New Zealand average house values have risen by 0.5% over the past three months - the first such rise since the current downturn began in late 2021. And it has Quotable Value tentatively asking the question: "Has the real estate recovery begun?"
QV operations manager James Wilson said "things are beginning to look a little healthier now".
"For the first time in a while we are seeing value increases in some areas of Aotearoa – especially in places where there is strong demand for entry level housing.
"Real estate agencies are beginning to report growing interest for a reduced number of new properties coming onto the market, with buyers having to compete for the best ones. This is pushing up values once again," Wilson said.
QV said the "modest amount of home value growth" in the latest three months had been driven primarily by first-home buyers outside of the country's main urban areas.
The national average is, however still down -8.2% compared with 12 months ago.
"Generally speaking, it’s a case of the more affordable end propping up the market overall, with areas coming off low value bases continuing to be among the strongest performers," Wilson said.
"The obvious exceptions among the main urban areas we monitor are Tauranga and Queenstown, but in both of these places values at the lower end of the market are growing while values at the upper end are still soft."
The rolling three-month average nationally rose to $893,639 as of the end of August and it is up from $888,999 in July. The rise in national average in the three months ended August followed a value decline of -1.5% over the three months to the end of July, -1.8% over the three months to end of June and -3.5% for the three months to the end of May.
Regionally, the picture is still patchy. In terms of the three-month rolling averages, just five areas rose, while 11 fell. Those rising were: Tauranga (0.6%), Marlborough (0.2%), Christchurch (0.1%), Queenstown (0.8%), and Invercargill (1.5%).
Among the regions seeing declines, the latest QV House Price Index shows the rolling three-monthly rate of reduction has slowed in Auckland (-0.5%), Wellington (-0.6%) and Palmerston North (-0.3%), and increased by less than a percentage point in Whangārei (-2%), Hamilton (-0.7%), Rotorua (-1.4%), New Plymouth (-0.1%), Napier (-1.6%), Hastings (-2.5%), and Dunedin (-1.7%). The rate of decline in Nelson (-2.4%), stayed the same.
However, in terms of just the last month, there were seven regional increases in price in August against nine decreases, with the prices in Auckland, Tauranga, Wellington, Marlborough, Christchurch, Queenstown and Invercargill all rising when compared with July.
And while the country's largest market Auckland was still down overall on a rolling three-month average, the $1,252,282 figure at the end of August was up some $8672 (0.7%) from the end of July. And this followed a very slight increase between June and July. Going back three months, the rate of decline in Auckland values was running at -2.3%. In the past year values are down -9.5%.
Local Auckland QV valuer Hugh Robson said there has been a moderate increase in the volume of sales and fewer properties listed for sale, "which means there’s currently a shortage of stock on the market. Hopefully the normal ‘spring surge’ in listings will restore some equilibrium to this situation".
In the meantime, he said first home buyers remained the most active group in the market.
“There has been a slight increase in activity from owner-occupiers, and agents are reporting some increased activity from investors, but first home buyers are the main group looking and buying right now. The North Shore, Papakura, and Manukau are the areas that have shown the most value movement in recent times."
In the capital, Wellington, the rolling three-monthly rate of home value reduction has eased for the fifth straight month – with the region even posting a $3096 (0.4%) average home value increase in the month of August to $827,196, although this is still down -0.6% over the past three months. However, going back three months, Wellington's rate of decline was running at -2.6%.
Local Wellington QV senior consultant Blake Ngarimu said home values across the Wellington region had experienced "another month of minimal value movement, with Hutt City and Upper Hutt experiencing small reductions, and Kapiti, Porirua, and Wellington City recording small gains".
In Tauranga, while the three-month average rise was just 0.6%, the average price as at August of $1,010,049 was up some $15,258 (1.5%) on July.
But that figure is still -8.1% less than at the same time last year, including -6.2% lower than at the start of 2023.
QV property consultant Derek Turnwald said Tauranga had experienced a quarterly increase in residential values "for the first time in well over a year, with the average residential value rising to above $1,000,000 again".
"First-home buyers remain the most active group in the market despite high interest rates and tight lending conditions. There is even the beginnings of FOMO amongst first-home buyers now, with a shift toward more of a seller’s market becoming evident," he said.
Home values in Christchurch have experienced what QV described as "a modest increase once more" in its rolling three-monthly rate of home value growth – up 0.1% to $727,982. But it’s a smaller average increase than the 0.8% reported last month.
Local Christchurch QV registered valuer Olivia Brownie said while "the cycle appears to be turning" she expected to see some months positive and some negative throughout the remainder of 2023.
"Economic pressures are still having a firm impact on the Canterbury property market, but the downturn does appear to be over now, with a subdued market expected over the coming months," she said.
Meanwhile QV said the "highly volatile" residential property values continue to "zig and zag" in Queenstown.
The average home value in Queenstown has increased by 0.8% this quarter to $1,732,135 – an improvement on the -1.3% quarterly decline reported in last month’s QV House Price Index. And the latest figure is 2.4% higher than the same time last year.
Back on the nationwide picture, QV operations manager James Wilson said though sales volumes have increased from month to month, new listing numbers continue to soften overall.
“It seems market confidence is increasing, but the upcoming election has also encouraged many buyers and sellers to adopt more of a ‘wait and see’ mindset. It’s also important to remember that strong economic headwinds are still blowing, with many households still re-fixing their mortgages at significantly higher interest rates. It’s likely this will continue to restrict investors in particular."
Wilson said as all eyes now looked toward next month’s general election, the housing market would continue to vary considerably from region to region.
"While values begin to strengthen in some areas, the rate of growth is not expected to bounce back at a significant rate. More likely, we’ll continue to witness flat or gently rising value levels in many areas, while other areas continue to bottom out," he said.
"We’ll have a clearer view of what’s next for the housing market after October 14. By that time, we’ll also have some indication of whether or not we’ll see the usual spring surge in listings that we typically experience around this time of year."
164 Comments
The winter housing market has seen record low transactions.
The number of properties available for sale, compared to the peak, has increased 85.73%.
The amount of annual home sales transactions has dropped by 49% vs 2021.
I wouldn't read too much into such a tiny data set i.e sales in the last 3 months.
Indeed. Look at the facts. Record low sales, and increasing listings. Remember housing was already unaffordable pre the covid boom at 5% rates. The 2% loans are increasingly rolling over to 7% and tickets clippers are all pumping the natative that all is well.
What they really want is turnover revenue.
If you are thinking of buying please don't wait too long. It is unlikely prices will take off but demand for good homes and land is increasing. There are still some good opportunities but this won't last. If you follow the advice of some on this site to wait you will definitely regret it......
I don't have a vested interest (well except my own home but I really don't care about its value). But I do agree that people shouldn't be put off buying from the doom in these comments, its been gloomy here for decades. A recovery in the housing market looks quite possible from here - despite the fact houses are already very unaffordable (but that has never stopped it before). I'd give it 50/50 odds right now, particularly with National almost guaranteed to win the election.
People need to make their own decisions based on what they can afford, at the moment I don't think FOMO or FOOP should come into it (particularly as no one can predict the future). If you don't try and predict the future, in almost all cases it is better financially to rent right now, but some may be very sick of renting.
That sounds exactly like the BS someone would spin in job interviews - my biggest weakness is I work too hard, NZ has a housing crisis because we're brimming with economic success!
Let's put the conjecture aside and see what the numbers suggest:
NZ has the highest homelessness rate in the OECD with 1% of all Kiwis homeless in 2018.
The average Kiwi pays the highest proportion of their income towards housing cost in the OECD. At the same time, Stats NZ reports that 21.5 percent of housing stock in NZ is affected by dampness (that is, sometimes or always damp) and 16.9 percent had visible mould larger than A4 size at least some of the time.
That sounds exactly like the BS someone would spin in job interviews - my biggest weakness is I work too hard, NZ has a housing crisis because we're brimming with economic success!
Compared to places with really cheap housing, it is.
Can you highlight some places in 2023 with super cheap housing (say a price to income of 1:1 or 2:1), that have really functional, prosperous societies?
Stats that say we're the worst of something are only showing us exceptionalism by small degree. The story in NZ, isn't very different than most places.
By your flawed logic, Pakistan must be paradise to live in since their nationwide house price-to-income ratio is 12 and Belgium a complete s**thole in comparison with 6.9. Or is it because "cheap" houses by Western standards in Karachi are out of reach for many locals who don't have decent economic opportunities for earning a proper wage.
That being said, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland - all had price to income ratios of under 3 in Q1-23.
That article puts Dallas and Charlotte at a multiple of 4. Phoenix, Denver and Boston all between 4 and 5? All well-under Auckland's ~9.
I am instead arguing the opposite - high housing costs are making us less prosperous and less functional. Just the other day at an industry summit, we discussed the ridiculous wage demands from skilled workers to move to our major urban areas from overseas or the regions.
It is not just young Kiwis who are struggling with the high housing costs, but also productive businesses employing skilled workers at premiums just to cover those high costs. Many are left with no other option than to offshore their productive operations at a big loss to our economy.
Yeah I tend to agree. We watch some US house do-up shows, nothing seems cheap over there anymore. Last night's one was 350k USD ($600k NZ) for a very small house on the outskirts of Atlanta Georgia. Not much infrastructure around by the looks of it, just endless roads with no footpaths, the area looked pretty rough. Give me Auckland any day!
Atlanta also has a wildly more successful economy than Auckland boasting much higher wages. The Atlanta metro area has US' third-largest concentration of Fortune 500 companies and a booming regional tech sector.
In short, Atlanta offers significantly more economic opportunities for people to service a huge mortgage than Auckland does.
I agree with the infrastructure and troubled neighbourhood problems having been there personally. The city despite its economic success sits in the deep South after-all.
"I agree with the infrastructure and troubled neighbourhood problems having been there personally. The city despite its economic success sits in the deep South after-all."
Could that suggest that "economic success" doesn't necessarily translate into community wellbeing?
Who said anything about 'cheap'.
How about 'reasonable' which is what we could have it we had reasonable 'leaders' instead of the likes of 7 house Luxon,JK and every other MP and main Party who has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo and pumping it.
Houses do no have to be the play thing of a few. Maintain the same course and property will continue to be gathered up by fewer and fewer.
That is is not desirable.
FHB's need to vote TOP.
Rastus.....be careful what you wish for. I watched Sky News Australia channel last night and I was dumbfounded about what's happening with youth crime and increased temperatures in Australia:
Youth crimes in Melbourne comprise audacious kidnapping of other teens off the streets and STABBING them....two that day. Teens in cars deliberately running into innocent people on the street.....one that day and others recently.
The citizens of Brisbane are now terrified by gangs of youths roaming the streets and committing all manner of crimes including burning down a newly-constructed playground worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
And the news also dwelt on the extensive pre-burning of potential fire-spreading vegetation growth around Melbourne and Sydney well before the usual summer season fires, as they are predicting extreme fire risk this summer due to even far higher temperatures than recent heatwaves. There was even a 10-minute segment from an expert instructing people what to do in the event that a fire races through your suburb......you have to flee bloody fast.
Pretty sobering stuff if you are "leaving" New Zeland, with its so-called crime-wave of ramraids, for the eldorado across the Tasman.
Come onnnnn! I'm sure you sometimes see your home's value in your banking app, and feel that rush of euphoria.
I just checked mine, it's up about 10% since I last checked a couple months back, but we're still $100k down on our 2021 purchase price. Sounds a lot like Bitcoin.
