Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says NZ, Aussie and US interest rates are set to converge to the same level, while US markets underestimate the disinflationary impulse underway

Roger J Kerr says NZ, Aussie and US interest rates are set to converge to the same level, while US markets underestimate the disinflationary impulse underway

Roger J Kerr says the prolonged period of NZ dollar weakness has given a major boost to our export sector with substantially higher export commodity prices. "We will now see NZD appreciation in its own right, returning all the currency cross-rates higher"

Roger J Kerr says the prolonged period of NZ dollar weakness has given a major boost to our export sector with substantially higher export commodity prices. "We will now see NZD appreciation in its own right, returning all the currency cross-rates higher"

Roger J Kerr assesses what the relative performances of the NZ and AU economies mean for the NZD/AUD cross-rate. And he notes financial markets start to rethink the Fed’s next move with interest rates

Roger J Kerr assesses what the relative performances of the NZ and AU economies mean for the NZD/AUD cross-rate. And he notes financial markets start to rethink the Fed’s next move with interest rates

Roger J Kerr has two good reasons as to why the FX markets, in buying up the USD, have misread the Fed. He also sees the Aussie dollar pulling back, but retaining its yield advantage

Roger J Kerr has two good reasons as to why the FX markets, in buying up the USD, have misread the Fed. He also sees the Aussie dollar pulling back, but retaining its yield advantage

Roger J Kerr sees a hawkish Kevin Warsh but one who kicks the can on Fed reforms. He also sees a local economy doing better than most realise

Roger J Kerr sees a hawkish Kevin Warsh but one who kicks the can on Fed reforms. He also sees a local economy doing better than most realise

Roger J Kerr sees the pullback in the Aussie dollar as a healthy market flush-out. And he is watching what the markets will be telling Kevin Warsh at his first US Fed meeting

Roger J Kerr sees the pullback in the Aussie dollar as a healthy market flush-out. And he is watching what the markets will be telling Kevin Warsh at his first US Fed meeting

Roger J Kerr says oil price movements likely to outweigh US economic data as a determinant for NZD/USD rate direction

Roger J Kerr says oil price movements likely to outweigh US economic data as a determinant for NZD/USD rate direction

Roger J Kerr sees a growing probability that the NZD will rise to 'well above 60 USc'. As oil prices fall away (in USD), the cost in NZD will fall faster. He also sees a new era of transparency and accountability at the RBNZ

Roger J Kerr sees a growing probability that the NZD will rise to 'well above 60 USc'. As oil prices fall away (in USD), the cost in NZD will fall faster. He also sees a new era of transparency and accountability at the RBNZ

Roger J Kerr has 12 factors likely to influence the near-term Kiwi dollar direction

Roger J Kerr has 12 factors likely to influence the near-term Kiwi dollar direction

Roger J Kerr is watching global financial markets starting to capitulate as they see rising downsides from Trump's policies & actions. Locally he thinks the negative views of our economy are overblown

Roger J Kerr is watching global financial markets starting to capitulate as they see rising downsides from Trump's policies & actions. Locally he thinks the negative views of our economy are overblown

Roger J Kerr sees a return to underlying economic fundamentals and changing interest rate differentials as reasons to buy or sell any particular currency, likely to boost the NZD

Roger J Kerr sees a return to underlying economic fundamentals and changing interest rate differentials as reasons to buy or sell any particular currency, likely to boost the NZD

Roger J Kerr says watch the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar for signals about how our currency will move. But the US signals are too confusing at present to make much sense out of

Roger J Kerr says watch the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar for signals about how our currency will move. But the US signals are too confusing at present to make much sense out of

Roger J Kerr says a “quick end to the war” scenario appears more likely than alternatives. And he thinks that capital inflows to New Zealand might start exceeding outflows, positive for the NZD

Roger J Kerr says a “quick end to the war” scenario appears more likely than alternatives. And he thinks that capital inflows to New Zealand might start exceeding outflows, positive for the NZD

Roger J Kerr looks at the fast-changing influences on currencies and the shifting influences on the US Federal Reserve's FOMC

Roger J Kerr looks at the fast-changing influences on currencies and the shifting influences on the US Federal Reserve's FOMC

Roger J Kerr asks how and when might the NZD/AUD cross-rate turn, after the RBNZ’s “hawkish hold” is positive for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr asks how and when might the NZD/AUD cross-rate turn, after the RBNZ’s “hawkish hold” is positive for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair