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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; two rate changes, truckometer loses momentum, inflation low even as retail demand solid, swaps unchanged, NZD firm

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; two rate changes, truckometer loses momentum, inflation low even as retail demand solid, swaps unchanged, NZD firm

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB sets its fighting rate at 4.35% for eighteen months fixed, the lowest of any bank for this term except HSBC Premier.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has trimmed -5 bps off its 12 month term deposit rate.

SHEDDING MOMENTUM
The ANZ Truckometer suggests the economy is shedding a bit of momentum, but that the growth engine hasn’t completely run out of fuel, they say. The Heavy Traffic Index fell -1.5% m/m in June, but annual growth has recovered over the June quarter. The Light Traffic Index lifted +0.7% m/m, but annual growth remains soft, suggesting the economy is navigating some headwinds.

NO PRICE PRESSURE YET
ANZ's monthly survey of inflation is pulling back as well. Inflationary pressures outside of housing have cooled. In annual terms, the Underlying Ex-housing Gauge has moderated from +1.2% year-on-year in February to just +0.6% currently.

BUYING MORE STUFF
Despite that, consumers used their electronic cards to pay for more stuff in June. Dollar volumes were up +4.4% compared to the +4.7% rise in the June 2017 data. Average transaction size picked up to $48.83. Core retail transactions were flat, but the $518 mln transacted in June was +3.5% more than in June 2017.

CHINA INFLATION REPORT
And talking of inflation, China said its June CPI rose by +1.9%, exactly as analysts predicted. It also said its PPI rose by +4.7% in the year to June, which was more than the +4.5% predicted and sharply more than the +4.1% rate in May.

MIXED TRADING
The Tokyo stock exchange is having another strong rise today, up more than +1%. But Hong Hong is more subdued (+0.8%) which Shanghai is actually unchanged. The ASX and NZX are both down another -0.3%. All this after Wall Street closed up about +1%.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Local swap rates are unchanged today again. The UST 10yr is now at 2.87%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.64, up +3 bps, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.56% (unchanged), and the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.88%, up +3 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.97%.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$6,658 which is almost unchanged from this time yesterday.

NZD HOLDS
The NZD is little-changed at 68.5 USc. On the cross rate we are at 91.7 AUc and 58.3 euro cents. That has the TWI-5 at 71.6.

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12 Comments

I got a call from my Kiwisaver provider's CEO today. I thought it was very nice of them, and told them so.

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Ah yes Simplicity .... a very nice gesture indeed =)

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I had Pepper Steak soup for lunch today. 6/10.

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To that end, for my lunch I had some sandwiches I made this morning. Edam cheese, cucumber, lettuce and cottage cheese. Cottage cheese is getting on my nerves, it just doesn't suit flavour-wise. I'd swap it for salami but I'm afraid of getting cancer.

Can anyone suggest any fillings to substitute for cottage cheese? Maybe I should try mashed hard boiled eggs...

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Maybe try potato salad or Coleslaw?

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I see where this went wrong. If you're going to double-cheese, don't pick two bland cheeses. Pick one bland plus one tasty. Maybe some hummus. If hummus gives you cancer it hasn't hit the media yet.

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Nice lunches today everyone,

I 'property/properly' mucked up and took the wrong sarnies out of the fridge this morning, so ended up with tomato and peanut butter.......no chance of Cancer with that I hope, but wasn't planning on anaphylactic shock for a colleague in the office who went on to spend an afternoon at hospital.... 'Not my fault,' I said to the officer, 'it's my bloody daughter who likes peanuts with tomatoes.... I wanted it to be cheese with tomato.'

Still here awaiting bail, but they let me keep the lap-top and the sandwiches.. no chance of promotion now and may be looking for a new job.....

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Peanut butter and gherkin for me.

No I am not pregnant.

They're good.

Shut up.

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I'm a big fan of pesto or chunky pesto dip.

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Interest rate cuts looming then?
Low inflation, fragile growth/spending/trucks ....

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Hopefully we get regulatory economic reforms this time around instead of further monetary easing. The reserve bank has done enough to free up capital for investments, but this almost exclusively flows into the unproductive assets for speculation.
We keep talking about productivity and innovation, however, in this country, a person is punished with taxes for putting retirement savings into capital market investments and rewarded with tax breaks for buying real estate.

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Apropos of nothing at all, but has anyone else noticed that Harmoney is pretty much not lending peer to peer anymore! in May I was lending about $100 per day and now I'm struggling to lend anything at all. wtf!

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