The housing market looks like it ended the peak summer selling season with new listings and average asking prices in March both down compared to February and a huge overhang of unsold stock as we head towards the quieter months of winter, according to the latest figures from property website Realestate.co.nz.
March is usually the busiest month of the year for the residential property market and Realestate.co.nz received 11,455 new listings in March, up 23.9% compared to March last year.
However March's new listings were down slightly (-333) compared to February which could signal a slight softening of the market, although the drop in new listings could also have been due to the Easter break falling at the end of March this year.
The national average asking price also dropped by almost $20,000, from $927,312 in February to $907,483 in March, but was still up by $23,660 (+2.7%) compared to March last year.
But the elephant in the housing market room is the amount of unsold stock on the market as the summer selling season comes to an end.
Realestate.co.nz had a total of 33,425 properties for sale on its books at the end of March which was the highest it has been in any month of the year since May 2015.
The only other time since 2015 when stock levels have been above 30,000 was in February this year and stock levels continued to increase between February and March, even though the number of new listings declined between February and March.
That suggests the market pendulum is swinging ever more strongly in buyers' favour as we head towards winter, and with plenty of stock to choose from they can afford to to take their time and are likely to drive a hard bargain on price when they find something that suits them.
The charts below show Realestate.co.nz's latest listings and stock figures for all regions.
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186 Comments
In an unhinged market like ours, which has been disconnected from basic fundamentals and greed-driven for way too long, things are about to get really interesting!!!
Unhinged...about covers it.
Talking to some fringe investors over the weekend. All were topping up payments and complaining about it. All calming themselves with "rates are about to go down again" comments.
Zero perspective that we are simply back to the low end of normal, or that price and debt load was out of balance.
⛽️ +🍿 = 🔥
Words such as "unhinged", "greed-driven" and so forth are purely emotive...... They add up to nothing/nought. ⭕️
They are not a good substitute for objective thinking and robust analysis.
TTP
by tothepoint | 2nd Apr 24, 9:19am
Words such as "unhinged", "greed-driven" and so forth are purely emotive...... They add up to nothing/nought. ⭕️
They are not a good substitute for objective thinking and robust analysis.
TTP
Don't know about your circle Tim but given the absolute cluster f*%$ we call a housing market in NZ and how critical it is to our whole social fabric, i believe feeling emotive is quite a big thing right now and wholly justified for many many NZ'rs.
You do you though.
They actually are relevant and important as they are emotionally driven.. and as with the boom when our buyers were driven by human emotion not logic causing FOMO. The emotion will also cause the fall when people realize the real value of houses in a market with cheap credit and with higher unemployment is far below the current floor.
Watching emotion when asset bubbles rise and fall is key. Humans trade on emotion far more than logic.
This. Housing sales and share investments are far more emotional and far less objectively reasoned. Trading on emotion is the majority practice. Hence why a cat or parrots can out perform hedgefund managers and sharemarket traders. To animals the stocks they choose have zero emotional weight. Likewise NZs housing market is not just layers of emotion but also myths, old wives tales, superstition, and traditional emotional influences of previous generations on top. NZs housing market is multilayered cake of emotion with deep rich heavy layers that are truly sickening to the body when we consume too much.
Listings up while treasury yields also up.. recipe for DISASTER
Agree but my god, the spruikers are well and truly out of the wooodwork! Everyone I know that is in the ‘Only thing worth investing in is property’ camp can barely contain their excitement at rates returning back to a ‘normal’ 2-3% soon.
DP
Finally some good news. First home buyers can take their time as there is no need to rush in and buy. Being a boomer with more than enough income to live well I am not concerned to hear this. The perfect scenario would be mortgage interest rates dropping and house prices confusing to ease. They who are entering the market not seeing prices run away from them as they build a deposit.
The current downturn has a long way to play out. We have high stock levels .. and ocr/rates that won't drop soon (inflation locally and overseas is sticky) .. and will see unemployment and forced sales rise. Apart from the concept of demand from immigration exceeding new supply there is no reason for a rise (and the net gain in IQ is nagative)
No need to buy. As happened in ireland and perhaps for young people the better move is to Aus for a few years.
Aussie prices up last 3 consecutive quarters report today.
It's going to hold this high until the end of the summer. Immigrants can't buy for a while, they get to endure the joys of renting, while those who can are on the list departing NZ.
"until the end of summer"? We have been in autumn for a whole month
he didn't say this summer, did he..
Property prices in Auckland over the year to February increased 3.72%...so much for the great property crash I've been hearing about here.
Tasman district median price:
Jan '24 900,000
Feb '24 760,000
Feb '23 850,000
Sales
Feb '23 - 61
Feb '24 - 81
Yet the median price dropped. Impression: Some more mid-tier places and bottom priced places selling with more vendors starting to take lower offers, and although the many 1m+ properties are still selling occasionally (likely the cause of the median increase Jan '24 given sales are the least since 2016 in the region), they aren't holding the prices they'd hoped. The country is far bigger than just Auckland.
Some property does exist outside of Awkland.
Hey Winger, you just got back from Hollywood right? Lala land you in obviously?
Do you see we have NZ property down -20 to -48% drop in real terms, over the last 3 years and it's still flailing.
In any language (including LaLa speak) we are deep in the Crashometer warning, Redline territory!
It's crap that there's a property crash.......around here anyway. Maybe there's a crash where you live. My neighbour just sold for $300k over CV.
You're wasting your time Wingman, Gecko believes what she wants, and no amount of data (recent REINZ HPI up) is going to change that.
She's a goldbug too. And that's about the worst bet there is. All this bearishness.....probably a good time to buy.
Wingman
Am out there now looking for my next project. What is the old Buffet saying sell when everyone is buying and buy when everyone is selling. If I can find my next project wether I pay 10 percent to much for it dpsent matter in a 10 to 20 year hold. Another Buffet saying when you buy a share you do it on the analogy that you can't sell it for 10 yrs.
Colin - but Buffet only buys businesses if the fundamentals make sense and are priced well so they represent good value. Otherwise he holds onto his cash. I suspect he would run a mile from NZ property at the moment lol.
Gold Investors and Speculators understand the thesis for Precious Metals in a Diversified portfolio.
Gold Investors and Speculators that enthuse about the thesis are labelled Goldbugs by those consciously or unconsciously ignorant of the thesis.
to enter timeframes for Gold in NZ$. You'll see that 1 Oz Gold in USD$ and NZD$ valued significantly higher:
- as I type
Over the last:
- 1year
- 5 years
- 10 years
- All Time
For those Gold Investors and Speculators, who have patiently observed Global MMT since GFC 1 and excess printing of Fiat Currency (hence the Asset Bubbles of Residential Property) the current price spike of Gold (will it go parabolic for a year or two...!) was well predicted for those prepared to Listen.
Keep up the white knuckle clutching of them Pro-Property-Pearls you two......the rotting corpse of the NZ housing Ponzi will not reanimate meaningfully.....what you see now and believe is a sign of life, is just the false hope of the death rattle......
Goldbugs be dammed:):):) hahahaha
"Goldbugs be dammed:):):) hahahaha".
Summarises your intellect perfectly!
You talking about Intellect? Do you even know what that word means? You have repeatedly proved your lack of it
Gold Investors and Speculators understand the thesis for Precious Metals in a Diversified portfolio.
Gold Investors and Speculators that enthuse about the thesis are labelled Goldbugs by those consciously or unconsciously ignorant of the thesis.
to enter timeframes for Gold in NZ$. You'll see that 1 Oz Gold in USD$ and NZD$ valued significantly higher:
- as I type
Over the last:
- 1year
- 5 years
- 10 years
- All Time
For those Gold Investors and Speculators, who have patiently observed Global MMT since GFC 1 and excess printing of Fiat Currency (hence the Asset Bubbles of Residential Property) the current price spike of Gold (will it go parabolic for a year or two...!) was well predicted for those prepared to Listen.
Gold Investors and Speculators understand the thesis for Precious Metals in a Diversified portfolio.
Gold Investors and Speculators that enthuse about the thesis are labelled Goldbugs by those consciously or unconsciously ignorant of the thesis.
to enter timeframes for Gold in NZ$. You'll see that 1 Oz Gold in USD$ and NZD$ valued significantly higher:
- as I type
Over the last:
- 1year
- 5 years
- 10 years
- All Time
For those Gold Investors and Speculators, who have patiently observed Global MMT since GFC 1 and excess printing of Fiat Currency (hence the Asset Bubbles of Residential Property) the current price spike of Gold (will it go parabolic for a year or two...!) was well predicted for those prepared to Listen.
Also keeps harping on about in real terms, like thats relevant somehow. Inflation is the leveraged buyers friend,
Buy a cake, but by the time you account for inflation you are only making payments for the eggs.
Two statements that have been made about house prices that are factually correct:
1) "NZ property down -20 to -48% drop in real terms, over the last 3 years"
2) "recent REINZ HPI up"
They have different time periods so people are talking about different points.
People have expectations on future house prices which may vary due to differences in:
1) in their area of interest (geographical location, price point, market segment, property type, etc)
2) with different time periods - e.g some may be 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, etc
Expectations of future house prices in the time period of their expectations are formed using different methodologies.
Property price bulls can buy, property price bears can sell - that's a market.
And the bulls should be fully cognisant of what a bull-trap is. ;-)
I wouldn't call it a crash while prices are still highly unaffordable but to be fair that's a drop in real terms. Median house price to household income dropped 3-4% in Auckland over the period you mentioned and around 2% on CPI.
Not a great time to sell it would seem, unless you have your place immaculate, shiny, and already done as is what the majority seem to want to buy given the cost of reno's still.
As prices stay stagnant it's still a good time to sell if you're an owner occupier moving from A to B. If you're selling a second home or investment property bought more than 5 years ago it's also still a great time to sell, you'd be creaming it on the capital gain over that period.
.
Its the best time to sell your own home. Cash out, wait and select next house very slowly and carefully with a cash offer.
"If you're selling a second home or investment property bought more than 5 years ago it's also still a great time to sell, you'd be creaming it on the capital gain over that period."
Subject to how borrowing and ownership costs has been accounted for. They could also be facing an unanticipated tax bill because the 'taxable activity' the investor claimed to be engaging in has now changed to being an outright grab for untaxed capital gains. They'd be best to see an accountant.
Surely no property speculators have been lying about intent, to evade tax???
Also in this Realestate.co.nz report but not mentioned in this article were Auckland asking prices up 1.5% and Wellington up 1.6% on the month. Why not report the whole story? 🥂
Asking price != selling price.
Yes, Realestate.co.nz records asking prices, not selling prices, for all regions and no matter if asking prices go up or down.
That equates to "vendors being disillusioned "
Realestate.co.nz had a total of 33,425 properties for sale on its books at the end of March which was the highest it has been in any month of the year since May 2015.
But is that a fair comparison? How many people/houses were there back in 2015?
Don't figures like this need some sort of "per capita" measure to be meaningful?
I do think "shed load" should be shedload like payload. It's possibly a polite way of saying sh*tload and was first seen in the 1990s.
Still a long way to go for RE yields to represent fair risk on capital. Some distressed sales may flicker the crashometer.
Seems like a quick flood of properties hitting the market before the bright line gets dropped to 2 years.
Do-gooders getting in quick to ensure they pay the tax?
How many will try to get in front of the rush and try for a delayed settlement to avoid paying their share in speculative gain?
From the IRD website: "For tax purposes, a property is generally acquired on the date a binding sale and purchase agreement is entered into (even if some standard conditions like getting finance or a building report still need to be met)."
So it doesn't matter if they have a longer settlement date, they will get stung if the S&P gets signed prior to the 2 year rule. Wonder how many will get done by this one.
Anecdotal but in Twizel I've never seen so many for sale signs! Twizel is mostly batches (well, a new 4 bedroom with a Malibu out the front), boomers (retirees from CHCH/Dud) and builders getting in on the wave of the latter.
Residential Auction: 1427 River Road, Flagstaff, Hamilton | Bayleys.
GV $1.1, sold $880k.. We also sold well under last week (but a price I'm happy with).
According to Homes, last sold 2012 for $487k. Selling at $800k that gives an annual gross return of about 4.9%.
What the actual return was for an OO will be: less all costs (rates, mortgage interest, selling fees, maintenance, etc) and then adding back the economic benefit of not having to pay rent on an equivalent property. Without knowing all the aforementioned variables, I'd guess they might have broke even (above the risk free rate of return, i.e. govt bonds) or made a tiny nominal gain that in real terms may have been wiped out. I'm guessing.
If it was a rental, then I'd guess they'll be crowing about the gain above what they originally paid and they'll never do the maths as to what the annual return really was. And, depending on how the finance was structured, and whether they truly engaged in the taxable activity they pretended to (being taxable rental income), they may get some interesting questions from IRD - more likely from their accountant first, if they have one - about whether the capital gain should be taxed or not.
Just to be clear - this is my ongoing assault on the nonsense that people make 'heaps' of money buying residential property to rent and the nonsense that house prices double every 10 years (an annual rate of return of 7.2%) and all that doubling is untaxed capital gain.
Compare it to the asking price of new stuff
With the NZD tumbling the chances of rates coming down are greatly reduced.Seems like many people are starting to understand this.we also have a situation where most people would not be able to afford the house they live in on a income basis,in Auckland only top 10% of earners can afford to buy a house from scratch even with a deposit. As many people have to sell due to monthly mortgage payments pushing higher when refinancing we will probably see house price’s tumble to add to the 20% already seen over last couple of years
The full weight of debt yet to arrive....and from onewoof.
I agree with the article Averageman, there's more pain to come. Isn't it ironic though, that you quote the same OneRoof you and so many make fun of, now that it suits your narrative?
Kelvin Davidson is about the only sane voice on onewoof. And even he slips from time to time.
Don't you think quoting speculand's mouthpiece really highlights the point though...?
So you wouldn't have a problem quoting T Alexander either, after rubbishing him repeatedly, if he said what you wanted to hear ?
The smart property speculators have sold and banked the money. Why would anyone pay a million dollars for a house and rent it out for 40k a year less expenses while you could be making 60k just in a term deposit with no hassle. I know we have a few speculators on here but basically they are the one who believed own BS and didn’t see the downturn coming, the reason for stock level rise is a huge amount of people trying to get out house market before the downturn accelerates.
Wrong thread perhaps? We're discussing integrity in quotations.
Quite the opposite picture in Oz
"Almost four in 10 people taking out a mortgage now are landlords."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-02/house-prices-continue-to-rise-as…
Aussie housing market is truly SinSinNutty. if we are having it tough, they are going to hit even harder.
Yeah Aussie is absurd, at least in Sydney (which is the only area I follow closely owing to how many friends have moved there over the past decade).
Must surely be at the point where in many instances you are no better off over there earning bigger $$$ when weighing up versus comparatively more affordable housing here, whether buying or renting (if you can even get a rental there).
We looked at moving but considering we would only want to go to Sydney or Melbourne, the numbers don't stack up for us.
"... they are going to hit even harder."
Leading up to the GFC, many big lenders knew what was coming. Many thought the GFC was years away and got seriously caught when it came roughly on time. They could have pulled back to minimise the damage. But they would need to do so collectively. Just one or two doing it wouldn't have done anything much except make the well behaved ones lose money while the other creamed it, and when it hit, even the 'good ones' would be in the same boat. Thus they just continued on knowing full well central banks and government would step in to rescue them. Some would die. But that was a risk they were willing to take. And closely analysing the balance sheets of other banks to ensure they were one notch above them became a full time thing.
