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US factories grow; Argentina faces new default; China corporate debt explodes; China firm targets lamb supplies; NZ$1 = US$0.867, TWI = 80.7

US factories grow; Argentina faces new default; China corporate debt explodes; China firm targets lamb supplies; NZ$1 = US$0.867, TWI = 80.7

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of a big Chinese push into sheep meat supplies.

But first, there was good US manufacturing data out earlier today where the New York Fed said "business conditions improved significantly for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers". And home builders in the US reported improving conditions.

US industrial production improved +4.3% in May and the April data was revised higher, in data out by the US Fed today, reinforcing the growth trend.

Argentina has come to the end of the US legal road in its efforts to force bondholders who didn't agree to default terms to take a haircut. That risks sending Latin America's No 3 economy into a fresh sovereign default.

In Europe, Russia has cut off all gas supplied to the Ukraine and is now requiring advance payment to turn them back on. They are also amassing troops on the border in a show of 'strength'. Tensions aren't reducing there or in Iraq.

In China, their level of corporate debt is now the world's largest according to a new survey by Standard & Poor's. Chinese companies have now borrowed more than American ones. "With China’s economy likely to grow at a nominal 10% per year over the next five years, this amount can only increase,” the S&P analysts said.

In Australia, following supermarket giant Coles, rival Woolworths has quickly jumped deeper into financial services, by showering its shoppers with a range of credit cards and Visa as a new partner. I doubt New Zealand will be far behind now.

Also in Australia, Chinese lamb importer Grand Farm is reported to be seeking to buy up to $200 million of Western Australian sheep farms. Grand Farm has close relationships with New Zealand's lamb meat exporters and are reportedly on a $1 billion expansion - no doubt debt funded. With money like that and New Zealand's red meat sector unable to restructure itself, it would unsurprising if Grand Farm was currently looking closely at New Zealand 'opportunities'.

Overnight, benchmark UST 10 yr bond yields fell slightly to 2.60%. The oil price flirted with US$108/barrel but is now down to US$106. Gold also flirted with US$1,290/oz but is now back to yesterday's level in the mid $1,270's.

On the exchange rate the NZD starts today at about the same level it has been for the past four business days. It is at 86.7 USc, at 92.3 AUc and the TWI is at 80.7. 

If you want to catch up with all the changes from yesterday we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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6 Comments

How does it all the debt get paid back?

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Growth of course, have you not been paying attention?  The best bit is growth requires more debt.  Lets dig our way out!

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You know what they say, 'when in a hole, keep digging!'

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Yes....DC switched a while back to quoting wti, yet because you cant get WTI out of the USA cheaply/easily its price is supressed, unlike Brent.

No matter the thing to watch is the trend, its climbing despite the claims that mor eis available.

Look at Brent, just jumped massively,

http://www.oil-price.net/

Even if you ignore this spike as "unfounded" Iraqi fears look at the 1 and 5 yr trend and especially the 5y for WTI.

If iraq blows and we lose 2~3mpbd day, ouch.  As TBP says, $150~200 for oil?  $2.50NZ a litre? $3?  think that wont casue a global GFC mkII?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27815618

regards

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Yet Brent is looking like $113 and higher...

or maybe consider trends?

It looks like an awfully in-accurate and misleading comment.

http://www.oil-price.net/

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm

"North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $110/bbl in May, an increase of $2/bbl from April. This was the 11th consecutive month in which average Brent crude oil spot prices fell within a relatively narrow range of $107/bbl to $112/bbl."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/hpcl-…

"According to analysts, the violence could result in a sectarian civil war. As a result, oil supply from Iraq may get disrupted leading to sharp rise in global oil prices"

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/06/13/global-oil-dema…

This uncertainty comes as the IEA expects global oil demand, which affects both oil and gasoline prices, will rise from 91.4 million barrels per day in 2014's first quarter to 94 million during its last three months.

So less oil maybe, yet way more demand.

regards

   

 

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