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Special report: 10 reasons why GST should not be hiked

Posted in News

Watch on our video page here Watch on YouTube here Bernard Hickey delivers a special report in association with BNZ, including a look at 10 reasons why the government should not increase GST from 12.5% to 15%.

The include: 1. The amount raised after compensation for poor to middle income taxpayers is unlikely to be enough to close the gap much between the top income tax rate of 38 cents and the family trust rate of 33 cents, which was one of the aims of the tax system transformation Prime Minister John Key was arguing for. 2. It creates an inflationary risk, particularly if retailers choose to throw in other cost increases such as credit card surcharges to confuse customers. 3. It creates a risk for the overseas tourism industry, given a 15% GST rate here would be well above the 10% in Australia, which is our major competitor and provides most of our tourists. 4. A hike opens a big gap with Australia and risks encouraging workers to leave New Zealand for lower living costs there, which defeats the purpose of the reforms. 5. Retailers face significant costs from repricing goods  and changing IT systems which will either reduce profits and dividends, or be passed on to consumers in the form of higher costs. 6. A big political risk is opening up as Labour and the Maori Party oppose the move. 7. It creates the risk of online leakage as New Zealanders buy anything they can from sites offshore without the GST 8. It doesn't fix the ruinously high marginal tax traps and the dead weight of an inefficient tax system producing legions of bureaucrats. 9. A higher GST increases the political pressure at some stage for exemptions, which would make the tax less efficient. 10. A higher GST increases the risk of the growth of an underground cash economy where services in particular are not reported, all of which increases the risks of crime and money laundering.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

38 Comments

#4 Have you looked at

#4 Have you looked at Australian living expenses recently? 2.2% is only the difference between NZD being at A77c and A79c. Anyway we'll be getting income tax reductions which makes this all neutral.

#5 Goods aren't constantly repriced at retailers? Why do they keep sending out annoying mailers to let customers know what there current price is then?

#7 You can't get goods delivered from overseas without declaring their value and paying any duties, unless they are gifts. Have you been illegally importing goods Bernard?

#8,#9,#10 Come on, a 2.2% increase is going to increase evasion? Hoards of people will evade a 15% tax who are quite happy to pay 12.5% right now, really?

Now as a residential property developer I stand to be the biggest loser on all of this. If I have $1.5m of stock on the date of transfer, I'll end up paying an extra $33,000 GST which I won't be able to pass on to purchasers as all other residential property is GST exempt.

Despite this I'm not actually opposed to the idea of a GST increase, because there should be some real benefits to the economy.

Has anyone ever decided against

Has anyone ever decided against a holiday overseas because the country's consumption tax is 15%?

As a regular tourist, it has never concerned me. Airfares are a factor, accommodation costs (to a degree), but never the level of VAT. Tourists come here to see New Zealand, to ski and to enjoy our unique activities.

Retailers are constrained by consumer demand with regard to price increases. Look at the prices of televisions over the last 2-3 years. Everyone said that when the exchange rate fell (USD) television prices would go up...... they did not.

#6. I'd have thought the

#6. I'd have thought the bigger political risk is the fact that John Key has proven himself a liar.

None of which are compelling

None of which are compelling reasons not to raise it.

@Chris_J: "Anyway we’ll be getting

@Chris_J: "Anyway we'll be getting income tax reductions which makes this all neutral."

What a dismissal....spoken like someone who's on a high salary so will be better off....and its not neutral...its Neutral or there abouts for the Govn but not for many PAYEers, especially those around that upper tax threshold. Those well above and those well below dont see the extra cost.

The tax change makes no or little fiscal sense and adds to the cost of Govn....I find it interesting that ppl with a similar attitude to you would bitch about the cost of Govn and the complexity the "red tape" every day but then take the $ even though there is an extra cost of Govn to re-imburse the poor.

Two ways to give tax cuts, an actual cut and removing Govn "work" or not doing new Govn work hence reducing the need to up tax in the future...Add that that $200million would get eaten away in time....the Labour cost of re-imbursing is going to rise....Also the black economy makes more sense when you have a higher GST...which will also eat that $200million...so its pointless...

Goods can be imported via airmail and if a low value are not stopped by Customs...also there are only so many Customs officers....but its not apractical bigge because of our water border, unlike a US state say where its trivial.

So it makes no sense on any level other than self-interest.

regards

In the poll I've voted,

In the poll I've voted, NO, as a protest against a weak half-hearted approach to tax reform that is very unlikely to see our economy rebalance with a "step change". With appropriate tax (and public sector) reform we could see a flat, broad, low to mid 20's - and probably not even have to bother messing with GST.

[Anyway just an aside about GST, why don't we remove GST on foodstuffs that have no extra fat, sugar or salt (fss) added to them, and, maybe increase it on those that do? Sure, hassle and all that, but so is treating the ever increasing negative health outcomes of the kind of 'marketing' linked to increased fss in processed foodstuffs.]

"9. A higher GST increases

"9. A higher GST increases the political pressure at some stage for exemptions, which would make the tax less efficient."

this may not be a -ve reason..
Take an exemption on fresh veggies, fruit, milk, tap water, fresh meat, butter, fish, eggs and personal savings.
1/ This would provide some of the tax break to the low income earner...
2/ Make healthy fresh food more competitively priced over unhealthy processed foods, in the long run reducing loads on the health system, obesity, diabetes, heart disease etc
3/ One would assume this would also create a larger local market for producers.

When high sugar products like fizzy drinks are substantially cheaper than milk and even water, something is very fundamentally wrong.

"Has anyone ever decided against

"Has anyone ever decided against a holiday overseas because the country's consumption tax is 15%?"

That's a pertinent question. We had two overseas visitors stay with us this summer who both noted how expensive New Zealand is compared to home and how it is significantly more expensive than Australia.

One of the visitors was from the UK and he said price most definitely IS a major consideration when people there choose holiday destinations. He actually made the point he could have a month's holiday in Australia or three weeks in New Zealand.

Obviously there's more to the price difference than GST, but adding 5% to already higher prices is going to be significant.

Begs the question, how many

Begs the question, how many National voters feel like they're getting what they voted for?
http://bit.ly/goodbyetax

Good for you Bernard...!!......... my

Good for you Bernard...!!......... my opinion on the matter is well documented in recent blogs.

Chris J...(Lassies lil frien) you obviously have no grasp on the wider ramifications of a GST increase and the subsequent social cost...

there are people out there a plenty hanging by thier fingernails just above the WFF vacuum........ all thats needed is a tipping point and the tax burden will increase at both ends of the spectrum and in 12 months ...YOU.. just may feel the effect of paying more in social benifit taxes.

The fudamental plroblem is that the source of taxation inequity is not being addressed simply because it is too politically hot to handle........ and that is quite simply WRONG and piss weak I might add.

Further I suspect Chris J that you have only given half the story to your GST burden, as it would not surprise me to learn that you have been claiming the GST back at purchase then finding the loopholes in the tax law to create a rort in your own interests............ if you have not ......well then your a bit slow aren't you.

"5. Retailers face significant costs

"5. Retailers face significant costs from repricing goods and changing IT systems which will either reduce profits and dividends, or be passed on to consumers in the form of higher costs."

If you have to change IT systems because of a change in the GST rate then you chose the wrong system in the first place - it should be as simple as changing a single variable in the database...

Will all farmers etc who

Will all farmers etc who have claimed the GST value of their land back at 12.5% claim back another 2.5%? What will this cost the taxman?

