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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 2 months

Latest articles

Domestic wholesale interest rates notably higher
US equities flat and little change in US Treasuries, despite plethora of data and earnings. USD broadly weaker, reversing some of prior day's strength; NZD back just over 62 USc and little change on the crosses
19th Apr 23, 7:51am
by Jason Wong
US equities flat and little change in US Treasuries, despite plethora of data and earnings. USD broadly weaker, reversing some of prior day's strength; NZD back just over 62 USc and little change on the crosses
NZD back below 62 USc, NZD/AUD drifts down towards 92 AUc
US Treasury yields continue to push higher on less concern about banking sector and stronger data - Empire manufacturing survey much stronger than expected. NZGBs outperform
18th Apr 23, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields continue to push higher on less concern about banking sector and stronger data - Empire manufacturing survey much stronger than expected. NZGBs outperform
NZD struggles at end of last week
US core retail sales not as weak as expected; 1 yr-ahead inflation expectations surge to 4.6%; Fed's Waller urges more tightening. USD rebounds on all that; US Treasury yields higher led by the front end
17th Apr 23, 7:40am
by Jason Wong
US core retail sales not as weak as expected; 1 yr-ahead inflation expectations surge to 4.6%; Fed's Waller urges more tightening. USD rebounds on all that; US Treasury yields higher led by the front end
NZD/AUD recovers after strong Australian jobs report; NZD crosses recover
Weaker US PPI inflation, higher jobless claims play to theme of weaker US economy and moderating inflation pressures, adding in expectations of just one more Fed rate hike, USD remains under pressure; US Treasury yields slightly higher
14th Apr 23, 7:47am
by Jason Wong
Weaker US PPI inflation, higher jobless claims play to theme of weaker US economy and moderating inflation pressures, adding in expectations of just one more Fed rate hike, USD remains under pressure; US Treasury yields slightly higher
USD and AUD compasses
NZD/AUD continues to drift lower and NZ/EUR falls to fresh two and a half year low
US CPI rises just 0.1% m/m; core up 0.4% - strong enough to maintain expectations for another likely Fed hike next month. US Treasury yields fall post CPI but then reverses much of that price action
13th Apr 23, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
US CPI rises just 0.1% m/m; core up 0.4% - strong enough to maintain expectations for another likely Fed hike next month. US Treasury yields fall post CPI but then reverses much of that price action
NZD shows notable underperformance, weaker on all the crosses
US Treasury yields push higher, ahead of key CPI data tonight. IMF downgrades forecasts. China credit growth strong
12th Apr 23, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
US Treasury yields push higher, ahead of key CPI data tonight. IMF downgrades forecasts. China credit growth strong
backfire
RBNZ's shock 50bps hike has back-fired; NZ rates mainly lower as market prices in eventual policy reversal
US Treasury yields higher after solid non-farm payrolls report; other labour market data show clearer weaker trends. USD broadly stronger. NZD re-tests sub-0.62 level
11th Apr 23, 7:56am
by Jason Wong
23
US Treasury yields higher after solid non-farm payrolls report; other labour market data show clearer weaker trends. USD broadly stronger. NZD re-tests sub-0.62 level
USD well supported on safe haven flows; NZD/USD fully reverses
Weaker US ADP employment and services ISM data push US Treasury yields lower. RBNZ shocks with a 50bps hike. NZ curve flattens; market sees a good chance of easier policy in the second half, when the economy is likely to be deeper in recession
6th Apr 23, 7:58am
by Jason Wong
Weaker US ADP employment and services ISM data push US Treasury yields lower. RBNZ shocks with a 50bps hike. NZ curve flattens; market sees a good chance of easier policy in the second half, when the economy is likely to be deeper in recession
USD dripping or melting
AUD underperforms; NZD:AUD back higher
US JOLTS labour market report shows much weaker demand for labour - US Treasury yields down 6-12bps, equities weaker, USD weaker. RBA opts for a pause
5th Apr 23, 8:04am
by Jason Wong
US JOLTS labour market report shows much weaker demand for labour - US Treasury yields down 6-12bps, equities weaker, USD weaker. RBA opts for a pause
oil and currencies
NZD higher, but NZD:AUD down nearly -1%
Higher oil prices drive global rates higher but reversal follows after weak US ISM manufacturing report; net change in yields is lower. NZ QSBO today; RBA meeting with consensus tilted towards a pause, market more convicted in that call than economists
4th Apr 23, 7:51am
by Jason Wong
Higher oil prices drive global rates higher but reversal follows after weak US ISM manufacturing report; net change in yields is lower. NZ QSBO today; RBA meeting with consensus tilted towards a pause, market more convicted in that call than economists
Stronger USD into month-end; NZD closes up after stronger China PMI data
Weaker than expected US core PCE deflator drives US Treasuries down 8-11bps. Spillover to European yields. Banks borrow less in aggregate from the Fed, further sign that the most acute phase of liquidity crisis is over
3rd Apr 23, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
Weaker than expected US core PCE deflator drives US Treasuries down 8-11bps. Spillover to European yields. Banks borrow less in aggregate from the Fed, further sign that the most acute phase of liquidity crisis is over
Broad weakness in USD sees NZD rise
Market conditions calm (again); equities push higher, US Treasuries well contained. German inflation falls but core inflation in Euro area too strong for comfort
31st Mar 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
Market conditions calm (again); equities push higher, US Treasuries well contained. German inflation falls but core inflation in Euro area too strong for comfort
banknote roll
USD broadly weaker so NZD and AUD rise 1%
Markets calm compared to recent weeks. Global rates push higher. US equities push lower. 'No news' is not bad news
29th Mar 23, 7:51am
by Jason Wong
