Stuart Talman

Long-dated US treasury yields continue eye-watering ascent, 10-yr closes near 4.50%. US equity markets higher, logging best week since November 2023

Long-dated US treasury yields continue eye-watering ascent, 10-yr closes near 4.50%. US equity markets higher, logging best week since November 2023

Markets dismiss latest US tariff announcements in sign of tariff fatigue. Market impact contained to auto & transport stocks. Currencies, commodities, bond rates stay within tight ranges

Markets dismiss latest US tariff announcements in sign of tariff fatigue. Market impact contained to auto & transport stocks. Currencies, commodities, bond rates stay within tight ranges

Dovish FOMC reaction fades, DXY probing top of recent range. Trump comments on tariff flexibility. Greer to speak with China this week. Market to trade in a holding pattern ahead of April 2 tariff announcement

Dovish FOMC reaction fades, DXY probing top of recent range. Trump comments on tariff flexibility. Greer to speak with China this week. Market to trade in a holding pattern ahead of April 2 tariff announcement

US producer prices data stable but PCE inputs suggest a higher PCE release. Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French alcohol beverage exports. Risk assets resume their slide, US equity sell-off looking uglier by the day

US producer prices data stable but PCE inputs suggest a higher PCE release. Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French alcohol beverage exports. Risk assets resume their slide, US equity sell-off looking uglier by the day

Markets await US tariff rollout. Euro initially stronger on German election result before handing back gains. Domestic NZ retail sales logs largest QoQ gain in three years

Markets await US tariff rollout. Euro initially stronger on German election result before handing back gains. Domestic NZ retail sales logs largest QoQ gain in three years

RBNZ delivers as expected, 3rd straight 50-bps cut; terminal rate brought forward. UK CPI runs hotter than expected. USD pullback appears to have halted as market awaits next key directional catalyst

RBNZ delivers as expected, 3rd straight 50-bps cut; terminal rate brought forward. UK CPI runs hotter than expected. USD pullback appears to have halted as market awaits next key directional catalyst

US PMIs impressive; US equities, oil and gold all rise, UST yields dip. EU & UK PMIs underwhelm. Eurozone services PMI contractionary for first time in 11 mths

US PMIs impressive; US equities, oil and gold all rise, UST yields dip. EU & UK PMIs underwhelm. Eurozone services PMI contractionary for first time in 11 mths

US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up

US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up

US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves

US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves

Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps

Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps

Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher

Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher

Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024

Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024

September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update

September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update

US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting

US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting

NZD rips through 62 US cents to mark 8 month highs a few pips shy of 62.4 USc. Powell delivers dovish Jackson Hole address, acknowledges labour market softness

NZD rips through 62 US cents to mark 8 month highs a few pips shy of 62.4 USc. Powell delivers dovish Jackson Hole address, acknowledges labour market softness

Impressive risk rally: S&P500, Nasdaq log best weeks since October. Yields down, crude oil down, gold up, USD down

Impressive risk rally: S&P500, Nasdaq log best weeks since October. Yields down, crude oil down, gold up, USD down

July US CPI prints in-line, headline falls below 3% for first time since March 2021. A September Fed cut locked in; question remains 25bps or 50bps? A busy day ahead: JP & UK GDP, China activity data Aussie jobs, US retail sales

July US CPI prints in-line, headline falls below 3% for first time since March 2021. A September Fed cut locked in; question remains 25bps or 50bps? A busy day ahead: JP & UK GDP, China activity data Aussie jobs, US retail sales

PBoC easing, delivers surprise cuts to both 7-day repo rate and 1 & 5 yr. LPRs. Yuan likely to remain under pressure in short-term, another NZD headwind

PBoC easing, delivers surprise cuts to both 7-day repo rate and 1 & 5 yr. LPRs. Yuan likely to remain under pressure in short-term, another NZD headwind

US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%

US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%

French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI

French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI

US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience

US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience

French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed

French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed

S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election

S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election

Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting

Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting

Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data

Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data