sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

Roger J Kerr

About

Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.

Member for

15 years 4 months

Latest articles

Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
1
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
5
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
16
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
4
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
4
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
6
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
11
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
16th Oct 23, 8:37am
4
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
6
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
2nd Oct 23, 8:35am
2
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
2
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
18th Sep 23, 9:06am
22
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
11th Sep 23, 8:11am
10
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
2
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
28th Aug 23, 8:20am
8
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
21st Aug 23, 8:49am
3
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
14th Aug 23, 8:32am
3
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
7th Aug 23, 8:54am
3
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
31st Jul 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
24th Jul 23, 8:28am
2
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
17th Jul 23, 9:00am
6
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
10th Jul 23, 9:24am
1
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
3rd Jul 23, 8:49am
1
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months