If someone is buying a house to live in, then it isn't an investment. So in some ways it doesn't matter when you buy as long as you can afford it and can afford it if interest rates rise in the future etc. But I have learnt that there is always another house around the corner. But I would be more concerned over where one buys and making sure it isn't close to any flooding areas or waterfronts, where in the future you may find it difficult to get insurance, or at an affordable level.
Ultimately today price is driven by affordability and availability of credit. (As demand is maintained by limited stock).
Salary increases have largely been canceled out (Most people feel poorer or similar to a few years ago). That’s why housing has found a new equilibrium, That 10K salary increase, goes directly on the 10k increase in mortgage payments.
The big question is as stock increases (spring/summer) is their sufficient demand that ensures affordability is still the primary metric ? This is a big unknown.
Bar a major global event, my take is house prices will remain stagnant for short to medium future (ie overpriced). Therefore no need to rush. With a reasonable chance of further house price decreases.
To me the upside of buying now seems small. As even if limited supply, credit/affordability is not going to change rapidly.
Excellent news for hard-working multiple-property owning kiwis who are the backbone of our society, providing not only quality accommodation but also work for gardeners, builders, plumbers, mortgage brokers, accountants, lawyers and professions across the board. Cheers!
Totally agree.
Give this younger generations a break.
The greedy generation (Baby boomers) don't care at all about those coming behind them they all me,me,me like their blue team mate Chris Luxon who wants to restart the Ponzi.
Come on New Zealanders we are better than this housing is for family's to live in not a business or a good investment at the moment.
There is heaps of other things to invest in,Commercial property, Shares ,start ups, maybe someone starting in business.
The social consequences of using your housing market as a Ponzi is too high look were we have end up sense the GSC.
"B-b-b-but we had 3 mortgages at 25% interest rates". The bootstraps generation that couldn't save hard for a few years and pay cash for the house with help from double digit term deposit rates. It was only 3 x one's wages to buy back then and that's the average. Young people today are saving 3 x their wages just for a down payment, and I don't see any banks paying 15%+ for a term deposit.
I had a good laugh at this cartoon yesterday - sums things up really well i though :)
https://preview.redd.it/qar1k8lw0knb1.png?width=768&auto=webp&s=8ff885a…
Ah, but shares are too risky!
Ignore all those property owners in negative equity through the ages - it's very hard to lose more than 100% of your investment in shares, but relatively common in property.
People want the solidity and confidence that comes from owning a wooden box built on a natural disaster ridden island over a slice of a few thousand companies that define the world economy.
Pretty rare for the entire stock market to go to zero.. in fact, I'm somewhat certain its never happened. Individual stocks do it all the time, one of my speculative gold mining stocks is doing it right now. I'm sure there is some common saying about it, You've got to break a few eggs to make a basket or something..
Nothing, but you'd have to be utterly incompetent or living through some kind of catastrophic societal collapse for that to happen.
What have you got when you lose 150% of your equity in a house?
How much easier is to to diversify a share portfolio than a property portfolio? I could buy shares in the US or UK this afternoon if I wanted to.
Maybe not catastrophic yet, more a slow painful slide into societal collapse. Sadly I believe we’re watching it unfold before our very eyes. I certainly hope I’m wrong but things don’t look all rosy out there, and pumping an already unaffordable housing market is hardly a promising solution if that’s what National have in mind.
I have no idea who to vote for that can make any real changes to this soulless system we find ourselves in.
Some are paying 20 to 30 million for homes, a house in pt chev sold for about 10 million.
They are overvaluing real estate while undervaluing relationships. Within a few years some of these couples will be on the rocks.
Ali Williams is doing well with his zuru missus, helicopters and water views. But what about the kids from his previous partner, living in a broken home.
How do they get that +0.5% figure? Looking at that table where most places are -ve (including auckland and welly where you'd assume most of the sales were) it doesn't look right somehow
(If you take the average of those quarterly changes you get -0.6%. Am I missing something...?)
The only way to fully understand the current market is to get along to the auction rooms.
Did this a couple of weeks ago and it was like going to a funeral.
Don,t see the market going anywhere fast as long as interest rates are high.
At the end of the day the Aussie cartel ANZ,BNZ,Westpac,ASB, control our property market how sad is that and they are very greedy.
The other factor is politicians make dump decisions like turning housing into a Ponzi like the master himself John Key and me to Chris luxon wanting to do the same thing.
Wake up before its to late again NZ.
Start thinking of the younger generations
3 month rolling average went from $888,930.00 in May to $893,639.00 in August. That's +0.5%. You can't just average the change within each market, because it doesn't account for the proportional size of the market. i.e. a 10% drop in Invercargill is only worth about $46k, but a 3% increase in Queenstown is worth about $51k.
No one should read too much into this. The main centers are all down over the last three months except for Christchurch, up a whopping 0.1%.
Interest rate risk remains to the upside in the US, hence here unless our leaders want to completely decimate the value of the NZ dollar and make everything in this country even less affordable than it currently is.
There may be a brief uptick after the election, but until the interest rate outlook changes, and/or average salaries increase by 50%, expect NZ housing market to continue its downward slide.
It may not be written down, but that's the effect in the real world.
If the commenter Jfoe is right, concern about the NZ dollar is why RBNZ sold $4B a few months ago, when it was worth 64 cents: it plans to have to buy up NZ dollars when it fails to match future increases by the Fed (Jfoe thinks that RBNZ is actually planning to cut rates in early 2024). Either way, but especially in the latter case, I don't think $4B is nearly enough to offset global demand for NZ dollars falling off a cliff if the usual interest premium for NZGBs (vs. US Treasuries) disappears.
NZ is a minnow, even compared to Oz. Plus, we don't export much besides milk powder and unprocessed logs. RBNZ is not the ECB or BoJ.
A better question might be: when was the last time RBNZ didn't follow the Fed for a sustained period of time? (I don't know the answer, but here are a couple of charts. They look pretty similar to me):
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-decisions
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart
Referencing the housing market, from the article; "things are beginning to look a little healthier now".
I disagree. A healthy housing market would involve much lower property values. I would describe today’s market as fetid, decadent, infested by greed and toxic to societal wellbeing.
I believe that we are living through a bull-trap. If I am wrong and prices continue to permanently rise, NZ is in huge trouble. Innovation and productivity would continue to decline, the gap between the rich and poor would grow, crime and poverty would skyrocket. Long term we’d be worse off than if this housing bubble popped and corrected.
Remains to be seen what influence a National govt can have on property prices given interest rates, however you should never underestimate the irrationality of human behaviour and greed. However, I remain hopeful that they won’t be able to stop the correction in prices, even though they have adopted the attitude of ‘hold my beer.’
Our house market is a function of our entire society, not just government.
If you shrink household sizes, and funnel most of our population into relatively small areas, this scenario is mostly inevitable. Unless you, you know make more houses, or people live differently.
Yes indeed we got a taste of what would happen with covid if we cut that out, pressure on improving working conditions and wages while reduced pressure on housing, can't have that of course so taps cranked to full to get us back to a trend of lower wages higher costs economy.
Amen to that, PREFU today or InThePoo, the soft landing is slipping away going to be at least a Medium Landing with possibility of a plane crash short of the runway. It looks like the S and P 500 has put in a double top, nothing good normally follows. on the positive side the El Nino will dry up the mud in Auckland, be bad for diary and red meat later on though. Nats have 40%... probably going to grow given the Act stumbling around confidence and supply, NZ does not dysfunction governance or Co
With a National / Act government looking likely, together with their absurd housing policies that will inflate prices and most likely reduce supply, I predict house prices will rise further.
.... Probably until the ensuing crash wipes out NZ Inc. because interest rates have risen to the moon because we'll be seen as a high-risk place to park money and nobody will lend to us. No reduction in the OCR will fix this issue. And immigrants stop seeing NZ a good place to be because they'll be renters for life. Will people finally realise houses are a terrible "investment"?
At that point - Will people stop buying houses at the absolute maximum they can afford while expecting un-taxed capital gains to make it all worthwhile?
Sadly, I hoped people would get the message this time. But no. National / Act are going to ensure total destruction. After we've picked ourselves up and finally realised our greed has destroyed us - do you think we'll be able to recover?
Somehow, I doubt it. We'll no longer own what's left on NZ Inc.
All of them in the last 2 decades.
It doesn't matter which might've had the highest increase. Who's had the highest decrease? Obviously it's the will of the people and the market to get rich from owning property. What's the government going to do? Regulate it? Ban it? Fight a war against it? "but what about my wealth, my investment, my retirement, free market..."
We haven't even had the downturn yet. Considerable challenges lie ahead and trend is your friend. While a stabilized housing market is certainly a good thing on the surface, once you scratch this surface, there is little in fundamental factors supporting this bounce as being sustainable.
For many entering the market for the first time, a lot of dead money will be paid out in interest on an asset that will likely resume its decline once the true reality sets in about our still sinking, increasingly debt saturated economy. Why overpay? Is that really making your money work hard?
Rabobank @ 6.25% for 12-months or 5.5% Kiwibonds is where the smart money parks waiting for true distress driven bargains....
God help NZ.
I work in a btb sector that that touches all industries. Revenue growth across all markets is muted to say the least, so the alleged boom in incomes that will support any house price growth isnt there. Interest rates will be higher for longer than most expect. This doesn't sound like a recipe for a housing market upswing.
Most of the clients I work with are all seeing deteriorating sales, shrinking pipelines etc. Not necessarily catastrophic yet, but enough to think twice about expenditure, hiring plans etc.
As per your comment I don't see how this is conducive to a housing boom, but then again getting rich off housing is the entire raison d'etre of Kiwi society these days so what do I know?
Is it any wonder 'investors' get a bad rap...check out the names of some of their companies;
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132598989/mega-landlords-the-property-…
Ōpōtiki may be a small town, but that doesn't mean it's escaped the eyes of investors, and one husband and wife own 54 properties in it.
The vast majority of these, 50, were residential, with six being vacant lots, and 18 recorded as being multi-unit, multi-property, or flats, suggesting the number of dwellings owned by the pair was likely higher than 54.Christopher and Joanne Donkin’s accumulation of homes has resulted in them owning or part owning about 4% of all the homes in district, and on a single street it is not uncommon for the Donkins to own up to eight properties.
Other than three properties held in their names, the Donkins’ ownership is largely held under various companies, including C & J Donkin Enterprises Ltd, Tall Poppies Trustee Company Ltd, and Jardine Holdings Ltd, and the more creatively named I M Broke 2 Ltd, Filthy Rich Ltd and Who Cares Ltd.
All of these companies were wholly owned or 50% owned by parent company Tall Poppies Trustee Company Limited, which in turn is 50/50 owned by the husband and wife.
I previously missed this line from the article as well.."By comparing the price the Donkins bought their properties at to the properties’ estimates value today, the unrealised capital gain on the portfolio sat at more than $11.6 million, the vast majority of which would be untaxed if the properties were sold.""
Makes me feel great when I look at my PAYE each year...glad a share of my hard earned money is going to help subsidise these guys mortgage interest deductions..
Yes the WWF supplement was a bad idea an just moved the price up. There is little choice this year but honestly I have tried a selection and now self interest must bear out.
2017 - Jbird with her "prices will come down" pitch. Houses prices continue to ascend with some acceleration. Hmmm.
2020 - Jbird with "steady hand", in fairness the Govt did a great job managing large parts of the COVID response in my opinion, but the house prices!!! BOOM up to 32% in 2021... ouchy.