Not saying Oz banks are in this boat. Just adding some context with reference to a past event.
Still a shed load of mortgagors still to move onto current interest rates.
Kelvin Davidson suggests as many as 59% will be re-fixing at at-least 1% more. Doesn't sound like much but for many it will be the straw that breaks the camels back. I expect many current listings will be in this camp. I.e. have seen what's coming and have listed in advance. https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/more-mortgage-pain-coming-59-of-home-loa…
The problem is though ... as time moves forward, so will the destress. And the pressure to sell - most likely from banks that see no way out - will mount. I can't see prices going up over winter. In fact, quite the reverse.
An earlier (but already too late) cut in the OCR may stabilise things but probably not enough to satisfy banks.
Agreed. The cheapness of debt has masked the reality of serviceability, As debt returns to its normal levels the blocks at the bottom of the jenga tower get pulled out.
"That suggests the market pendulum is swinging ever more strongly in buyers' favour as we head towards winter, and with plenty of stock to choose from they can afford to to take their time and are likely to drive a hard bargain on price when they find something that suits them"
Yes, this is entirely as expected! - more price falls imminent. I think once released in May, the April HPI will reveal a continuance of the downtrend that began early 2022. This bloat of unsold inventory is a timely wake up call for Property Spruikers. I think there is a ways to go before a sustainable upswing can commence.
It will be interesting. The number of businesses 'restructuring' (layoffs) is on the rise... the number of jobs on offer is falling .. we cant continue to bring in unskilled immigrants without jobs 4 them ... can we?. Forced sales and landlord sales will rise .. but without new buyers coming in.
Inflation is keeping the rbnz from switching the ocr downwards
possible there will als be a net emigration as people move to Oz?
I am keen to be proven wrong but suspect the current situation has a long way to play out.. and nz house prices are very unlikely to rise anything soon..but probability for large falls
opportunities for investment are outside of property for the next few years.
Got some spare cash? Now's a great time to dip your toes in the property market. It says so right here...
If you bought in the last year or two, there's a good chance you've drawn a winner.
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/house-price-predictions
I nearly choked when reading your comment - I would ask if you really believe that but what’s the point. It’s not like they are heavily reliant on this cluster continuing eh wingman….
https://www.opespartners.co.nz
Opes Partners is a New Zealand property investment company that helps people grow their wealth through investment properties.
Published 13 Mar 2024 ... Before the last GDP results (21 March 2024)
The Spruikers are starting to look like the Black Knight
For some listings - the White Knights will be people who have been furiously saving their money to either step onto the ladder or move up the ladder.
Sorry, can't bring myself to ever call 'investors' a White Knight unless they're buying a newly built property.
You mean Black Sand? They are being charred and it's starting to show
Its merely a flesh wound
When they start promoting a property revivalist meeting held the Top Ponzi promoters at Opes......well: Things are desperate in Tumble Weed town of Spruikersville.
It's not Opes...it 's ASB, Westpac, BNZ, Kiwibank, ANZ + Treasury and Reserve Bank ALL predicting that we've seen the lows in property.
The same ASB, Westpac, BNZ, Kiwibank, ANZ et al. that were predicting negative interest rates?
- https://www.asb.co.nz/blog/2020/12/what-are-negative-interest-rates.html
- https://www.reuters.com/article/newzealand-economy-westpac/westpac-fore…
- https://blog.bnz.co.nz/2020/11/whats-happening-in-markets
- https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/106847/kiwibank
- https://news.anz.com/new-zealand/posts/2020/06/what-negative-interest-r…
- https://kpmg.com/nz/en/home/insights/2020/11/negative-interest-rates.ht….
Yep, the dreams of the vested.
"'Tis but a flesh wound" :)
North shore buyers still paying way above CV for good houses.
Apartments and townhouses owners on the other hand are in a BIG problem
"Apartments and townhouses owners on the other hand are in a BIG problem".
Got evidence to back up that assertion? Last time I looked, the Auckland CBD which is awash with apartments, has been doing very well. And on the North Shore apartments - of which there are few - are doing fine.
Seriously you need evidence ? Is the price of something your only evidence of a good long term return on investment or a "Quality" product ?
"Is the price of something your only evidence of a good long term return on investment or a "Quality" product ?"
Wow! Lay off the personal attacks.
I was responding to Mr Mendel's ongoing derogatory statements about apartments and terraced houses.
And to answer your absurd observation - Yes. The purchase price is most certainly part of my evaluation in what is "a good long term return on investment" and what constitutes a "quality product". Only fools don't do consider either or both. And even bigger fools assume massive untaxed capital gains that may never appear during their lifetimes.
Correct, its a game of cards, you already know if you have a good hand so you just sit on it. Quality builds in great locations are always going to fetch top dollar its that simple. Total number of houses for sale in my area has ticked over the highest I have ever seen in 5 years but then again the population is increasing and more houses are still being built. Hardly a glut for sale and still SOLD signs out, looks pretty normal to me.
