Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news global eyes are on how China will manage itself out of its economic funk.
First a reminder that it is a public holiday in the US, Presidents Day, and financial markets are closed there.
To the north, Canada said it's producer prices fell marginally in January from December, as expected, and they are now -2.9% lower than a year ago. This is the fourth consecutive month of falls.
Across the Pacific, Japanese machinery orders bounced back in December after a terrible November. They came in better than expected (+2.7% vs +2.5%) but nowhere near enough to make up for that November -4.9% fall.
Later today the Chinese central bank will reset its Loan Prime Rates. They are widely expected to cut them both to support an economy that seems to be misfiring. The cuts won't be large, probably -15 bps for both the one year and the five year rates. Premier Li is urging officials to do everything they can to support the Chinese economy and "boost confidence".
Rivals are becoming concerned that China will dump production resulting from stimulus boosts on world markets. The US has already issued a warning to China on this.
In Europe, more evidence inflation is proving quite sticky in the lower ranges, just as it is here. The "last mile" is tough for everyone. Sweden said its rate rose to 5.4% in January, from 4.4% in December. Not exactly what they want or need. A rise was expected, but not by this much. This sort of backsliding affects inflation expectations, a crucial central bank metric.
And European natural gas reserves are at decade highs, and prices have dived. Overall EU gas reserves are currently over 65%, their highest level for the time of year since at least 2011, with Germany at 72%, Italy at 60%, and France at 50%. They started winter with almost 100% of their requirements stored in underground facilities, far above the targets they set for themselves. In the US prices are falling sharply too, now back to levels first seen in 1995. Too much supply, not enough demand. Suppliers using energy as a weapon no longer seems effective.
Off the coast of Yemen, although things have quietened recently, there was another serious attack overnight with a South American-registered bulk cargo ship attacked and probably sunk. Underwater drone attack weapons were likely used.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.33% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is less at -33 bps. However, their 1-5 curve inversion is still at -71 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion has lessened to -107 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.20% and dpwn -1 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.45%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.95%.
Although Wall Street is on holiday today, the S&P500 futures suggest it will open tomorrow up +0.4%. Overnight European markets all closed little-changed in a +/- 0.2% range. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session unchanged. But Hong Kong fell -1.1% in their Monday trade whereas Shanghai rose +1.6% in a post-holiday make-up. The ASX200 ended Monday up a minor +0.1% while the NZX50 fell -0.6% on some ugly earnings updates.
The price of gold will start today up another +US$3/oz from yesterday at US$2016/oz.
Oil prices are still just over US$78.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is also still just over US$82.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 61.4 USc and up +20 bps overnight. Against the Aussie we are also marginally firmer at 94 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer still 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.9 and up +20 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$51,908 and a mere +0.2% up from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at only on +/- 0.8%.
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128 Comments
“Arguably, listing levels have returned to some kind of normality now, so the reduced sales over the past month probably hints at some uncertainty around buyer demand, rather than a lack of choice.
"It’ll be interesting to see how sales and listing activity evolves in the next month or so, and how market confidence moves too. We suspect the demand would be there to match any additional supply coming on to the market, resulting in an associated rise in agreed sales activity as buyers can see more choice.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350185295/where-housing-downturn-hit-hard…
MSM catching on....
Even though interest rates remain higher than we are accustomed to and "January’s sales activity was at the second-lowest level in 40 years, CoreLogic said." he's still talking like everything is about to take off again...
Low sales + normal listing rates + higher interest rates = unsold houses = lower prices.
MOST People cannot afford to buy at current price levels, too much after tax income has to be spent on interest payments meaning your life is a wage slave to pay the debt, little faith that house prices will increase, and cost of living trying to consume whats left.
The unspoken reality that rates bills water bill infrastruture bills saving for retirement etc,, bills bills bills everywhere
This is why I believe there is another 20% down, 10% this year and 10% next or a combination adding to about 20%.
This only puts us back at 2015 ish levels.
Yep, that's a fair call, the only slight headwind (and not much of a factor) is the immigration.
The rates particularly are getting to a quite material level, interest rates at their current levels (and likely to stay until at least Q3) are punishing and rents cannot really go up as they are already circa %50 of Renter's pay.
13-20% seems likely, more that that if you discount for continued inflation.
