller ones....some ppl grow out of that however others just stayy a**holes.
So why not go live there, .sounds like you'd fit straight in.  NB I had no problem going there to do do IT ive had several offers over the years.
regards
 

Yeah, excuse my lack of

Yeah, excuse my lack of patriotism, but this country sux - there's plenty of good reasons why our working class are falling over themselves to leave - to me its just a little North Korea with punga fences instead of ballistic missles. The idea that productive people from America would want to move here just seems absurb - good luck explaining to them the need to subsidise maoris to learn the own dead langauge, or give them a $30m ICT boost because equal opportunites aren't enough. Equality is something Americans believe in, and they probably find the modern interpretation of Waitangi principles thoroughly offensive. Can you honestly say that working hard and getting an education will get you ahead? Give me a break - that will only make your parents rich, until you eventually decide to leave, with barely the shirt on your back. I'm not saying that the American health system isn't the most corrupt and inefficient one in the world, nor am I saying that their baby-boomers aren't every bit as greedy and destructive as ours, what I am saying is that their young are still better off there, than here.

no it doesnt, you just have

no it doesnt, you just have an extremist GOP point of view.  Actually I know more than a few americans who have left their nutty country for NZ.
American equality? absolute crap...oh and you lookd after the native americans very well....lets put them on a reservation....an open prison in other words...
Wrong on their young as well, the American tertiary education system now costs more to get a degree than will pay back.
regards
 
 
 

Oil consumption changes 2005

Oil consumption changes 2005 to 2011, the "west" down a bit, China etc up a lot....no wonder oil prices remain robust.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9825
and Saudi's internal increase...its un-controlled pupulation growth and hence demand for water mean less oil on the market....a double whammy really, will make Hubbards curve quite asymetrical.
regards
 

Reference article one, nine

Reference article one, nine and most of the cartoons in-between... China is not our friend and poses a serious threat...
watch on Bloomberg.com the video on Chinese military hacking into western businesses... enjoy!
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-china-s-military-behind-cyber-attacks-...