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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

10 years 7 months

Latest articles

pressure
NZD soft ahead of expected and well-priced RBNZ easing
US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed
by Jason Wong
US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed
NZD USD balance
NZD outperforms, showing modest gains on the crosses
Markets distracted by Ukraine war negotiations, otherwise little movement as northern summer holidays crimps activity. US Treasury yields are slightly higher overnight; USD is broadly stronger
by Jason Wong
Markets distracted by Ukraine war negotiations, otherwise little movement as northern summer holidays crimps activity. US Treasury yields are slightly higher overnight; USD is broadly stronger
NYSE trading floor
NZD a worst-performer
US PPI data much stronger than expected, with big jumps in both headline and core rates. Data drove up US rates, but market still shows strong conviction in a 25bps rate cut next month. USD broadly stronger
by Jason Wong
US PPI data much stronger than expected, with big jumps in both headline and core rates. Data drove up US rates, but market still shows strong conviction in a 25bps rate cut next month. USD broadly stronger
USD falls
USD broadly weaker
US CPI data were close to market expectations; of note the pass-through of tariffs into goods prices was less than expected. Market saw this as giving the Fed the green light to cut rates next month. RBA cuts as expected
by Jason Wong
US CPI data were close to market expectations; of note the pass-through of tariffs into goods prices was less than expected. Market saw this as giving the Fed the green light to cut rates next month. RBA cuts as expected
shakedown
NZD slightly weaker
Little market reaction to the alarming direction of US policy after Trump's move to invoke an export tax on some of Nvidia and AMD's chip sales, as a quid pro quo for access to China
by Jason Wong
2
Little market reaction to the alarming direction of US policy after Trump's move to invoke an export tax on some of Nvidia and AMD's chip sales, as a quid pro quo for access to China
NYSE trading floor
NZD slightly stronger on all crosses
Bloomberg reports Waller emerging as top candidate to replace Powell. Higher US tariffs kick in; Trump threatens 100% tariff on semiconductors, but carve-outs mean little impact for most. BofE votes 5-4 to cut rates
by Jason Wong
Bloomberg reports Waller emerging as top candidate to replace Powell. Higher US tariffs kick in; Trump threatens 100% tariff on semiconductors, but carve-outs mean little impact for most. BofE votes 5-4 to cut rates
stagnation and inflation
Tariffs and labour market weigh on the NZD
US ISM services survey had a stagflationary vibe with the index falling while the prices paid index rose to a 30-month high. US equities modestly weaker, US Treasury yields slightly higher
by Jason Wong
US ISM services survey had a stagflationary vibe with the index falling while the prices paid index rose to a 30-month high. US equities modestly weaker, US Treasury yields slightly higher
buy the dip
NZD flirts with 59 USc and underperforms
US equities bounce-back after Friday's lurch down as investors buy the dip. Oil prices down as market eyes greater OPEC+ supply
by Jason Wong
US equities bounce-back after Friday's lurch down as investors buy the dip. Oil prices down as market eyes greater OPEC+ supply
US Federal Reserve Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on May 3, 2023
NZ & Australia await US tariff hikes
Fed keeps policy unchanged. US economy bounces back 3% in Q2 after 0.5% contraction in Q1; core PCE deflator higher than expected. Data pushes up USD and US rates
by Jason Wong
Fed keeps policy unchanged. US economy bounces back 3% in Q2 after 0.5% contraction in Q1; core PCE deflator higher than expected. Data pushes up USD and US rates
USD, Abraham Lincoln
USD broadly stronger
Decent rally in US Treasuries overnight, with various drivers at play. US-China end trade talks. China says both sides agree on maintaining the truce. Oil prices up nearly 4%. IMF upgrades global growth outlook
by Jason Wong
Decent rally in US Treasuries overnight, with various drivers at play. US-China end trade talks. China says both sides agree on maintaining the truce. Oil prices up nearly 4%. IMF upgrades global growth outlook
Both the NZD and AUD slip on global forces
Early joy on US-EU trade deal quickly evaporates, with euro slumping 1.3%; European equities and rates down modestly. USD broadly stronger. Oil rises
by Jason Wong
Early joy on US-EU trade deal quickly evaporates, with euro slumping 1.3%; European equities and rates down modestly. USD broadly stronger. Oil rises
Global financial markets calm
Trump hardens his position on EU tariffs. Markets see no chance of a US July rate cut despite Trump's shouting. Political uncertainty in Japan
by Jason Wong
Trump hardens his position on EU tariffs. Markets see no chance of a US July rate cut despite Trump's shouting. Political uncertainty in Japan
NYSE trading floor
Higher NZ inflation track ignored by wholesale markets
Stronger than expected US economic data, including retail sales, support US equities and the USD. Little net impact on the bond market
by Jason Wong
Stronger than expected US economic data, including retail sales, support US equities and the USD. Little net impact on the bond market