Realestate.co.nz had a total of 33,425 properties for sale on its books at the end of March which was the highest it has been in any month of the year since May 2015.
That's why we have published stats, because your normal is not normal.
Spruikers don't do stats well......
It always amazes me when I see comments on this site from people try to convince us that house prices are stable or are going up. Unless you are heavily mortgaged who cares. What about our children and grandchildren? Don’t they deserve a chance to buy at 3 times income like we did. Human greed never fails to amaze me. Actually thinking about the welfare of others is actually good for us.
If you have kids its YOUR job to look after them. Pretty sure there are plenty of parents who could downsize and help their kids out with a home deposit, hell plenty of retirement villages that now take people at 55. I have personally witnessed both ends of the spectrum, parents giving their kids the deposit and those that hang onto everything and let the kids struggle.
What about the kids without parents, plenty of those especially as many die before the age of 65. Even those with parents dead from accidental deaths & childbirth should not be left without any option and permanently destitute with fate written for them. Sadly the reality does not care for a imagined utopia of every child having parents still in the family picture.
Also these days many children face the reverse prospect too. Of children paying to care for other family members affected by early dementia while both parties have no secure housing. A sort fkd both ways to sundown prospect that neither could have predicted or avoided as truly there is no absolute preventative to all unforeseen medical issues, accidents, and employment crisis.
Why should I have to downsize to get my child into a home? My parents didn't need to?
If house prices were a modest 3 x like in the past, then we could do away with this "downsizing" nonsense and kids could buy their first home independently.
Right now a lot of people in Auckland trying to "down size" their 2 mill home and buyers offering 1.7 but they say to RE no its worth more ..... lets see
Ohhh, well that's another way to look at it. Downsizing not to release equity for the kid's deposit, but downsizing in price expectations so that the kid's generation have a chance at buying without borrowing a huge sum of money that only serves to line my pockets.
What's that got to do with the price of fish ? Move on, times have changed, house prices are what they are you cannot go back in time, after all if you could I'm sure plenty of people wouldn't have kids in the first place if they were really honest. If you have a multimillion dollar house you downsize mate and help your kids, its that simple.
Same as when rates go up. We don't need to have alternative funding models just higher rates. People can always downsize.
Swifter - my experience is that pretty much all parents who can afford it are helping their kids. The reality is that many parents, including those fortunate enough to be home owners, don’t have much ability to help their kids with a deposit etc. Many are themselves struggling financially or don’t have much wealth. Most wealth is held by a very small proportion of people.
Also, downsizing isn’t really an option for freeing up capital for most people as their houses are already modest, and likewise with going into a retirement village.
@exagent
You appear to be repeatedly amazed
That's a strange comment John Mendel.
I don't have data to back myself up but logic tells me that it's the lower priced properties such as townhouses/units/apartments that will suffer smaller price declines than houses, simply because a lot more people can afford to buy the former over the latter.
So why are they a BIG problem over houses I am not sure. Because there's a greater supply of them, is that what you mean?
It's because townhouses and apartments are the solution to the housing crisis because the dramatically increase the supply of housing in places people actually want to live - holding rents and house prices down.
If you are a spruiker or have a model that relies on land value capital gains, townhouses and apartments are a threat to that model and so anti-housing affordability spruikers oppose them on principle.
Seeing all these listings piling up, is like watching Russian tanks buildup on the border of Ukraine
It does not mean that there will be an invasion, but it raises the odds.
I think the listings have intent to sell, most likely read is falling prices for the rest of the year.
-10% by xmas.
Prices sure are starting to come down. The 3 bedroom house next to us sold for $880k in 2021, just recently sold for $610k to first home buyers. They said investor activity is dead, which has made it so much easier to buy (even with interest rates where they are). Landlords took a big hit on it. I suspect that's just the beginning.
Ouch! Suburb?
You must have more comprehensive data that REINZ's HPI. Thanks for the free head up!
I bought into a new subdivision of 6 sections on the outskirts of Auckland mid last year....all sold out.
Another subdivision of 9 over the road .....all sold except 1.
Another subdivison of 4 nearby.....all sold out.
What property crash?
You need to seriously up the voltage on your failing attempts with your resuscitation unit there Winger.
You might get an electrical jump on the dead Property Ponzi.....but the market perception and market CONFIDENCE is Dead as a doorknob!!
You are left with your soggy stinking bag, how long can your hold the bag? and will you trick a bigger fool??
Doubt it.
I'm gonna make a killing.
It's chaos where I've bought. Road works, road widening, huge building projects, new intersections, local shopping centre construction, traffic jams, thousands of road cones, new subdivisions, school extensions, 1,800 houses planned etc. etc.
I've owned lots of properties, but this one is probably gonna be the icing on the cake.
Classic. Look up the definition of Narcissism, its is, after all, just about you...
It's all about me? Possibly...but you know what they say???.....poverty sucks. A bunch of hopeful Harry's and socialists here predicting property Armageddon, and it just hasn't happened.
We heard you the 1st 12 times you mentioned it. Please doorknock for your sales pitch elsewhere, and consider a contingency plan for if your investment doesn't pay off.
I'll keep ya posted. I haven't failed yet and I'm not young.
Hope your not over leveraged sounds like you have millions invested in property if one investment falls it could bring down your little empire, you sound quite desperate to push markets up.
I don't have any debt. Haven't had debt for over a decade, property bets paid it off.
You were lucky to be born at a time that allowed you to buy your first home at least ten years ago. I was even luckier as I bought my first one 40 years ago. Today you have been talking about making a killing over the section purchase. When you make a killing it means someone is getting snotted when they buy it off you. Don’t you think that kind of language sounds a bit greedy. The people buying today for the first time have it much harder than you or I had it when entering the market. Using the words” making a killing” does you no credit or favours.
It certainly hasn't been easy for me. I've taken some huge risks that I won't expound on here, but needless to say it involved very large sums of money.
I'm certainly not apologising for saying "making a killing". One I made a lot out of was a mortgagee sale. It was absolutely disgusting, some people live like pigs...and even worse. Full of fleas, wrecked cars, holes cut in the floor so the kids could get in after school, the toilet so disgusting it had to be binned, to describe just a tiny bit of it. The neighbours told me they were very glad to see me buy it.
Have a go, do it yourself, there's always mortgagee sales in the Saturday paper where I live.
You obviously have no empathy for those less fortunate than you. I would be embarrassed to use the words making a killing. It smells heavily of greed and arrogance.
You have to remember a lot of people you describe as, 'less fortunate' than me have no work ethic, no ambition, some live like animals, they're spendthrifts and breed like flies.
I didn't. I didn't get married until I was 40, by then I was financially secure and on my way. I can't really generate a whole heap of sympathy for those that have a stack of kids, on the 'bene', use drugs and whine about their misfortune.
You certainly know how to make a hole deeper wingman. I was luckily to have had good parents who set a good example and who encouraged us all to go to university. Not everyone has had a good start like me. In turn I encouraged my children to get tertiary educated and they did. Don’t you think some of the people you described in your earlier comment did not get a good start in life. Not everyone can overcome a bad start.
I didn't come from money myself.
Yes, some people don't get a good start, but it sickens me to read that children are out wrecking dairies and assaulting the owners. I was in Kawerau a while back. I pulled in at 8 in the morning to get some breakfast, and there were several obese slobs standing around drinking from one litre fizzy drink bottles.
Where I live there's signs outside several businesses looking for employees, one has had signs outside for months looking for untrained, but well-presented and keen staff. But lots of kiwis prefer the 'bene'. It's a lifestyle choice in NZ. Comrade Ardern's govt. decided you didn't need to even give a reason for wanting to be on it.
Horticulturists in Hawkes Bay can't get fruit pickers.
There's jobs for anyone who really wants one.
Ah the self made man narrative, yep it was all you mate, no luck involved. Well done. Looking forward to the updates on your flood plain buy.
His comments certainly are a pretty good indication of how old he is.
It ain't flood plain. It's elevated. Great north-facing views. Can't wait to get there. And there's going to be great capital gains.
Dupes are obsessed with flooding and global warming, but so far this year, where I live, there hasn't been much rain at all, and the water tankers are out.
And there's no rain in sight.
"No luck involved".......you make your own luck.
Yesterday I read a story about a single mum who has been given 8 weeks to live, did she make her own luck? Did her kids?
Also good to know you base your climate change understanding on the weather you personally experienced. It takes some sort of arrogance to believe you're smatter than the best scientific minds in the whole world.
I had a flatmate at Uni that reminds me of you, he bought himself a foreign bride later in life, weirdly none of his peers wanted anything to do with him, he was quite good looking and good at his subject matter so it must have been his personality that put them off.
Some guys I worked with have been killed on the job. Did they make their own luck?
There is going to be great capital gains. I will make a killing. There seems to be a theme here. I would be embarrassed to use such wording in times when so many struggle to fund basics such as food and housing m.
I think you're probably working for the Salvation Army or the Housing Corp.
Retired actually. Using the words ‘housing corp’ really shows your age.
For some reason you're obsessed with my age..what's that got to do with the argument? Oh, that's right, just a vindictive, condescending comment. The kind people use when they're on the losing side.
Perhaps because you continously confirm the stereotype of an angry old boomer. The ones who think every person younger than them is a criminal who hasn't worked as hard/smart as you to get them gains.
Aka an old selfish, greedy narcissist.
Angry? I've got no reason to be angry, life's a dream. Success involves risk, sometimes lots of it, and that's not for everyone. House prices have spiked globally in the last 20 years, it's nothing new if you followed the news.
I'm such a good guy I've even posted here where I think the next property boom's going to take place. I'm throwing a lot of money at it...but no one here seems very interested, which is hardly surprising. In fact some here have even gone out of their way to invent fictitious stories about the area...very odd indeed.
Most here seem to more interested in socialism.
Hope he pays his taxes on said gains, given he's investing for them. Don't need yet another property tax evader.
That's every property owner in NZ isn't it? I mean, who would buy a property if they thought the price would decline?
who would buy a property if they thought the price would decline?
How about someone who wants to raise a family in the security of an actual home as opposed to some dodgy rental?
Your question illustrates perfectly what is wrong with NZ's property market.
Looking at property ads, I wonder when did homes become 'great opportunities'?
