Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news there is still no sign yet that the Chinese economy is back driving international trade.
There was another dairy auction this morning and it was a dull affair. Volumes sold were lowish, and the key WMP price was little-changed. Overall prices slipped -0.9% in USD terms and -1.3% in NZD terms. Butter rose +2.2%, but cheese fell -3.4% and SMP fell -1.6%. Perhaps the only implication that can be drawn from this late-season event is that there seems resurgence Chinese demand based on their foodservice sector is still quite absent.
American retail sales disappointed for April. A good rebound from the weak March -0.7% slip was expected, and while they did advance, it was by only half the anticipated level. Still the annualised rate of increase from March to April was solid and better than it has been. But for year on year, there has been virtually no increase, so this sector is failing to keep pace with inflation over the longer run at an increasingly worrying rate. And this weakness is confirmed by the weekly same-story monitoring. Last week was only +1.6% ahead of the same week a year ago, again nowhere near enough to account for inflation.
If there is a bright spot, it is car sales, and these are expected to stay healthy for a while yet.
And that will help American industrial production which did turn in a better than expected April result. It rose +0.5% in April from March, but that is inflation adjusted. This clawed back some earlier weakness in 2023. But it was the production of business equipment that kept this elevated in April.
Even better is the turn up in confidence by American home builders. They haven't been this bullish in almost a year.
Of course the debt-default theater is still playing out in Washington with talking points hardening on both sides. The business community is imploring Congress to act soon.
Canadian inflation stayed up at 4.4% in April which was a bit of a surprise because a shift lower to 4.1% was expected. And the annualised pace between March and April rose to +7% pa. Few saw that coming.
China said its retail sales rose in April by a strong amount, up +18% above year ago levels. But remember retail sales were down more than -11% in April 2022. That is only a +5.3% gain above April 2021. In that same period, consumer price inflation rose +1.6%, so there are real gains here. This 2023 year-on-year gain underpins the good service sector expansion there.
China also reported that industrial production rose by +5.6% year-on-year in April, but this was below market forecasts of an +11% rise, so it comes with a tinge of disappointment. But it is faster than the 3.9% rise in March and it was the fastest growth in industrial production since last September. Looking behind this production, we see that electricity production was up +6.1%. Their domestic coal production was up only +4.1% but imported coal was 140 mln tonnes in April, a year-on-year increase of +89%.
And while the rumours of new stimulus have come and gone quickly this week, local analysts expect the Chinese central bank to reduce interest rates again and loosen monetary policy following the April decline in lending to households. "Something has to be done."
German economic sentiment got weaker in May. Getting the blame were the twin impacts of rising ECB interest rates and fears about what a US debt default would do to the global economy. But to be fair, the sentiment level is still much better than what it was at any time in 2022.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Australia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook. Currently Moody's have Australia rated Aaa, and S&P have them rated AAA too. Australia is only one of nine countries to be rated AAA by all three major credit rating agencies.
Consumer sentiment slumped in May in Australia, according to the Westpac-MI survey. It dropped by almost -8% from the prior month when only a -1.7% fall was expected. But recall it did jump more than +9% in April. Since April they have had another rate increase when none was expected, and they had a Budget that is being seen as more restrained than expected. This sentiment result highlights continuing pessimism among households, and especially low income renter households, at levels that first arrived in November and hasn't really shown any sustained improvement from then. This overall pessimism is reflected in new home sales remaining at rock bottom levels.
And staying in Australia, investment banks are getting ready to pitch be the one to sell the 18% shareholding in Auckland Airport held by Auckland Council.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.55%, and up another +5 bps from this time yesterday. Their key 2-10 yield curve is little-changed at -52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is a bit more inverted at -138 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve is much less inverted at -199 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.48% and up +2 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.73%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.18% up +7 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has opened its Tuesday session with a modest -0.3% slip on the S&P500. Overnight European markets were little-changed, down about -0.2% on average. Yesterday Tokyo closed up +0.7%. But Hong Kong was down -0.6% and Shanghai was down -0.7%, both after rumours of new stimulus faded. The ASX200 closed its Tuesday session down -0.5% and the NZX50 was little-changed again.
The price of gold will start today at US$1989/oz and down -US$29 in a day.
And oil prices are a bit softer from yesterday to be just und US$71/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now under US$75/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday and now just over 62.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 57.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.5 and up a mere +10 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price is marginally lower today, now at US$27,055 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just over +/- 1.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
150 Comments
As expressed in the graph above provided by the Ministry of Justice, cultural reports are increasingly rising in demand and use throughout the legal sphere. They provide us with an account for one’s personal circumstances, emphasising the need for the Courts to stray from such rigid applications of the law; urging to consider potential reasons as to why a defendant may be appearing in Court for their offences. These reasons may be part of the contextual narrative yet still vital in framing a wider picture that needs to consider factors such as recidivism, socio-economic status, familial pressures, or obligations, and overall, the social positionality of the defendant in question. Again, as previously stated; everybody has a range of choices, however these choices are conditional to one’s circumstances. The substance within a cultural report recognises that there are vulnerable bodies within society and there is nuance to be found within specific communities, especially where there are high rates of incarceration, recidivism, and poverty. Merely painting the defendants actions as a conscious choice and nothing more is a surface level approach to a deeper narrative that deserves to be heard in Court.
No such thing as free will?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230509-how-genetics-determine-our-life-choices
Which graph are you referring to BTW?
It's only a matter of time before some criminal gets killed trying a ram raid by the shop owner, shop owners have already been killed. Escalation should surprise no one as the police are not protecting the rights of the store owners..... Crims should not have the right to attack and destroy these shops and the store owners livelihood. Labour Soft on Crime
Agreed, unfortunately it's something that probably needs to happen. Real world consequences for their actions. If the justice system is inadequate, people will take actions into their own hands.
Then the country will weep and mourn over the vibrant life full of opportunity cut so tragically short.
Everyone loves to say “get tough on crime”, but no one wants to look at the underlying driver - the fact is we have abandoned the social contract that if you get a job, work hard for 40 hours a week, you can live a decent life and get ahead.
This idea that if you “punish” people more it will solve the issue, ignores the fact that for many people in low socioeconomic environments everyday is a punishment, so they don’t have anything to lose.
We have families working full time living in cars, due to the cost of housing. Why would young people (who watch their parents work their arses off only to be exploited by shitty landlords and terrible employers) buy into this system?
Previous generations who worked necessary jobs (labourers, janitors etc) were able to provide for their families and even build some wealth, and eventually own their own home. We now reserve that right for the top strata of society.
If someone has nothing to lose and no future prospects to jeopardise, good luck creating “consequences” for their actions.
There will always be some people who, regardless of environment or upbringing, will try to cheat, lie and steal. But right now as we tear up the social contract we we are pushing more and more people into this behaviour, as they have little left to lose
Excellent comment. If only the bulk of the voting public understood this. Our absurd housing market has resulted in so much social dysfunction and I fear its only going to get worse. Gated communities ala South Africa here we come.
Anyone who's raised children know that they need boundaries & consequences, otherwise they'll always make endless academic excuses.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/teenager-shot-during-road-rage-incident-a…
A whole load of reckons in your comment. I reckon the majority of these ram raiders come from intergenerational dole bludging families who live in state houses capped at 1/3rd of their income, living life with both hands out and believing the world owes them everything.
I highly doubt these scrotes come from hard working families doing it tough. Maybe if they start seeing more of their bros locked up or worse, then the novelty might start wearing off.
No it comes from my lived experience. Working at jobs and attending schools with people from a mix of socioeconomic backgrounds.
I no longer work in such a mixed environment but have family that work in low decile schools who see the results of how our society sets low income families up for failure. Families with both parents working full time, who can’t afford suitable housing or child care which results in their kids falling behind
You seem to have built up a caricature of what life is like for “low income” families and have used it as a broad brush
Well said Miguel
Lots of very good people working the night shift at f&p healthcare,sistema etc.
Raising a family when you don’t get home till midnight can’t be ideal for child or parent.
damn hard when one income pays the rent. and the other half to pay for everything else for a family
we all see these articles where we hear about percentages ….30,40,50% of disposable income etc but until you actually have lived it then it really means nothing
when luxon went and worked at McDonald’s for a shift and a photo, I do wonder what a month living on a McDonald’s wage could do for his spirit
My friend worked at McD for 3 years and managed to pay is way through Uni. He picked up many useful skills including customer management, time management and organisational. His future employers will note that he turned up on time and completed regular shifts for 3 years. He also gained budgeting skills and was able to save some of his wages for small luxuries.
While not a long term career option, living on a McD's wage for 3 years worked wonders for his spirit.
If you're going to drop out of school, have a family of 6 kids while working a cleaning job at night then you reap what you sow. Doesn't earn you or your kids the right to rob a liquor store.
No-one is saying it gives them the right to rob a liquor store.
.
I certainly don't believe hard working low income families are the major source of these ram raiding scrotes and it could be offensive to suggest they are. Not a single broad brush, but I think "low income" families fall into 2 camps:
- Hard working employed, but struggling, will generally raise their kids to the best of their abilities and get it right most of the time.
- Lazy entitled sitting on the dole all day, blowing money on smokes and booze. Verbally abusive to their kids, letting them run amuck.
If I were to take a punt, the kids in the former group that do get in to trouble are influenced by the kids in the latter group.
Clueless.
"I believe" sums up your attitude. Believe first and then fit the narrative to your beliefs.