1. There is more in

1. There is more in the tax changes than adjusting between consumption and income taxes (property for one).
2. Competition (where it exists here) will prevent rorting.
3. As a frequent traveller NZ is overpriced anyway, I paid less for accomodation in Sydney than I did in Akaroa, we are not by dint of distance been a price sensitive tourism destination.
4. With corresponding tax cuts a spurious point.
5. One off cost, pain in the neck but prices change all the time.
6. Who cares, they raised gst without compensating tax cuts and lets see if they pledge to reverse it and the tax cuts. Besides I am looking forward to coverage of another Labour party bus trip hopefully replete with a singalong.
7. True but minor and there is nothing stopping customs holding parcels until duty is paid like they do in the UK.
8. True.
9. Both major parties recognize that NZ probably has the best GST system in the world, the UK was a nightmare to comply with because of exemptions.
10. If only, aside from the Queen its the only thing I miss about the UK. "how much for a cash job".

#1. I had wondered if

#1. I had wondered if maybe they'll meet in the middle somewhere, i.e. if the top tax rate cant come down to 33%, maybe they'll make both 34 or 35%.

#2. A one off inflationary effect, or 2.5%

#3. Wouldnt stop me traveling to a country.

#6. Of course Labour will oppose. Which seems a bit rich considering they introduced GST, and then raised it.

At the end of the day, its another $2.50 on every $100. Low income & benificaries will be compensated. Key talked of some people effectively paying half the income tax they do now, I would imagine this is people below the average wage (not that they pay much to start with).
Something has to change. I dont agree with a property tax, and you cant have the top 10% of all tax payers paying 76% of the income tax.

What a lot of rubbish

What a lot of rubbish - these are some of the weakest arguments I've ever seen.

#4. Lower cost of living over there - Have you been to Australia lately? As a regular visitor to Australia - lower living cost in Aus is a myth. General goods in their super market are generally 20% higher than here in AUD.

#5 - changing IT system - I've worked with many retail and POS systems - Believe me it takes a few minutes to change GST variable and may be two hours testing.

#3 Tourism: in the UK - their VAT rate is 17.5% - a big drop in their visitor number in recent years? Nope

#6 Maori party already indicated that this will NOT be a deal breaker - Old news...

This is more like TV One sensational news item. We really need more quality and robust arguments - not something from a back of weetbix box.

I repeat......It’s the very essence

I repeat......It's the very essence of the politicial social ideaology that needs reform and that is "what is right to a level of acceptability to those who are the largest contributors"
vs "what is wrong to the level of unacceptability to those who are the largest contributors"

It is the middle class who will pay (upper lower) but either way it is always they who will bleed from the nose.

Who says we will actually

Who says we will actually get a real tax cut? Trust no politician and it sure will ramp up the black market.

Yes, I've done a flip

Yes, I've done a flip flop on this one as well. I thought putting GST up made sense as it appears to reward earning and punish spending.

I'm not convinced anymore because of the cost and disruption of change and the fact that it serves to distract from the core issue.

The core issue being the government is too expensive for the economy.

Roger W. said.....The core issue

Roger W. said.....The core issue being the government is too big for the economy

in one Roger!! and all the permutations that arise from the wetnursing thereof.

Sorry, not one of Bernard's

Sorry, not one of Bernard's strongger peices in my view
Most of these points are unfounded or weak
Point 8 is the only one I really agree with

So to all those who

So to all those who say that government spending is too high.... just what are the exact areas of overspending and or are many just being dogmatic and myopic?

GBman......Yes the Headline lacked scrutiny

GBman......Yes the Headline lacked scrutiny and in depth research.... but the bloody horse is half way up the bloody hill

Conversley the GST hike also lacked "robust discussion" and will be scrutinized as a poorly thought out tax restructuring......... it was just easy and unlikley to be challenged by Labour therefore voter proof...... so I would not be so quick to jump on Bernardo' eh

How bout National timing thier popularity poll to make it look like an endorsement of this traversty..... how bout that little weet-bix cheap shot now that's bulls%$t for ya.

Always be careful the hand you hold is not the one holding you down.

Sean........ Social Welfare for one

Sean........ Social Welfare for one

do you think they are gonna let us in there to scrutinize overspending...? I'd have a bloody field-day.

Outsource consulting is a freakin rort if any of my aquaintances are not shitting me as they stuff the wads in the old pockets.

Commissions/ study groups /think tanks/ logistics I mean holy shite man this is a friggin gravy train and no I probably would keep shtum if I were able to lick me some.

