The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5% from 2.0% and says it's "resolute" in its commitment to get inflation down and back into its targeted 1% to 3% range.
The 50 point rise was widely expected and follows 'double jump' increases in the OCR in both April and May. The OCR has been pushed up some 225 points now since the start of this hiking 'cycle' in October 2021. Prior to that the OCR had been on the emergency setting of 0.25% since March 2020 and the start of the pandemic.
Economists had been expecting that the RBNZ would produce another 'hawkish' statement that keeps the pressure on regarding the RBNZ's efforts to dampen down inflation expectations.
Key parts of Wednesday's statement from the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee were largely unchanged from its previous OCR decision in May - which of course also saw a 50 point OCR rise.
Crucially, the statement said "it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment".
Use of the term "at pace" as well as later "briskly" will be of interest in the marketplace, since this will reaffirm the view that the RBNZ will likely again increase the OCR by 50 points at the next review as well, in August.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley and economist Nathaniel Keall said the key question from here remains when the RBNZ will be able to have confidence it is getting closer to meeting its targets.
"While we expect annual CPI inflation peaked in Q2 [the June quarter] just north of 7%, it is still far from clear when it will settle back into the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. Our research shows there is some risk that inflation is set to become more persistent in the NZ economy, particularly if the labour market remains tight. For now, we see the OCR heading to a peak of 3.5% in late 2022, with cuts to follow in 2024. That said, there may be some difficult trade-offs next year as growth slows but inflation potentially proving persistent," they said.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner and senior strategist David Croy said Wednesday’s decision to raise the OCR by 50bps to 2.5% was straightforward, in that it was consistent with the RBNZ’s previous published forecast, analyst forecasts, and market pricing. "The path of least resistance was a motorway," they said.
"However, decisions are likely to get harder over the second half of the year as evidence mounts that tightening financial conditions are indeed dampening demand – and eventually inflation pressures – in the economy. The debate around 'how much is too much?' will naturally get much louder. But that remains an issue for another day, with it remaining unclear whether inflation has even peaked, let alone how quickly it will come down,” Zollner and Croy said.
The latest announcement from the RBNZ did not include a full Monetary Policy Statement. The last one of those was issued in May, while the next one will be in August. Therefore the central bank has not updated the economic forecasts it made in its May announcement, which included forward projections suggesting the OCR would be hiked to about 4% by the middle of next year.
However, in the summary of Wednesday's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, it is stated that the committee "remains broadly comfortable with the projected path of the OCR outlined in the recent May Monetary Policy Statement".
The committee noted that while there are near-term upside risks to consumer price inflation, there are also medium-term downside risks to economic activity.
"Despite these risks, members agreed that capacity pressures remain pervasive. Labour shortages continue to be a major constraint for business activity, as are the ongoing impacts of global supply chain disruptions. A resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a rise in other seasonal illnesses continues to constrain productive capacity in New Zealand. The recent removal of travel restrictions have also enabled a net outflow of labour in the near-term. Members agreed that employment is above its maximum sustainable level, and that rising wage pressure remains an expected outcome. Meanwhile, core inflation measures are around 4%," the statement from the committee said.
This is the statement from the Reserve Bank:
The Monetary Policy Committee today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.50 percent. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment. The Committee is resolute in its commitment to ensure consumer price inflation returns to within the 1 to 3 percent target range.
The level of global economic activity, combined with the ongoing supply disruptions largely driven by both COVID-19 persistence and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, continue to generate global inflation pressures. Food and energy prices are especially affected by geopolitical tension. However, the pace of global economic growth is slowing. The broad-based tightening in global monetary and financial conditions is acting to reduce spending growth. Asset prices have also declined due to higher interest rates and a weaker earnings outlook.
In New Zealand, domestic spending remains supported by high employment levels, resilient household balance sheets in aggregate, continued fiscal support, and a strong terms of trade. The reduction in COVID-19 health-related restrictions is also enabling increased demand. Labour and resource scarcity are also contributing to upward price pressures which are currently exacerbated by seasonal illness, a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, and a net outflow of labour abroad.
In these circumstances, spending and investment demand continues to outstrip supply capacity, with a broad range of indicators highlighting pervasive inflation pressures. Employment remains above its maximum sustainable level and the Reserve Bank’s core inflation measures are around 4 percent. The Committee acknowledged there is a near-term upside risk to consumer price inflation and emerging medium-term downside risks to economic activity.
The Committee agreed to continue to lift the OCR to a level where it is confident consumer price inflation will settle within the target range. The Committee is comfortable that the projected path of the OCR outlined in the recent May Monetary Policy Statement remains broadly consistent with achieving its primary inflation and employment objectives - without causing unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate. Once aggregate supply and demand are more in balance, the OCR can then return to a lower, more neutral, level.
Summary of Monetary Policy Committee meeting:
The Monetary Policy Committee discussed developments affecting the outlook for inflation and employment in New Zealand. Members agreed that developments were broadly in line with their assessment at the May Monetary Policy Statement. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment.
The Committee judged that the global economic outlook has continued to weaken, broadly as anticipated. The weaker outlook reflects a tightening of financial conditions, ongoing global supply disruptions, and rising geopolitical tensions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to cause disruption to the supply of oil, gas and food commodities, resulting in continued high prices for food and energy. Ongoing health restrictions are exacerbating supply disruptions, as currently most notable in China.
Globally, many central banks have increased policy rates in response to rising inflationary pressures, to realign economic demand with supply. Members agreed that global inflationary pressures will likely persist in the near-term, as reflected in ongoing high domestic import prices and elevated shipping costs.
Members noted that the New Zealand dollar exchange rate has depreciated since the May Monetary Policy Statement. A moderation in global commodity prices, amid a continued decline in investor risk appetite, and rising central bank policy rates globally have contributed to this depreciation. The Committee noted that the weaker New Zealand dollar is continuing to have an impact on New Zealand dollar import prices.
In New Zealand, GDP contracted modestly in the March 2022 quarter. However, these data remain volatile, with a catch-up in government spending and exports expected. Increased visitors to New Zealand are also supporting hospitality and tourism. Meanwhile, household spending has remained resilient despite a decline in consumer confidence.
Financial conditions have continued to tighten with mortgage rates rising in response to, and in anticipation of, increases to the Official Cash Rate (OCR). Asset prices, including house prices, continue to decline. Members agreed that the increase in mortgage interest rates will assist to bring house prices more in line with sustainable levels. The Committee also agreed that both high food and energy costs and rising mortgage interest rates will lead to more subdued household discretionary spending in coming quarters.
Members noted that while there are near-term upside risks to consumer price inflation, there are also medium-term downside risks to economic activity. Despite these risks, members agreed that capacity pressures remain pervasive. Labour shortages continue to be a major constraint for business activity, as are the ongoing impacts of global supply chain disruptions. A resurgence in COVID-19 cases and a rise in other seasonal illnesses continues to constrain productive capacity in New Zealand. The recent removal of travel restrictions have also enabled a net outflow of labour in the near-term. Members agreed that employment is above its maximum sustainable level, and that rising wage pressure remains an expected outcome. Meanwhile, core inflation measures are around 4 percent.
The Committee discussed the unique shocks the economy is currently facing relative to historical experience. These developments increase the uncertainty about how households and firms will respond to a tightening of monetary policy. The Committee agreed that observing how households and firms are responding to these economic challenges will be important to understanding when monetary policy settings will be sufficient to achieve its remit objectives.
The Committee agreed to maintain its approach of briskly lifting the OCR until it is confident that monetary conditions are sufficient to constrain inflation expectations and bring consumer price inflation to within the target range. The Committee remains broadly comfortable with the projected path of the OCR outlined in the recent May Monetary Policy Statement. Once aggregate supply and demand are more in balance, the OCR can then return to a lower, more neutral, level. The Committee viewed this strategy as consistent with achieving their primary inflation and employment objectives without causing unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate.
On Wednesday 13 July, the Committee reached a consensus to increase the OCR to 2.50 percent.
166 Comments
I recall some prophet a while back preaching from the rooftops about 7% interest rates this year.
I think he died, but his prophecy lived on. Many thought he was crazy, and some then got jealous as he got closer and closer to fulfilling his true calling.
We are only half way through the year and when I look at this link I smile and wonder who was that man people call the prophet ?
https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
Finance Minister Robertson in a recent interview exclaimed that most people thought inflation would peak at just over 7%. Quite obvious to my mind, that he knew full well inflation was not going to stop there as this OCR increase today & comment foretells. But now of course Finance Minister Robertson can say most people said that not him. Couldn’t risk oneself being too definitive, could we now.