Off Yemen; "Under water drone" = torpedo. What ever the technological capability might be, it is still a torpedo and if that is what happened, then this is another escalation. The powers will need to bring their anti-submarine capabilities to bear, and potentially even their subs, although those waters are largely shallow, littoral waters which limit sub capabilities.
Edit; 11:39 am Latest reports suggest not an under water drone but anti-shipping missiles. Two of them.
I don't agree. Militant splinter groups supported by a rogue nation, Iran, are trying to disrupt and hold the world to ransom. To me it is looking like Gaza is not the cause, but the opening play in a bigger 'game'. (remember Hamas kicked it off in a raid they were never going to win, and for which it was obvious the response would be huge). The bigger question is who are the second and third line players? Russia is trying to involve itself now, but were they in it from the start? Is China a player to elevate distraction and diversion from Taiwan?
Venezuela buys oil from Iran. Uses it to blend with their domestic crude. Venezuela has increased its exports to USA and other countries as the US have relaxed sanctions. Does Iranian crude or products refined from Iranian crude find its way into the USA? We probably do our best not to know.
100 dollar oil would be a bitch right now.
"To me it is looking like Gaza is not the cause". While I've heard this line from a number of sources, I have yet to see any reasoned analysis suggesting why this is the case. The timing and huge public protests in Yemen at the outset, along with countries traditional support for Palestine all match up to it being a genuine response. In the past you might have expected the US and UK to enact a naval blockade on countries carrying out a genocide, why does Yemen need ulterior motives? What evidence is there to suggest it wouldn't all stop if Israel ceased their genocide of 30K mostly innocent Palestinians and their forced displacement of 1.5m people on ethnic lines?
"What evidence is there to suggest it wouldn't all stop if Israel ceased their genocide..." that is the simplest of all the questions to answer; because Hamas started this knowing what the response would be. They got what they wanted. If Israel stopped, I would expect Hamas fighters to come out of the woodwork to ramp up pressure to again force Israel to react. Do not misunderstand me. I believe Israel has massively over retaliated in the way they did this. But I also believe they are correct in saying that Hamas (the militant wing and any group that supports it) must be eliminated in its entirety.
A part of this appears to be an attempt to unite a lot of disparate Islamic splinter groups under an anti-Israel banner. This looks more like Iran from this perspective as they seek control. The Yemeni groups are the Houthi, a fundamentalist terror group. They are not a legitimate government in Yemen. But Iran, while anti-Israel actually has it's eyes on Saudi Arabia. So in effect this will develop into a Sunni v Shia Islamic war after Iran has pulled together all those groups. Iran doesn't have the capability to take on Israel and win, even with the militant groups, but they may, just may be able to destabilise Saudi enough to gain a foothold there. But that will reverberate all around the world if they do try that.
Like the US wiped out Al Qaeda... it just wont happen. The political arm of Hamas is in Doha. Hamas has largely sacrificed the Palestinians in Gaza, they were completely aware of the response to their actions, Netanyahu is on the path to annexing the whole area, he already had a torch under the west bank. The only reason Hamas did what they did is to shine a very bright light on what was happening quietly anyway.
Anyone who thinks Israel can eliminate Hamas without ethnic cleansing Gaza is dreaming. Israel started this conflict with its occupation of Palestine and this is merely a continuation of that land grab. The world had forgotten all about Palestine until the October attacks. This was a well planned gamble by Hamas which is paying off. Israel looks like the genocidal fascist state it is and its allies are starting to realise they are on the wrong side of history. Joe Biden is now widely known as "Genocide Joe" and is practically handing Trump the 2024 election.
HG you're forgetting that Trump was the only national leader who supported Israel naming Jerusalem as it's capital, away fro Tel Aviv. Trump would be much worse than Biden. The "Genocide Joe" rhetoric is just BS noise from people whose lease on their brain cells has run out.
I don't disagree that Israel treats Palestinians badly. I do think that their response to the Hamas raid could have been much more measured. So far the biggest thing they've achieved is alienated the rest of the world.
Genocide Joe is handing Trump the election not because Trump is pro-Palestine, it is because he has alienated a big portion of the left by sending weapons for use in a genocide. These people were never going to vote for Trump anyway, but now they definitely won't be voting for Biden.
Trump would send in a lot more, but the young might swing far enough to give an independent, RFK Jr, a serous shot at the White House. It'd be the first time for America. But can an independent President get the senate and congress to function? Likely one of the compromises he will have to make is send plenty of bombs and ammo to Israel too?
You have no evidence that Hamas knew the international community would standby and allow Israel to commit genocide. While I agree it should have been obvious from the racism, mass imprisonment, theft/ ongoing illegal occupation of Palestinian lands, I think the complete abdication of the US/UK in their supposed role of preventing human rights abuses/ genocide has come as a surprise to many. Particularly, given what we now know were crocodile tears for the suffering Ukrainians.
The evidence is history itself. The world has stood by and did bugger all while Israel stole occupied lands from Palestinians, or while they shot bullets at kids throwing stones at them. Anyone watching what was going on there can see that. But that is not primarily what Hamas was expecting. what they were looking for was the massive over retaliation of Israel to achieve international sympathy to the Palestinian plight. Sinwar, identified by independent observers as a total sociopath, was and is fully prepared to sacrifice all the Palestinian women and children in Gaza to turn Israel into an international pariah.
The problem is he will ultimately fail. There is simply no where else for the Jews to go. The Balfour decision was done for several reasons, but most of all, post WW2 anti-semitism was rife and no one wanted the Jews. I doubt that has changed much since. So ultimately the nations of the world will sit by and tacitly at least, support Israel to ensure it's own survival. Israel is proving that right now.
70 years of genocide and ethnic cleansing by Israel is my evidence. Israel has got the "holocaust get out of genocide free card". For what Hitler did to them they can do to one other race guilt free (sorry Palestinians but that's you). The west is falling over itself to pander to Israel. Look how Germany defended Israel from the genocide charges in the ICC, if there was ever a sign you are committing genocide it is having Germany saying "there's nothing to see here".
Also what the Muslims did to the Jewish in the State of Israel for 1000years, it was invaded by both Christians and Muslims, with the Muslims committing multiple genocides and forced conversions. That the name Palestinian was first in reference to the Jewish population in the area, before yet another series of genocides against the Jews for over 1000 years before the Muslim Ottoman groups took it up as a name to intentionally block Jewish people living in their historic lands around 200 years ago is not lost. It would be like the British calling themselves Maori and telling iwi they have no rights to land in NZ and then murdering most and forcibly raping those left in an effort to wipe them off the face of NZ. That is the level of insane crazy Hamas has right now in using the name Palestinian only in reference to themselves. The history of the lands mean the Christians and Jewish have as much right to the name Palestinian but sure lets pretend history of the Muslim religion does not exist so Hamas can call it theirs originally eh. Lets also let the British call themselves Maori as well, no harm after all if the names and indigenous cultures do not matter.
However it is now the identity of the Palestinian Muslims for about 100 years so it is immaterial who was there first. Because the whole area was semitic before the Christian & Muslim invasions the Palestinian Muslims and the Jewish are both each others closest genetic relatives. By rights it was Jewish first historically for as long as both religions existed but if we are going on recent grounds both sides will have to live with each other side by side. Only one religious group seeks genocide of the others completely and that is Hamas.
Unfortunately Hamas will do anything to hurt mostly the existing Palestinian people and retain control over them. Using Israel as a reactionary pawn fits them nicely. Even making sure that its people are forced to stay in places where there are known evacuation alerts and recruiting child soldiers (also a war crime) is just another tool in the box to ensure the population is even more under Hamas control. Destruction and chaos was what they wanted and they got it (in case the genocide they were committing and still committing to this day goes unnoticed by many commenters). Sadly No War Fought Has Zero Human Cost. It is one thing to start a war, completely something else to stop it when fundamentalist religions are involved. We see it in the genocides in Sudan as much as any nation. How is it we let the genocides in Yemen and Sudan go completely unnoticed when hundreds of thousands more have died? Why are we just sitting back with literally no ICJ no UN umming and arrhing on those, no mass protests for hundreds of thousands of deaths... Well this is a social media war for control and influence. Israel and the Palestinian peoples are just pawns in this one. Sadly there is no real chance for a 2 state solution because none have ever existed successfully with such religious and terrorist groups dividing them. One state of secular governance with both religious and ethnic representation (for all religious ethnicities including the Christians) for cogovernance is probably the only peaceful way because I doubt with a 2 state solution the Israelis would approve of Hamas stoning LGBTQ people in the streets and murdering women for being too free.