Well at the moment, there's lots of people just like that that are going to lose their houses with interest rates spiking. When interest rates are up, it's generally a good time to buy as house prices decline.
The property market is governed by market forces, not what's good for "someone who wants to raise a family".
Several decades ago mortgage rates got to 23%..how do you think that went?
Well at the moment, there's lots of people just like that that are going to lose their houses with interest rates spiking.
Maybe if NZ didn't have such an investor feeding frenzy in 2020-2021, a lot less 'people just like that' would have been losing their homes. You left out the bit about the property market being governed by laws made by politicians with vested interests. Also no mention in your post about the untaxed capital gains for investors. 'Governed by market forces'... hahah!
Anyway, we're looking at buying although I'm fairly sure prices have not reached the ground floor yet. For precisely the reasons I mentioned and for the sake of my kids.
"Untaxed capital gains?"
In 1986 the IRD in its righteous might decided to tax people who were speculating on the NZ stock exchange, because there was a lot of money being made. They forgot that what goes up sometimes goes down, and after the horrific 1987 crash the IRD found itself coughing up billions in losses.
If you're aware of how these 'market forces' work, then you're in the driving seat, you'll make a fortune...right?
Please list some other countries for us that do not have a capital gains tax for investors.
Spoiler alert, it's much easier to find counties that DO have such a capital gains tax. (For investors only, by the way. NZders are always commenting and grumbling on about how they don't want CGT as they shouldn't have to pay tax on the gains of their PRIMARY home - not the brightest bunch, gah!)
Yet, somehow, NZ is unable to implement capital gains? And you're saying it's because of the 1987 stock exchange crash? Sigh.
What goes up sometimes goes down, and then the govt. coughs up....right? And that's exactly what would happen if many here got their way. If there was a property crash, the govt would have to compensate for losses.
I thought when I signed up to this website, posters would be discussing how to make money, but I think I've inadvertently stumbled on to "The NZ Socialist Worker'.
If there was a property crash, the govt would have to compensate for losses.
How on earth do you figure this?! I'm very interested to hear the details.
Because if you're taxed on the profits, losses must be tax deductible....right? Posters here want property gains taxed.
That's how it works.
losses must be tax deductible
LOL!!! Absolutely hilarious.
Are you able to list any other country that has a CGT where losses are also tax deductible? Just for interest's sake.
Seems I've inadvertently stumbled into "The NZ Socialist Worker" here: Privatise gains, socialise losses! Nice.
P.S. I'm still laughing.
Will real businesses also be able to deduct losses? Or only landlord 'businesses'?
I've been a landlord for decades old chap. Losses are deductible.
You think a CGT is a one-way-street? It isn't. Which shower did you come down in?
LOL, have you ever been a landlord outside of Nu Zulind? Have you ever paid CGT?
Clearly not! And you clearly have no idea how it works.
old chap
P.S. Lol. Assumptions..
Have you been a business owner for decades too? Or only a landlord-type of 'business owner'?
Expenses and losses are not the same thing!
""No luck involved" ......you make your own luck"
1) Did you have control over whether you were born?
2) Did you have control over where you were born?
Most people don't realise:
1) the odds of a person being born is almost zero (1 in 400 quadrillion - https://www.sciencealert.com/what-is-the-likelihood-that-you-exist
2) the odds of being born in New Zealand is extremely low - 0.064%
Assuming Wingman was born in 1960
i) number of births in NZ in 1960: 65,476
ii) number of births in the world in 1960: 102,262,439 - https://database.earth/population/births/1960
In 1960, there is a higher probability of being born in China or India
i) China: 19.06% - 19,490,632
ii) India: 18.54% - 18,957,618
Growing up in the 1960's in China or India would have resulted in a very different life trajectory than being born in NZ
The odds of being born into a developed economy such as US, Canada, Western Europe, Aust, NZ was less than 10%.
Would you be willing to enter the ovarian lottery again?
That's a very eccentric post. There's wealthy and poor people in all those countries. I've got a lot of sympathy for people down on their luck, but in NZ, dole bludging's a national sport.
Well said and examined CN!
Yes we are very fortunate to be NZ born!
A streak of great fortune, that most of us should appreciate......
@wingman
Me, me, me me
That's how capitalism works ......isn't it?
I tell you what doesn't work....socialism.
Sorry. Not interested. I develop where people want to live. I.e. where there is far more demand, and from a far wider cross section of buyers.
The one when you realise most of those buyers either cant settle or they are devs mates helping out with the lending conditions not actually buying. Look out for some coming back to market.
I recall 6-7 years ago, there was only around 60-70 houses for sale in the whole of Dunedin, and open houses had 50+ cars parked outside. Today there are just over 600 on the market. Just saying..
All over NZ price detached from investment yields about 2012-5, then no one cared due to capital gains, now its important and prices are moving back to a linkage with yield..... its like a glacier melting, its a slow process but cannot be easily stopped, now rates are normalising.....
Like at the end of the Younger Dryas period, stay out of the way of the melt water.....
Interesting. I remember 10+ years ago it was popular for investors from elsewhere to buy in Dunedin (relatively cheap, large renting population of students). I assume that's been the case for a long time. I wonder if the dramatic increase you describe is indicative of property investors getting out (as opposed to homeowners under pressure).