Cripes mate what time is it where you are...?

@AJ Good point. I voted

@AJ
Good point. I voted for National feeling fed up with Labour Social Engineering, Now we know,the ministers rorting by renting their houses, using state cerdit cards for personal stuff, we had the esteemed working groups advising us how to catch up with Australia. look at the recent developments involving Mark Weldon, and Don Brash. We have great choice of Socialist Vs Greedy freemarketers who would do anything to make some bucks and help their mates. People are being advised to steer away from property , is this the way to build confidence and reward a new behaviour?

Might have missed the mark

Might have missed the mark on this one Bernard.

As for sourcing goods from overseas, I certainly buy stuff from overseas below the 400 NZD threshold and with the way the USD has been I refuse to pay the 30-50% premium to "support the local". But I guess that is just market forces at work.

If I have 100K to

If I have 100K to invest, would I:
1. Put in a finance company with higher interest
2. Buy some shares in NZX
3. put it in some fund managers
4. buy a rental prop
5. Stick in term deposit with the big (australian) banks

Answer for 1) will be NO, nope, nada
2) and 3) may be but I need to grow some bxlls
4) probably yes, it's still a good prospect
5) I probably would

YES I've read all the arguments for and against property investors in this website

Bernard, this should be reduced

Bernard, this should be reduced to Top 5 only.

#2. It creates an inflationary risk, particularly if retailers choose to throw in other cost increases such as credit card surcharges to confuse customers.

Inflation is pretty much under control currently thanks to the recession. Past experience showed raising GST from 10% to 12.5% had little impact on inflation

#3. It creates a risk for the overseas tourism industry, given a 15% GST rate here would be well above the 10% in Australia, which is our major competitor and provides most of our tourists.

Yes, but our low $NZ(compare to $Au) is far more attractive to tourists.

#5. Retailers face significant costs from repricing goods and changing IT systems which will either reduce profits and dividends, or be passed on to consumers in the form of higher costs.

Minimal costs. Big retailers have barcode scanning, even RFID, technology. Moreover IT systems these days are built to be flexible for these type of changes.

#7. It creates the risk of online leakage as New Zealanders buy anything they can from sites offshore without the GST.

Goods bought from overseas via the Internet will still incur GST if total value is over $300. Also, their are not many Internet retailers that removes their local VAT or Sales tax for overseas buyers, Amazon does but most Euro e-tailers don't.

#6. A big political risk is opening up as Labour and the Maori Party oppose the move.

Well, Labours job is to oppose on anything, but they have no alternative solutions. Maori opposition to GST is weak. ACT and Peter Dunne party support is strong and enough to get legislation through.

Bernard I don't disagree that

Bernard I don't disagree that the "top ten reasons" were a little flawed and may have even made( Kun The Kunning).. now known as Kun Li... smile and wince simultaneously but.......

Good for you Bernard..!! you did something to attempt to measure the public revulsion to this little fiasco......... and what did ya get.......? baaaa...meow...snivel..

Hey and where are the usual suspects eh..? Wally/ Thompson/ Rudd/ Andrew J /Justice/ Kunz....eh ? how the hell do you start a riot without those guys..?

footnote ..Bernardo' it may be wise to ask Kun Li not to use his real name here as it obviously is too upsetting for some fellow bloggers...... onward rode the brave 600..

we'll probably get a credit

we'll probably get a credit rating downgrade if they go ahead with these tax cuts that we clearly can't afford, and that will lead to us borrowing even much more than a billion a month.

¨...changing IT systems which will

¨...changing IT systems which will either reduce profits and dividends...¨

I think you're in danger of over egging the pudding here Bernard. The UK recently dropped VAT to 15% as part of a stimulus package which has been subsequently pushed back to 17.5%. So two changes to VAT over the space of a year and not much whinging was heard!

If the problem stems from

If the problem stems from having the marginal rate of tax different to that for Trusts, simply equalise that by say reducing the personal marginal rate to 35% and make the Trust rate 35%.
That will surely be less loss of income tax and could help towards implementing the GST consumption tax at 15%, plus politically won't open the government up so much to Labour etc going on about giving big cuts to the 'fat cats'

GST increase - #*%!! Overnight

GST increase - #*%!!
Overnight my savings will be ravaged by ANOTHER 2.5% and it won't fix anything.
I'm retired, forced out of work early by ill health,unable to get state assistance because of a little too much in the bank. But its nowhere near what I'll need to supplement national super and It's not my fault I'm no longer in the pre-planned position of not needing a state handout at 65 ( slim, always ate my veges, used to exercise a lot, never smoked).

Unavoidable Local Body / Power Company charges to name only the most unfair symptoms of a broken system and a " public don't cares about the cost - lets borrow, spend and assume a rainy day will never come" attitude, are huge culprits in what we see unfolding further each day. Now the Govt is on an ill thought out "borrow up" to compensate for the sensible portion of the public that is extrapolating their financial's and seeing the end position.

Interest rates staying down ( disincentive to savers and encouragement to borrow) are adversely affecting all of us, eventually bankrupting the economy and now with the proposed GST changes they want to erode my savings by 2.5% overnight with no compensation for me, or net national gain.

Being objective -Bernard's reasoning is good, but a few of his points are pretty weak and its good to see opinions on this site that are stimulating.
How do we around here change things as Democracy gives us the Govt we deserve - its not the 5% of us that can see it coming, but the other 95% that will wonder what happened, whose mindsets we have to change and quickly.

SimonD Says: February 24th, 2010

SimonD Says:

February 24th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
¨
. The UK recently dropped VAT to 15% as part of a stimulus package which has been subsequently pushed back to 17.5%. So two changes to VAT over the space of a year and not much whinging was heard!

So What.....? who gives a toss about whinging in the UK..... first off it's 17.5 back to 15 then up........ you see the back step there uh. so it came as no surprise...1

SimondD ...the UK has no liscence on Apathy or deaf politicians.

GBM @ 10.40am. So you

GBM @ 10.40am.
So you stick your $100k with a bank for 5 years and get a guaranteed 6.75% ( more if you work the interest reinvestment peiods properly), less RWT.
Yet if you use your $100k and buy ( leverage into) a rental , depending on where, you'd probably be in negative returns from day one. Who knows what JK will actually come up with in May. But whatever it is it's unlikely to enhance the property calculations; just clarify them. So really your investment is actually a gamble that capital gains will improve your return by more than the leverage factor of 6.75% p.a?
I could do the sums to tell you exactly what you would have cash in hand in 5 years time on your $100k. You won't be able to do that with your rental.
But life is all about risk I suppose, and the appetite for, or fear of it, alters with age.

Fungus - establish a home-based

Fungus - establish a home-based business. For example, sell stuff on TradeMe - plenty of folks shop at Sally's etc to purchase their wares and then resell them via the internet for a small profit.

I assume you would register such a business for GST (so can claim back some GST costs) and a number of your living expenses (i.e. part of your power, your internet access charges, transport costs etc etc) are tax deductable. TradeMe's accounting system provides excellent records of your listing/commission costs and your sales (breaking out the GST component for you).

It seems to me with the present overtones of this government - they firmly intend to screw PAYE earners, people living in their own homes and savers. Time for this sector of the population to learn to participate in the system to their advantage.

Isn't that what they're doing,

Isn't that what they're doing, Kate? Turning the family home into a rental ( or selling it and buying a couple of renters with the equity); renting whatever shelter is needed; using the tax and banking systems ( who'd be nuts enough to have 'savings'!) to the benefit of whatever PAYE is paid etc etc. All good stuff for our long term economic health.
W. Kunz - your turn, take over....

Nicholas - my suggestion above

Nicholas - my suggestion above is to turn the family home into a business, as opposed to a rental (as the latter was always a rort).

Kate, Use ebay instead -

Kate,
Use ebay instead - and send it overseas - export business!