More wild spring weather associated with the equinox has brought more rain to dry areas and wind and snow to many others.
Pasture growth rates are steady and paddocks are being shut for silage in areas from Waikato north, as second round rotations start and managers are focusing on utilizing growing pastures and maintaining quality without the use of supplements.
Advisers are emphasizing the importance of heat detection so early identification of non cycling cows is achieved and remedies put in place, as days in milk is a major influence on total production.
The ramifications of last weeks big fall in dairy commodity prices via the auction are starting to ram home with two banks realigning their forecasts down with the market, to $4.80-$4.85/kg ms.
The high volume of product and low number of bidders created the 7% drop and Westland Milk Products suppliers were doubly disappointed on hearing their $7.27 payout for the 2013/14 year was well behind Fonterra’s.
This has created some nervousness within the sector especially as more talk of a slower recovery amid big global supplies has caused analysts to predict a delayed upturn well into next year.
Oceania prices confirmed the market dip shown by the auction prices as even the falling currency failed to fully buffer the dairy decline with new yearly lows reached for both butter and whole milk powder.
Positives are being seen with the currency easing buffering some of this decline but whole milk powder prices needs to lift by a $1000 a tonne to maintain a forecast in the $5 region but world milk consumption is still predicted to steadily rise to adsorb increased milk flows.
The theileria disease cases continue to increase mostly in dairy cows, but it’s economic impact is being negated by early detection by well prepared managers.
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12 Comments
Estat - Newcronos
> reported EU-28 January to July milk deliveries are 5.8% higher than the same
> period in 2013. Various member states showed the following January to July
> increases, compared to last year; Germany, 4.4%; France, 7.4%; UK, 10.2%;
> Belgium, 7.9%; Italy, 3.2%; and Ireland, 7.1%. January-July milk delivery
> data showed increases for all countries in Western Europe
> July period showed the following increases; butter, 1.1%; SMP, 47.1%; and
> WMP, 38.5%. European milk deliveries for January-July, reported by Estat -
> Newcronos, showed the following year over year changes for selected
> countries; Poland,+7.5%; Lithuania, +8.5%; Latvia, +12.4%; Estonia, +8.9%;
> and the Czech Republic, -0.5%. http://www.hoards.com/T14mar10-Europe-no-quotas
another view of what no.1 best buyer doing...
Calendar 2014 began as 2013 ended, with China dominating global markets with record purchases at near-record prices. Q1 2014 exports to China soared 43% above the same period in 2013. However, as the Chinese milk production season approached its peak and the flood of early-year export shipments arrived in Chinese ports, China’s traders largely withdrew from international markets. The growth rate subsequently halved for the months of April and May, with volumes only 21% above prior-year levels. Industry sources suggest that after an even slower June and July, activity has increased in recent weeks. However, a return to the pace of early 2014 appears unlikely until late in Q4 at the earliest, when purchases for 2015 limited low tariff quota volumes under the NZ-China FTA begin. http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Markets-and-statistics/Market-situation-and-outlook/Situation-and-Outlook-October-2014-Overview.aspx a look at what is happening brands-wise. e.g. Butter is still benefitting from a fat-friendly attitude shift, recording volume and value growth of 5.1% and 4.5%, despite softer average prices (down from $8.51 in FY12/13 to $8.45 in FY13/14). plus a set of milk production costs ex Oz.more for data freaks ex the MMO.
farmgate prices, supply, exports and imports (by processed type).
- provides context to local data/eco. service providers work.
refer
page 32, page 36 - smp, page 38 - wmp, page 57 - EU plans,
page 60 - World Market Since April, the market was impacted by the uncertainty about the Chinese imports. However, the EU statistics still show a strong demand from China. This may be related to new Chinese regulations, requiring foreign companies to get consent for importation. The Russian embargo came on top of that. Price levels in the international market are now back to the level of the summer of 2012. Volatility is clearly on the agenda because of deregulation (CAP) and greater market transparency. As we may expect, grassland conditions in the main exporting nations (EU, US, NZ) are good for milk production going forward into 2015. page 101 in conclusion.....- Global demand is good
- Current imbalance is supply driven
- Direction of the market uncertain
- Supply reaction to lower prices is needed
And so to round out & cf, not much background to the China stocks story or lunch-takers.
but which view, Cal yr, rolling yr on yr, or season, should it have actuals or movements, and as numbers or %....
Perhpas the problem of "supply reaction to lower prices" is to get better sales people and marketing systems?
Pretty hard to reduce costs futher at raw materials stage when constant pressure to replace 30+yr old equipment.
Perhaps they could start with reducing production overheads.... like dropping a fancy published report with over professionally typeset 100 pages.... (and sky tv shows)
- -
The Payment Summary turned up today.
"...collect and process a total of 1.58 billion kgMS - a new record for our Co-operative."
considering the current predictions (and recent drops at gDT) they don't even have the sense to be embarrassed
cowboy page 8 is for you (int'l trade).
http://www.tetrapak.com/DocumentBank/Dairy-Index-Presentation-2014.pdf
and page 17, like GS pointing to SS=/>DD in 2020
and detail here (though no mention of the corporate tricks/slices here).
http://www.tetrapak.com/DocumentBank/TetraPak_DairyIndex_report_2014.pdf
not sure what to make of this deskfasting...
Been doing the deskfasting my whole working life. Although I used to get told off for it in the Power Board.
It is less efficient work-model, but does allow more time to be utilised. Worst issue is that it does lead to casualness and time-loss (through poor discipline habits)
And given the claims previous ($7 here to stay), and the 8.40 (8.70 in my case) dropping to 5.30 or less (with the "white gold experts" now calling "end-of-dairy", and "cut all costs"
then they have ZERO credibility, and certainly anything which has data projections over two years into the future is to be regarded as scam material (it's that inaccurate and unreliable - I'll buy snake oil first, as I'll have more accuracy)
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