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Stuart Talman
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Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
Despite Powell kiboshing March cut, yields continue to fall, dollar reverses. Eurozone core inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.3%; headline remains sub-3%. Bank of England delivers hawkish hold; odds of May cut fall below 50%
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
Equities down, yields down, crude down, gold up, US dollar down following soft ADP and ECI data. Australian CPI falls
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
Equities up, yields down, crude down, gold down, US dollar mixed. FOMC, TFA, tech earnings, US jobs data may set the tone for remainder of 1Q
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
US PCE in-line; market pricing a 50/50 split for the 20 March FOMC meeting. Rates markets currently project 5-6 cuts vs the Fed's median dot plot of 3
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut
US GDP on fire, 4Q economic growth at 3.3%, easily beating 2% consensus. US consumer continues to spend amidst; blessed with immaculate disinflation? ECB maintains 4% deposit rate, still not considering timing of rate cut
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
Fed's Bostic joins Waller: Fed rate cuts likely to commence in early 2H-24. ECB minutes and GC member speeches push back against market pricing. Aussie jobs numbers deliver large downside miss on headline growth
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
US PPI, softer than expected, yields and dollar softer in early US trade. Risk mood sours through US trade following US/UK Middle East offensives. Range trading prevails, market awaits further data to aid central bank rate cut calls
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
US December CPI stronger than expected with core inflation at 3.9%, headline 3.4%. Immediate reaction: risk assets sell-off, 10-yr yield ascends back through 4%. Losses pared through second half of US trade implying CPI beat expected
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
US 10-yr yield reclaims territory above 4% as dovish outlook reconsidered. Australian monthly CPI falls from 4.9% to 4.3%; RBA to remain on hold in February
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
US yields & the dollar spike higher on Fed's Williams comments, then reverse. Eurozone PMIs softer-than-expected, EUR worst performer amongst the G10
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
US treasury yield & the dollar retreat continues; 10-year yield sub-4%. Fed's surprising dovish pivot could usher in prolonged dollar weakness. BoE/ECB deliver no change. Strong Aussie jobs growth & record participation rate; RBA not done?
Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
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Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
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US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
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Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction
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Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction