A review of things you need to know before you go home Monday; services sector strong, dairy farms still popular, China data impresses, impulse problem, swaps slip, NZD steady, bitcoin thrashed

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

SERVICE SECTOR HUMMING
The big rebound in the May PSI continued into June.The latest strength is spread right across the detail. This includes another solid reading on employment (54.2), which was good considering the jobs index of June’s manufacturing PMI was something of a weak spot, even if it was an isolated one. The new orders/business index in June’s PSI was outstanding at 64.1, while activity/sales were humming along at 59.4. These are high levels.

DEMAND STILL NORMAL
Farm sales and prices held steady overall in June with dairy farm prices up. But there were big drops in sales of horticultural and lifestyle blocks, the REINZ says. Here is the regional detail.

A POWERHOUSE RESULT
China has released some impressive economic data today for June and the second quarter. According to official statistics, China's economy grew at a +6.9% rate which was slightly above expectations. And retail sales were up a very impressive +11%, also higher than what markets were anticipating, and was the highest since December 2015. The data released for industrial production was strong too.

CAN'T CONTROL IMPULSE BUYING
A new survey for a Kiwibank-owned mortgage broker has revealed Kiwi homeowners are largely unfazed about their ability to cope with mortgage rate rises, but they are continuing to find it difficult to curb spending on consumer items. Despite the view of interest rates will probably rise, there is concern about the respondents’ ability to curb spending. The biggest problem area for curbing spending is on unplanned spending on consumer items such as household electronics, tools and sports goods where 47% of respondents found difficulty controlling spending and secondly for services like household maintenance at 46%. Entertainment, such as concerts and movies and bad habits like cigarettes and alcohol are two other areas where respondents expressed difficulty in managing their spending.

TAX SYSTEM ENHANCEMENT
The Government is planning major changes to how IRD pays social support so that people can know better what their entitlements are and be sure of receiving the right amount. “The Working for Families system is very complex and has been since it was introduced. More than 40% of people receiving WfF are underpaid, while a quarter of all people get paid too much and end up owing money to Inland Revenue.

WHOLESALE RATES SLIP
Wholesale swap rates gave up the rises we saw on Friday. However, the 90 day bank bill rate is down again, by just -1 bp to 1.95%.

NZ DOLLAR STABLE
The Kiwi dollar rose strongly today, then turned back down, so we are bacl to where we started at 73.2 USc. On the cross rates we lower however, now trading now at 93.7 AUc and at 63.9 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 76.7. Bitcoin however has taken a real pounding, down -14.5% from this time Friday to US$1,995. That is a US$300 dropsince then and a US$1,000 drop in a month, wiping off a third of its peak value.

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4 Comments

Advertisers and the like will be SOOOO HAPPY that people can't control their impulses and keep buying stuff, that they need bigger houses for and storage units too. Leads to improved GDP, more jobs in retail, - I am sounding like a National politician in election year. AHHHHHH

No surprises in relation to impulse spending. Spending is more exciting than paying off debts.

Nothing to support my confirmation bias about an impending severe economic crash, most dissapointed in the lack of sensationalism. May opt to write a "strongly worded" and fairly loony letter to your chief editor in Crayon.

Bit surprised that household maintenance is considered a problem as we are often told we don't do enough of it. Or is that referring to maintenance services which most people can do themselves (albeit with varying degrees of success) such as lawn mowing, gardening, window washing oven cleaning etc ?