Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

6 years 5 months

Latest articles

Business survey highlights recession risk overhanging NZ economy

Weak US spending data could mean their economy was in recession in first half of 2022; PCE deflators also softer than expected. Global rates show big falls; Germany 2-year rate down 20bps; US Treasuries 5-year down 14bps

1st Jul 22, 7:55am

by Jason Wong

NZD underperforms, weaker on all key crosses

Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB

29th Jun 22, 7:57am

by Jason Wong

Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB

NZD and AUD show modest falls to start the week

Global rates reverse course and head higher again; UST yields up 6-8bps. NZ rates fall playing catch-up to global moves at the end of last week

28th Jun 22, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

Global rates reverse course and head higher again; UST yields up 6-8bps. NZ rates fall playing catch-up to global moves at the end of last week

Commodity currencies in minor recovery

Risk sentiment improves with less policy tightening priced into curves; S&P500 up over 3% on Friday. Data on PMIs and US inflation expectations drive global rates lower; NZ rates market to play catch-up after Friday holiday

27th Jun 22, 7:50am

by Jason Wong

NZ rates lower on global forces

Risk appetite appears weaker on increasing global recession fears. Chunky falls in global rates, commodities broadly weaker and NZD and AUD underperform

23rd Jun 22, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

Risk appetite appears weaker on increasing global recession fears. Chunky falls in global rates, commodities broadly weaker and NZD and AUD underperform

NZ consumer confidence plunges in the face of higher inflation and mortgage rates

Strong bounce-back in US equities after the US public holiday, with S&P 500 up 2.5%; global rates push higher

22nd Jun 22, 7:59am

by Jason Wong

Strong bounce-back in US equities after the US public holiday, with S&P 500 up 2.5%; global rates push higher

Commodity currencies make gains

Risk appetite slightly higher, with global equities and rates higher. Bullard sees inflation fight winnable without recession. Quiet trading in financial markets with the US public holiday

21st Jun 22, 7:50am

by Jason Wong

Risk appetite slightly higher, with global equities and rates higher. Bullard sees inflation fight winnable without recession. Quiet trading in financial markets with the US public holiday

NZ 2-year swap rate nudges higher to close up 51bps for the week, adding to NZ recession risk

Modest changes in US equities and USTs on Friday, but caps off a wild week in markets. Oil prices tumble 5-7%, commodities market generally weaker in the face of rising global recession risk. AUD under pressure

20th Jun 22, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

NZD heads towards 64 USc, notably outperforming the AUD

Surprise 50bps hike by the Swiss National Bank. US economic dataflow much weaker than expected. USD tumbles as recession fears trump safe-haven bid, amid chunky falls in equity markets

17th Jun 22, 7:57am

by Jason Wong

Surprise 50bps hike by the Swiss National Bank. US economic dataflow much weaker than expected. USD tumbles as recession fears trump safe-haven bid, amid chunky falls in equity markets

NZ rates continue to surge, driven by global forces; OCR seen to peak at 4.5% or higher

Market prices in more aggressive Fed tightening, 75bps this week and a likely follow-up move next month. US Treasury yields continue rise across the curve; 10-year rate approaching 3.5%

15th Jun 22, 7:59am

by Jason Wong

Market prices in more aggressive Fed tightening, 75bps this week and a likely follow-up move next month. US Treasury yields continue rise across the curve; 10-year rate approaching 3.5%

Domestic rates up to fresh multi-year highs with more of the same likely today

Markets in turmoil; US equities down 3%; USTs up about 20bps across the curve. As inflation fears increase and market prices in much more aggressive tightening. UK has recession on its doorstep and possible trade war with EU

14th Jun 22, 8:07am

by Jason Wong

NZD lower but some lift on the crosses; NZ rates close at multi-year highs with more upside pressure likely today

Strong US CPI inflation data destroys the inflation-has-peaked narrative. Stagflation in focus as US consumer sentiment falls to a record low as well and long-term inflation expectations rise

13th Jun 22, 7:31am

by Jason Wong

Strong US CPI inflation data destroys the inflation-has-peaked narrative. Stagflation in focus as US consumer sentiment falls to a record low as well and long-term inflation expectations rise

NZD falls below 64 USc

ECB offers a hawkish policy update; guides a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September. Commodity currencies whacked on weaker risk sentiment. NZ 10 year NZGB closes at a 7-year high

10th Jun 22, 7:57am

by Jason Wong

ECB offers a hawkish policy update; guides a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September. Commodity currencies whacked on weaker risk sentiment. NZ 10 year NZGB closes at a 7-year high

