About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says as the halo has signs of starting to slip off PM Jacinda Ardern’s head, the Kiwi dollar is also now slipping in value in the unforgiving theatre of global currency markets
6th Apr 21, 7:59am
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Roger J Kerr says as the halo has signs of starting to slip off PM Jacinda Ardern’s head, the Kiwi dollar is also now slipping in value in the unforgiving theatre of global currency markets
Roger J Kerr says the Govt's 'draconian' tax change around housing has 'dramatically eliminated' the prospect of New Zealand's monetary stimulus being unwound ahead of Australia
29th Mar 21, 8:34am
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Roger J Kerr says the Govt's 'draconian' tax change around housing has 'dramatically eliminated' the prospect of New Zealand's monetary stimulus being unwound ahead of Australia
Roger J Kerr says the Government's purported 'shovel ready' projects to replace the loss of activity in the tourism sector have not happened and don't look like happening any time soon
22nd Mar 21, 8:44am
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Roger J Kerr says the Government's purported 'shovel ready' projects to replace the loss of activity in the tourism sector have not happened and don't look like happening any time soon
Roger J Kerr says the Aussie Government is decisive while our Government makes announcements about future announcements; an NZ win in the America's Cup won't necessarily spark a Kiwi dollar rally
15th Mar 21, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr says the Aussie Government is decisive while our Government makes announcements about future announcements; an NZ win in the America's Cup won't necessarily spark a Kiwi dollar rally
Roger J Kerr says forex investors and traders are focused on the US dollar and not keen to buy the NZ currency at such high levels
8th Mar 21, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says forex investors and traders are focused on the US dollar and not keen to buy the NZ currency at such high levels
Roger J Kerr says the probability of a weaker NZ dollar has surged as US equity markets start to fall and long-term interest rates continue to climb
1st Mar 21, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says the probability of a weaker NZ dollar has surged as US equity markets start to fall and long-term interest rates continue to climb
Roger J Kerr says a more 'dovish' than expected statement from our central bank later this week will drive the Kiwi dollar sharply lower
22nd Feb 21, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says a more 'dovish' than expected statement from our central bank later this week will drive the Kiwi dollar sharply lower
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Statement next stands out as a likely candidate to break the Kiwi dollar’s shackles
15th Feb 21, 7:58am
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Statement next stands out as a likely candidate to break the Kiwi dollar’s shackles
Roger J Kerr says those expecting the RBNZ to be more upbeat will be disappointed even though the string of good economic data extends. Those shorting the USD may be in for a nasty surprise
8th Feb 21, 11:02am
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Roger J Kerr says those expecting the RBNZ to be more upbeat will be disappointed even though the string of good economic data extends. Those shorting the USD may be in for a nasty surprise
Roger J Kerr sees the NZD dropping below 70 USc over the next six months after the US delivers much stronger data and vaccine beneits start to flow. He also sees the NZD falling as the AUD takes an iron ore price hit
1st Feb 21, 8:34am
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Roger J Kerr sees the NZD dropping below 70 USc over the next six months after the US delivers much stronger data and vaccine beneits start to flow. He also sees the NZD falling as the AUD takes an iron ore price hit
Roger J Kerr says RBNZ economic forecasting gurus need to spend more time talking to businesses at the coal-front of the economy and less time on the theory of calibrating their econometric models to what is happening in the rest of the world
25th Jan 21, 8:12am
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Roger J Kerr says RBNZ economic forecasting gurus need to spend more time talking to businesses at the coal-front of the economy and less time on the theory of calibrating their econometric models to what is happening in the rest of the world
Roger J Kerr says market conditions and incentives have shifted in favour of the American currency
18th Jan 21, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says market conditions and incentives have shifted in favour of the American currency
Roger J Kerr says positives fuelling equity markets ruled out any downward NZD correction so far, other financial market signals are mixed, and the local economic outlook is dimming
11th Jan 21, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says positives fuelling equity markets ruled out any downward NZD correction so far, other financial market signals are mixed, and the local economic outlook is dimming
Roger J Kerr looks at some of the candidates that might cause a downward correction for the NZ dollar
14th Dec 20, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr looks at some of the candidates that might cause a downward correction for the NZ dollar
Long time Kiwi dollar bull Roger J Kerr concludes that our currency has now overcooked itself at current levels
7th Dec 20, 8:30am
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Long time Kiwi dollar bull Roger J Kerr concludes that our currency has now overcooked itself at current levels
Roger J Kerr reflects on the positives and negatives for New Zealand during a most tumultuous year
30th Nov 20, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr reflects on the positives and negatives for New Zealand during a most tumultuous year
Roger J Kerr says the probability of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr making a special statement to jawbone the NZD down overtly and deliberately over the next few weeks has gone up several notches
23rd Nov 20, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr says the probability of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr making a special statement to jawbone the NZD down overtly and deliberately over the next few weeks has gone up several notches
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are already past that point of no return with too much stimulus for the current and future economic conditions
16th Nov 20, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are already past that point of no return with too much stimulus for the current and future economic conditions
Roger J Kerr says any NZ dollar sell-off as a result of Reserve Bank currency jawboning this week will again be very short-lived and not sustainable against the more positive wider forces
9th Nov 20, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says any NZ dollar sell-off as a result of Reserve Bank currency jawboning this week will again be very short-lived and not sustainable against the more positive wider forces
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ appear to be assuming that exporters are not hedged and thus a higher currency vale will hinder our economic recovery
2nd Nov 20, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ appear to be assuming that exporters are not hedged and thus a higher currency vale will hinder our economic recovery
The New Zealand currency has made good gains since the election, especially against the AUD. Now Roger J Kerr is expecting the RBNZ to face up to their excessively negative forecasting
26th Oct 20, 8:59am
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The New Zealand currency has made good gains since the election, especially against the AUD. Now Roger J Kerr is expecting the RBNZ to face up to their excessively negative forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the stunning New Zealand election result which sees the Labour Party assume ultimate power has removed one risk that could have pushed the NZ dollar lower in the short-term
19th Oct 20, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the stunning New Zealand election result which sees the Labour Party assume ultimate power has removed one risk that could have pushed the NZ dollar lower in the short-term
Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets are not showing any great nervousness ahead of the election
12th Oct 20, 8:51am
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Roger J Kerr says the foreign exchange markets are not showing any great nervousness ahead of the election
Roger J Kerr says we are in for a wild and volatile ride over coming weeks as the markets attempt to fathom out what all this means for the Presidential election
5th Oct 20, 8:41am
Roger J Kerr says we are in for a wild and volatile ride over coming weeks as the markets attempt to fathom out what all this means for the Presidential election
Roger J Kerr says it was not just one factor that sparked the Kiwi dollar turnaround in direction of travel, but an amalgamation of events occurring at the same time
28th Sep 20, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says it was not just one factor that sparked the Kiwi dollar turnaround in direction of travel, but an amalgamation of events occurring at the same time