Markets calm compared to recent weeks. Global rates push higher. US equities push lower. 'No news' is not bad news
confident businessman
Confidence in banking system improves
Improved confidence drives global rates significantly higher; US 2-year rate back at 4%; front-end led curve flattening. And there were some modest gains in equities despite big lift in rates
28th Mar 23, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
14
Improved confidence drives global rates significantly higher; US 2-year rate back at 4%; front-end led curve flattening. And there were some modest gains in equities despite big lift in rates
USD broadly stronger. Wide ranges for global rates
Deutsche Bank comes under speculative selling pressure on Friday; weighs down European equities and euro. Authorities continue to convey confidence in the resilience of the US banking system; US equities show modest gains
27th Mar 23, 7:44am
by Jason Wong
Deutsche Bank comes under speculative selling pressure on Friday; weighs down European equities and euro. Authorities continue to convey confidence in the resilience of the US banking system; US equities show modest gains
Jerome Powell
Rates lower, USD broadly weaker post FOMC; NZD up over 1%
Fed opts for a 25bps hike, taking the Fed Funds target range to 4.75-5%; softens policy guidance as tighter credit conditions will weigh on activity and inflation
23rd Mar 23, 7:58am
by Jason Wong
Fed opts for a 25bps hike, taking the Fed Funds target range to 4.75-5%; softens policy guidance as tighter credit conditions will weigh on activity and inflation
leaping over risk
USD rises and NZD, AUD and JPY underperform
Risk appetite improves on ongoing support from the authorities to help contain banking system contagion. Global equities and rates higher; US 2-year Treasuries up 19bps, 10-year rate up 10bps
22nd Mar 23, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
1
Risk appetite improves on ongoing support from the authorities to help contain banking system contagion. Global equities and rates higher; US 2-year Treasuries up 19bps, 10-year rate up 10bps
smoldering embers
US Treasury yields higher following earlier chunky falls; equities higher. USD broadly weaker but NZD underperforms
Early lift in risk appetite gives way to renewed concern over wipe-out of AT1 note holders, but risk appetite does recover. US bank stocks mostly higher but First Republic Bank in more trouble
21st Mar 23, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
Early lift in risk appetite gives way to renewed concern over wipe-out of AT1 note holders, but risk appetite does recover. US bank stocks mostly higher but First Republic Bank in more trouble
Risk appetite weaker. Broadly weaker USD; NZD outperforms, finishes near its high for the week
US bank's tap Fed for US$165 bln in borrowing via the discount window and emergency loan program. Focus this week will remain on distress in funding markets; Uncertainty reins
20th Mar 23, 7:49am
by Jason Wong
US bank's tap Fed for US$165 bln in borrowing via the discount window and emergency loan program. Focus this week will remain on distress in funding markets; Uncertainty reins
global-down
Lack of confidence in Credit Suisse sends market into (another) tailspin
Risk appetite plunges. Market calls time on Fed rate hike cycle - much easier policy priced from June meeting; ECB hike for tonight pared down. NZD mixed despite warning from S&P on NZs massive current account deficit
16th Mar 23, 7:58am
by Jason Wong
3
Risk appetite plunges. Market calls time on Fed rate hike cycle - much easier policy priced from June meeting; ECB hike for tonight pared down. NZD mixed despite warning from S&P on NZs massive current account deficit
Currency markets well contained. NZD settles in
Another wild trading session, but conditions now seem to have settled; worst of the turbulence over? US CPI data close to market expectations; core inflation pressures still too high for comfort; market biased towards a 25bps Fed hike next week
15th Mar 23, 8:01am
by Jason Wong
Another wild trading session, but conditions now seem to have settled; worst of the turbulence over? US CPI data close to market expectations; core inflation pressures still too high for comfort; market biased towards a 25bps Fed hike next week
market crisis
Markets in turmoil. Authorities quick to offer market support to stem contagion risk
Market significantly reprices monetary policy outlook; easier policy back in sight for second half in the US. Treasury yields plunge, led by short end. Risk appetite weaker but NZD (+1.7%) outperforms, alongside AUD and JPY
14th Mar 23, 7:59am
by Jason Wong
4
Market significantly reprices monetary policy outlook; easier policy back in sight for second half in the US. Treasury yields plunge, led by short end. Risk appetite weaker but NZD (+1.7%) outperforms, alongside AUD and JPY
Collapse of major US bank sends market in a tailspin; Risk appetite plunges. Scene set for lower NZ rates on the open
US monetary policy expectations reverse course. Bank collapse overshadows US employment report; strong employment but unemployment rises and wages soft
13th Mar 23, 7:44am
by Jason Wong
1
US monetary policy expectations reverse course. Bank collapse overshadows US employment report; strong employment but unemployment rises and wages soft
USD broadly weaker; modest gain in NZD
US jobless claims show a notable lift; Challenger job layoffs surge even higher. The softer US labour market data drive US Treasury yields lower; 2-year rate back below 5%, 10-year rate below 4%
10th Mar 23, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
US jobless claims show a notable lift; Challenger job layoffs surge even higher. The softer US labour market data drive US Treasury yields lower; 2-year rate back below 5%, 10-year rate below 4%
rate diversions
Currencies stable but interest rates volatile
US 2s10s inverts further with higher short end rates and lower long term rates. Bank of Canada pauses tightening cycle as expected. NZ 2-year rate swap blasts up through 5.5% on global forces
9th Mar 23, 8:04am
by Jason Wong
US 2s10s inverts further with higher short end rates and lower long term rates. Bank of Canada pauses tightening cycle as expected. NZ 2-year rate swap blasts up through 5.5% on global forces
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