The National Bank's agricultural quarterly review looks at the world's economic and market reforms in relation to NZ agriculture and asks "are we there yet"?
Based on these prices we have still a way to go (other than dairy) to return agriculture to a good level of profitability.
In reviewing the sheep sector they can see lttle upside than that achieved in prices for lamb and wool this year, predicting no change for 2010/11.
However, they are a bit more positive in bull beef with average mid season price predicted to rise to $3.15/kg.
In dairy predictions, they follow Fonterra's lead, and suggest that supply issues of the past year will disapate with a Northern Hemisphere and Oceania production increase. That coupled with some consumer resistance to this years price levels will see the heat come off the market, in line with payout forecasts.
Well worth a read as farmers develop a feel for budget forecasts for the coming season.
BEEF
The forecast 2010/11 price for mid-season bull is $3.15/kg carcase weight, up $0.15/kg on the estimated equivalent 2009/10 figure of $3.00. The benchmark US manufacturing beef price is currently higher than expected but forecast to settle around a range of US$1.50 to 1.60/lb.LAMB
The estimated mid-season price for a prime lamb 17.5kg in 2009/10 is $80/head. No change is forecast for 2010/11.
WOOL
Wool continues to struggle in spite of its inherent excellent qualities. Encouraging improvements in the auction price of strong wool in parts of the season tend to be followed by another slump. No change is forecast in prices for the 2010/11 season.DAIRY
The international dairy markets have staged a very strong recovery although not evenly across all products.
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