NZD rises with improved global risk sentiment

USD shows meaningful broad-based weakness; NZD and AUD outperform. Oil prices rise despite OPEC+ agreeing to ramp up production schedule; Copper up over 5%. Soft US ADP payrolls; Fed's Brainard hawkish, hoses down talk of a September pause

3rd Jun 22, 7:46am

by Jason Wong

NZD underperforms; NZD/AUD back below pre-RBNZ MPS level

Euro area inflation hits record high; European rates continue to push higher. Higher rates backdrop leads to cautious tone in equity markets. NZ business survey highlights stagflationary fears

1st Jun 22, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

Euro area inflation hits record high; European rates continue to push higher. Higher rates backdrop leads to cautious tone in equity markets. NZ business survey highlights stagflationary fears

NZD and AUD push higher as China lockdown restrictions ease

Strength of Germany CPI shocks the market. European rates higher; EUR higher; US on holiday, but futures point to 5bps lift in 10-year rate

31st May 22, 7:58am

by Jason Wong

Strength of Germany CPI shocks the market. European rates higher; EUR higher; US on holiday, but futures point to 5bps lift in 10-year rate

NZD drifts slightly lower

US equities up over 2% on positive retailers' earnings reports, but no risk-on vibe though for bonds and currencies. NZ 2s10s swap curve goes negative, a leading indicator of economic recession

27th May 22, 7:57am

by Jason Wong

US equities up over 2% on positive retailers' earnings reports, but no risk-on vibe though for bonds and currencies. NZ 2s10s swap curve goes negative, a leading indicator of economic recession

NZD flat as USD 'mixed'

Weaker earnings backdrop and growth outlook concerns weigh on markets. Equity markets weaker; global rates lower. RBNZ MPS today, another "dovish" 50bps hike likely

25th May 22, 7:51am

by Jason Wong

Weaker earnings backdrop and growth outlook concerns weigh on markets. Equity markets weaker; global rates lower. RBNZ MPS today, another "dovish" 50bps hike likely

NZD benefits from a rise in risk sentiment

Risk sentiment improves with no obvious triggers. Strong gains in equity markets; global rates higher. Mixed news from China. ECB provides clear rate hike guidance for Q3

24th May 22, 8:01am

by Jason Wong

Risk sentiment improves with no obvious triggers. Strong gains in equity markets; global rates higher. Mixed news from China. ECB provides clear rate hike guidance for Q3

NZD pushes back up to 64 USc

USD significantly weaker as US economic growth concerns supersede safe-haven status. Risk appetite remains weak. NZ Budget doesn't perturb financial markets

20th May 22, 7:51am

by Jason Wong

USD significantly weaker as US economic growth concerns supersede safe-haven status. Risk appetite remains weak. NZ Budget doesn't perturb financial markets

NZD falls as safe haven currencies outperform

US equities plunge on weak retailer earning reports; S&P500 down 4%. Market waking up to the damage that high inflation can inflict. NZ Budget today; expecting looser fiscal policy and increased bond tender program

19th May 22, 7:57am

by Jason Wong

NZD's rise stunted by another weak dairy auction

Risk sentiment recovers on positive US economic data and easing of Shanghai restrictions. Global rates up across the board, with come chunky gains across Europe

18th May 22, 7:46am

by Jason Wong

Risk sentiment recovers on positive US economic data and easing of Shanghai restrictions. Global rates up across the board, with come chunky gains across Europe

NZD recovers strongly as commodity prices rise

Risk appetite weaker on poor China economic data but a recovery has ensued. US equities now modestly higher after earlier weakness in futures markets. Global food price inflation rising

17th May 22, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

Risk appetite weaker on poor China economic data but a recovery has ensued. US equities now modestly higher after earlier weakness in futures markets. Global food price inflation rising

NZD trades in a 1-cent range

US CPI inflation stronger than expected, generating some market volatility resulting in lower US equity markets, flatter US yield curve. Brexit risks re-emerge

12th May 22, 7:56am

by Jason Wong

US CPI inflation stronger than expected, generating some market volatility resulting in lower US equity markets, flatter US yield curve. Brexit risks re-emerge

US Federal Reserve hikes Federal Funds Rate 50 basis points

Thursday breakfast briefing: US Fed hikes, eyes quantitative tightening from June, EU to ban Russian crude oil

5th May 22, 7:30am

by Jason Wong

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Thursday breakfast briefing: US Fed hikes, eyes quantitative tightening from June, EU to ban Russian crude oil