Jason Wong

US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms

US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms

In a heavy US data release day, activity and pricing indicators were weak, driving down US rates and supported US equities. The NZD and AUD underperform again

In a heavy US data release day, activity and pricing indicators were weak, driving down US rates and supported US equities. The NZD and AUD underperform again

US Treasury yields push higher as focus turns to the US fiscal outlook. US equities 'consolidate'. Despite talk, currency markets little-changed

US Treasury yields push higher as focus turns to the US fiscal outlook. US equities 'consolidate'. Despite talk, currency markets little-changed

US CPI report softer than expected, but rates market largely ignores it, with a focus on tariffs lifting future inflation; US Treasury yields push higher, with 10-year rate hitting 4.5%

US CPI report softer than expected, but rates market largely ignores it, with a focus on tariffs lifting future inflation; US Treasury yields push higher, with 10-year rate hitting 4.5%

Significant de-escalation of the US-China trade war a better outcome than expected. Equity markets have soared. Global rates are much higher, USD rises strongly

Significant de-escalation of the US-China trade war a better outcome than expected. Equity markets have soared. Global rates are much higher, USD rises strongly

Risk sentiment is higher on trade war de-escalation with a US and UK trade “framework”. US equities are up over 1% and Treasury yields are up 10-13bps. Hopes for trade deals have supported the USD across the board

Risk sentiment is higher on trade war de-escalation with a US and UK trade “framework”. US equities are up over 1% and Treasury yields are up 10-13bps. Hopes for trade deals have supported the USD across the board

US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the USD is broadly weaker, with the market remaining fixated on tariffs and the impact for the US economy. Strong GDT dairy auction and oil prices rebound 3%

US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the USD is broadly weaker, with the market remaining fixated on tariffs and the impact for the US economy. Strong GDT dairy auction and oil prices rebound 3%

Taiwan dollar surges again, driven by speculation on trade deals. US-Japan trade negotiations not looking good for Japan so far. Stronger than expected ISM survey assuages fear of US economic recession

Taiwan dollar surges again, driven by speculation on trade deals. US-Japan trade negotiations not looking good for Japan so far. Stronger than expected ISM survey assuages fear of US economic recession

US equities higher after strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta; ISM PMI didn’t fall as much as expected, even if there are clear signs of cracks opening in the US economy. Chatter that the US is trying to initiate trade talks with China

US equities higher after strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta; ISM PMI didn’t fall as much as expected, even if there are clear signs of cracks opening in the US economy. Chatter that the US is trying to initiate trade talks with China

US economic data awful - exploding trade deficit adds to Q1 GDP downside risk; weaker consumer confidence and drop in job openings. Some backdown on auto tariffs but China won't "kneel down" on trade war

US economic data awful - exploding trade deficit adds to Q1 GDP downside risk; weaker consumer confidence and drop in job openings. Some backdown on auto tariffs but China won't "kneel down" on trade war

China's foreign ministry confirms China and the US are NOT engaged in trade talks. Another poor Fed regional survey; plenty of media commentary on reduced China-US trade and prospect of empty US shelves ahead

China's foreign ministry confirms China and the US are NOT engaged in trade talks. Another poor Fed regional survey; plenty of media commentary on reduced China-US trade and prospect of empty US shelves ahead

Claim then denials on US tariff policy shifts. Softer European and US PMI data; US beige book shows early economic impact of tariffs. Equities rise, then fade. USD broadly stronger

Claim then denials on US tariff policy shifts. Softer European and US PMI data; US beige book shows early economic impact of tariffs. Equities rise, then fade. USD broadly stronger

More positive mood music around trade and tariffs, with "significant progress" on a US-India trade deal and Bessent expecting de-escalating US-China trade tension. IMF slashes growth forecasts on the trade war

More positive mood music around trade and tariffs, with "significant progress" on a US-India trade deal and Bessent expecting de-escalating US-China trade tension. IMF slashes growth forecasts on the trade war