This sounds really out of touch. "If they see their mates get locked up, maybe they will think twice!" - works for a small percentage of people. In gangs, getting locked up is almost a badge of honour.
We have been personally affected and seen it. We stayed in a motel in South Auckland once. Our mid 90s car was getting eyed up by some teens. Sure enough, these teens were staying at the motel, which was emergency housing as well as mixed with normal motel users. I had a chat to the teens, they had clear behavioural issues and not a lot of hope, the living situation was shit, they had been shuttled around a couple of motels in the past years, had no base. Mother and father were working as cleaners, the teens were skipping school "cos it was pointless, they don't teach us how to live on the streets". That night the teens stole our car, raced it along the motorway, crashed it and wrote it off. One of them was taken to hospital with a fractured pelvis. Police pressed charges, and after a quick trail we went up for a restorative justice session. Teens didn't really care still and thought they were tough cos now they were going to jail. One said something like "yeah but at least I get enough to eat" or something similar. The parents were mortified. It was patently obvious that the teens, without a home, without a community, constantly changing living circumstances etc and parents that could afford the basics and who were also struggling, were a result of the housing issue we have in this country. A slow moving disaster.
It's pretty out of touch to think the housing market/industry/situation of the last decade or more isn't causing a whole lot of the social ills we now see.
You didn't check that the motel was not being used for emergency housing before you booked?
Nope, just used booking.com
You can generally message the Motel through the app and ask questions. I know it seems sort of wrong but one can avoid a lot of trouble.
"Maybe if they start seeing more of their bros locked up or worse, then the novelty might start wearing off" reminded me of a comment I've read recently by someone who works with at risk youth "you can't be what you can't see". Perhaps as a community we can play a role by getting involved with organisations like Big Brothers Big Sisters youth mentoring to act as role models/mentors for those who haven't had good examples set for them, who knows it could change the course of their lives.
Fix the money Fix the world. Bitcoin Fixes this!
It is all because we are on a fiat standard where money can be created for zero cost and handed out to those closest to the printer. This is literally theft from everyone who uses that currency as a saving mechanism.
Bitcoin has a hard capped supply, but is infinitely divisible, so each unit can have an increasing value in real purchasing power.
Your proportion of the network can not be diluted, so no one can steal your wealth.
Yes it is still an emerging monetary phenomenon so it will take time to build its network effect, and that is why early adopters (we are still extremely early) who take the risk will be rewarded with increasing purchasing power.
"so no one can steal your wealth"
https://web3isgoinggreat.com/
This is why you Bitcoin, not shitcoin. There is a significant difference.
And like any technology in its infancy, yes it is not particularly user friendly currently, then again neither was the internet or email back in the 1980s.
You are personably responsible for your coins. If you look after them correctly then it is impossible for anyone to steal them.
Blockchain tech has been around for 30 years, bitcoin for 14ish. But we're still early you say.
edit: you've failed to mention "decentralised" but the other cult slogans have been covered off, well done.
Damn I didnt get 100% in the cult test, I am a failure!
Saw someone acting suspicious near our house other day, shortly after young chap (immigrant as he had an accent) came along, asking if id seen said suspect. He then told me this person had ripped his mates off and they and the family were out looking for this suspect to beat the c##p out of him. He was genuinely worried, very nice kid and was desperate to find and 'save' this crook. Where we come from he said we deal with these crooks...' i'm worried for him..he will get smashed'.
We have huge festering social/race problems.
Clan behaviour is a problem. Something most Western countries have generally eliminated through the nuclear family. While often race or tribe based it can also be locality. In the countryside of China and India and other countries you will sometimes find the police will side with the locals even when the locals are criminals.
?
The biggest criminals on the planet are the ones sc--wing the resource chance of every future human.
That cohort can easily be describes as 'most Western Countries'.
Although nowadays I'd have said 'All transnational corporates'.
Public perception of that change is slow in certain quarters
I disagree, Western Civilization is the GOAT.
The biggest criminals on the planet are the ones sc--wing the resource chance of every future human.
Getting carried away now - how can limited resources be available to "every future human"?
That's my point.
I believe the self defence laws are favourable to the armed criminal and you need to be half dead before being able to defend yourself. I doubt whether National or ACT would change it.
Completely wrong. Seems to be lots of that on this thread.
NZ has the second highest incarceration rate per capita in the world after 'Merica.
Doesn't work there. And doesn't work here.
Drop the non-sensical and meaningless sloganeering like - xxxx is soft on crime - and start publicizing one of the many systems that does actually work!
Once again, the Scandinavian countries have systems that work far better. They can afford them because they tax the wealthy their fair share.
What's your source? According to the link below we have the 106th highest per capita incarceration rate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate
A dangerous path to go down. If some things are genetic then that can be used to justify all sorts of negative outcomes I.e. apartheid, nazis. Surely there are ethics departments preventing this type of research.
The cultural report has nothing to do with genetics. It's quite the opposite, it focussed on the outside factors. The nurture side of things vs the nature.
It is a fascinating subject. One of my entry essays to Magdalen went along the lines of "If our actions are shaped by our genes and our environment can we ever be held personally accountable for our actions?"
I have always thought that punishment is an environmental factor. A lesson for others rather than just the perpetrator.
Exactly Zac.
It is the understanding tha a very negative consequence that will follow a choice that stops the action.
Someone once told me that a criminal will weigh up the cost of being caught (e.g. for a major robbery 3 years in jail) against the potential reward ( e.g. a haul of $200k). Accounting for the risk of being caught and sentenced.
So our average criminal these days will probably simply carry out minor crime after minor crime. The only way to stop it is to follow up every single crime and ensure the consequence is enough to prevent the next potential criminal carrying out that activity.
Whilst putting someone in jail might not make them a better person (may make them worse).. it will stop the next 3 people from carrying out the same crime regardless their genes and background. Thus better for society and cheaper in the medium to long run.... if we are willing to pay a high policing and justice cost up front.
And why I favour the death penalty, for proven horrific crimes.
A guy got several year's tax-payer funded holiday the other day, for the 4-hour torture and rape of a woman in front of her children. Perpetrator was older than 30 - what a wastrel.
As a society, we need to say enough is enough from time to time - I'm all for restorative justice (I did my major final year project on the rehabilitation of sex offenders into the community, which at the time NZ was world-leading in), but that doesn't absolve people of their crimes. Restorative justice is too often used as a cop-out - a drugged driver hit a family member head-on, and asked for restorative justice to reduce their sentence. Which was a joke, as this person was from a different part of the country, with no prior relationship with my family member. I see this too often in the courts, and consider cultural reports in the same vein.
The real issue is we're trying to keep as many people out of prison as possible, as we haven't increased capacity while we've almost doubled the size of our population. The Dunedin longitudinal study has shown that there is always going to be a certain percentage of the population with anti-social tendencies. It's just yet another infrastructure failing by our overlords.
We now have 30% less criminals in jail that at our peak (2018), yet our crime rate has tripled.
Agreed.
Perfect example is the Christchurch shooter. We 100% know he is guilty. Dont do a trial, just take him out the back and give him a lead tablet.
Great deterrent and saves all the rest of us a lot of money.
Could even charge a small fee to let the family members pull the trigger if they want to.... (could be pushing it haha)
Yes I was referring to the bbc link, I realise that a cultural report is different. I think it is a no go area though because it’s the type of research that can be used to justify anything.
Genetics <> Culture ... Or Genetics != Culture
English a second language for you? If so, you're forgiven. If not, use a dictionary more often.
It makes sense in a way. It's far cheaper and more productive in the long run to try and work with those in the system who had a crap start than to throw away the key.
At the same time, these has to be consequences, even if they're a different kind of program. A colleagues husband had reconstructive dental surgery after a random encounter with some people who - guess what - came from a background of deprivation and hardship. They got off.
Agree to a point. Struggle to find an excuse for violence though. The damage to the victim is clearly in this case been disregarded.
I struggle to work out how people on a benefit survive or low incomes and this is something that needs to be addressed, however it’s no excuse for violence.
Agree to a point. Struggle to find an excuse for financial crime though. [And what you said.]
Biggest financial crime in this country? A taxation system that continues to ensure the rich get richer while the poor go nowhere while the middle inches closer to poor day by day.
Taxation is just extortion with the threat of violence from the largest cartel in the country, the government.
And inflation through money printing and the devaluing of all currency in the economy, is just another form of taxation. Steals from currency holders and makes asset values go up in nominal terms.
Hence why in the fiat system you need to buy and hold hard, scarce assets to maintain your purchasing power.
And Bitcoin is the only absolutely scarce asset to exist.
Is bitcoin going to fix the potholed roads and shorten waiting times in ED?
Bitcoin will fix the underlying institutions and processes that has lead to these situations.
Many years down the track yet.
If things go south then lead will be the only scarce asset to exist, Bitcoin will be useless.
Not sure of the context of this comment with respect to the article? But largely agree. What none of the areas of justice highlight though is the way that very poor government policies for decades have failed the people of this country causing desperation, frustration, anger and hopelessness. There is a growing portion of the population who see themselves as having nothing to lose (not really true and reminds me of a statement from a woman talking about drug addiction who indicated that when she thought she was at 'rock bottom' she found out that 'rock bottom' had a basement!) and are essentially on the verge to fight back, but their anger is seldom if ever felt by those who truly caused their plight. Many of them are out of reach, but this doesn't absolve the Government of the responsibility to try to fix it. Grant Duncan's article on the lack of vision in this country's political parties is very pertinent and applicable here.