It seems a big failure that while the British failed miserably to structure a state of Israel & separate Ottoman state they also left a divide that is impossible to run as a separate cohesive state. Like it was always designed to fail. Not just a rush job but a cynical way to further punish both groups for the war in itself. It was well known how anti semitic they were and well known how much the desert campaigns cost the allies. But that is just me being cynical; they could not honestly have known they would start religious wars between the two groups for over a decade when they set it up right, not after they just saw a religious genocide that spanned the globe.
Because intentionally rounding up every man woman and child of a religion across most the continent into factory rooms and gassing and shooting them then dumping millions into mass graves is exactly like unintentional civilian deaths in a urban war after giving multiple prior evacuation alerts. Sure it is you racist
Taiwan? Given the devastation and humanitarian tragedy in Gaza from the Israeli invasion, consider then the outcome in Taiwan. Mountainous terrain densely populated high rise urban areas. Taiwan has enough capability to counter strike and resist. Not an easy nut to crack, far far harder than Gaza or Ukraine for that matter.
My current dark interest is in whether Putin has serious ambitions to invade the Baltic states, assuming he has some kind of victory in Ukraine. My thinking, unfortunately, is that he probably does have that intent and that he will probably act on it later this decade
Russian warfare, protraction, patience and persistence and pitiless to citizens and combatants either side and here they have come to stay. Ukraine’s best defence has now become the Dnieper river. That historical campaign feature may well become a de facto border.
He has already talked about Narva (Estonia). Once he has said something he generally has a go at it, even if it is twenty years later.
No-one here is talking about Svalbard. The Russians are talking about Svalbard. That's much more interesting to me because it involves the melting of the northern sea passage and the Russian's wish to control a more direct shipping route from East Asia to Europe and to extort fees from that traffic.
What HM has said Foxy. People are just fodder to be spent on political ambition. You'd be naive to think otherwise. Many dictators and tyrants through history have demonstrated that attitude. Putin is doing it today. Yahyar Sinwar has done that to the Palestinians.
https://worldhistoryconnected.press.uillinois.edu/3.1/heyer.html
Fuller did a great lecture in 1968, about the in-pirates and the out-pirates; the in-pirates bet on a system, the out-pirates try a range of systems, find the chink in the armour, and become in-pirates.... Then...
"Sweden said its rate rose to 5.4% in January, from 4.4% in December. Not exactly what they want or need"
Looking at the link, they include mortgage costs in their CPI?
"The decreasing prices were offset by rising housing costs. Main contributions came from electricity, monthly fees for tenant-owned apartments and mortgage costs for owner-occupied housing. Additionally, fees for water and wastewater as well as rented apartments rose in January."
Boosting confidence??
The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) recently assessed that the China’s shipbuilding industry fields 232 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States, representing almost 50% of total global shipbuilding capacity
https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-s-navy-is-using-quantit…
Nasty to systematically target groups and individuals who don’t meet your economic or ideological criteria. Amidst his rhetoric, Luxon stated he’s got your back if you’re getting up at 4am to operate a corner dairy? Doesn’t even make sense. We don’t need those relics in 2024…or this tobacco lobby outfit masquerading as a coalition government.
They may not be paying enough tax to cover their families healthcare, education, infrastructure and superannuation. If they live to 90 they may actually be more of a parasite than a dole bludger that lives to 60.
The people that pay the vast majority of the tax are the upper end PAYE earners.
JimboJ,
"the parasitic drain that is a dole bludger". I have no issue with cracking down on them or welfare benefit abusers, just as long as at least as much effort is put into catching tax evaders. here are a couple of figures. Ministry of Social development figures for 2016/17 estimated welfare fraud at some $24m, while the IR estimated white collar crime at $1.20bn-over 50 times higher.
research by Victoria university found that tax evaders had an 18% chance of going to prison, while for those convicted of welfare benefit fraud, the chance was 70%. If we want to get rid of parasites, wouldn't it make good financial sense to go after the big ones first?
But it's much easier to act tough with those least able to defend themselves and it plays to the baying mob.
Depends how you choose to see "contributing to society". Do you just see money or do you choose to see a wider perspective?
Some wise ones suggest the contribution of the poor and needy teaches compassion and empathy, teaches one to be less judgemental and critical of anothers plight because one never knows that they themselves may find themselves in need, teaches one to be aware of how they speak of others. Some say karmic lessons. Some say love thy neighbour as thyself.
Why would you not speak out against the other "parasitic" drains - the banking cartels, the rentier capitalists, etc - what is their contribution to society?
Of course it's also part of the divide and conquer MO and it would appear you're well and truly sunk in it.
I fully support the government's decision to be tougher on beneficiaries to find a job. Providing accommodation to many unemployed people, I can tell you first hand that 90% have no intention whatsoever of finding a job. Worse, they revel in their position of not working, they have an entitled mentality and they give each other advice on how to best stay on the benefit with the least hassle.
I think they tighten immigration requirements sometime in the next few weeks, they have to or they will have a disaster on there hands... Many of the smaller businesses looking for staff will be putting these plans on hold this year, the work is not in the pipeline anymore. Engineering companies doing it tough up here in Silverdale.
Yes JJ, it's unfortunatly difficult to separate those really in need (the few) and the bludgers (the majority).
The majority of our regular guests (travellers and trades people) have checked out by 8 am. Beneficiaries get upset if we knock on their door before 11 am to clear the booze bottles and ashtrays (yes they somehow always have money for alcohol and smokes). Also their room is generally (not always) a huge mess, where the carpet can barely be seen.
There you go, I spoke my mind!
Gee to think that people with Permanent Genetic Diseases and Incurable Conditions Could Fail to be MAGICALLY CURED after a few months on the Jobseeker benefit and fail to find an employer to hire them. Lets cut their income and see if that works.
I have seen this kill a blind friend, a friend with MD, a friend with MS, a acquaintance with cancer. I guess your answer is a final solution trending towards Aktion T4. After all why stop there why not go after the genetic relatives as well also susceptible to passing those diseases and risks on to other generations... Yvil you could possibly be one of the worst people to hold the species title of human on this site. I feel disgusted and hope your family disowns you once you let your opinions on disabled people be known to them while they themselves are becoming disabled.
Good points, I do think too many do gooders have not been exposed to how these people live, they honestly believe they are decent people trying to do their best and somehow failing despite an extremely low unemployment rate, when really they just do what they want and expect us to pay for it.
I’d be looking at a dole bludgers card that can only buy healthy food from the supermarket, I don’t see why we should pay for their smokes and booze.
Hang on, the Reserve Bank is aiming to increase the number of unemployed by 50,000 or so to "control inflation" (aka suppress wages).
Of course those people are going to consist of the least motivated, least talented and least able (physically or mentally). It doesn't mean they aren't providing a service to NZ.
I don’t see why we should pay for their smokes and booze.
Too hard to police and too many loopholes to exploit. I used to flat with someone on the dole for a while and they had a payment card from WINZ that wouldn't allow them to buy smokes or booze. They would buy supermarket gift vouchers from the service station then go buy the booze and smokes, go figure.
No most of the disabled, sick and their carer support are on Jobseekers. That is why when you target "jobseeker" beneficiaries you are mostly targeting those with lifelong disabilities, their carers and those with severe illness like those with cancer. Even someone with an incurable genetic condition that has robbed most their muscles so they cannot lift their arms and after falls has a severe brain injury so they are half blind, cannot read and do not know where they are and why they are there goes under jobseeker. They need a certificate every 6 months to prove there have been no magical cures for genetic disease that is completely unable to be created with no research in the last 6months. Unsurprisingly GPs and specialists found it more a massive waste of time and funds in the health system to produce WINZ certificates every 6months for the bullshit policy.
Work, Yvill?
I doubt you know the real meaning of the word.
It's landlords who have the parasiitic mentality - and who are the parasites. Lets be very clear about that.
The joke is that this ideology is attempting to screw the bottom-end in multiple ways, but said bottom-end is already tapped-out. Blood-from-a-stone territory.
The bigger System, above parasite/sucker, is 'economic growth', and it's hitting real limits; this government is to be pitied; they haven't a chance. That which they - and J.J.Yvill - promote, is past.
Gee to think that people with Permanent Genetic Diseases and Incurable Conditions Could Fail to be MAGICALLY CURED after a few months on the Jobseeker benefit and fail to find an employer to hire them. Lets cut their income and see if that works.
I have seen this kill a blind friend, a friend with MD, a friend with MS, a acquaintance with cancer. I guess your answer is a final solution trending towards Aktion T4. After all why stop there why not go after the genetic relatives & punish their children as well also susceptible to passing those diseases and risks on to other generations... oh that is what this government is doing. Well how nice for them, don't forget it can take weeks & even months of productivity away from NZ to grieve.
You sometimes see people arguing that this or that specific change in zoning rules in indiv NZ cities has made a big difference. Perhaps, but over the 17 yrs of data what is perhaps more striking is how similar the total rise in (nominal) rents has been in all 3 main centres. Link
Meanwhile, tax evasion and tax fraud is estimated to cost New Zealand as much as $7billion per annum. But it gets only a fraction of the funding for investigation compared to benefit fraud.
The tiresome policy of kicking the beneficiaries gets attention though - as the comments in this forum illustrate.
And we have had and still have welfarism for property, and welfarism for older non workers who don't need it. Few have received more welfarism than those with property in recent years, and it persists.
All this from a PM who says "If I can pay, I should", while clutching every last bit of taxpayer money he can buy any means possible - EV subsidies, private superannuation scheme to stash property in etc.
The silliest things about "get tough on beneficiaries!" are:
1. Do they actually expect it to work, or are they aware it won't?
2. Have they thought about how the problems were created? It's odd creating these issues with policy that devalues work and undermines housing stability, then getting angry at and trying to punish the result of their work.
3. Why is it they never live by their values? It's always rugged individualism for others, but taxpayer welfare for themselves.
Rick I think you will find that as social benefits reduce work increases. Take India, China or Indonesia for example, the social benefits are zero, the work force participation is 100%.
Taxpayer welfare of non-productive sectors should not exist. If you are talking about (and I know you are) the accommodation supplement, it is there to ensure these do-nothings can have a roof over there heads, surely you are in favour of that or would you rather they live under the stars (or your back yard?)
You might want to look at Blue Bridge, looks like a private company without any government involvement can do it.
I don't want another ferry disaster ether, but I'd rather have the inter islander closed down than have the wellington bureaucracy get yet another main-line hit from the government teat.
At least the Government are prioritising the important legislation quickly....(my head hurst)
Gee to think that people with Permanent Genetic Diseases and Incurable Conditions Could Fail to be MAGICALLY CURED after a few months on the benefit and fail to find an employer to hire them. Lets cut their income and see if that works.
No most of the disabled, sick and their carer support are on Jobseekers. That is why when you target "jobseeker" beneficiaries you are mostly targeting those with lifelong disabilities, their carers and those with severe illness like those with cancer. Even someone with an incurable genetic condition that has robbed most their muscles so they cannot lift their arms and after falls has a severe brain injury so they are half blind, cannot read and do not know where they are and why they are there goes under jobseeker. They need a certificate every 6 months to prove there have been no magical cures for genetic disease that is completely unable to be created with no research in the last 6months.
Unsurprisingly GPs and specialists found it more a massive waste of time and funds in the health system to produce WINZ certificates every 6months for the bullshit policy. Time the GPs and Specialists stated would have been better spent if WINZ did not even ask for the certificates at all to begin with because there was no need to restate a permanent genetic disease does not get cured. It is like telling someone water is wet and them still not getting it so they ask for multiple engineers reports while there is an engineering & building crisis on to restate water is wet every 6 months.
"Some New Zealand universities are at risk of running out of money to pay their bills this year, according to a warning in a Tertiary Education Commission briefing."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/509620/nz-universities-facing-a-liq…
"...the commission regarded Victoria and Massey universities as high risk, and Lincoln and Waikato universities as medium risk."
A week or so ago there was a link to Uni staffing levels & salaries with a summary of student numbers. VUW had twice as many staff per student as Auckland and Canterbury.
Then theres their multimillion dollar property portfolio and new building program...
Can I translate?
There are real limits to growth.
The Universities forgot what knowledge is, and went with 'what pays'. Nobody wanted to pay to know about limits to growth, and the Universities swallowed their own bulls--t. So they, like most of society, bet on a bigger future. That misunderstanding is now - ironically - coming home to bite them on the bum.
I call it ignorance...
Also they spend multi-millions purchasing student pubs over the last 10-15years (the bowler, the cook, gardies, monkey bar) and converting them to exert their control over the city and student culture in the name of improving their reputation, while also spending up revamping the river to look better, then culling staff to save costs. The egotism at the top of that place is maniacal, even if it does offer good education.
Mike Hoskins was bemoaning how everything in NZ feels broken at the moment, successive Govs differed infrastructure investment, much like WGTN city council, rather spending on glamour and ideology.
It must be said that National had to focus on CHCH rebuild and Kaikoura road rebuild etc.
Now we are faced with
- Creaking Health system
- Looming poverty for retirees
- Education where kids just do not turn up
- SH1 closures, local roads that are potholed, or waiting for cyclone repairs.
- Ferries that scream (do not take the risk)
- A looming power shortage
- I am not sure there is a shortage of police, rather we need tougher justice.
Budget 2024 is going to be tough.
I liked the move to tighten up benefits yesterday. Greens will scream from the rafters of course, which makes me happy.
Saw a cop arrest some dude for begging and harassing motorists at a crossing in Rotorua. 6 months ago we would have been told to be kind. If you're able-bodied enough to walk around town with a sign asking for money, you're fit enough to help prune kiwifruit vines.
You really think that dude was arrested because National have been in power for 4 months?
*radio static* "10-7 roger Luxon said arrest the dude, result code K9 back to base"
Yes, I have confidence National will be tougher on crime but let's not conflate third party "reckons" to suit your narrative with politics.
As for the Kiwifruit orchards, did you hear of the stories of Kiwis not being hired because they'd prefer migrant workers that'll give half their wages in accommodation?
https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/horticulture/they%E2%80%99re-not-hirin…
Even Mike Hosking is catching on.
All those "Assets" which we have been freewheeling on for decades are stuffed.
We have reached the end of being able to leverage credit.
Resources are tapped and theres too many people everywhere, few of whom can make ends meet. New immigrants who can be loaded with debt are preferred where possible. Everyone is slowing running out of viable customers
At some stage soon we will need to lower interest rates to keep people afloat, but raise interest rates to strengthen the dollar ....
Cost pressures are going to get worse not better, despite any official numbers on inflation.
one of many Elephants ... how to cut a shrinking pie to try and keep "demand" afloat
The underlying predicament is that governments everywhere will run increasingly massive deficits ... which will further debase the money supply as actual goods and services flatline .... meaning inflation is "sticky" surprise surprise
Net result, cost pressures dont abate and there is a need to lower interest rates but also increase interest rates
The system is broken and insolvent - unless you continue to produce and consume increasing amounts of goods and services eventually capitalism falls over
For those who believe in Kondratiev long economic waves or phases (I do) we are clearly in the fourth tuning where we loose trust in the institutions that used to protect us. The exit is historically either war or some form of technical innovation....
I am guessing that AI may be the next big thing, but do not think thats going to help resolve the debt burden.
With the Middle East / Ukraine and possibly Taiwan, or a proxy North/South korea first then Taiwan - War may be the reckoning that allows the gov's to write off the debt burden reset expectations of a less globalised world and launch a new perhaps digital currency.
Whats clear to me is that there is no way the current debts will ever be repaid with current dollar value... This could well have a bad ending equity wise for boomers whose assets are exposed to international markets and current valuations. Under war footing govs can do anything, perhaps covid was a practice run.
War is also a failed institution. The trust in institutions is lost because people are waking up that they didn't protect us. Covid was a practice run for these institutions to try and hold onto their power.
Technical innovation will not save us... That belief is no different to the biblical belief that the Messiah will come again to save us.
As for economic waves, I do not believe. Economics as we've created is not cyclical, it's purely linnear thinking with some ups and downs on the way. Nature is cyclical and we've created an unnatural system in our quest for superiority, certainty and domination.
The fourth turning does have some merit but it's on such a small scale compared to bigger planetary and cosmic cycles. Other mystery teachings suggest we have 2600 year, 14000 year, and 26000 year cycles and we're transitioning through one/all of them now.
One could say the Roman Empire is burning again - do we recreate it as has been done again and again throughout our short known history - or do we create something new out of the ashes?
I'm not sure what led me to watching this but it's pretty cool. Feed two people for a week for $50.
I see two NZs, one where the high term deposits help and one where the high rates are killing them. maybe those in the middle just cutting back on expenses, funny I did not think that those with big mortgages where out eating smashed avo on toast all the time to start with.....
I think the high OCR is causing collateral damage, if they had just stoped spec on housing with targeted hit, ie non interest rate deductability.... oh labour did that .. wait a minute?
Cannot to too many other bubbles in NZ, def not sharemarket....
No mention of our nearest neighbour facing similar issues?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-20/the-death-of-affordable-housing-…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/ken-henry-australias-tax-system-…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-19/coles-woolworths-supermarket-pri…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-05/price-gouging-grocery-prices-ene…
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