They said that about Tokoroa
Never heard of it. Is it in NZ?
Dont forget the thriving metropolis of Flaxmere
Quite a few years back I had a look at a few very grand old villas in Dunedin. A builder friend and I flew down to look over two. Once we'd done the maths, the answer was no. To bring them up to spec would be a massive undertaking and truly a labor of love. Shame tho. Transport them to Auckland in a similar location and they'd be worth a fortune. Dunedin's time will come tho. And these villas will become Dunedin's crown jewels. Locals with the skills and nous (and patience) could do very well from them. They are unique.
Old villas can be colossally expensive to renovate. Rotten foundations, sloping floors, borer, scrim...lots of unfortunate buyers have been stung with them. When I was about 17, I worked for a guy doing renovations on them around Ponsonby, Herne Bay and 'Parnhell'.
Horrible...
Money aside however, you can't deny that old dress-circle villas aren't intricate and glorious in their detail.
Definitely, I live in one, but it was constructed new about 3 years ago, and I'm building another one shortly. It looks old, but has all the modern accoutrements.
It's great to live in and attracts a lot of attention from passers-by.
In 2017 and 2021 when we bought in Masterton I recall TradeMe listings sat around the 80 - 100 mark. 1 or 2 properties would be added each day but were mainly junk.
Today it's at 332, has been around this level for the past few weeks. Properties drop off, but then 5 - 10 are added each weekday and many are quite desirable.
"Mortgagee" and "Present All offers" trending up on TM. More to come...
920@3:06pm "all offers".
Report from RE Agent: Listings are at a 9 year high in their area, demand is not.... going to be a tough year
This from thepost.co.nz 20.02.2024 (various excerpts)
"Total stock on the market – 36,802 houses – was 8% lower than the same time last year. In the big picture, Wellington house prices have dropped the most out of New Zealand’s main centres – declining 20.1% since the peak of January 2022. CoreLogic’s analysis for February found that 56% of the value of existing mortgages in New Zealand are currently fixed but will reprice over the next 12 months. With many pundits predicting a drop in interest rates soon, he believed that things were turning around. He believed it was an optimum time to buy, with Wellington house prices likely to rise as much as 8% over the course of the year and debt likely to become easier to service if interest rates dropped." ...... Clearly 3000 houses have gone somewhere since this article....if the latest 33000 march report is correct... I think it is fair to say many in the industry will have hopes pinned on the OCR falling... which will depend heavily on what the FED does... If the FED holds HFL it will be a winter of discontent.. Banks will be looking at capturing as much of that 56% reprice before any rate changes I suspect.... lol
https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350184729/house-sales-sluggish-start-…
he believed that things were turning around. He believed it was an optimum time to buy, with Wellington house prices likely to rise as much as 8% over the course of the year
I can appreciate why he'd say that, but 'believe' it? Not being honest this one.
I'm so bored with this debate, but yes property market is indeed broken in NZ, but not for the reasons you may guess.
I'm loathed to admit this, being an immigrant myself, but the common issue Australian, New Zealand, Canada and the UK have is, governments try to boost the GDP with positive immigration. The net effect of this is: lower wages, lower standard of living and stresses on housing & infrastructure. Its not good policy for obvious reasons and it sends our kids off shore.
Interesting debate on youtube search "DEBATE: Is Immigration Good For Britain?"
I like to view a country as a birthday party, immigration - like guests to the party, create more noise / activity but at the end of the day everyone gets a smaller slice of the cake.
What I find really interesting about this phase in the market is what is covered in the article below. In the Matakana region most homes over $7m have sold but there is a massive glut of properties around the $4m mark. Many going to auction and being unsuccessful.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/waterfront-estate-sells-for-8-05m-in-less-than-a-week-45231
Same in Auckland I think the 2.5-3.5mil market has fewer buyers, once you get above that its still all go
around 2 getting offer 1.8
Lifestyle block about 6 ha cheviot with large crap house ,sold for 350 g in 2010, sold by mortgagee auction recently for about the same price.
DO you have address? I can google, land is not land ie horses need flat
I suspect it's this place? Micthwic can confirm.
Says 7.1 hectares, sold in 2010 for "N/A" and then sold in November last year for $365k.
It get's worse ... Homes says it sold in 2008 for $441k.
https://homes.co.nz/address/cheviot/cheviot/158-munro-road/1vywQ
Current market is delusional.
Don't know how many times I've heard that....."I'm right, and the market's wrong"!!!
Yes that and I'm waiting for house prices to come down to 3x income, that appears to be the favourite on here.
With the OCR staying 'Higher for Longer'. Downsizing and or cashing up and leaving NZ is probably a better choice for many.
High mortgages are here for a long while. Add Austerity and the Recession, High Real unemployment 11.2%, High inflation, CPI and with a government pumping out 100 Day Plans one after the other.
Lil ole NZ is again that cork bobbing about in the Pacific looking for a destination.
New Developments in a housing market near you:
Buyers bypassing houses sold by boomers - they were the lucky generation who had inflation to minimise debt and inflate house values over a number of decades so are well established and don't have to sell
Banks removing default from their vocab and replacing with topup or capitalising
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