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Brother in law's guide: Fixed mortgage rates are nudging higher again
By Bernard Hickey Here's the short version. Longer term fixed mortgage rates began rising again in early August after a couple of months of stability. This will prompt some to jump from floating to fixed as they consider buying for the first time or buying more rental properties. This is despite the Official Cash Rate remaining on hold until mid 2010 at least. This has surprised a few people and may prove politically unpopular, but it makes sense when you look at the underlying drivers for interest rates. It reinforces the view that interest rates have stopped falling, particularly floating rates. There appears nothing to lose by jumping from floating to fixed now.
Firstly, longer term interest rates have risen globally in the last month as governments borrow heavily to finance huge budget deficits and as 'green shoots' of economic recovery emerge to stoke inflation fears. Secondly, the banks' cost of funding new loans continues to pressure rates higher. Part of that is natural as the world sucks debt out of housing markets generally and longer term wholesale rates rise, but part of it is somewhat artificial. At the end of June the Reserve Bank told the banks they needed to raise more money from regular local investors in the form of term deposits and less money from institutional foreign lenders in the form of 'hot money' that rolls over every 90 days. This has pushed the banks to compete harder for term deposits, which is pushing up term deposit rates and therefore funding costs for longer term mortgages. Everyone's situation is different, but those who want certainty for a few years and want to jump before rates rise too much should think of fixing. The chances of being caught out by another slump in mortgage rates in the next couple of years is now low. Longer version to come
1 Comments
well as the customer there
well as the customer there is no point giving the umbrella back to the bank when it is sunny - and you know the rest of the story....
Yes and because the move
Yes and because the move will be into fixed term, the result will be even more pressure on fixed term rates. All sure signs of a sick economy. Throw in the rise in taxes we know must come and in rates and insurance and fuel and freight and food and all govt fees and clothing and electricity and gas, jeez what's left? End result will be less spending on stuff, more home vege gardens, an increase in thieving and the need for more police, more converted containers to keep the crims in, more WINZ frontline staff to cope with the extra unemployed. Oh this is going to be a fun place to bring up a family. Those who are not on a floating rate, but are trapped in a fixed rate due for refi in say 2011, man are they going to be happy as. They can't afford the break fees and they know now they have missed the boat. They are looking at rates over 10% by 2011.
Those on fixed rates my
Those on fixed rates my like to investigate if their lender offers the same clause mine (Sovereign) does, which allows you to increase monthly repayments once during the term of the loan, by up to $1000 a month. My mortgage is split into four accounts, two fixed, two floating. One of the floating ones came up for renewal in March and went from 9.5% down to 6.05%. I accepted the decrease, but put all the amount saved each month against the other fixed loan, which is fixed at 9.75% until next April. No break fees, but the increase in repayment against the higher-cost loan has so far reduced that loan by almost $2K more than the now lower-rate loan (they had started off about equal). Breaking the higher loan and capitalising the break fee simply wouldn't have given me that saving.
Glad, I have listened to
Glad, I have listened to Tony Alexander from BNZ and fixed in March 2009. Now it would be 2-3% more.
Ashley Consider the fact interest
Ashley
Consider the fact interest rates will not come down for a very long time - shortage of money, central banks fighting high inflation due to printing money. Cost out the break fee over 5-year opportunity to fix. Results could prove interesting. S
Bernard Hickey - always enjoy reading your articals ... post events :)
Shean Fix was only for
Shean
Fix was only for two years - was halfway into it, ie only one year to run. At the time, no one knew how long the existing low point would last for (as it was, about 2 days - I got my 2-year fix on the other portion in just in time!).
But here's what I'm saying: if I'd had perfect foresight and the willingness to sit down with endless spreadsheets and work out all the possible permutations over the next 2 years (which is the longest I ever fix for - life is too unpredictable and I know all about being locked into real estate in a way that hurts) maybe I could've saved a buck or two by breaking and refixing.
But life isn't all about the extra buck or two you might save, it's about getting the best deal you can for the life you want to live. And I realised I could achieve a very similar result over the year left to run on my fixed portion by upping the payments the way I did. All I'm suggesting to others who have similarly split mortgages is that they might like to investigate whether this would work for them.
If we had all waited
If we had all waited for rates to drop as predicted we would have missed the bus.
Wally is onto it... shame
Wally is onto it... shame the survey finshes at 10+%... would've been interesting to see who realises that it could hit 20% again like in the 80's. Get tough now, pay of the loan real fast and get debt free. Changing my spending and reviewing my mortgage, i have reduced my term by... 19 years!.. Plenty of guys earn a LOT more than me. However the mortgage might be bigger too I guess. Trouble is there is this idea that a 25 year mortgage takes 25yrs to pay off. Stick it to it in 5 is my advice! Trouble is we love our comfy lifestyle and are quite happy to let this steal 20 years of our life in struggling with debt, and then be 20 year behind in savings etc...
Work hard, save hard, grow your own veges now!
That's a good point Jamman,
That's a good point Jamman, an increasing number of mortgage holders will be paying down principal like mad. That's even more cash departing the economy for places overseas. Cash not going into the retail trade. I'd love to know what % of vehicles have had the reg put on hold. Off the road they go, not buring petrol, not paying taxes, not using up rubber, less chances for the tax police to dish out the daily number of tickets, less loot for Bill to waste. Maybe that's the real reason for the $80 cellphone fine!
...Wally: Though currently my cash
...Wally: Though currently my cash is departing in paying off the loan, by doing this I am saving myself (and the economy) vast swathes of interest going offshore over the next 20 years. When I'm debt free, I will also have a (relatively) huge surplus of income that will no longer be needed for debt servicing and this can then be spent on other things (Won't be going in to offshore investments!).
The cash departing the country now is not mine anyway, I am just repaying my debts to whoever I owe it to.
I hear that the idea of 50 year mortgages has been floated... no questions who would benefit most out of this! The first 20 years would just be 99% interest.
When will the love affair with credit end? The whole world is eating itself up on I WANT MORE!, I WANT IT NOW! (...or I'll have a paddy?)
"this can then be spent
"this can then be spent on other things" fat chance of that Jamman, the taxman has his eyes on it mate and no matter how fast you move, the bugger will get you in the end. See, you forget, all this govt fiscal debt, is going to be yours, all yours! "When I'm debt free" ha ha ha and a he he he, Jamman's only chance, is to flee.
Sorry Wally, I'm already paying
Sorry Wally, I'm already paying income tax on this... sure I'll have to pay GST if I spend it but so what? Even if the tax rate goes up to 50% or more, the taxman (he's a nice chap really) will take it whether I have debt or not. The net result is still more disposable income. If my interest paid per annum is $10-$15K, doesn't matter how you look at it, that a fair bit more 'spare' coin... besides if I'm in the habit of paying an extra $2500 per month of the mortgage, when its gone, this extra will be very welcome.
How much debt do you have Wally?
What tends to be the case is those earning big spend big, the amount of disposable income is not necessarily closely related to the income. Have to keep up appearances and all.
Beside, where would we flee? To Aussie? Looking pretty grim there too. If you want to run to Macedonia or Brazil or middle earth or something, go for it, but this is the real world.
Come on guys, someone stand up for a bit a good old thrift, patience and restraint.
Let's not knock the taxman too much, I sincerely hope to pay more and more taxes...
A couple of million dollars in tax a year would be great!
But I do think raising GST is a great idea. 20%? The lower income families could be compensated for this with a 20000 income tax free threshhold, or similar.
Let face it, the money that some avoid or evade is worth a lot more than the tax paid by low income earners.
Maybe if GST is increased,
Maybe if GST is increased, Drop GST on unprocessed food and whole meal/wheat grain breads...ie Fresh veg , meat. fruit, water, unprocessed milk(not reconsituted)....., cheese butter, veg oils maybe even just apply to NZ grown??
This would then 'subsidize' the lower income people for fresh food. And for the whole country hopefully have people eat better, be healthier, lower the health bill..heart diabetes, obesity etc.
Those reaching retirement would be fitter and work longer, up the retirement age.
The Down side...
maybe bankrupt the country when people start living even longer lol.
Simply 'discounting' fresh foods by 12.5 or 15% has potential for a lot of 'side benefits, health and fiscal.
Steps, once you start messing
Steps, once you start messing with gst this and not that, it leads to chaos. There is not reason why councils could not establish alotments, other than pure bloody pig headedness on the part of beaurocrats. They work well in the UK and would do so here. Then it's over to families to do the hard yakka. Given the 'speed' of the govt 'strategy' and total lack of concern over property being unaffordable, I don't fancy your chances of seeing a dam thing being done apart from the container conversions that is, oh and the evasion of MP perk disclosure.
Can't have Gst on this
Can't have Gst on this and that, as Wally says. The cost to businesses (and hence the consumer) would be more than the savings. We understand little of the cost to businesses of the cost in complying with tax regimes. GST is good and it works, but a multilevel regime would be massively complex to manage, comply with, police etc...
Evasion would become a huge nightmare.
I like your allotment idea Wally, but as you say, not very likely. I'd use it if it was available and council around the coutry typically have vast swathes of greenbelt land that could be used. Would be good exercise for us too.
No point being agin' the govt though, the Nats are pushing thru a lot of infrastructure stuff at lightning speed compared to anything Aunty Helen would have. Okay, they aren't perfect, but get real folks; if the 'people' had their way the country would be properly broke in 6 months. No taxes, lots of benefits, pay everyone moonbeams, minimum wage of $25.
Re the perks, MPs carry a lot of responsibility, open themselves to a lot of criticism and in all reality, get paid far less than their private company counterparts. Not sure about the cheap flights for life, but perhaps I'm just jealous, I'd love it! Whats fair for what they do?
$150K? Compare with some city council CEOs on $400K+. They shouldn't rort the system, but how many of us would do the same in their boots? Ever pay cash for something to avoid the GST? Most of us would at least try to get everything we are legally entitled to; tax rebates, WFF, Expense claims...
Lets have some comments on what is fair remuneration for an MP? What would YOU charge to do the job? For me, would touch it for less than $150K... probably wouldn't touch it for anything!
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