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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 2 months

Latest articles

ust yield rise
USD broadly stronger; AUD whacked after RBA's on-hold decision; NZD underperforms as well
US Treasury yields higher, led by the long end of the curve. Sentiment on increased supply and BoJ's move last week probably not helping. GDT dairy auction poor
2nd Aug 23, 8:04am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields higher, led by the long end of the curve. Sentiment on increased supply and BoJ's move last week probably not helping. GDT dairy auction poor
Yen stronger against a backdrop of broad USD strength. NZD back below 62 USc, AUD falls
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy
28th Jul 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Run of stronger than expected US economic activity data continues. ECB hikes, keeps options open for more. Reports BoJ will tweak of its yield curve control policy
Jerome Powell
NZD back above 62 USc. NZD/AUD near 0.92 after softer than expected Australia CPI data
Fed hikes 25bps, the same as the NZ OCR. Fed keeps options open, maintains slight tightening bias. US rates and USD down modestly after Fed Chair spoke
27th Jul 23, 7:41am
by Jason Wong
1
Fed hikes 25bps, the same as the NZ OCR. Fed keeps options open, maintains slight tightening bias. US rates and USD down modestly after Fed Chair spoke
market sentiment indicator
NZD and AUD outperform as yuan strengthens
Improved sentiment on China supports risk assets. EUR weaker on soft ECB bank lending survey. US equities continue to rally. Consumer confidence up to 2-year high; Treasury yields push higher ahead of Fed meeting early tomorrow
26th Jul 23, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
Improved sentiment on China supports risk assets. EUR weaker on soft ECB bank lending survey. US equities continue to rally. Consumer confidence up to 2-year high; Treasury yields push higher ahead of Fed meeting early tomorrow
NZD and AUD dragged higher by PBoC moves, but broad USD strength overnight then pulls them back down
US Treasury yields higher as labour market data remain remain too strong for comfort. Global forces and post-CPI afterglow drive NZ rates higher. Strong Australian employment report keeps prospect of further RBA tightening alive
21st Jul 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields higher as labour market data remain remain too strong for comfort. Global forces and post-CPI afterglow drive NZ rates higher. Strong Australian employment report keeps prospect of further RBA tightening alive
hosing down
NZD much weaker overnight ahead of today's Q2 CPI release
Lower European rates support US Treasuries. US retail sales report mixed. ECB's usually hawkish Knot hoses down rate hike expectations beyond next week's meeting. German rates fall 10-13bps
19th Jul 23, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
1
Lower European rates support US Treasuries. US retail sales report mixed. ECB's usually hawkish Knot hoses down rate hike expectations beyond next week's meeting. German rates fall 10-13bps
NZD down
NZD underperforms and is lower on all the key crosses
Weaker than expected China activity data drive weaker yuan, spilling over into weaker NZD and AUD. Global rates push lower, NZ rates play catch-up
18th Jul 23, 7:42am
by Jason Wong
1
Weaker than expected China activity data drive weaker yuan, spilling over into weaker NZD and AUD. Global rates push lower, NZ rates play catch-up
Commodity currencies underperform on weaker risk appetite
Very strong US ADP payrolls and stronger ISM services report keep alive the probability of further Fed hikes; bond market selloff extends. NZ rates up to fresh multi-year highs as well, with more upside pressure likely today
7th Jul 23, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
Very strong US ADP payrolls and stronger ISM services report keep alive the probability of further Fed hikes; bond market selloff extends. NZ rates up to fresh multi-year highs as well, with more upside pressure likely today
Mood around China sours after weak Caixin services PM, driving weaker yuan and AUD
US Treasuries curve steepens, led by the long end; US 10-year rate up 8bps to a fresh three-month high. NZ rates higher as investors make way for new bond supply; demand solid for syndicated tap of 2033s, despite deteriorating fiscal accounts
6th Jul 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
1
US Treasuries curve steepens, led by the long end; US 10-year rate up 8bps to a fresh three-month high. NZ rates higher as investors make way for new bond supply; demand solid for syndicated tap of 2033s, despite deteriorating fiscal accounts
can kicking
USD broadly weaker; NZD and AUD outperform, with yuan seeing better support
NZD/AUD pushes higher as RBA opts for a pause in the tightening cycle. Market ignored NZ QSBO which was a very monetary policy-friendly report, with significant easing in capacity pressures
5th Jul 23, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
NZD/AUD pushes higher as RBA opts for a pause in the tightening cycle. Market ignored NZ QSBO which was a very monetary policy-friendly report, with significant easing in capacity pressures
global-recessionrf1
NZD slightly stronger. NZDJPY breaks above 89 for first time in eight-years
US ISM manufacturing survey soft, consistent with recession in the sector. But US equities and US Treasury yields push higher in a holiday-shortened session. NZ QSBO today and a finely balanced RBA policy decision
4th Jul 23, 7:59am
by Jason Wong
US ISM manufacturing survey soft, consistent with recession in the sector. But US equities and US Treasury yields push higher in a holiday-shortened session. NZ QSBO today and a finely balanced RBA policy decision
A weaker USD helps NZD and AUD recover mid-week losses
PBoC and BoJ step up verbal intervention to control their depreciating currencies. Softer US consumer spending and PCE deflators support US Treasuries and US equities but drive the USD lower
3rd Jul 23, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
PBoC and BoJ step up verbal intervention to control their depreciating currencies. Softer US consumer spending and PCE deflators support US Treasuries and US equities but drive the USD lower
USD broadly stronger; yuan still struggling
US initial jobless claims fall, Q1 GDP revised up, so run of positive US economic surprises continues. US rates much higher across the board. Projected Fed hikes seen more likely. US equities unperturbed. NZ business confidence improves further
30th Jun 23, 8:20am
by Jason Wong
US initial jobless claims fall, Q1 GDP revised up, so run of positive US economic surprises continues. US rates much higher across the board. Projected Fed hikes seen more likely. US equities unperturbed. NZ business confidence improves further
devaluing yuan
NZD and AUD whacked by weaker than expected Australian monthly CPI data and the PBoC not getting in the way of a weaker yuan
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views. BoJ reiterates dovish stance. US Treasury yields down 4-5bps regardless. NZ swap rates dragged down by Australian rates
29th Jun 23, 8:09am
by Jason Wong
Fed, ECB, BoE heads reiterate hawkish views. BoJ reiterates dovish stance. US Treasury yields down 4-5bps regardless. NZ swap rates dragged down by Australian rates
Chinese yuan down
NZD beats off weak yuan and AUD
Yuan weaker despite PBoC signaling discomfort with rate of depreciation. AUD falls with it. No market fallout from the weekend Russian rebellion. Global equities modestly weaker, global rates slightly lower
27th Jun 23, 8:05am
by Jason Wong
Yuan weaker despite PBoC signaling discomfort with rate of depreciation. AUD falls with it. No market fallout from the weekend Russian rebellion. Global equities modestly weaker, global rates slightly lower
USD broadly stronger; global rates push higher
US initial jobless claims sustain recent move higher. US equities unperturbed by higher rates, with small to modest increases. Both BoE and Norges Bank upscale hikes to 50bps
23rd Jun 23, 8:05am
by Jason Wong
US initial jobless claims sustain recent move higher. US equities unperturbed by higher rates, with small to modest increases. Both BoE and Norges Bank upscale hikes to 50bps
dented risk sentiment
Weak sentiment on China drives yuan weaker, dragging down NZD and AUD
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
21st Jun 23, 8:01am
by Jason Wong
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
rates turn down
NZ-Australia 10-year spread down to four-month low as NZGBs outperform
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
20th Jun 23, 7:45am
by Jason Wong
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
USD broadly weaker; NZD back to pre-FOMC high
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
16th Jun 23, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
choppy weather
USD broadly weaker; NZD outperforms, blasts up through 62 USc
Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
15th Jun 23, 7:56am
by Jason Wong
1
Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
inflation-prickrf1
Broadly weaker USD but weak yuan after surprise PBoC easing holds back NZD and AUD recovery
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
14th Jun 23, 7:55am
by Jason Wong
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
Jerome Powell waiting
Oil prices fall -4%
US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
13th Jun 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
4
US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
Weaker USD sees NZD up. Global forces drives NZ rates higher
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
9th Jun 23, 7:58am
by Jason Wong
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
Canada up
NZD and AUD underperform alongside JPY; yuan weakens to fresh low for the year
Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
8th Jun 23, 8:08am
by Jason Wong
1
Bank of Canada surprises market with a 25bps hike, a move that spilled over into global rates and equity markets. US 10-year rate up 12bps for the day. Global forces lift NZ rates with more significant price action expected today
Chinese yuan down
AUD sustains sharp lift seen after RBA delivers another rate hike
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
7th Jun 23, 7:56am
by Jason Wong
NZD and AUD performance held back overnight by weak yuan on speculation of further policy easing to support China's economy. US Treasury rates flat to slightly higher. NZ rates play catch-up after long weekend
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