About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
12
Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
32
Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
19
Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
27
Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
2
Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
19
Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
9
Roger J Kerr says the markets are potentially under-estimating how quickly inflation could reduce over the second half of the year and, in turn, prompt central banks to ease their foot off the tight monetary policy brake a lot sooner than most imagined
Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
10
Roger J Kerr says instead of harking for an independent enquiry into past RBNZ past decisions, our energy and intellectual horsepower is better off addressing changes we could make that result in us being less vulnerable to boom/bust cycles
Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
4
Roger J Kerr says the reversal in US bond yields is telling us that the sentiment and expectations from both bond investors and borrowers is that they see lower inflation and lower interest rates in the future
Roger J Kerr says US inflation has not quite peaked yet, but the peak is not far away
Roger J Kerr asks: Why would the NZ dollar be on the same footing as the Japanese Yen?
Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
35
Roger J Kerr says just why New Zealand would be taking up such an aggressive foreign policy stance against our largest export/import trading partner, China, beggars belief
Roger J Kerr says some cracks are starting to appear in the 'mighty US dollar' story
Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
10
Roger J Kerr says the Fed appear to be unbelievably slow in reading the lead indicators for the US economy
Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
13
Roger J Kerr says the expected 'V' shaped recovery in the NZD/USD rate to 0.6800 has had a set-back with this latest US inflation result
Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
27
Roger J Kerr sees the NZ dollar sustaining its upward momentum. He also wants to see the RBNZ's remit extended to encourage proactivity in tackling the non-tradable inflation drivers
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ is demanding respect and credibility - but it needs to earn it
Roger J Kerr believes the recent bout of strength in the US dollar has now run its course
Roger J Kerr says there is clear evidence the US inflation rate will start to move down from the peak recorded in the year to March
6
Roger J Kerr says there is clear evidence the US inflation rate will start to move down from the peak recorded in the year to March
Roger J Kerr asks some pertinent questions and proffers some answers on the way ahead for the New Zealand dollar
10
Roger J Kerr asks some pertinent questions and proffers some answers on the way ahead for the New Zealand dollar
Roger J Kerr assesses the issues causing the Kiwi dollar to be under pressure
Roger J Kerr reckons the bulk of our rapidly rising inflation can be attributed to policy positions of successive governments over the past 15 years, and the fall away of imported deflation has exposed a problem of our own making
35
Roger J Kerr reckons the bulk of our rapidly rising inflation can be attributed to policy positions of successive governments over the past 15 years, and the fall away of imported deflation has exposed a problem of our own making
Roger J Kerr says that although the NZ dollar is at the bottom end of its trading range, it may get a boost of Q1-2022 CPI comes in above estimates. The RBNZ needs a higher dollar to mitigate this high inflation, he says
6
Roger J Kerr says that although the NZ dollar is at the bottom end of its trading range, it may get a boost of Q1-2022 CPI comes in above estimates. The RBNZ needs a higher dollar to mitigate this high inflation, he says
Roger J Kerr says updated central bank messages have caused a 'boom-bust' environment for the NZ dollar
1
Roger J Kerr says updated central bank messages have caused a 'boom-bust' environment for the NZ dollar