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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

7 years 10 months

Latest articles

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Overbought NZD slips
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
NZD
NZD only slightly higher on the crosses compared to pre-MPS levels
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
seeing what you want to
Risk appetite higher and USD broadly weaker; NZD pushes higher
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
by Jason Wong
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
NZD and AUD reach highest levels in more than three months
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
28th Nov 23, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
Americans return from holiday break to lower rates across Europe and US Treasury yields down 3-4bps from last week's close, 10-year rate down 7bps
NYSE trading floor
Gain in NZD sustained overnight
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
24th Nov 23, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
European bond yields push higher from stronger than expected PMIs, hawkish ECB commentary and prospect of increased German bond supply as the government looks to suspend the "debt brake". Other markets quiet
Michele Bullock, RBA Governor
NZD weaker, NZD/AUD down after hawkish speech by RBA Governor Bullock
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
23rd Nov 23, 7:47am
by Jason Wong
1
US data weren’t market-friendly, sending US Treasury yields higher, reversing earlier declines. The data also gives the USD some broad support. Oil prices lower as OPEC+ squabbles over future production levels
NZD rockets higher
NZD up to a three-month high
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
22nd Nov 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
Stronger Asian currencies means the USD/JPY breaks below 148, playing catch-up to recent fall in US rates. US 10-year rate consolidates near 4.4%
NYSE trading floor
A risk-off vibe overhangs financial markets
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
17th Nov 23, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields are lower, following a series of weaker US economic indicators. Oil prices plunge close to 5%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, seeing NZ-US 10-year spread down to 48bps; NZ 2-year swap continues to push lower
NZD and AUD outperform
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
16th Nov 23, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
1
US Treasuries reverse course, with 10-year rate up 10bps on the day following yesterdays 19bps drop. US data consistent with soft landing, disinflationary narrative; retail sales soft but better than expected, while PPI much weaker than expected
Australian dollars
The AUD has outperformed, seeing NZD/AUD push lower as the NZD remains flat
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
14th Nov 23, 7:55am
by Jason Wong
Market movements modest ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release, with little net change in US equities and Treasury yields; modest currency changes
NYSE trading floor
NZD modestly outperforms for no particular reason and pushes higher on all the key crosses
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
10th Nov 23, 7:47am
by Jason Wong
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
oil and currencies
Commodity currencies slightly weaker, but NZD more or less range bound
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
9th Nov 23, 8:03am
by Jason Wong
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
RBA
NZD and AUD modestly weaker after last week's hefty gains
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
7th Nov 23, 7:40am
by Jason Wong
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
down-marketrf1
Weaker than expected NZ labour market data drives weaker NZD and rates
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
2nd Nov 23, 8:25am
by Jason Wong
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
weak yen
USD broadly stronger and US Treasury yields push higher
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
1st Nov 23, 7:48am
by Jason Wong
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
USD falls
USD broadly weaker. JPY and AUD outperform
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
31st Oct 23, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
Australian dollars
Eyes on important Aussie CPI for Q3
Softer European PMIs, stronger US PMIs support stronger USD. NZD/AUD grinds down further. US 10-year rate sustains the fall to below 5%
25th Oct 23, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
Softer European PMIs, stronger US PMIs support stronger USD. NZD/AUD grinds down further. US 10-year rate sustains the fall to below 5%
Oil market continues to trade as if the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t spread
Wild price action in the bond market; US 10-year rate trades as high as 5.02% before sharply plunging to 4.83%. US equities weak until sharp fall in rates drives strong recovery off the low
24th Oct 23, 7:48am
by Jason Wong
4
Wild price action in the bond market; US 10-year rate trades as high as 5.02% before sharply plunging to 4.83%. US equities weak until sharp fall in rates drives strong recovery off the low
NYSE trading floor
Weaker risk appetite sees NZD hit a fresh low for the year
Whippy markets during Powell speech as US 10-year trades a fresh high for the cycle. NZ long-term rates follow global moves and close at fresh highs
20th Oct 23, 8:09am
by Jason Wong
Whippy markets during Powell speech as US 10-year trades a fresh high for the cycle. NZ long-term rates follow global moves and close at fresh highs
US dollar
NZD sustains weakness after softer CPI; AUD sustains post RBA-minutes strength
Much stronger than expected US retail sales data and recovery in industrial production play to economic resilience narrative. US Treasury yields higher across the curve
18th Oct 23, 8:04am
by Jason Wong
Much stronger than expected US retail sales data and recovery in industrial production play to economic resilience narrative. US Treasury yields higher across the curve
Little impact on markets from NZ election result - NZD and AUD both outperform on higher risk appetite
New week kicks off with higher risk appetite. USD broadly weaker, US equities higher, US Treasury yields higher with 10-year rate up 10bps. Eyes on NZ CPI, expecting high inflation rate
17th Oct 23, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
New week kicks off with higher risk appetite. USD broadly weaker, US equities higher, US Treasury yields higher with 10-year rate up 10bps. Eyes on NZ CPI, expecting high inflation rate
NYSE trading floor
US broadly stronger; NZD and AUD underperform
Annual US core inflation falls to two-year low of 4.1%, but strong underbelly for September plays to higher for longer rates theme. US Treasury yields up strongly, with further kick higher for the long end after a poor 30-year auction
13th Oct 23, 7:57am
by Jason Wong
Annual US core inflation falls to two-year low of 4.1%, but strong underbelly for September plays to higher for longer rates theme. US Treasury yields up strongly, with further kick higher for the long end after a poor 30-year auction
NZD up
The NZD has sustained its move above 60 USc
Markets taking a sanguine view on Israel-Hamas conflict. Market more focused on the possible end of Fed tightening cycle after recent Fed speeches. Chance of additional Fed hike down to 30%; US Treasuries sustain yesterday's rally
11th Oct 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Markets taking a sanguine view on Israel-Hamas conflict. Market more focused on the possible end of Fed tightening cycle after recent Fed speeches. Chance of additional Fed hike down to 30%; US Treasuries sustain yesterday's rally
risk aversion
Safe-havens JPY, CHF outperform; NZD shows a surprise recovery
Market focused on implications of renewed geopolitical risk. Muted reaction so far. Fed speakers say they are mindful of the recent tightening in financial conditions
10th Oct 23, 7:40am
by Jason Wong
Market focused on implications of renewed geopolitical risk. Muted reaction so far. Fed speakers say they are mindful of the recent tightening in financial conditions
repeating
NZ rates at fresh cycle highs ahead of RBNZ today
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
4th Oct 23, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
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