Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate

Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate

Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation

Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation

Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession

Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession

Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target

Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target

Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message

Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message

Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023

Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023

Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index

Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index

Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability

Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability

Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow

Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow

Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high

Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high

Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors

Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors

Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government

Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government

Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks

Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks

Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators

Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators

Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars

Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars

Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record

Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record

Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years

Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years

Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome

Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome

Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate

Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate

Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored

Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored

Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing

Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing

Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end

Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end

Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling

Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling

Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting

Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting

Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350

Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350