Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no rate changes to report today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.
AUCKLAND 'PARTICULARLY GRIM'
The National housing market has made a poor start to the new year with house prices and sales volumes in decline and the number of listings rising. The data for Auckland was noticeably weaker. But we must remember that this is January, a transition month. The real estate sale industry wants you to ignore this January. But a look back over the last seven years, you have to go back to 2010 when sales volumes in Auckland declined in all months from October to January compared with the same month a year earlier. And then for two years straight, the median Auckland house price was stuck at $455,000. "Don't panic; wait till March" the industry says via the REINZ.
NEW CHAIRMAN
The Credit Union's lead body, Co-op Money (but not Co-operative Bank) has a new chairman. Steve Nichols, who is the former Chief Executive of Payments NZ, is their new Independent Director and Chair. The previous chairperson, Claire Matthews is staying on as deputy chair. Henry Lynch is also unchanged as CEO.
BACK TO BILATERALS
New Zealand and Mexico are to explore a new bilateral trade deal. MFN clauses are being dusted off.
RBNZ TO PUSH AHEAD WITH DASHBOARD DISCLOSURE AFTER ADDRESSING CONCERNS
The Reserve Bank says it'll continue "engaging with stakeholders" on its proposed "dashboard" approach to quarterly bank disclosure. Having consulted on the proposal last year, the Reserve Bank today published a summary of submissions. It notes some submitters, notably bank lobby group the NZ Bankers' Association, raised issues about publication timing, control of the data published, data comparability and the proposed inclusion of short term liquidity metrics. “After carefully reviewing all feedback, the Reserve Bank considers that the concerns raised about the dashboard proposal should be able to be addressed, and the dashboard remains the Bank’s preferred option to enhance market discipline by increasing the effectiveness of the bank disclosure regime," Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Grant Spencer said.
A MILTI YEAR HIGH
Australian business conditions jumped to their highest in nearly a decade in January as firms reported a pick up in sales while profits steadied, pointing to solid economic growth after a soft patch late last year.
AU$45 BLN LOWER
The extent of the pullback in lending by Australian financial institutions can be seen in December data released today. Personal finance rose just +2.5% in 2016 from 2015. But commercial finance actually fell by -8.6% in the same period. Overall lending was down from A$630 bln in 2015 to $585 bln, a AU$45 bln or -7.2% drop.
A NOT-SO-BIG AUSSIE COUSIN
The number of tourists visiting Australia in 2016 rose +11% to 8.3 mln. While that is a lot, it shows how well New Zealand is doing in the tourism stakes. We had 3.5 mln, growing +11.8%. That puts us at over 42% of the Aussie level, not bad for a country with -80% less population and -96% less land area.
WHOLESALE RATES INCH UP
Today we have seen a small rise in wholesale swap rates, and a slight steepening. The two year is up +1 bp while the five year is up +2 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged today at 2.03%.
NZ DOLLAR GOING NOWHERE
There is little to note on the currency front as well (and apologies for our live feed being down today, due to a server upgrade). Against the US dollar we are almost unchanged on the day at 71.7 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.6 AUc, and at 67.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is still at 77.3. Check our real-time charts here.
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Daily exchange rates
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5 Comments
Grim Housing Data? No. The grim housing data is in the numbers of salaried and waged who now can't afford the independence and security of owning their own homes. There's plenty of grim data in the numbers suffering rental exploitation. The grimmest data is in the numbers of New Zealanders who are homeless. Such are the direct responsibilities of those who have chased their prosperity via asset inflation in property investment and/or speculation. And here too there's direct political responsibility.
M13 data also out today . Inflation expectations going nowhere. Numbers expecting continued house price increases slumping . Those expecting prices to fall now 29 percent up from 12 percent 3 quarters ago. Data taken around November. Housing is all about confidence.
TJ, from quite a while ago most of the traditional fourth estate have been burdened with a bias that makes their purchase a waste. In the case of the physical Herald even my worm farm has started turning its nose up at it, I suspect the ink is now sourced differently from the past.
The load has been largely taken up by the fifth estate, sources such as this web site for example but investigative reporting has been a casualty with this evolution.
In summary the Herald will continue cheer leading the RE Industry, housing, National, immigration until they see the writing clearly on the wall and then there will be a complete about face.
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