No policies will make any meaningful difference until the parents step up to their responsibilities. Starting with their choice to be parents - or not.
Is this copy-pasted from somewhere? It reads like a ChatGPT explainer on cultural reports.
There clearly needs to be some kind of accounting for if a person has had a terrible upbringing and bad life (through no fault of their own, just a roll of a dice that was cast before they were born) as that undoubtedly affects the likelihood of going on to commit crimes, or even see criminal behaviour as normal.
At the same time, the cultural report system seems to have become a bit of a grift (some people must be making BANK out of these) and just the mere presence of a report seems to guarantee you'll get a hearty discount off what was probably already a weak sentence. Furthermore, they seem entirely geared towards absolving the offender of any responsibility, as if there isn't ultimately some conscious decision made to liberate a Toyota Aqua and drive it through the doors of the local vape emporium, or to club some old granny over the head for her purse. Life At The Bottom by Theodore Dalrymple is a good read on that topic (the absolution of the offender from responsibility because of their circumstances)
Cultural reports also seem to fail to account for the fact that as tragic as it is that a whole subset of the population grows up in relative deprivation and bad conditions and therefore some of them are more likely to go on and commit crimes, at some point the average Joe on the street deserves protection from that criminal element ... when you see people coming up for sentencing with 10, 20, 30 convictions it's time to admit that they are probably "beyond redemption" at this point and the public deserves protection from them, even if that comes at a financial cost to the taxpayer.
It's highly unusual for IT GUY, not even a mention of a housing crash...
No point stating the obvious Nifty, crime can be fixed by policy, and policy is already fixing high house prices.
it's an explanation of their growth from the period 2019 to 2020 at end 2020 they where running at 200 per month, prepared and paid for by you and me... taxpayers. Thats 200 people getting a discount of 10-25%. In the crime in West Auckland yesterday 4 where arrested and referred to youth services. lets have a poll on this, lets run that poll on the 14th Oct 2023
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/03/violent_crime_up_33_under_labour.html
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/03/the_most_serious_assaults_are_up_the_most.html
Thefts up 41% under Labour | Kiwiblog
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/03/ram_raid_statistics.html
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/04/the_facts_on_violent_crime.html
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/04/the_immunisation_data.html
And 9 years of underfunding of the Police by national 2008-2017 has nothing to do with it?
Thanks for your thoughtful contribution Chippie.
No problem David
+1 uptick from me ;)
IT Guy, shouldn't you publish your first comment as a quote?
Sorry was on a Iphone and had trouble selecting text, now on a laptop so I change. Cannot believe how many in your face crimes taking place, Local bottle shop been hit twice, there are no consequences any more.
Friends who own a jewellery store in the city centre have been done twice in 4 months. And they aren't Michael Hill who have been done a dozen times and more across the country.
They are terrified to go to work, but have no choice. It's their sole source of income. And even their customers are wary of being in the shop for any time longer than necessary now, just in case they get caught up in the next one.
I wonder which party will be the first to resurrect the traditional call to "Bring back The Cane and the Noose!" (A bit like Singapore still is today?)
Yeah plenty will shout that but it has no effect on crime rates. If I'd did the US would be crime free.
At $150k a year to house a prisoner shop owners and consumers may just have to suck it up.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/exclusive-expensive-failure-new-zealands-….
Alternative is a cheap "Escape from New York" type arrangement. I have been to Great Barrier Island (it sucked) and I think it would make a great penal colony. Drop burley around it daily and have a couple of gun boats and you could house prisoners for $1,000 a year (Lord of the flies on steroids).
if it costs 150k a year to lock up, how much does a police officer cost, perhaps we double the police numbers and see what happens, arm the police, and get them on the beat at night.....
I have been to Great Barrier Island (it sucked)..sorry with a comment like that you suck bro
Agreed - it's one of the great visits.
Says a lot about the commentator
A tent prison at Waiouru. The kitchen being 10k from the tents. You wanna eat, you must be at kitchen by 8.0am. Lunch is back at the tents, dinner back at the kitchen. 3 months of winter and you'll never want to go back. On time for two months and you get early release.
Fixed it.
They closed Rangipo down, Turangi prison still operationg.....
I'm sure there's a middle ground that can be found. Four walls with barbed wire at the top and tents with a few burn barrels dotted around the place. Why do we need state of the art facilities that are warm and dry?
Lets be honest. Labour's crime policy has basically turned the perpetrator into the victim. The real victim gets spat on.
You want a justice system that is hard but fair. We don't have that anymore.
As the saying goes. “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”
Guess we are due for some hard times.
Labour ahead in the latest poll. I think I already mentioned that my family has decided to move overseas if they win, especially if Te Paati Maori are the tie-breaker.