2023 - Act, don't love all their policies, least bad in my opinion, Labour? Just no, self harm. National? If Nic was the boss maybe but Chris is a bit lost I think. Greens? see Labour. TOP, some good policies but some moon-shot bad.
Mayyyyybe if Nic was the boss. But as the finance spokesperson, she seems to lack a primary level understanding of maths. Her interview with Jack Tame is worth the watch if you want to see the pure lack of understanding how numbers actually work. So that's a hard pass from me.
It's a vote for the least worst and at the moment I think that's Act or TOP. But as you say, some weird ideas.
She's a qualified journalist, not a finance person. Hence her struggles at being on the receiving end of tough questions, antithesis of what a journalist is trained for.
A journalist is taught how to formulate questions, research the facts behind those questions and then ask the questions facts prepared to try catch the interviewee out. Wouldn't surprise me if she asked Jack if he would divulge her the question list a couple of days before the interview so she could do her research.
Yeah agreed, I really cannot understand why they fail. Jack is super non-combative, plain-speaking. It should be a doodle. It's embarrassing to see people paid to talk about their policies, the thinking behind them and the expected changes they want to see, look like they have been hit with a dead fish.
This is a free public-service announcement for National Pollies, do some actual practice at interviews!!!!! Pay particular focus to the most obvious questions! I don't care what Labour say, I have tuned them out as background noise.
After wasting at least 5 minutes of back and forth avoiding questions while not actually providing any alternate views, eg "The average will be over $2m and amount < 2000" x5, Jack had a section on credibility. Neither of these two are credible, they simply can not answer to their own policy. Majorly disappointed.
PREFU out, budgets tight, National already in a revenue hole with these tax cuts. Good lord.
It still amazes me that so many people on this forum - who should know better - still blame Jacinda & Labour for the housing price boom!
Credit where credit is due. It was the RBNZ that dropped rates to sub 3% and sub 2% and dropped the LVR regulations.
Jacinda & Labour may have stood idly by and watched the destruction. Fair call.
But the author of that destruction is the RBNZ and no one else.
But, please do blame Jacinda & Labour for the largest house building boom ever.
No, actually that was a joint effort between Jacinda & Labour and the RBNZ.
If your mortgage is around 800k the weekly payments have climbed from $760 @3% to $1260 @7.5% so $500 per week extra add on top inflation a huge amount of people will be struggling financially. Only a matter of time before the crap hit the fan, at $1260 per week this is $200 more than average income earner makes after tax.
Dead cat bounce? Just like in 2009-2010 in the USA during the GFC.
https://www.americanactionforum.org/housing-chartbook/case-shiller/
Another OCR/banks rate rise after the election, a recession, and a flood of listings as the 5 year Brightline period is scrapped, and even National won't be able to save this beast.
Haha an increase in overpriced homes is considered healthy. I guess when you believe the overall $ value of 'the market' is all that matters, that ever increasing debt sucking the productivity out of the majority of the people and 'the economy' for the illusion of "wealth" is healthy, and no concept how this serves the betterment of society, one would have this perverse perspective.
"Modest amount of home value growth"
If it said "price increases" would we be as accepting or would we react the same way we do about 'normal' inflation?
Essentially, housing is the basic need of human. Encouraging business out of it is not only counter-productive to our socio-economic stability but also it creates some other problems like future instability of criminology management. It is a shame that all the major political parties are not addressing the issue rather trying to save the landlords, who are backing their parties. As a matter of fact, the less fortunate new-comers are going to suffer in upcoming days because there is no limitation on what one person can own. Out of greed no landlords want to buy ethically. Hence, it seems to be going to an election to choose who can control this group of people and save rest of the renter nationals. Effectively, a wealth tax can help on this approach. Instead of pursuing the wealth tax in overall assets, regulation can be crafted only to address the housing sector. Once again a healthier housing business still can be maintained in a regulated way.
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