About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says it appears that the speculative buying of the Kiwi dollar, that has dominated the local forex market recently, has run out of some steam
4th Apr 22, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says it appears that the speculative buying of the Kiwi dollar, that has dominated the local forex market recently, has run out of some steam
Roger J Kerr says the high level of short-sold Australian dollar speculative positions is now proving a benefit to that currency as the unwinding of them is forcing the Aussie dollar up
28th Mar 22, 8:13am
Roger J Kerr says the high level of short-sold Australian dollar speculative positions is now proving a benefit to that currency as the unwinding of them is forcing the Aussie dollar up
Roger J Kerr says two of the required four pre-conditions for the New Zealand dollar to appreciate over the next 12 months are already in place
21st Mar 22, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr says two of the required four pre-conditions for the New Zealand dollar to appreciate over the next 12 months are already in place
Roger J Kerr says NZ exporters should not be complacent abut the financial risk of the Kiwi dollar appreciating against all currencies from current levels
14th Mar 22, 7:58am
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Roger J Kerr says NZ exporters should not be complacent abut the financial risk of the Kiwi dollar appreciating against all currencies from current levels
Roger J Kerr says further NZ dollar gains against the Euro appear likely if the Russian invasion continues and expands
7th Mar 22, 8:43am
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Roger J Kerr says further NZ dollar gains against the Euro appear likely if the Russian invasion continues and expands
Roger J Kerr says so far, it appears the NZ dollar may have weathered 'Putin’s War', the Russian invasion of the Ukraine storm that hit financial and investment markets last week
28th Feb 22, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr says so far, it appears the NZ dollar may have weathered 'Putin’s War', the Russian invasion of the Ukraine storm that hit financial and investment markets last week
Roger J Kerr says it appears that the RBNZ will need to be more aggressive on their monetary tightening intentions than the markets are expecting in order to cause a more significant and permanent NZD appreciation
21st Feb 22, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says it appears that the RBNZ will need to be more aggressive on their monetary tightening intentions than the markets are expecting in order to cause a more significant and permanent NZD appreciation
Roger J Kerr says for the average, low-income household in New Zealand continuing rising costs 'is of much greater concern and impact than the mild Omicron strain'
14th Feb 22, 8:01am
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Roger J Kerr says for the average, low-income household in New Zealand continuing rising costs 'is of much greater concern and impact than the mild Omicron strain'
Roger J Kerr reckons the RBNZ's monetary tightening inflation objectives haven't worked out too well in their first four months, and they may need to bring out a bigger stick at their February review
7th Feb 22, 8:43am
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Roger J Kerr reckons the RBNZ's monetary tightening inflation objectives haven't worked out too well in their first four months, and they may need to bring out a bigger stick at their February review
More aggressive tightening of monetary policy from the Fed, a change of policy from the RBA, and a more general loss of confidence locally has the NZD lagging badly
31st Jan 22, 8:15am
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More aggressive tightening of monetary policy from the Fed, a change of policy from the RBA, and a more general loss of confidence locally has the NZD lagging badly
Roger J Kerr explains why the NZD is falling against the AUD and why this might have some way to go yet, over coming weeks
24th Jan 22, 8:06am
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Roger J Kerr explains why the NZD is falling against the AUD and why this might have some way to go yet, over coming weeks
Roger J Kerr says business confidence is falling because of the fear of re-imposed lockdowns as Omicron approaches. But he sees the NZD & AUD rising on USD weakness. Still, a tougher 2022 is on the cards, he says
17th Jan 22, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr says business confidence is falling because of the fear of re-imposed lockdowns as Omicron approaches. But he sees the NZD & AUD rising on USD weakness. Still, a tougher 2022 is on the cards, he says
In his first column for 2022, Roger J Kerr assesses the three major forces driving the relative value of the NZD, and how they are likely to play out in the new year
10th Jan 22, 8:52am
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In his first column for 2022, Roger J Kerr assesses the three major forces driving the relative value of the NZD, and how they are likely to play out in the new year
In his final column for 2021, Roger J Kerr summarises the forces that are expected to propel the Aussie dollar higher in 2022 and the Kiwi dollar with it
20th Dec 21, 8:40am
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In his final column for 2021, Roger J Kerr summarises the forces that are expected to propel the Aussie dollar higher in 2022 and the Kiwi dollar with it
Roger J Kerr says If the RBNZ were doing their job properly they would be putting considerable resources into lobbying, challenging and threatening the Govt of the day on the policies that are at the source of the consistently high non-tradable inflation
13th Dec 21, 8:25am
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Roger J Kerr says If the RBNZ were doing their job properly they would be putting considerable resources into lobbying, challenging and threatening the Govt of the day on the policies that are at the source of the consistently high non-tradable inflation
Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of selling has more to do with the Kiwi dollar closely following the Aussie dollar in the currency markets - and the AUD has been slammed down
6th Dec 21, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of selling has more to do with the Kiwi dollar closely following the Aussie dollar in the currency markets - and the AUD has been slammed down
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ stance and rhetoric in its Monetary Policy Statement last week was sufficiently circumspect to force the currency market punters to sell out of their long-NZD positions
29th Nov 21, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ stance and rhetoric in its Monetary Policy Statement last week was sufficiently circumspect to force the currency market punters to sell out of their long-NZD positions
Roger J Kerr examines who the likely buyers of New Zealand currency will be over coming months and says there are sufficient positive forces to suggest the Kiwi dollar will appreciate in coming years
22nd Nov 21, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr examines who the likely buyers of New Zealand currency will be over coming months and says there are sufficient positive forces to suggest the Kiwi dollar will appreciate in coming years
Roger J Kerr says RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr should now 'fess up, grow some gonads and tell the Government and the interest rate markets where to go!'
15th Nov 21, 7:54am
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Roger J Kerr says RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr should now 'fess up, grow some gonads and tell the Government and the interest rate markets where to go!'
Roger J Kerr says the probability of the 'doomsday' scenario for the New Zealand economy in 2022 has arguably gone up a notch
8th Nov 21, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says the probability of the 'doomsday' scenario for the New Zealand economy in 2022 has arguably gone up a notch
Roger J Kerr: 'The implications for the economy and personal wellbeing are becoming increasingly apparent. We are still up sh*t creek without a paddle!'
1st Nov 21, 8:03am
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Roger J Kerr: 'The implications for the economy and personal wellbeing are becoming increasingly apparent. We are still up sh*t creek without a paddle!'
Roger J Kerr sees the future direction of the NZ dollar value as governed by varying doses of good luck and good management
25th Oct 21, 9:23am
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Roger J Kerr sees the future direction of the NZ dollar value as governed by varying doses of good luck and good management
Roger J Kerr says the Government’s previous “smug complacency” has found us out with our pants down
18th Oct 21, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the Government’s previous “smug complacency” has found us out with our pants down
Roger J Kerr says the currency markets are signalling that the performance of the NZ economy over the next 12 months is likely to be inferior to peers and competitors
11th Oct 21, 7:56am
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Roger J Kerr says the currency markets are signalling that the performance of the NZ economy over the next 12 months is likely to be inferior to peers and competitors
Roger J Kerr sees a day of reckoning and crunch-time ahead for the Kiwi dollar