Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news major global trade choke-points are under threat and this may bring very costly work-arounds.
But first in the US, October factory orders fell sharply and by more than expected. They fell -3.6% from September to be down -1.4% from the same month a year ago. But to be fair, this is essentially a story of a drought of new aircraft orders (down -50% from the prior month). True, other order levels were soft, but only by a smaller amount, down -1.2% from September after being up +0.8% the prior month.
It may still be early days, but the new central bank policy approach in Turkey hasn't yet had any effect on bringing down inflation there. It is still running at 62% pa in November.
In Australia, there are building signs their economy is softening, and quite quickly.
In fact, a NSW survey of a wide range of businesses found that Christmas trading is expected to fall on average -11% this year compared to last year. Businesses in two of the state's regions are anticipating a decline in excess of -20% - and in those two regions almost half plan to cut staff after Christmas. Things are decidedly ropey.
And extending the ropey feel, a broader Australian survey found that activity is being propped up by making more inventory. Meanwhile sales are retreating and profits are under real pressure - although to be fair the overall picture is twisted by a big drop in mining profits. That wages rose while sales fell doesn't give you a good feeling about future employment, or wages for that matter.
Canberra is preparing a new round of cost-of-living relief measures to roll out if things get dire. They are most likely to be released in their May 2024 Budget. However those latest Business Indicators show that wages were up +9.7% in the year to September so it certainly isn't "dire" yet.
Later today, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its final monetary policy review for 2023 and is universally expected to keep its cash rate on hold at 4.35%. Tough talk about inflationary risks are falling on deaf ears in financial markets; they now price in no change all the way through 2024.
But we should all hold our breath. Conflict in the Middle East, and drought in Panama, means that the two vital canals for world trade are under threat and operating sharply below capacity. In Russia, the only two rail links from China have been put out of action by sabotage. (Not to mention South China Sea stresses.) In each case, the alternatives are very costly and will sharply discourage trade. It is very unusual that these threats are all happening at the same time. One measure, the Baltic Dry Index is zooming higher suddenly.
The UST 10yr yield are up +8 bps from yesterday at 4.29% with yesterday's slide arrested. The key 2-10 yield curve is still inverted at -36 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is a bit less inverted at -88 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now -110 bps and much less inverted. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.55% and up +15 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 5.05%.
In New York, Wall Street has started its week with the S&P500 down -0.6% in Monday trade. Overnight European markets fell -0.2, except Frankfurt which managed a tiny gain. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session down -0.6%. Hong Kong fell -1.1%, and Shanghai fell -0.3% both with sharp falloffs at the end of their sessions. The ASX200 ended up +0.7% which the NZX50 ended unchanged.
The price of gold will start today just on US$2,026/oz and down -US$45 after yesterday reaching an all-time high.
Oil prices have stayed down at just under US$74/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$78.50/bbl. These are 4½ month lows and levels first reached 16 years ago.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.7 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.6 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$41,583 and up +4.7% from this time yesterday, and confirming the break out of its recent range. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.4%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
107 Comments
Summer of discontent. Posted some weeks back that the new government would soon run headlong into, for want of a better word resistance, from the Public Service, the Trade Unions and Maori activism. So not even sworn in the first has leaked a confidential cabinet paper and the last are on the streets.
"resistance, from the Public Service, the Trade Unions and Maori activism"
Feels to me that they are running into resistance from you average New Zealander who can see Luxon has turned National into a parody of itself, in the pocket of the big business that most Kiwis don't want to to be associated with (fossil fuel, tobacco, rentier landlords). Plenty of buyers regret going around.
There is increasing amounts of news snippets to suggest that there is an anti-Kremlin/Putin Russian revolutionary movement occurring in Russia. This groups are against the war in Ukraine and it's effects have motivated them to fight against Russian armed forces inside Russia. Ukraine has denied responsibility for a lot of attacks in Russia and it seems this group are increasingly effective. The bridges might well be their work. If Putin continues on his path, he may well find himself facing a bigger problem at home. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
That article is pay-walled so no idea what you are trying to say here.
