Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months