"he knew full well inflation was not going to stop there" - how do you know that? Even if it does peak at 7%, the RBNZ has to get it back to 2%. This OCR rise does not imply that the inflation rate is still going up.
I am with Robertson, I think we hit the peak about a month ago (note that hitting the peak does not mean prices are going to start coming down). But I doubt anyone can say that with any kind of assurity.
"Mortgage rates have peaked"
Is that a tui ad? It's often vested interests saying they have peaked (brokers, REA)... swaps indicate fixed rates should be higher but competitive pressure is keeping a temporary lid on them... but presumably the banks will want to pay for all the cash incentives they're splashing around by returning to normal margins. Not to mention RBNZ increasing capital requirements, which has to add inflationary pressure on rates.
Prosperity has peaked. Economic collapse ahead.
The Central Bank is resolute in keeping the economy down, until total collapse. The plan is that we will own nothing.
First, they ensnared borrowers will ultra-low rates at 0.25%, for a long time. Now, they are punishing those who actually borrowed at this level.
The goal of central banks around the world is to re-create a 1929 to 1931-style depression, apparently.
Todays stark choices facing the shortsighted investor of yesteryear;
Sell now, pay Brightline or cut losses (whichever applicable)
OR
Sit tight, pay increasing amounts in interest (dead money) on a leveraged asset that's rapidly declining in value. The ground is now shifting beneath you.
Don't worry, he didn't die. He was banned for continuously repeating obvious facts, contributing nothing of any value, and generally being a pest.
I'm not sure what he's doing with all the spare time he must have now, but rumour has it he spends all day cackling to himself while scrawling the number "7" on the walls of his parent's basement over and over again using his own feces.
Note that the rent stayed the same though. Most property investors have sorted out a bit of equity in their portfolio, so they will be able to hang on for a while yet. Only highly leveraged investors and FHBs are at risk, and their properties will be pounced on. Horrible for them,but only for them. The Aussie banks who foreclose on them won't care, and the new owners will also be happy.
Have agreed with some of your recent posts, but have to disagree with this one. We are already well on the path to this outcome. Inflation as the primary driver is showing absolutely no sign of easing in NZ. Or the rest of the world especially in the US and Europe. The Govt and the RBNZ have warned the against being over leveraged, and continue to do so.
Forget the prophet stuff, but this is looking like happening more and more by the day.
Yeah, one of my friends in 2019 firmly believed that interest rate would go negative when OCR dropped to 1%. I told him that if that happens, we will have high inflation, our economy would be in trouble. But he didn't believe me back then. Back then I considered dropping OCR from 1.50 to 1 as a bad decision from RBNZ, now I can confirm it truly was, even stupid.
Heading in that direction.
Funny how usual suspects are clamoring about 10s auction today, the high yield being above WI and 2ary market. While true, it also *equaled the high yield* from the 52w bill auction closed hours before. Link
Not much different in NZ. One year T Bills tendered at 3.53% yesterday. NZ government 10yr yield ~3.64%.
Many have lost their wealth by reading the Herald - Should have listened to Fitzgerald.
Others lost their shirts to the R.E property Scammers - Because they ignored Brock Landers.
The arrogant are now becoming the biggest Loser - They had copious warnings from Independent Observer.
Some were smug as they made plans to fly away on the next jet, interest rates went up and it all turned to Fret - Say hello to DDDDebt.
But most of All - they can now reminisce with incredible information from ikimPaul.
My guess is that they'll need to move a whole lot further to tame the inflation beast given 1) the strength of inflation pressures both locally and globally 2) the fact that the NZ dollar is falling not rising (which is usually more typical when they tighten) and 3) the ridiculous situation where they continue to offfset the tightening by persisting with their idiotic funding for lending scheme.
On expected line but RBNZ should have given one shocker of 0.75% earlier or today (Thoughknows that will not do) as economy need one elctric shock , just like they gave by dropping in April 2020.
Overall should maintain the target of OCR going up between 3.4% - 3.9% but one shock will do much to achieve what multiple double jump have not been able to .....
Should landlords who are reliant on those peoples (FHB's) rents be more worried whether or not that these people are going to have jobs or not if the scenario you mention above plays out as you suggest?
Or does it only become an issue if they decide to buy rather than rent?
Is it better for the investor to lose the house before it becomes an owner occupied home, or after the FHB takes ownership from them?