Trump renews attack on Fed Chair Powell, reinvigorating the "Sell America" trade. US-Japan trade negotiations not going well. US assets trading more like a Banana republic. US longer-term rates increase and USD falls to fresh multi-year lows

Trump renews attack on Fed Chair Powell, reinvigorating the "Sell America" trade. US-Japan trade negotiations not going well. US assets trading more like a Banana republic. US longer-term rates increase and USD falls to fresh multi-year lows

US equities under pressure again. US pressuring trading partners to limit their dealings with China; China open to trade talks under certain conditions. Bank of Canada on hold and ditches forecasts and guidance

US equities under pressure again. US pressuring trading partners to limit their dealings with China; China open to trade talks under certain conditions. Bank of Canada on hold and ditches forecasts and guidance

China stops ordering new Boeing aircraft and halt purchases of aircraft and parts from US companies. No progress on EU-US trade negotiations. But financial markets calmer

China stops ordering new Boeing aircraft and halt purchases of aircraft and parts from US companies. No progress on EU-US trade negotiations. But financial markets calmer

Trump considers windback of tariffs to help the auto sector, following the carve-out for some electronic goods from China. Calmer markets. US Treasuries reverse some of last week's movement. Global equities recover

Trump considers windback of tariffs to help the auto sector, following the carve-out for some electronic goods from China. Calmer markets. US Treasuries reverse some of last week's movement. Global equities recover

Market focus on tariff negotiations with countries lined up; China is a notable exception and China said it will "fight to end". Markets remain choppy; Big early gain in US equities eroded

Market focus on tariff negotiations with countries lined up; China is a notable exception and China said it will "fight to end". Markets remain choppy; Big early gain in US equities eroded

Some wild market movements overnight; S&P500 trades a high/low range of 8.5%; EU working out how to retaliate. Bond markets sell off; UST 10-year rate trades above 4.2% overnight, curve steepens

Some wild market movements overnight; S&P500 trades a high/low range of 8.5%; EU working out how to retaliate. Bond markets sell off; UST 10-year rate trades above 4.2% overnight, curve steepens

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy was much worse than expected, rocking financial markets. Flight to quality as global equities plunge. Bonds well supported. Oil prices plunge on global growth concerns and OPEC+ production upscale

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy was much worse than expected, rocking financial markets. Flight to quality as global equities plunge. Bonds well supported. Oil prices plunge on global growth concerns and OPEC+ production upscale

Reports the US 'reciprocal tariffs' will come in three bands, differing by country and industry. Wall Street rises. US Treasury yields rise

Reports the US 'reciprocal tariffs' will come in three bands, differing by country and industry. Wall Street rises. US Treasury yields rise

US tariff uncertainty weighs on global equity markets; some chunky falls across the world and US equities on track for their worst quarter in nearly three years. Oil prices higher after Trump mulls secondary tariffs for buyers of Russian crude

US tariff uncertainty weighs on global equity markets; some chunky falls across the world and US equities on track for their worst quarter in nearly three years. Oil prices higher after Trump mulls secondary tariffs for buyers of Russian crude

Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace deal. White House conflict on tariff basis. US Conference Board consumer confidence plunges, as per the University of Michigan survey

Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace deal. White House conflict on tariff basis. US Conference Board consumer confidence plunges, as per the University of Michigan survey

Risk appetite higher as market embraces view that 'Liberation Day' will see narrower scope of tariffs than previously thought. US services PMI stronger than expected, allaying recession fears. US Treasury yields up towards top of recent trading range

Risk appetite higher as market embraces view that 'Liberation Day' will see narrower scope of tariffs than previously thought. US services PMI stronger than expected, allaying recession fears. US Treasury yields up towards top of recent trading range

US equities slightly higher, US Treasuries in a tight trading range, USD slightly stronger. Nine more sleeps until "Liberation Day", when Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect; speculation that they will be narrower than previously threatened

US equities slightly higher, US Treasuries in a tight trading range, USD slightly stronger. Nine more sleeps until "Liberation Day", when Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect; speculation that they will be narrower than previously threatened