About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says the important thing from the RBNZ's October 6 rates review will be how the RBNZ sees the NZ economy extracting itself from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus it has been supported by over the last 18 months
27th Sep 21, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the important thing from the RBNZ's October 6 rates review will be how the RBNZ sees the NZ economy extracting itself from the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus it has been supported by over the last 18 months
Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets seem to be taking the view that the historical GDP growth numbers are questionable and the risks ahead for the NZ economy outweigh any positive past performance
20th Sep 21, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets seem to be taking the view that the historical GDP growth numbers are questionable and the risks ahead for the NZ economy outweigh any positive past performance
Roger J Kerr tackles the nitty gritty on our current handling of the Covid pandemic, the direction of the economy and what it all means for the future value of the NZ dollar
13th Sep 21, 8:19am
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Roger J Kerr tackles the nitty gritty on our current handling of the Covid pandemic, the direction of the economy and what it all means for the future value of the NZ dollar
Roger J Kerr says our currency seems to have 'zoomed' up too far and too fast, so, a fall seems likely in coming days
6th Sep 21, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says our currency seems to have 'zoomed' up too far and too fast, so, a fall seems likely in coming days
Roger J Kerr suggests John Key and Bill English would have done a better job of managing the current Covid crisis
30th Aug 21, 9:25am
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Roger J Kerr suggests John Key and Bill English would have done a better job of managing the current Covid crisis
Roger J Kerr sees a likely 'sideways shuffle' in the value of the Kiwi dollar and then rising back above US70c in the medium to longer term
23rd Aug 21, 7:59am
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Roger J Kerr sees a likely 'sideways shuffle' in the value of the Kiwi dollar and then rising back above US70c in the medium to longer term
Roger J Kerr says the 'reconnecting to the world' plan announced last week had no targets, no milestones and no objectives that business folk could plan around themselves
16th Aug 21, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr says the 'reconnecting to the world' plan announced last week had no targets, no milestones and no objectives that business folk could plan around themselves
Roger J Kerr says the stronger US dollar he has consistently expected is now back on track
9th Aug 21, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the stronger US dollar he has consistently expected is now back on track
Roger J Kerr says 'there is no question' global FX markets are differentiating between economies that are highly Covid-vaccinated and those that are not
2nd Aug 21, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says 'there is no question' global FX markets are differentiating between economies that are highly Covid-vaccinated and those that are not
Roger J Kerr says the rapid spread of the delta strain has suddenly overshadowed any expectations that the RBNZ will act to tighten monetary policy and increase the OCR at their upcoming meeting on 18 August
26th Jul 21, 8:53am
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Roger J Kerr says the rapid spread of the delta strain has suddenly overshadowed any expectations that the RBNZ will act to tighten monetary policy and increase the OCR at their upcoming meeting on 18 August
Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD
19th Jul 21, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr doesn't see an August OCR hike, seeing stresses building in our regional economies with no overheating, and speculators ready to bet that the NZD is too high especially against the AUD
Roger J Kerr says New Zealand will not achieve the 4% to 5% growth the RBNZ and all the banks are forecasting; says it would be a mistake of RBNZ to 'bow' to NZ economists' thinking
12th Jul 21, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says New Zealand will not achieve the 4% to 5% growth the RBNZ and all the banks are forecasting; says it would be a mistake of RBNZ to 'bow' to NZ economists' thinking
Roger J Kerr says there are just too many constraints on the NZ economy at this time to produce the higher GDP growth trajectory this year that the RBNZ and the banks are forecasting
5th Jul 21, 8:50am
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Roger J Kerr says there are just too many constraints on the NZ economy at this time to produce the higher GDP growth trajectory this year that the RBNZ and the banks are forecasting
Roger J Kerr says our slow vaccination rollout means we are going to be a long way behind the rest of the world in becoming fully functional again with international business and tourism travel and our economy will lag
28th Jun 21, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says our slow vaccination rollout means we are going to be a long way behind the rest of the world in becoming fully functional again with international business and tourism travel and our economy will lag
Roger J Kerr says the currency market landscape has dramatically changed in the past week
21st Jun 21, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr says the currency market landscape has dramatically changed in the past week
Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has seemingly broken out of its shackles of recent weeks
14th Jun 21, 8:19am
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Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has seemingly broken out of its shackles of recent weeks
The speed of the US economic recovery slower than what financial markets expected, says Roger J Kerr. But the expected strength will come, and force the Fed's hand to raise interest rates and therefore the USD
7th Jun 21, 7:43am
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The speed of the US economic recovery slower than what financial markets expected, says Roger J Kerr. But the expected strength will come, and force the Fed's hand to raise interest rates and therefore the USD
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank has made 'heroic' assumptions about the strength of NZ GDP growth and has failed to address potential risks
31st May 21, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank has made 'heroic' assumptions about the strength of NZ GDP growth and has failed to address potential risks
Roger J Kerr says the Labour Government are implementing their ideological programmes without any real understanding of the drivers at the coalface of the economy
24th May 21, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the Labour Government are implementing their ideological programmes without any real understanding of the drivers at the coalface of the economy
Roger J Kerr, who says the Robertson 'wellbeing' Budget will be all about re-distributing the pie rather than growing the pie, offers his thoughts about what should be in the Budget
17th May 21, 8:57am
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Roger J Kerr, who says the Robertson 'wellbeing' Budget will be all about re-distributing the pie rather than growing the pie, offers his thoughts about what should be in the Budget
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of handbrakes adversely impacting on the NZ economy
10th May 21, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says there are a number of handbrakes adversely impacting on the NZ economy
Roger J Kerr says the March slide in the Kiwi dollar is shaping up to be repeated if the US dollar returns to its appreciating trend on the back of stronger US economic data and rising long-term US interest rates
3rd May 21, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says the March slide in the Kiwi dollar is shaping up to be repeated if the US dollar returns to its appreciating trend on the back of stronger US economic data and rising long-term US interest rates
Roger J Kerr points out where the US dollar is heading, seeing a stronger period ahead. He also sees cracks appearing in overstretched speculative markets
26th Apr 21, 8:36am
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Roger J Kerr points out where the US dollar is heading, seeing a stronger period ahead. He also sees cracks appearing in overstretched speculative markets
Roger J Kerr says the contrast between the current US and New Zealand economic trends is stark, worrying and negative for the NZ dollar
19th Apr 21, 8:45am
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Roger J Kerr says the contrast between the current US and New Zealand economic trends is stark, worrying and negative for the NZ dollar
Roger J Kerr says the Government will struggle to understand the current deteriorating economic situation, let alone devise new policies to improve the economy’s performance
12th Apr 21, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says the Government will struggle to understand the current deteriorating economic situation, let alone devise new policies to improve the economy’s performance