The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Tuesday, July 18, 2017

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.7316 (mid-rate) this morning.

A slow start to the week as investors await economic data releases before adding to their positions has seen the NZD trade tight ranges against all its major trading rivals. This morning’s inflation report due for release at 10:45 will dictate near term direction for the NZD. Economists are forecasting Q2 CPI to edge up by 0.2% following on from a 1% increase in Q1, while the fall in oil prices during the same period could very well see the annual inflation figure fall below 2% following a 2.2% reading in Q1.

Yesterday’s China data printed ahead of expectations with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding at an annualized 6.9% in the second quarter just ahead of the forecast 6.8% result, while Industrial Production y/y surged 7.6% well above the expected 6.5% increase. Surprisingly, there was very little reaction to the data releases.

Overnight Euro-zone inflation for the month of June printed in line with expectations edging down to 1.3% (a 6mth low) following May’s 1.4% reading.

Global equity markets are mixed - Dow +0.03%, S&P 500 +0.03%, FTSE +0.35%, DAX -0.35%, CAC -0.10%, Nikkei +0.31%, Shanghai -1.43%.

Gold prices are up 0.5% trading at $1,234 an ounce .WTI Crude Oil prices have started the week on the back foot, down 1% to $46.01 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.7316      -0.4%
NZDEUR       0.6373      -0.5%
NZDGBP       0.5602       0.0%
NZDJPY         82.41       -0.3%
NZDAUD       0.9381       0.0%
NZDCAD       0.9285      -0.1%
GBPNZD       1.7850       0.0%

Upcoming Data releases (NZST):

  • 10:45 - CPI q/q
  • 13:30 - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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