I want to watch this from far away.
We are the same, seen this happen offshore....
Yep, I am in the definitely will move back overseas camp if there is no change of government. Spent 17 years overseas and loved it. Moved back to NZ in 2015. Was good for a while but the last 5 or so years have been crap and the future looks, sadly, just as bad if not worse. If we move back overseas, I don't think we'd ever return to live in NZ again. That would be a shame but at the same time it would be the best decision for my family.
I don't believe it's just Labour's policy that has done this - the attitude of "the perpetrator is the victim" has been simmering away in justice systems, particularly many Western ones, for years.
I mentioned it in an earlier comment, but I'll repeat the recommendation - go and read Life At The Bottom by Theodore Dalrymple (the nom de plume of a former senior British prison system psychologist).
I don't agree with everything he writes, but when you stand back and see that there has evolved an entire industry of lawyers, social workers, politicians, academics etc who benefit financially and/or reputationally from absolving the perpetrator and making the actual victim nothing more than an object in the process, as well as a shift towards a rights-based society as opposed to an obligations-to-others based society, the current goings-on become more apparent.
I'll put this on my reading list. Seams like my sort of book. It is a shame the way the justice system has gone. I mean I understand the need for rehabilitation however this should be balanced against the need for justice. This balance has been well and truly lost in NZ.
It's a compelling albeit depressing read (as are most of his books actually).
He manages to articulate so clearly how the professional "excuse making industry" has basically done the disadvantaged an enormous disservice by removing their agency and culpability - thus making it all but impossible for them to reform, as how can you change your ways if you are told you have no control over your behaviour? - and refusing to acknowledge and promote that there are objectively better and worse ways of living (in terms of respecting those around you and the law, valuing educational achievement, prioritising strong family units etc)
And reflects in the delays getting through the justice system - solicitor in Wellington told me 2 years now the norm in criminal court from time of charge until sentencing
and getting worse by the month
Total bollocks! Most of the worlds population live in abject poverty and their socio-economic status is sub-zero. And yet anarchy and violence crime is only found in pockets and not widespread. Being poor and from a dysfunctional family is no excuse for committing violent crime. Never!
Somebody should have told JFK
So you work in a lowing paying job where you are treated like sh*t.
Does that.
a. Make it OK to go home and thump the wife ? or
b. Still make it something you just must not do.
Can this claim be confirmed?
China, New Zealand ready to promote military relations: defense spokesperson
Consultants? Tell us more.
that'l cause a back lash that won't be pretty if it is!
I don't see why not. Keep playing both sides and keep warm relations between both, as much as possible. Then we won't be a tool to be thrown at, won't be part of a future proxy war.
Quotes from the latest forestry reports to underline the China markets weakness:
"Underlying the apparent weakness in April sales prices is the lack of consumption in the construction sector in China. Current usage levels are at about 56,000 cubic metres per day, compared to normal trading year exceeding 85,000 for this time of year."
China is indeed a dead cat bouncing regarding our major exports! Our trading deficit will balloon even further!
The price of gold will start today at US$1989/oz and down -US$29 in a day.
Higher real interest rates act as a brake on rising deficit spending costs - hence the gold hedge against bad outcomes is unwound.
I have been on a recruitment drive for my employer this month and was looking at some statistics around workforce training in Australia and NZ.
Turns out Austria produced more graduates in engineering, manufacturing and construction than Australia did in 2019 (including international students), despite the former having just over a-third of the latter's population.
Wages in Australia for skilled and experienced workers in these domains are shockingly inflated due to these long-term trends, aggravated by the oversized mining sector soaking up so much of the limited available talent for top dollar.
Exactly, we are failing miserably to train the people we need for the future. I am becoming quite the fan of industrial policy. If everyone is going to go down that route, we can't just bumble on relying on visitors to Hobbiton and Chinese students failing to get into UK, Canadian, or Australian universities.
The penny is dropping everywhere.
Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, who until February ran the $9 billion property company Mirvac, said tax breaks for investors drove up housing prices. The former property boss handpicked to advise the government on the housing crisis says she favours curbs on negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions. (AFR)
The desire to capitalise falling discounted present values of cash flows associated with residential property assets diminishes as interest rates rise.
Congrats friends on the record speed at which the comments thread descended into eugenics today!
Crime is an inevitable outcome of inequality. If people have nothing to lose, little to eat, and they get the wealth of others rubbed in their faces everyday, you create a tinderbox. Add some trauma from tough living and you have ignition.
The answer is mainly about addressing inequality. Give everyone that wants a job a job. Create a safety net. Create and appropriate more resources (nurses, doctors, dentists, houses) set aside for the public good. Tax the rich not because you need their money, but because when wealth accumulates in the top few per cent, they have too much power, consume too much resource, and become toxic to the country's wellbeing.
