About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says the reign of the US dollar is now teetering
Roger J Kerr examines some of the factors behind the US dollar selling
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
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Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
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Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
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Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
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Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
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Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
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Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
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Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
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Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
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Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
Roger J Kerr outlines why the New Zealand dollar has been rising
Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields