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Latest Roy Morgan opinion polls shows National climbing to 44% support, but an election result now would be 'too close to call'

Posted in News

The Government has had a strong jump in support according to the latest opinion poll from Roy Morgan.

Prime Minister John Key’s National Party saw its share of support surge to 44%, up 3% from the last poll conducted at the end of May.

The latest poll was conducted by telephone with an NZ wide cross-section of 909 electors from June 3-16.

But while the rise in support for National is positive for them, less positive is the fact that their coalition partners have experienced a slight dip, with the Maori Party 2% (unchanged), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future now on 0% (down 0.5%).

On the other side of the political spectrum, support support for Labour has dropped to 33% (down 2%), while the Green Party has dropped by half a percentage point to 11.5%.

Winston Peters' NZ First party has surged to its highest support level since November last year, with rise to 6% (up 1.5%).

Elsewhere, the Conservative Party of NZ  is on 2% (down 0.5%) and others are on 0% (down 1.5%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts to 120.5 with 54% (down 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared with 33.5% (up 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan said the latest poll show National on 44% "almost tied" with a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition (44.5%, down 2.5%) "leaving NZ First (6%, up 1.5%) as potential powerbrokers in determining who would form Government if an election were held now".

“Pressure on United Future Leader Peter Dunne over his alleged leaking of a Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) Report has already led to his resignation as Minister of Revenue and Dunne faces another challenge to re-register United Future as a political party following its de-registration after being unable to prove it had the 500 members required to be a registered political party. The New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for United Future slumping to 0%, its lowest since February 2013.”

Comparing where the major parties sit now versus where they were on election night, November 26, 2011, National is down 3.3 percentage points, Labour is up 5.5 percentage points, and the Greens are up nearly 0.5 of a percentage point.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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13 Comments

God knows why - Key

God knows why - Key Government does more for foreigners than its own people

Thats easy, its voting block

Thats easy, its voting block make the most money that way.
regards

After a surge in support to

After a surge in support to 44%, Prime Minister John Key’s National Party is "almost tied" with a potential Labour/ Greens Coalition (44.5%).
 
National's support is still trending down.
 
By Roy Morgan's next poll we may be able to see whether or not National's policies of focusing export growth to China have the country heading in the right direction.

Looking at all the polls for

Looking at all the polls for the past couple of months, it looks to me like the rate at which National's support is dropping could be slowing. Which would make viabble governments (on numbers)
National + Act (given a seat by National) + Conservative (given a seat by National) + Maori Party + New Zealand First 
or
Labour + Greens + New Zealand First
or either of the above as a minority government with New Zealand First pledging supply.
If National's support goes back to dropping at it's long term rate, then the only question is if Labour/Greens need New Zealand First.

Where would the conservatives

Where would the conservatives win a seat? I can understand ACT getting and holding one seat....but the fundie fruity loops?  I mean they want to add so much tax to wine it would be $90 a bottle. I can so see a right wing seat voting for christian nut jobs making their plonk a crazy price.
I thought NZF (Winston) hated the Greens btw? (Im sure the dislike is mutual) what strange bed fellows $s make.
Also I'd expect mana to get 1 to 2 seats. So Labour + Greens + Maori + Mana + Dunne, I can see this gang of 5 being OK.  Not sure that the voter in the centre will mind, you know the ones that decide the election, mana could frighten would be labour voters away.
regards

One guesses that the folk on

One guesses that the folk on Easter Island could see the number of trees dwindling, but they apparently voted to continue building confefence centres, sorry stadiums, sorry i really meant statues.
 
Not that either of the opposition have the answers, yet. They are more likely to get there than Nat, but they are hell-and-gone currently.
 
Wheres 'Wally, the National sleeper on Interest.co'? Bumble, bumble, bumble, election run up: Holler holler holler, election gone: bumble bumble bumble. I noticed a wee flare-up recently. Was that just a misfire, wally, or is there a snap election we should know about? or do you rev up for local ones too?

Easter island was I assume

Easter island was I assume simpler, you just count the trees in front of you.  I listen to ppl complaining on the cost of filling their tank, and when it drops are happy and expect it to drop further....so dont change a thing in their lives.  One said the other day no matter what the price of petrol I'll keep buying it because I live where I want to. I wonder where the breaking point is, $3 a litre?  $4 a litre?  so $100 a tank a week to $400 a month, how will $800 a month feel I wonder....blame the Govn tax of course, expect it to be removed. Next stage you are rationed to 2 tanks a month....?
Going to go down well....
regards

I wouldn't be concerned if

I wouldn't be concerned if the price of petrol and/or taxes increased as long as that money was spent improving our public transport system. In fact if the Minister realised that by building and improving a fast and reliable transport system from Welly as far as Palmy then you would see growth in that so called "dying" area of NZ. 
Interestingly enough the number of car sales in the Manawatu have soared.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/8814294/Car-registrations-...
 

.................People were

.................People were contacted via telephone !!!!
Was that a land line or cellphone?
I thought landline 'polls' had been shown to be biased towards the rightwing parties.
Something about 'poorer' people prefering cellphones as they're (way) cheaper than landlines, when used sparingly.
 
 

I would have thought older

I would have thought older people but amounts to the same bias. Nats have the Coro St vote in the bag. Two classic MSM fallacies:
sample size is unrelated to population size - 900 properly selected participants would be ggreat
margin of error is relevant to the expected result so 3-4% when the result is around 50%, margin goes down to point oh something if the expected result is 2%. In the case of United Future it would be #ERR DIV/0
 

The polls constantly showed

The polls constantly showed National 2 to 3 percent higher at the last election than they actually scored, so in N.Z. using them to gauge support is not very accurate (or you need to mentally subtract bait from all National's scores). But because each poll is taken in the same way, it is perfectly reasonable to look at the over time pattern of the same polls. The take home- National fairly clearly falling in 2012 not much happening this year, Greens fairly clearly falling in 2012 not much happening this year, Labour growing steadily 2012 and this year, everyone else will depend on having an electorate seat (though I personally think NZ First will be likely to be over the 5% threshold at the next election).

And the margin of error was?

And the margin of error was? (there were only 909 people in the survey).
 

Every one of them was a

Every one of them was a member of the National Party... !