The social safety net should not be used as a hammock.
Why not, our economy is managed explicitly to keep around 300,000 people desperate for work (or more work)? Should they be made to lie on a bed of nails?
Ah yes, that must be why no one who earns over the median income ever commits a crime. If only we'd figured this obvious truth out earlier!
I am sure you are smart enough to realise that this is not binary - that once you earn more than X, you are crime free for ever.
The actual evidence is very clear, the degree of inequality in a city / country is the primary driver of levels of acquisitive and violent crime. People who are struggling to get by are the main perpetrators (and victims) of these crimes. That is not to say that wealthier people don't commit crime of course, but their crimes attract less attention (tax evasion, illicit drug use, domestic violence) and they tend to get away with it more often.
I think:
Make jobs mean something again. So long as the system is financialized, we disincentivise working, then productivity takes another hit. When the home you live in goes up in value more than you've earned in the year, where is the incentive to be productive?
Above average people on above average incomes should be able to house themselves.
Yet another reason why house prices must be brought down a lot, lot more!
I agree - anybody working fulltime should be able to afford their rent or mortgage without Govt top-up. How you make this a reality in 5 years should be the first question that parties get asked in the election debates!
Harder to pay for all those generous programmes when a shrinking portion of our workforce is engaged in higher-value activities. Housing speculation and labour-intensive sectors have dominated our economy for years.
Our GDP per worker (and per hour worked) has barely moved in real terms since the early 2010s, which means we've experienced a lost decade having only grown our economy thanks to more workers working longer to pay more for everything.
For reference, the Nordic states have high incomes that are more equitably distributed across their populations because they can afford high taxes and a generous social safety net, thanks to their knowledge-oriented industrialised economies (and mining).
And the state treated a lot of vulnerable people atrociously.
Some of the stories out of the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care are the stuff of absolute nightmares.
Just in a cafe and a couple of construction guys talking about their workload falling off the cliff.
Yep, my neighbours were discussing the same at the weekend (although they were cleaning their boats)!
To back your anecdotal data point, just had an email this morning from a client who sells products into both resi and commercial construction. I quote: "sales have been very, very, very slow" and "it's hard to get leads over the line".
Familly member puts in dripper line waste water systems (Modern Septic tanks). Its real quiet but his maintenance business will get him through. Its going to be tough... I can actually see OCR coming down this year, I think the economy is going to hit the wall over winter and be a complete mess come election day.... All the social policy co-goverance stuff will be forgotten - It's the Economy Stupid....
Yeah I was literally thinking this morning it’s at least a 50/50 that the OCR could drop this year, although it will rise at least once or twice before then.I think things will be really grim by August.
As I've been saying for some time now.
The fellas at the RBNZ need to get out of their ivory towers more often!
One thing the fellas at the RBNZ could be doing is coming up with regulations to stop another housing price boom. Government should also be looking very hard at this too.
(But no - our major parties are too terrified! Bring back that horrible woman Judith Collins, I say. She drove National to work with Labour to pass the greatest change in NZ's housing policy ever seen by anyone under 65! Future generations with thank her even if they don't know it now. I want her back to drive through CGT so that residential property "investors" can have their interest deductibility back - or at least some of it.)
The big news is our budget tomorrow and its going to be a shocker.
Just received an email from National and we have seriously gone down the toilet in just 6 years.
What, National sent you an email and they talked down the last 6 years? Crazy times.
20% of 16 to 24 yrs olds unemployed in the urban market
Adult unemployment is less than 6% in urban areas but 80 million people have left urban area to return to rural areas. A great way to manipulate the stats.
The impact of a dwindling working-age population on China's economic capacity is decades away with their industries struggling to absorb the skills being pumped out of their education system.
China and India face a unique conundrum - adopt automation, AI/ML, etc. to retain offshoring prowess but, in the process, create far fewer jobs for their massive populations.
The CCP will take this very seriously. Way back when - The CCP gained traction due to high levels of youth unemployment.
The CCP has employed 83,000 Farm police to make sure people grow only what the government wants you to grow. They are going around destroying local pig farms and banana plantations. Im sure we have seen this somewhere in the past before.......
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1657768100899749893?s=20
Rents again... Yes again. They said yesterday its $600pw for the national median price.
Seven sharp last night interviewed the trademe head and Mike Hosking breakfast did a piece on it
There is 7798 rentals on Trademe across the country. 3906 are $650 and above. That is bang on 50 percent, one of those $650 rentals is the median
The asking rent is accepted by tenants, it isn't a negotiation.
I dunno. We suspect we might be having this conversation with our landlords in the near future. It's going to go like this: if our rent increases, we downsize elsewhere (we're in a large house so have this freedom - I'm well aware other's might not). House only has to be empty for a couple of weeks for it to not be worth the loss of cashflow (esp. when they have a mortgage to pay). Moving also has the added bonus of increasing the rate of deposit acrual, so it's not an empty threat.
Also, asking rent is not actual rent. Actual rent is measured from lodged bonds - plenty of properties asking for rents they are not going to get.
A lovely lady handed in notice to her landlord, couldn't find anything to rent so asked to retract the notice. Too late, already rented
She and her friend are moving to our place, as recommended by her other friend that is one of our tenants.
We are now getting a lot more than the last tenants paid us, but yes we have done some upgrading.
Sure she did. Funny how you always have a 'real life situation's to counter any data/evidence based comments
Dam my arch nemesis agnost the defender, is on to me again. /sarc
DP
Here's another anecdote, from just under a year ago:
We asked our last landlords for a $20/week rent decrease - on the basis market rent was decreasing. They declined.
We moved out, and the house was empty for a month - till they got in a new tenants for - you guessed it - $20/week less than we were paying.
So, instead of a $1,000/year loss in revenue, they chose to lose $4,000 instead. Go figure. Meanwhile, we're very happy with where we are renting, but we're not our landlords ATM, and we won't be treated as such.
DP
I agree but I also see a lot more rent arrears occuring later this year due to loss of income/overtime etc.... So i see rents going up but also collection costs. This is also a result of rentals transfering to Housing NZ to get interest rate deductions back... There are fewer left in the rent to those with jobs pool, and these are expected to be in the upper 3 quartiles.... hence the medium rent moves up... the effective medium being paid by all renters may not... There is no capacity for renters to SAVE landlords here.
The asking rent is accepted by tenants, it isn't a negotiation.
I have twice in 8 years negotiated a lower rent than asking, so that isn't true. Everything is a negotiation, always. If you are paying a mortgage on your rental and it has sat untenanted for 3 or 4 months, there is a good chance you will come to the table. Something is always better than nothing.
Just witnessed inflation first hand at the supermarket, $55 for a small bag of stuff, including $26 for a kilo of chicken breast!!!
Mate there is no need to pay $26 for chicken breast, goto an asian supermarket
Yeah usually we shop around a bit but didn’t have the time today
Limms opp the Glen Inness Railway station.... they are great.
Yeah - bacon was $26 a kilo when I looked 2 days ago - but none of the 1kg shoulder/middle bacon packs available anymore - it was all 200g unless I wanted streaky.
And for the love of pete, can we get some bacon that isn't covered in manuka honey? horrible stuff.
We've recently come back from a month overseas. Our spend on food (supermarket/store-bought and restaurants) was less per week on holiday than it is just living day-to-day here ... food is just unbelievably expensive now in NZ.
So many people in food production, sorting packaging distribution, shelp stacking checkout etc are close to minimum wage earners.... Let alone farm input prices rising, the entire chain has seen massive wage cost growth. It is a clasic wage-price spiral, and the RBNZ are using the classic response. No one is stacking or packing faster, there is no productivity growth only cost side.
Productivity will not increase until wages increase significantly.
Any examples of that working sustainably anywhere, ever ?
Cart, meet horse.
Have you studied any economic history? Spinning Jenny maybe? England Vs France... the industrial revolution edition?
Your examples of technological improvements are unrelated to your original statement about wage increases coming before productivity improvements. Generally historical technology advances have funded productivity step changes which have enabled wage increases.
I've a postgraduate qualification in business administration with a significant economic component & 45 years of experience in manufacturing operations & supply chains in NZ SMEs & multinationals from the factory floor to the boardroom.
Great resume. Now, back to the discussion.
Countries that push up wages of lower earning workers (through whatever mechanism - eg minimum or negotiated sector wages) have historically increased productivity the quickest, particularly when this is an explicit part of industrial policy, and workers are involved at the governance level. There are dozens of examples that you will no doubt be familiar with.
Let's use an NZ example - why the hell are we still doing horticulture like it's 1920? Where are our vertical farms, picking tables etc? We don't have the technology because we import cheap labour for the picking season instead.
I would have to look far to find chicken breast at $26.
Don't complain, try careful shopping.
There was an article on Bloomberg about New Zealand this morning. Talked about the growing budget deficit and inflationary emergency spending:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-16/new-zealand-budget-t…
There is a ratings downgrade coming..... will occur before the election.
.
All is now clear. The data was wrong.
Cv was 1.98 looks like a possible leaky to me, could not see the 4 print on onewoof
All is now clear. The data was wrong.
If things keep going the way they're going, they may need to revise that rule.
Where'd you get 4mil from? Clearly something doesn't add up...
I found it on a chinese page with a [google translate] 'mid-price' of 3.29M in 2021, and a recorded increase of 73%.
Doesn't mean it sold, or if it did why it's sale isn't recorded in either oneroof or homes.
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