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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, October 2, 2015

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, October 2, 2015

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6406 (mid-rate) this morning.

The US dollar weakened against all of its major competitors overnight with economic data disappointing.

Initial jobless claims climbed to 277,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 271,000.

The ISM purchasing managers index dropped to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August, although a reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to dip to 50.5.

The 50.2 reading represents the lowest level since hitting 50.1 in May 2013. Construction spending in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected up 0.7% ahead of 0.6% expected.

Eurozone manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace than estimated in September. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a five-month low of 52 in September from 52.3 in August, in line with expectation.

Germany's manufacturing sector expanded less than initially estimated in September. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 52.3 in September from 53.3 in August.  

However the French manufacturing sector returned to growth at a faster than estimated pace in September at 50.6, up from 48.3 in August.

British factory activity expanded at the weakest pace in three months in September, suggesting minimal support to the economy from manufacturing.

The UK Purchasing Managers' Index fell slightly to 51.5 in September from 51.6 in August, which was revised up from 51.5. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 51.3.

The Tankan Business survey that measures business sentiment in Japan weakened in the Q3 of 2015. The large manufacturers' index came in with a score of 12, missing forecasts for 13 and down from 15 in the previous quarter.

The outlook for Q4 came in with a score of 10, matching forecasts but down sharply from 16 in the three months prior.

Overnight tonight traders will be focusing on the US Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and  Average Hourly Earnings m/m.

Global equity markets were mixed with UK & Asia higher, US & Europe lower : Dow -0.51%, S&P 500 -0.37%, FTSE +0.18%, DAX -1.57%, CAC -0.65%, Nikkei +1.92%, Shanghai +0.48%.

Gold prices are down $3 at $1113 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil is down 1.1% currently trading at $45.14 a barrel.

Upcoming Data releases:
13:00 - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
14:30 - ECB President Draghi Speaks

Indicative mid-rate pricing:

  NZDUSD           0.6406        0.3%
  NZDEUR           0.5724        0.2%
  NZDGBP           0.4230        0.3%
  NZDJPY             76.76         0.2%
  NZDAUD           0.9101       -0.1%
  NZDCAD           0.8494       -0.4%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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