I have read this morning in the BBC that the summer offensive has been brutal and that the Ukrainian beachead on on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River near Kherson city will be very hard to hold.
Firefox 'bypass paywalls' extension works for me.
Try this: https://t.co/pTulpRkop9
For all its centuries of storied history Russia has only had one overturn of power and it took the distraction of WW1 to catalyse and formulate that. Putin has the history on his side centuries of the Tsars’ brutal security arms, modified and continued unabated by the Bolsheviks. There will be no sidelining such as Khrushchev, Putin like Stalin will only lose power by death.
FG. Not convinced history here is a valid guide. Pre revolution the church held unchallengeable power for centuries over the psyche of the Russian people, with the Tsar a virtual embodiment of God. While the tyrant Putin controls the population with a similar enormous security apparatus to the Tsars, and to an extent that of the bolsheviks, the church's influence has declined considerably. Putin affects a metaphysical influence when justifying his actions and rewriting history but an increasingly secular urban Russian population must be cynical about the Orthodox Church endorsing his gangsterism. Unlike Stalin I suggest there is a very real possibility Putin will meet an untimely violent end.
Well the Russians in modern times haven’t been that good at knocking off their installed leaders. Alexander 2nd certainly, but Nicholas 2nd was already deposed and then of course Lenin himself and that was almost botched. Undoubtedly Putin is fully aware that if you live by the sword you will likely die by it. The nature of his position would obviously be accompanied by personal fear, and likely paranoia, which inevitably manifest unhealthy and irrational outcomes. To have survived this long though, his apparatus for his security must be pretty damn effective and it is unlikely any attempt on him from any sort of range, would be successful. That leaves the inner circle so to speak, and it’s anybody’s guess as to what goes on in there.
FG.There were multiple assassination attempts on various Tsars. They lived in constant fear of terrorist attacks, despite the fearsomely effective Okhrana counter espionage service set up after Alexander was killed. The weak willed but foolishly stubborn Nicholas 2 was for long periods forced by the fear of attack to remain within his palace walls. The way in which Russia's internal security service appears to be failing so badly to prevent sabotage within the country suggests his security apparatus is perhaps not all that 'damn effective'. Putins physical and political existence depends on him maintaining the power and influence of his oligarchic gangster mates, even at the cost of having incompetent leadership at the head of his military.
Yes, it'll be Russians who'll take Putin out physically if that's the way he goes but as for change at the geopolitical level, I suggest there will be apple pie nourished strategists feeling rather pleased with their successful strategy of progressively degrading Russian military capability for the next decade or more.
Ukraine has already claimed 3 days ago that it blew up the China rail links in Russias east.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2023/11/30/embracing-the-collapse/
Worth a slow read - I've selected a point or two below. Pertinent to the nonsense here, now:
'Although it is doubtful that any of those politicians had a detailed map with a clear end point, the essence of what they were doing was simple. Faced with a falling rate of productivity gains following the exponential growth between 1953 and 1973, the aim was to lower the single biggest cost centre in business and government… that is, workers’ wages'
'By the time Tony Blair arrived to cement the neoliberal consensus into place, the entire UK population was caught up in a mass delusion based on the quasi-religious belief that the value of property would increase forever… thereby ensuring that the old days of boom-and-bust cycles had been brought to an end.'
This brings us to one of those great human flaws – our inability to process time. Our tendency is, for example, to blame the incumbent government for everything that goes wrong while they are in office. But in human systems, crises can take decades to be realised (although this shouldn’t excuse short-term idiocy of the kind which has become all too common these days).
And it will worsen as the unionised US/eruo auto industry cannot compete with the prices and costs of non unionised tesla and china.
Its a situation that will result in the death of unions or collapse of a key western industries and with it our standard of living (already happening)
Interestingly and financially the usa just passed a tipping point where they are now borrowing to pay interest on their debt. Which is now an unstustainable trajectory.
We also see the usa and europe both starting to falter on support for ukraine....
It would probably be the last chance for western leaders to react with meaningful long term strategic policies to avert unavoidable societal and economic decline... and join the romans place in history.
Is it me or is there increasing amounts of weighty commentary that is pointing to governments betraying their people by finding ways to drive workers pay down?
I've been commenting on this for a while now and have a comment in the Chris Trotter article on the effects of economic policies on ordinary people. These actions undermine democracy and the rights of ordinary people.
Your (PDK) links to the limits of growth make such action even more fractious and harmful to ordinary people. Today's Maori protests are just another sign of the increasing unrest as a consequence.
That's the question of all questions?
The bottom-end are being multiply-squeezed (think of a gig-working, smoking renter here, now - about to be squeezed X3) as the Elite try to extend under a sinking lid. This will be a contentious three years (if they last that long) but regardless, it will be a wasted three in terms of position ourselves for what is coming.
Systems teaching said this was always going to be how it panned our as we traversed the peak and began the descent - the major System will devour all others in an attempt to prolong. Said teaching also points out that prolonging is impossible....In essence, we already know that this lot cannot achieve their stated aims. My circles are discussing post-collapse society nowadays; this one is pretty much out of morphing-time and has just chosen to go back three spaces...
The bottom end never had it so good. The bottom end possesses smart phones that can access the entirety of human knowledge - Bill Gates has nothing significantly better. In the recent past only the wealthy could afford a bookcase full of books. The bottom end usually have access to running water and are not obliged to walk through a storm to use the outside toilet (my childhood). Best of all it has never been easier to escape the bottom end - my son-in-law went for a job stacking shelves at night but because he wore his smartest clothes they made him a security guard and within three years he is a senior security manager responsible for multiple large stores. That is NZ within the last five years.
If house prices reverted to reality the bottom end would be replaced by our current middle class with their student and mortgage debts.
Disagree.
It’s harder than ever for people with limited means to buy a house. Unless they get to a position of earning a high income, they don’t have the luxury of the bank of mum and dad to help them out.
It was much more possible to be ‘upwardly mobile’ when house prices were more affordable.
I thought bottom-end was the ~4% of the population who have no or minimal earned income (for sake of this argument my Super is defined as earned). You appear to define it as not owning their accommodation - that is a much larger group. In some very prosperous countries owning you own home is rare - maybe the Swiss and Germans would rather speculate with small manufacturing and leave property speculation to NZ.
Another distinction is in the definition of 'possibility to be upwardly mobile' - I'd argue it is possible however there is no doubt ever decreasing social mobility and the factors are interesting. To get fairly modest jobs you now need a degree - that rejects many talented people. For some to go up an equivalent number need to go down and the middle class (such as myself and most commentators) hang on to their positions of status like grimm death. Our society is becoming ever more class based - its not what you know but who you know in your identity group.
Artificial intelligence may ultimately turn out to be artificial stupidity, by the time it's sythesised all the porn, Kardashian episodes, youtube fail videos and Trump speeches. Throw in all the infections and Nigerian princes circulating and it'll probably pull it's own plug.
From what I've read and observed it is an energy issue or more specifically a cost of energy extracted issue and how those costs relate to a system that requires constant growth to survive. If the system doesn't grow at all it effectively is going backwards and implodes on itself. The cost of not growing is borne by society, not across society equally either, as many people globally are finding out. This all leads to lower wages and lower profits, businesses failing, societal decay, populism, polarisation and all those other fragmented words. To bring it back to New Zealand, people don't see it as a holistic energy issue, rather, a blue v red, landlord v renter, supermarket v green grocer, big box store v independent, rich v poor type environment where we're increasingly distrustful of people/groups/companies we come in contact with. Unfortunately, polarising election issues, calls by the opposition for civil unrest, and protests against polarising issues aren't going to unite us. We don't see the issue as a whole but more as smaller individual conflicts. Interesting and increasingly worrysome to see how these 'conflicts' pan out overseas and of course here.
I agree with your perspective Hemi. Take it one step further and it is easy to understand that the only way to ease the pressure is to reduce the population. The increasing dissension can only get worse if populations do not decline. A strategy to achieve that is required yesterday but it is not even being discussed. So the end result will be more have-nots looking at the haves and devising ways to change their lot. Singautim's comments indicate that there will always be a few who can swim against the tide and achieve what most can't. But PDK's comments make it clear that at the current levels there is just not enough to go around every one, and as more cannot be achieved affordably, then both sides of the equations must decrease. Ultimately though we are all headed back to a cave somewhere.
Populations do need to decline and will decline overall. Very interesting listening with Jeremy Grantham and Nate Hagans on youtube the other day although it is 2 hours long. Jeremy discusses population several times including death rates, birth rates, fertility rates etc. On a New Zealand theme though, we will pursue immigration (increased population) to pay for our indebted housing and import lifestyle which will lead to infrastructural issues, increased ethnic diversity and higher levels of socio-economic poverty, which will lead to further culture clashes and decay - we're in a loop.
Generationally we live longer and have more technology than our ancestors have had in the past but it's not necesarily easier now nor do we really compare ourselves to our grandparents, we all live in the here and now comparing ourselves with our peers in a competing world where the rich get richer. Since we are hitting the downslopes, more people will be negatively affected.
Buckle up, but as another blogger says don't confuse imminence with inevitablility. Things can have a tendency to muddle along in step changes. We're alert and that's all we can be I guess.
the only point to add now though is that technology makes information much more readily available today than it was in our parents and grandparents day. Pluses and minus's on that but people better able to challenge the line they are fed by what ever interest group. Hoepfully this makes governments more likely to be held to account, but so far I'm a little disappointed.....
It may still be early days, but the new central bank policy approach in Turkey hasn't yet had any effect on bringing down inflation there. It is still running at 62% pa in November.
Global Insecurity - Michael Hudson
Every hyperinflation in history, such as we’re seeing in Argentina now, whose prices have gone up 140% in the last year, every hyperinflation has come from the currency depreciation, from the balance-of-payments deficit. And Germany, now that it is deindustrializing, now that it cannot import, if affordable, gas and oil to run its industry, all of a sudden this anchor of the euro’s exchange rate has turned into a deficit, meaning the euro is looking like it’s on the downside.
The reality back in the 1920s is Germany had to pay reparations. The payment of reparations caused the currency to plunge. When a currency goes down, as Germany’s did and Argentina’s today, the price of imports go up. And the price of imports go up, increase the domestic price of food, the domestic price of doing business. And so the government then has to create more money to enable these transactions of the economy to take place at the higher price level.
In every case, the hyperinflation and even regular inflations are led by the balance-of-payments deficit, followed by a declining exchange rate, followed by increasing import prices and domestic prices, and then at the very end, money creation increases, just the opposite of what Milton Friedman and the Chicago School and the right-wingers say.
When you have a false view of what causes inflation for the last 100 years, ever since the 1920s, it’s not a mistake. It’s because there’s a social interest in having a wrong view. The social interest is essentially to squeeze government and essentially privatize everything.
What you’re seeing in Argentina now is that the incoming Mr. Milei is trying to create a new government. He’s dropped the idea of dollarization, but he says there’s a simple way to stabilize Argentina’s balance-of-payments. And it’s exactly what Argentina did in 1991, and that is you sell off the public domain. Argentina was able to stabilize its exchange rate by selling its banks, selling its natural resources, selling its public utilities. Milei says, we can raise the exchange rate once again and stop the depreciation if we just sell off everything, sell off our roads, sell off our streets, sell off our land, sell off whatever natural resources we have, and you’re going to have an influx of foreign money coming in, and that foreign money is going to buy up our government, what we sell off from the government, and that will stop the inflation, and now you middle-class and working-class people can somehow survive.
And, of course, the problem with this is once you privatize the public domain, the private owners are now going to raise the prices for public services. They’re going to turn government infrastructure into monopolies and extract monopoly rent, and all of this rent is then going to be remitted to their own countries abroad, and most foreigners in Argentina are Argentinians, the 50 families that run the economy, operating out of offshore banking centers, the Dutch West Indies, the United States, London, and so they’re pretending to be foreigners, so you’re having a huge privatization and the squeeze of the middle-class and the working-class.
In Australia, there are building signs their economy is softening, and quite quickly.
In other words, Fernandes’ point is that the key characteristic of the “rules-based international order” relates to the actual structure of the American (or British, French, Australian, etc) social and economic system, which seeks to enforce an order where the whole world is open to the penetration and control of their respective national moneyed classes. Which is why the order is about hegemony, and not about security, and why the former so often comes at the expense of the latter.
I'm all for a peaceful protest, but as soon as you interrupt my schedule to go about and earn some dollars of which a portion goes towards the infrastructure that you use (hospitals, welfare, roads etc etc), you lost me. Throwing your toys out of the cot as the election didn't go your way and then trying to hold the majority of people at ransom will not get you many sympathiser's, probably the complete opposite.
Thousands are taking to the streets around the country today to unite for National Māori Action Day protesting the new government's policies on the Treaty and co-governance
Actually thought that these are the policies that people voted at the election on? So not sure why you say it's not about the election?
The protesters arent reading the room either.
They are simply making it worse by getting in the way of average joe getting to their job - an av joe and fam who are feeling financial pain already.
The protestors are also oblivious to the fact that they lost the election in a large part due to peoples perception of their policies and want.
Possibly they have the worse marketing team ever. The new govt will love it as it means they can accelerate their processes and point to the protests as another example of how out of touch, wasteful and selfish that segment of society has become.
I guess we all have to learn to fit into the bigger picture.
This is as it should be right? If enough people are angry enough to protest (rather than the usual rent-a-crowd), say 100k people then the government should review this action. While there is no number of people required to sign a petition for action the more the better I would say.
What about the landlord protests when Labour axed interest deductibility? We'll put rents up, we'll sell our houses, etc. They took to the internet forums and media instead of the streets. They didn't just accept it and say "well we've had a good run, maybe we should pay some tax for a change"
Protesting isn't illegal Paashas. Landlords solved their problem by paying National to fix it. Many of the protestors can't afford to pay off National, they aren't the tobacco industry. This is how democracy works.
A skilled leader will avoid these issues by you know actually leading the country and bringing people along.
Well no shit, that happens when the top 10% collect a much bigger percentage of the overall productivity gains. Just look at the income gap between CEOs and the average worker over the last 30 years.
Pay people less so you can take more, and then bitch and moan that you're over burdened with income tax? Droll out the old "non-net taxpayer" argument ignoring that the taxpayer must subsidize the low income earner so the landlord can pay the mortgage. Let's scrap WFF and legislate a drop in rents by a similar magnitude and celebrate more net-taxpayers.
So much hand-wringing! Oh the humanity! It's sooooooo unfair :(. Those pesky old facts regarding net tax.
The taxpayer IS the landlord, you get that right? You can't service a mortgage without a high salary. So the Landlord is subsidising the 1 in 10 people on benefits "9.4% of the working age population received a main benefit (these numbers do not include those receiving Working For Families tax credits). " in this country.
You might want to research rent-control before you wish-upon-a-star.
"New research examining how rent control affects tenants and housing markets offers insight into how rent control affects markets. While rent control appears to help current tenants in the short run, in the long run it decreases affordability, fuels gentrification, and creates negative spillovers on the surrounding neighborhood."
TPM and elements in the Greens have something of a problem in that they have been returned to parliament with increased representation but remain without any say in government beyond what can be debated from the opposition benches and various committees. They will be joined in that frustration by the remnants of the Maori caucus in Labour. Consequently there are two main avenues then to promote their ideology and prospective policies outside of parliament by way of the media and civil disruption and of course those two are well connected in that the former will relish the headlines, on reporting on the latter. New Zealand might well be now facing a time of civil unrest not seen since the prime ministership of Muldoon.
I have a feeling, misplaced though it might be, that the $55 Million Public Interest Journalism Fund will have a few more conditions attached, ensuring fair/equal representation of both sides of a story for example.
I actually support the fund but it must be fair and it was simply a propaganda fund last year. I don't miss-judge the size of the task however, there is a chronic and systemic bias for the left in the media, ideological and also likely an impact of the squeeky wheel syndrome.
There was a degree of justification through the pandemic etc where it could be argued it was necessary to retain information flow to the public. But the fund was not needed before the pandemic and likewise should not be needed now. All subsidies become self defeating and inherently, inevitably introduce distortions as you suggest.
They are protesting against the latest policy decisions regarding smoking and the use of Te Reo on signage. It is a pretty clear agenda, to protest what they see as a backward step.
Perhaps you have misunderstood what the issues are but this is starting to look like ignorance.
.5 Bitcoin please ..do you need my wallet address?
El Salvador's #Bitcoin investments are in the black! After literally thousands of articles and hit pieces that ridiculed our supposed losses, all of which were calculated based on #Bitcoin’s market price at the time... With the current #Bitcoin market price, if we were to sell our #Bitcoin, we would not only recover 100% of our investment but also make a profit of $3 620 277.13 USD (as of this moment).
Can't tell if this is satire. Schiff has watched and spoken against Bitcoin since $600 USD, it's at $41,000 USD today. While talking up gold that has failed to perform for 10 years.
Had Schiff put his gold into Bitcoin in 2016, today he'd be able to convert it back to gold and relieve 76x more gold.
You look like an absolute fool when you continually ignore the greatest performing asset of the last decade, the same asset that is really built on scarcity and math.
Never in human history has there been an asset that doesn't have both a demand and supply lever. Learn or stay poor.
Poor Peter, constantly seeing the amount of gold he needs to buy 1 bitcoin getting higher and higher.
I'm sure it's just a bit now and he actually owns some. How many times can you get punched in the face until you learn.
2012 - 0.0030 ounces
2016 - 0.2166 ounces
2020 - 5.1265 ounces
2023 - 19.8677 ounces
The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges (available to be brought), is on a constant decline as well. Dropped in half over the last 2 years or so.
"The Tightening of supply" - Data by Glassnode
68% of the circulating supply of BTC has been held untouched for over one year. The bitcoin metric for coins held for over five years now sits at almost 30% of the total circulating amount. The illiquid supply metric, which measures the amount of supply held in wallets with minimal history of spending is also at an all-time high of 15.4 million bitcoin. The Glassnode report described that this increase in illiquid supply has moved in tandem with investors withdrawing their digital assets from exchanges.
That's a reasonable anology. And an obvious choice if you believe the asset price is going to increase over time ahead of the rate of inflation, or the yield / risk you could make from it. Land banking will be a significantly lower return, but it is (mostly) tax free. Personally I'd rather retain a smaller amount of a much larger number.
And so the gradual decline of our living standards continues. With the election of the new government it is becoming more apparent that there are no magic bullets to solve our money problems. We are constrained on all sides and have realistically reached peak export income. Which means we need to start living within our means or borrow more until that tap is turned off. Or sell our remaining assets to the highest bidder. The short term immigration hit is only delaying the inevitable decline. Our current lifestyles are unsustainable on many levels. Not the least of which is burning fossil fuels to gain energy. Our slow readjustment is going to be painful as our poorest will be the worst affected as per usual and whatever group they are aligned with and represent their interests will foster and foment that disenchantment. But as PDK repeatedly asserts there is no more growth left. We have wrung the planet dry and should look to surviving as best we can for the next decade or so. Learning to live with less. Had to happen.
No. This is not true. PDK and I have argued this to a standstill but there is no chance that there will be no more growth. Our main issue will be uncontrollable de-population in China, Japan and the West. If we survive that as a society we will innovate to continue to grow, changing energy sources as the economics require us to do so.
NZ is of course the lucky country, and our renewable electricity generation increased to 87% this year.
I suppose it depends on what you are predicating. Continued growth from our present population looks unsustainable to me. With a decrease in population then demand will automatically diminish. The fossil fuel equation is the determining factor. If we decarbonise as we need to where are our energy requirements coming from? Renewable energy requires ongoing maintenance which currently comes from fossil fuel energy. Maintaining our current infrastructure will become unsustainable and that amount of renewables can replace. Now nuclear in a NZ context might be worth exploring a la 1966 plans for a plant on the Kaipara Harbour. There were plans for 3 plants in the Auckland region. Doesn’t look good though.
The energy mix will need to change almost certainly I am not arguing that. Renewables will be absolutely fine to replace our existing energy sources over time. New battery technology will fundamentally change the value proposition for solar and bring the cost of renewable energy down to comparative levels.
The only hard part of removing fossil fuels is the chemical derivatives and these could also be resolved with enough time and money on biological replacements (think algae).
I hear you on nuclear, but actually Fast Breeder Reactors could be the answer if other energy sources were not more cost effective.
Good luck making fertiliser, cement and steel without fossil fuels. And the mineral resources to renewable everything just don't exist in any economically recoverable form. For example, the current copper % of ore is about 0.2% worldwide (and falling) so you need to mine and process a ton of rock (using fossil fuels) to get 2kg of copper. Solar panels, wind turbines, electric grids and EVs use a lot of copper.
Bollock - and stop cherry-picking.
Oh -and we didn't argue it to a standstill; this is a finite planet, draw-down is draw-down (WTF do you think the nacts have in mind? One off-extraction of finite resource, is what. If you can call that level of shortsightedness 'mind'). Depletion is depletion. Sorry, you were wrong. Period. Claiming standstill is just an inability to accept physics, in your case.
As always there will be an uneven decline in living standards across the globe. I think the extent to which climate change affects certain regions will accelerate/delay societal stress. In NZ we are in the precarious position of having a generally benign climate but needing to continue exporting to maintain any sort of modern lifestyle. Rather that subsistence living if our export economy collapsed rapidly. So while the ships keep sailing and our customers maintain a modicum of social cohesion then we are probably OK for a short while. Once our customers lose their ability to pay for our goods for whatever reason then our society faces some serious risks. Maybe 2 decades away? Heck I hope that the Chinese can raise their stop banks high enough and stabilise their hillside rice paddies to keep their food production going. Or can buy enough to make up the shortfalls.
Well now we have it that TPM did not swear an oath to the Crown, or to NZ, but only to their own.
But they will be allowed to take their seats, and receive all the pay and benefits that go with them. While treason is a term generally only applied in a time of war, could they be accused of it if they did something against civil order if they haven't sworn an oath of loyalty to the country?
They did still swear an oath to the crown
> When Te Pāti Māori MPs were called to pledge allegiance to the King, they each stood to first pledge allegiance to Te Tiriti o Waitangi, mokopuna and tikanga Māori, before they approached the Clerk of the House to make the legally-required affirmation.
The bar for treason is very high indeed, and no this does not make it.
" Treason
Every one owing allegiance to the Sovereign in right of New Zealand commits treason who, within or outside New Zealand,—
(a) kills or wounds or does grievous bodily harm to the Sovereign, or imprisons or restrains her or him; or
(b) levies war against New Zealand; or
(c) assists an enemy at war with New Zealand, or any armed forces against which New Zealand forces are engaged in hostilities, whether or not a state of war exists between New Zealand and any other country; or
(d) incites or assists any person with force to invade New Zealand; or
(e) uses force for the purpose of overthrowing the Government of New Zealand; or
(f) conspires with any person to do anything mentioned in this section"
This is another nothing issue, there was a one-word insult, it might have been a mistake, and if it wasn't then they might have a fun time explaining themselves on the Marae.
The crown is more important to Maori than most, without the crown we have no treaty.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.