Everyone always thinks the average wage couple will be buying houses if the prices fall 50% but no one thinks about whether the average wage couple will still have jobs after the total collapse in discretionary spend ripples through the economy.
Oh. I do have a soul brother or sister. Thanks for pointing that out.
Prices were pumped up by low and emergency rates most people understood house prices were way overvalued for a number years, now the scam is in the light all the rats are jumping ship. People have been through downturns before the ones in trouble are the over leveraged and people who got greedy. Don’t worry about jobs unless you work in real estate houses are for living in not speculating.
"Don’t worry about jobs unless you work in real estate houses are for living in not speculating."
...or work in anything that uses housing as a security for asset financing. Or work in a related industry. Or work in a related industry relating to those other related industries. There's a reason I use the words 'ripple effect'.
And no one has been through a downturn with this much debt loaded against the system, nor being tethered to it over the sort of timeframes that we've now normalised like we have with 30 year mortgages. We are in unchartered territory and anyone who thinks otherwise is flogging themselves.
ok...
I mean, I get the point. You got to refix and it will be bad.
And it will be bad for several others.
What is your option?
Stop raising rates? NZD down Wages up Inflation up Assets so so
Set rates back to zero? NZD very down Wages very up Inflation very up Assets maybe up.
Bail out? (I would say NOT with my money please, as I didn't subscribe this madness)
Something else?
What you prefer?
The good news is that the Aussie banks who mortgage sell houses for less than they are mortgaged for will take a hit. And that foreign money that they transferred to NZ then stays in NZ. Assuming the new owner isn't stupid enough to use a foreign owned bank for financing.
The housing market is main game in New Zealand, the air is gushing out from that bubble this had to happen as most of the population could not afford to buy the house they live in. The whole country will be better off once this beast is dead it’s ridiculous to think 12 x average wage couples income to buy a box in run down area in Auckland is Sustainable. Hopefully the government can create a law so this speculation cannot happen again.
"We are in unchartered territory and anyone who thinks otherwise is flogging themselves." not disputing your perspective GV but wondered about the '87 crash and how that impacted? i knew quite a number who speculated in the stock market and houses and all got hurt . Some significantly, but i can't remember how far houses came back?
At the time i was in my first home and paying every last cent on too much mortgage and didn't pay much attention to house values.
"Members agreed that the increase in mortgage interest rates will assist to bring house prices more in line with sustainable levels".
I would love to know what in their world constitutes 'sustainable'? It certainly can't mean affordable as that would require a return to levels not seen for decades. If we take the Demographia level of affordability as being a Median Multiple of 3, prices would have to fall by over 50% and the Bank would not/could not let that happen. Even if we take a significantly higher multiple of say 6, that would need a very substantial further price correction and I just don't see that being allowed to happen.
So, I ask again, what is sustainable?
i can imagine the meeting... the chair asks the usual question.. 'and who agrees that house prices are nearing sustainability...'. and the economists all smirk and nod eagerly.
Imagine how uncomfortable they would be if they had to say something meaningful or about house prices or worse still something measurable.
To me sustainable is a term they are using so that people that aren't really paying attention think that they are meaning affordable. Sustainable has no meaning as it's not clear who benefits from sustainable prices if they are still very unaffordable. It's a made up term to hide the ridiculous situation our country is in. And if it's only a 15% fall that they are aiming for then they are saying they are aiming for houses to remain unaffordable.
Banks like RBNZ see themselves as signal men believing they pull the levers and the train goes in their desired direction not realising the levers are no longer connected to the points and the train will crash into the buffers to their surprise - message the market-(people) will determine the direction.
OK, the notes accompanying the OCR decision are pretty hawkish, and we have another 50 bps increase.
They are both steps in the right direction, however this is still not fast nor aggressive enough: the RBNZ should have raised by 75 pbs instead - their timidity will simply force them to raise rates to an OCR peak higher than would otherwise have been necessary.
+1.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in the last RBNZ meeting. Do they think NZ needed this 0.5%, or are they just trying to avoid another media and political beat up and look like they are doing something.
The RBNZ need to forget about what has happened (including the CPI figures that are way in the past) and determine if prices will continue to rise at such a pace. Will food prices be another 7% higher next year even with the supermarket review? Will petrol prices be another 7% higher next year considering oil seems to be on its way down not up?
Central banks (globally) are in a real muddle. Its possible that with the rising USD that we see sovereign debt crisis around the globe in the next 12-24 months.
A new agreement might be required to devalue the USD such as a modern day Plaza Accord - especially if the US has to keep raising rates to get inflation under control there (and other weaker currencies can't do the same).
Brent Johnson (dollar milkshake theory) was on the George Gammon podcast covering this today. Worth a listen if you have a spare 25 min.
The rap sheet is quite impressive;
The RBNZ cut OCR to 0% in 2020, told banks to prepare systems for negative rates (RBA ruled them out) and bought $30b of bonds. They then preceeded to sit pat through 2021 when our over-stimulated closed bordered (labour shortage) economy was flashing red for inflation. Fast forward to 2022, we have just had 3 consecutive 50bp tightenings with more to come and $5b of unrealised losses on the LSAP - all to fight a supply-side inflation pulse.
In what world does the Governor not get hauled across the coal's and held to account? In a world where he has absolute power over financial journalists and bank economists.
This will be a Case Study on this one day in how not to implement monetary policy.
While I have defended Orr a few times, I will also say I have never been a fan of the QE / “money printing” stuff. Also ultra low interest rates (and especially talks of negative) just seem bonkers to me.
Wheeler seemed a lot more sensible really, Orr has been a bit of a crazy, although different circumstances of course.
And none of us would know what would have happened had he not did what he did. Often those people know of very real issues that we don’t.
My thoughts exactly. How Adrian Orr has managed to avoid any serious criticism or scrutiny is baffling to me.
I’m loathed to criticise the initial response to covid, due to the lack of precedent (except removing LVR’s - that looked stupid the second it was proposed). But it wasn’t long before it was apparent the economy had returned to normal and the monetary response was no longer necessary.
But Adrian seemed to think it was more important to keep the banks cheap funding rolling (because he promised the facility would be available for a set period of time). How that took precedence over meeting the RBNZs core mandate of price stability shows where his priorities lie.
It was the pleading for banks back in 2020 to lend that angers me.....in order to avoid a depression - he even said that....we can have rising debt levels/house prices or a depression - which do we want?
But it just goes to show that central banks have backed themselves into a very horrible place through years of non-prudent market regulation and monetary policy.
Dropping interest rates in response to imported deflation, pumping asset bubbles is all they've done the last 20 years....and now the reverse appears to be playing out....what a surprise...
Is it a bit like being handed the captaincy of the Titanic after you've hit the iceberg though? I mean in 2019 we were already in trouble....recession was inbound (see 2/10 inversion) with record amounts of debt. Orr could have done nothing along with the Fed etc and we'd be in a depression now.....as opposed to a depression next year (lol).
"2s/10's was never inverted in 2019 IO, keep it factual"
Aug 2019 it inverted...see all the news articles (I started selling risky assets Q3/4 because of the 2/10 inversion...)
10Y2YS: -0.07 +0.01 (-14.12%) (cnbc.com)
The inverted yield curve explained and what it means for your money
PUBLISHED WED, AUG 14 20197:36 AM EDTUPDATED WED, AUG 14 201912:27 PM EDT
The inverted yield curve explained and what it means for your money (cnbc.com)
or
What the 2/10 UST yield curve inversion means - Aug 2019
What the 2/10 yield curve inversion means | Bond Buyer
or
And its inverted again now by the way...
I was picking 0.25 for August but now Im thinking another 0.50 after todays comments. And the June inflation figure out next week, probably starting with a 7. My milk powder went up this week from $9.49 to $11.49, 20% increase. Inflation is still trucking along.....They are still spending like drunken sailors in the US I see today, looks like another 0.75 rise coming up there. 5% 1 yr TDs by Xmas?
I think the blame goes far beyond individual consumption and borrowing decisions. Those governing the country have responded to all structural issues with demand stimuli in the past decade or do.
Instead of doing their jobs properly and reforming our broken markets and systems, all we got was high migration, rate cuts, LSAP, welfare increases, etc.
Agree. And some of us here were trying to warn prospective FHBs away from it last year, while the likes of P8 continued their garbage about it never being a bad time to buy blah blah blah.
But you have to have a bit of sympathy, right, given the so hugely dominant narrative in this country about house prices never falling significantly???
HoiseMouse unfortunately plenty of people had been warning FHBs for over a decade and been wrong, you can hardly blame them for eventually giving in.
