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Housing market lifting: First National
Real estate agents First National New Zealand said they were "cautiously optimistic" about a better year in 2009, with "noticeable increases" in open home attendances, web inquiries and general inquiries in the first two weeks of the year, compared with the same time last year.
First National General Manager John Stewart said the Reserve Bank making good on its intentions to lower interest rates was helping, and that the fall in the Kiwi dollar had brought about more interest from UK and European buyers.
"Without doubt we must accept and plan for the fact that any lift is going to be slow, sure and protracted. However, a quiet lift in open home numbers, a discernable increase in "˜buyer seriousness' and a lift in web enquiry has been noted in the majority of our offices," Stewart said.
"In some centres this has translated into more contracts in the first two weeks of the year than for the whole of January 2008," he said.
"In other centres even though enquiry is about double what it has been, buyer interest is yet to translate into a significant increase in contracts."
"It's not just investors creeping back, or people coming in from out of town. There seems to be a little bit more movement from people within cities so that would seem to be a more genuine reflection of the market."
First National has about 75 offices nationwide.
5 Comments
Hmmmm the housing loan approval
Hmmmm the housing loan approval data seems to be showing a rather different story from that claimed above for the first weeks of January, see here:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c16/data.html
Based on the above and the historical data one can calculate, allowing for the slight difference in the number of days covered thusfar, that housing loan approvals numbers (first 18 days January equivalent) were 15,472 for 2008 and approx 14,763 for 2009 - equivalent total dollar values of those approvals to the 18th of January are $1790m (08) and approx $1478m (09).
Not much sign of a lift in the first few weeks of January there!
Care to verify those figures Alex? Beware of agents unverifiable pronouncements I say........
Well done Andy.
Well done Andy.
Andy Loan approvals are not
Andy
Loan approvals are not the only indicator of sales & I would suggest not a very good one in the current climate. Many are refinancing to take advantage of lower rates.
I understand only about 30 percent of home owners have mortgages, so what percentage of purchasers require loans is probably unknown.
Notice that the increase was in "Contracts" not "settlements", therefore there should also be an expected delay before any loans required for purchases actually show up in the stats.
While it is right to be cautious about vague "optimistic" statements, those working at the coal face get a much better view of the real situation in their area, than those looking at dated data collected for purposes other than that for which it is being analysed.
quote: “In some centres this
quote:
"In some centres this has translated into more contracts in the first two weeks of the year than for the whole of January 2008," he said."
Care to provide the precise numbers in each of those supposed centres with more contracts than Jan 08?
If not, then this press release goes into the rubbish bin and doesn't get published because it is not news worthy, simple really! (If I was a journalist that is...)
I understand the background to
I understand the background to comments raised folowing our mid-month market trends release last week and can add as follows:
As at 19th January, the information we had coming in from member offices showed several distinct trends:
Firstly, enquiry at open homes and across all portals was demonstrably ahead of anything noted for several months...and in many cases ahead of same month 2008.
Secondly, purchasers were picking out newer stock and contesting these...multi-offers a regular feature.
Thirdly, in a number of areas the first fortnight of January saw substantially more Contracts emplaced than in either December or January a year ago.
Our people in the following areas were, at 19th January 2009, trending toward doubling sales confirmed in January 2008:
Lower Coromandel Peninsula
Christchurch [Esp north & west]
Central Otago [Excluding Queenstown]
Manawatu rural towns - Feilding
Kapiti
Waikato Rural towns
Areas trending to 2008 sales levels as at 19th January and generally ahead of December 2008 were:
Nelson region [Incl Motueka & Golden Bay]
Wellington North & West
Rural Southland towns
Taranaki [NP and Stratford]
Auckland fringe
Central BOP
We will not publish indiviidual office figures, and like those questioning our release, will watch with interest the month-end results.
Bin the release if you wish...we merely noted a strong change and felt it important to comment...some people are keen to hear of indicators mid-stream in addition to historical, reflective, month-end summaries.
Cheers
John Stewart
General Manager
First National Real Estate