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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 2 months

Latest articles

NYSE trading floor
NZD rises against the USD, AUD and JPY
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
23rd Feb 24, 7:41am
by Jason Wong
2
Record breaking equity markets across Japan, euro area and US; Nvidia's blockbuster earnings report propels the stock higher and drives S&P500 up 2%. Market continues to pare back expectations of Fed easing
bidding frenzy
30-year NZ Government Bond attracts bids exceeding $16 billion
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
21st Feb 24, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
US equities lower, led by tech, US Treasury yields lower and USD broadly weaker. Market unperturbed by surprise cut to China's 5-year prime loan rate, scepticism that it will achieve much. NZD outperforms
US dollar and Chinese yuan
NZD outperforms, NZD/JPY pushes up to fresh nine-year high
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
20th Feb 24, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
China reopens after LNY holiday with positive economic snippets on travel and spending. European gas and carbon markets continue show much weaker pricing
NYSE trading floor
Big fall in NZ rates yesterday, larger than seen in Australia, with bond tender attracting strong demand
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
16th Feb 24, 7:47am
by Jason Wong
1
Gloomy data - UK and Japan in recession in 2H23, Australian unemployment rate at a 2-year high; and a big downside miss in US retail sales for January. USD broadly weaker
USD rising
NZD & AUD whacked after US CPI data, despite local inflation expectation improvements
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
14th Feb 24, 7:29am
by Jason Wong
1
Stronger than expected US CPI data rock the market, pushing out the timing of any likely Fed rate cuts; Core measure up 0.4% m/m, annual figure steady at 3.9%. NZ inflation expectations data were market-friendly
NZD down
NZD loses some air against all majors, following last week's outperformance
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
13th Feb 24, 7:48am
by Jason Wong
Pricing for RBNZ rate hikes fades a little, down to 33% chance for February meeting; domestic rates market messy with OIS yields lower, 2-year swap lifting to 5.23%. US Treasury rates little changed; US equities continue to push higher
NYSE trading floor
Higher NZ-Australian rate spreads push NZD/AUD towards 94 AUc
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
9th Feb 24, 7:41am
by Jason Wong
Global rates push higher; Fed and ECB speakers continue to run the line of being patient regarding future rate cuts. USD broadly stronger, NZD back below 0.61 and AUD below 0.65
money pile
NZD tests 2024 lows
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
7th Feb 24, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields fall back after significant two-day sell-off. Chinese equities well supported after State regulator steps in. No fireworks from RBA yesterday. Dairy prices continue to recover
NYSE trading floor
USD slips on weaker US labour market data
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
2nd Feb 24, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
1
US jobless claims rise; strong productivity contains unit labour cost inflation to a low rate; lift in ISM manufacturing index largely ignored. US Treasury yields push down to fresh lows for the year; 5-year rate at lowest level since June
aircraft holding pattern
Commodity currencies turn firmer
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
30th Jan 24, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Markets in holding pattern but fully prices in April cut for ECB, dragging down European rates and EUR. Oil prices fall back after strong Asia open
The NZD starts week weaker
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
29th Jan 24, 7:44am
by Jason Wong
US data confirm solid end to the year for consumer spending and inflation tracking near target. Tokyo CPI data comes in surprisingly soft. ECB speakers deliver mixed messages on prospects for near-term policy easing
NYSE trading floor
A Goldilocks US economy
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
26th Jan 24, 8:34am
by Jason Wong
1
GDP up an annualised 3.3% in Q4, PCE deflator at 1.5% and core PCE deflator at 2%. US Treasury market supported by the benign inflation backdrop, yields slightly lower. European rates and EUR lower. NZD flat just over 61 USc
currency moves
USD broadly weaker; NZD climbs
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
25th Jan 24, 8:11am
by Jason Wong
US equities rise to fresh record high. China surprises with 50bps cut to RRR; Bank of Canada drops tightening bias; Global PMI data support the market. NZ inflation moderates
record-breaking
NZD finds support just under 61 USc
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
23rd Jan 24, 7:48am
by Jason Wong
US equities continue their record-breaking run, a contrast with the slump in Chinese equities. Global rates push lower, US 10-year rate down slightly. No change expected from the BoJ later today
NYSE trading floor
NZD flat against the USD, down on most crosses
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
19th Jan 24, 7:48am
by Jason Wong
US 10-year rate up to a fresh high for the year of 4.15%, driven by US initial jobless claims showing a surprising fall to a 16-month low. Global forces push up NZ rates, with a weak first bond tender of the year not helping NZGBs
NZD down
Higher US rates boost USD; NZD extends recent losses
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
17th Jan 24, 7:47am
by Jason Wong
Lift in US Treasury yields during Asian session extended overnight; rates up 10-13bps across the curve for the day. Fed Governor Waller argues that, when the timing is right, the Fed Funds rate should be "lowered mechanically and carefully"
A broadly stronger USD has pressed down the JPY, AUD and NZD
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
16th Jan 24, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
S&P500 futures down slightly and US Treasury futures consistent with a lift in the 10-year rate. Euro area economic data continue to underwhelm but ECB commentary shows reluctance to cut rates; German rates push higher
pushback
NZD hits resistance, then slips
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
19th Dec 23, 7:51am
by Jason Wong
More pushback from Fed officials on market pricing for significantly easier monetary policy next year, but market shows little reaction in Fed Funds market; US Treasury yields push higher, led by long end; oil prices continue to recover
interest-ratesrf4.jpg
NZD weaker but recovers overnight
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
14th Dec 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Weaker than expected US PPI, UK GDP and euro area industrial production data supports extended bond market rally. Domestic rates tumbled yesterday, some attributed to weaker pricing indicators
ignoring the evidence
NZ interest rates market ignores further undesired strength in net migration
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
13th Dec 23, 7:57am
by Jason Wong
US core CPI up 4.0% y/y, in line with market expectations but not weak enough to encourage the market to price in any more easing next year
AUD down
AUD slips on China sentiment; NZD holds
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
Not hiring sign
NZD/AUD pushes higher
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
1
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
spillover
USD broadly stronger; NZD down
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
6th Dec 23, 8:08am
by Jason Wong
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
r
Overbought NZD slips
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
NZD
NZD only slightly higher on the crosses compared to pre-MPS levels
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
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