I definitely learned very early after the GFC to never give well meaning financial advice to young people as if you are wrong you can seriously ruin their lives.
I'm not unsympathetic to that, but you have to couch that in the context of governments getting elected specifically to fix housing and then senior leaders like the PM and Finance Minister saying that people would want to see their houses stay at the levels they were at, or just go up in value slower. Every single institutional mechanism in this country has been tilted towards keeping prices going up, or at least not letting them come down. I feel like holding it over individuals at this point is kind of a jerk move, considering how many mountains were being moved to keep things moving in one direction.
At some point, after every one else is abrogating the responsibility for their jobs and democratic mandate, throwing it on the people who just bought a roof to keep over their family's head lest they fall any further behind relative to earnings isn't something I can accept as fair.
Yup. Did the present government cynically lie to their potential voters re their housing promises, or are they so spectacularly incompetent that the present situation is a result of their ineptitude? Either way it is not good for them. What if they promise the same coming up to the next election? Who the heck can their spectacularly let down target market vote for? Can't wait to see what unfolds.
Yield Curve Inversions are happening all over the place now. US 1Year all the way through to the 10 year are all inverted.
NZ Government 6Month has inverted through to the 5 Year.
My guess is within a year its all going to custard and rates will start to fall quite quickly
I think the Watershed moment will be if house prices fall 15-20% as then there is an incentive for people who have paid the 10% deposits on new builds to walk away. This will cause building developers to fail and send a shock though the construction industry. Panic kicks in and you find your self in a reccession environment.
Who else was here at interest.co.nz for the "Deep Freeze List" ????
https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list
We should start a veterans association :-).
"The Committee is resolute in its commitment to ensure consumer price inflation returns to within the 1 to 3 percent target range."
This is an interesting quote. Looks like Orr isn't going to be the one to change the rules. That privilege will fall back on Robbo and Ardern.....
I don’t understand this argument. Interest rates are set for the purpose of moderating current and future monetary and economic conditions.
What happened in the past is irrelevant. The economic conditions which prompted those earlier rate decisions no longer exist.
That's way too simplistic and, frankly, wrong. I'm surprised how many upvotes the comment has received (actually I'm not that surprised - there's an army of commenters on this website who are wishing the OCR up)
'Neutral' is defined by current economic conditions, not historic averages.
I'm still only picking maybe in the 5's myself. The RBNZ will have no choice but to protect the housing market. It will try and hault rate rises and put up with high inflation just watch. The problem will be the FED if it keeps rising and also doesn't stop if this happens we get to eat a shit sandwich. I'm not sure people would tolerate double digit inflation.
Accidental Landlords growing in numbers as the market continues its decline - - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129234603/desirable-tenants-become-sca…
There are going to be many accidents out there.
Karma.
A year or so ago hard working, young FHBs were frustrated at being priced out the house market by boomers who were investing for huge capital gains, tax advantages and low ongoing interest costs.
Today - the same FHB's are able to buy a home at increasingly discounted prices or the have their choice of lots of increasingly cheaper rentals without any of the caveats whilst waiting for purchase prices to drop further. And boomers are stuck with higher interest costs, increasing investment losses and have worse tenants and worse contracts.
If only we had a crystal ball for next year
Fun fact... If the price of *everything* in the CPI basket remained exactly the same in June 2022 as it was in March 2022, the CPI release next week would still be 5.5% (Q2 in 2021 provides a low baseline).
Obviously, nothing Adrian Orr is doing will make any real difference; prices will come down when the global factors driving those prices change. But at least some suits are getting paid well for their reckons.
Inflation looks pretty sticky to me, despite consumer sentiment spending remains strong and house prices have only edges down marginally. In fact the thing that's preventing me from making large purchases is that there is such a backlog of orders on anything I want to buy. Want a shiny new car? 10 months. Want a fancy fridge? 7 months. Want to book a holiday? Good luck!
There isn't anything left to buy. Outside FMCGs money is worthless.
I think with this economic predicament we are in currently interest rate rises aren't going to have to much effect on inflation. Most of it is completely out of the hands of rbnz. Oil prices fertilizer prices all imported goods Carbon taxes slowly but surely been implemented on all goods it's all beyond rbnz control. Only deflation will be the housing market and some highly leveraged businesses that can't afford the interest bill.
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