Trump shifty behind Powell
NZD lower after whippy overnight trading
US PPI data undershoots, supporting Treasury market but notable steepening in yield curve. Markets volatile after report Trump discussed firing Fed Chair Powell, but then he walked it back
by Jason Wong
US PPI data undershoots, supporting Treasury market but notable steepening in yield curve. Markets volatile after report Trump discussed firing Fed Chair Powell, but then he walked it back
NZD softish, but not as soft of the JPY where election issues weigh
US CPI data showing the expected signs of increased tariffs feeding into higher inflation. Market pares scope for Fed easing this year; US Treasury rates higher across the curve
by Jason Wong
US CPI data showing the expected signs of increased tariffs feeding into higher inflation. Market pares scope for Fed easing this year; US Treasury rates higher across the curve
Currencies on chessboard
NZD and AUD softer
Muted market reaction to Trump’s weekend threat to raise tariffs on the EU and Mexico to 30%. US equities up modestly; US Treasury yields barely higher; USD broadly stronger
by Jason Wong
Muted market reaction to Trump’s weekend threat to raise tariffs on the EU and Mexico to 30%. US equities up modestly; US Treasury yields barely higher; USD broadly stronger
Global rates higher. UST curve steeper. Risk-off sentiment brings softer NZD
Trump issues more tariff threats, raising Canada to 35% and suggesting a 15 or 20% tariff rate to apply to remaining countries. Risk sentiment to remain dampened by Trump's weekend threat to lift EU and Mexico tariffs to 30%
by Jason Wong
Trump issues more tariff threats, raising Canada to 35% and suggesting a 15 or 20% tariff rate to apply to remaining countries. Risk sentiment to remain dampened by Trump's weekend threat to lift EU and Mexico tariffs to 30%
NYSE trading floor
NZD moves up, but AUD rises more
Global equity markets probing fresh record highs. US Treasury yields slightly higher. High risk sentiment supports commodity currencies
by Jason Wong
Global equity markets probing fresh record highs. US Treasury yields slightly higher. High risk sentiment supports commodity currencies
currencies
Little market reaction to RBNZ's on-hold decision; NZD steady
More tariff letters but for US trading partners well down the pecking order; more to come. Optimism around a US-EU trade deal in coming days. Global equities higher. US Treasuries well supported
by Jason Wong
1
More tariff letters but for US trading partners well down the pecking order; more to come. Optimism around a US-EU trade deal in coming days. Global equities higher. US Treasuries well supported
Currencies
Currency markets calm even as the US reacts to its inability to make trade deals
US equities trading flat, complacent about threat of higher tariffs; US Treasury yields higher and curve steeper. Net currency movements have been modest, with the AUD a clear outperformer after the RBA shock
by Jason Wong
US equities trading flat, complacent about threat of higher tariffs; US Treasury yields higher and curve steeper. Net currency movements have been modest, with the AUD a clear outperformer after the RBA shock
G10 currencies
NZD weakens on risk caution
Trump starts notifying countries of new import tariff rates, effective 1-August. These currently range between 25-40%, notably Japan and South Korea at 25%. More letters coming today and coming days. Markets not happy
by Jason Wong
Trump starts notifying countries of new import tariff rates, effective 1-August. These currently range between 25-40%, notably Japan and South Korea at 25%. More letters coming today and coming days. Markets not happy
Liberation Day shambles being repeated
A whiff of negative risk sentiment ahead of the July 9 end-of-pause day regarding reciprocal tariffs. US equity futures fall. Commodity currencies edge lower
by Jason Wong
A whiff of negative risk sentiment ahead of the July 9 end-of-pause day regarding reciprocal tariffs. US equity futures fall. Commodity currencies edge lower
NYSE trading floor
USD rises, then pulls back
US nonfarm payrolls up in June, unemployment rate fall. Stronger headline figures send US rates higher across the curve. US equities close at another fresh record high. US Budget bill passes after the early market close
by Jason Wong
US nonfarm payrolls up in June, unemployment rate fall. Stronger headline figures send US rates higher across the curve. US equities close at another fresh record high. US Budget bill passes after the early market close
NYSE trading floor
NZD up while other majors reach fresh 2025 highs against the USD
US rates lower, with the possible appointment of a "low-rates" guy to the US Fed just another reason to sell the USD. USD indices fall to fresh multi-year lows. But equity markets probe record highs
by Jason Wong
US rates lower, with the possible appointment of a "low-rates" guy to the US Fed just another reason to sell the USD. USD indices fall to fresh multi-year lows. But equity markets probe record highs
US Fed building sign
All key NZD crosses are higher
Calm market conditions overnight. EUR and GBP push up to fresh 2025 highs; NZD solidifies recovery above 60 USc. A full 25bps rate cut now priced for the US Fed by September
by Jason Wong
Calm market conditions overnight. EUR and GBP push up to fresh 2025 highs; NZD solidifies recovery above 60 USc. A full 25bps rate cut now priced for the US Fed by September