Currencies
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
Paola Subacchi cautions against the incoming Argentine leader's pledge to establish the US greenback as the sole legal tender
30th Nov 23, 3:53pm
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Paola Subacchi cautions against the incoming Argentine leader's pledge to establish the US greenback as the sole legal tender
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
29th Nov 23, 8:06am
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US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
The Reserve Bank has added a further NZ$739 million to its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' in the past month and now has nearly NZ$18.5 billion held in offshore currencies to intervene if needed in foreign exchange markets
28th Nov 23, 3:55pm
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The Reserve Bank has added a further NZ$739 million to its 'foreign currency intervention capacity' in the past month and now has nearly NZ$18.5 billion held in offshore currencies to intervene if needed in foreign exchange markets
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
28th Nov 23, 8:20am
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
27th Nov 23, 9:01am
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
27th Nov 23, 7:32am
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
24th Nov 23, 7:50am
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
24th Nov 23, 7:46am
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
23rd Nov 23, 8:13am
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
23rd Nov 23, 7:47am
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US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
22nd Nov 23, 7:53am
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
21st Nov 23, 7:51am
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Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
20th Nov 23, 9:19am
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
20th Nov 23, 7:28am
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Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
Ari Juels and Eswar Prasad look beyond the crypto industry's rampant fraud to a future of blockchain-enabled financial transparency
19th Nov 23, 9:32am
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Ari Juels and Eswar Prasad look beyond the crypto industry's rampant fraud to a future of blockchain-enabled financial transparency
RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity likely to grow significantly, Westpac NZ's Kelly Eckhold says
19th Nov 23, 6:00am
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RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity likely to grow significantly, Westpac NZ's Kelly Eckhold says
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
17th Nov 23, 7:43am
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
16th Nov 23, 7:54am
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US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
