Jason Wong

Iran orchestrates a missile strike on a US base in Qatar; but well-telegraphed and seen more as symbolic than an escalation in the conflict. Market relieved that oil infrastructure not targeted. Risk assets recover strongly

Iran orchestrates a missile strike on a US base in Qatar; but well-telegraphed and seen more as symbolic than an escalation in the conflict. Market relieved that oil infrastructure not targeted. Risk assets recover strongly

Investors adopt a cautious stance as the US becomes more involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. US data weaker than expected. Global equities weaker, US Treasuries lower and USD broadly stronger

Investors adopt a cautious stance as the US becomes more involved in the Iran-Israel conflict. US data weaker than expected. Global equities weaker, US Treasuries lower and USD broadly stronger

Risk assets recover as Israel dominates battle against Iran; no sign of conflict spreading to elsewhere in the Middle East and Iran seeks end to hostilities. Global equities stronger, US Treasury yields higher and oil prices lower

Risk assets recover as Israel dominates battle against Iran; no sign of conflict spreading to elsewhere in the Middle East and Iran seeks end to hostilities. Global equities stronger, US Treasury yields higher and oil prices lower

Weaker US inflation data drive down US rates. USD also weaker, but NZD and AUD see no net benefit after US-China trade talks end with parties just agreeing to keep the previous agreement, with no further progress

Weaker US inflation data drive down US rates. USD also weaker, but NZD and AUD see no net benefit after US-China trade talks end with parties just agreeing to keep the previous agreement, with no further progress

US-China trade talks continue for a second day in London. US treasuries range trade and only small moves in currencies

US-China trade talks continue for a second day in London. US treasuries range trade and only small moves in currencies

Lower US inflation expectations support US Treasuries and rates nudge down. USD broadly weaker; NZD pushes up. Markets await China/US trade negotiation news

Lower US inflation expectations support US Treasuries and rates nudge down. USD broadly weaker; NZD pushes up. Markets await China/US trade negotiation news

Trump and Xi speak. Trump says the call "a very positive conclusion"; China readout not as positive. ECB cuts as expected but signals being close to the end of the easing cycle. US initial jobless claims rise to highest level since October

Trump and Xi speak. Trump says the call "a very positive conclusion"; China readout not as positive. ECB cuts as expected but signals being close to the end of the easing cycle. US initial jobless claims rise to highest level since October

US equities are stronger, supported by the JOLTs report, which showed resilience in the labour market. US treasuries reversed course after the report, pushing up yields across the curve, and the 10-year rate is up slightly

US equities are stronger, supported by the JOLTs report, which showed resilience in the labour market. US treasuries reversed course after the report, pushing up yields across the curve, and the 10-year rate is up slightly

Global rates higher with spillover from a poor ultra-long bond auction in Japan, but the UST 10-yr rate hasn’t pushed much higher. The NZD sustained the modest gain seen after the RBNZ’s new neutral bias, following its rate cut

Global rates higher with spillover from a poor ultra-long bond auction in Japan, but the UST 10-yr rate hasn’t pushed much higher. The NZD sustained the modest gain seen after the RBNZ’s new neutral bias, following its rate cut

US equities surge, encouraged by de-escalation of US-EU trade tensions while US consumer confidence rebounds sharply. Japan's move to address issues with its ultra-long bond market supports global rates market, with rates falling around the globe

US equities surge, encouraged by de-escalation of US-EU trade tensions while US consumer confidence rebounds sharply. Japan's move to address issues with its ultra-long bond market supports global rates market, with rates falling around the globe

Trump backtracks on Friday's threat to impose 50% tariff on EU. Euro Stoxx 600 index up 1%, S&P500 futures up 1.3%; US 10-year Treasury future unchanged, reversing move in NZ session

Trump backtracks on Friday's threat to impose 50% tariff on EU. Euro Stoxx 600 index up 1%, S&P500 futures up 1.3%; US 10-year Treasury future unchanged, reversing move in NZ session

US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms

US consumer sentiment falls to historical lows, inflation expectations shoot higher. Trump's tax bill fails early in the process, a rare event. Moody's downgrades US credit rating. NZ inflation expectations rise; domestic rates market underperforms

In a heavy US data release day, activity and pricing indicators were weak, driving down US rates and supported US equities. The NZD and AUD underperform again

In a heavy US data release day, activity and pricing indicators were weak, driving down US rates and supported US equities. The NZD and AUD underperform again

US Treasury yields push higher as focus turns to the US fiscal outlook. US equities 'consolidate'. Despite talk, currency markets little-changed

US Treasury yields push higher as focus turns to the US fiscal outlook. US equities 'consolidate'. Despite talk, currency markets little-changed

US CPI report softer than expected, but rates market largely ignores it, with a focus on tariffs lifting future inflation; US Treasury yields push higher, with 10-year rate hitting 4.5%

US CPI report softer than expected, but rates market largely ignores it, with a focus on tariffs lifting future inflation; US Treasury yields push higher, with 10-year rate hitting 4.5%

Significant de-escalation of the US-China trade war a better outcome than expected. Equity markets have soared. Global rates are much higher, USD rises strongly

Significant de-escalation of the US-China trade war a better outcome than expected. Equity markets have soared. Global rates are much higher, USD rises strongly

Risk sentiment is higher on trade war de-escalation with a US and UK trade “framework”. US equities are up over 1% and Treasury yields are up 10-13bps. Hopes for trade deals have supported the USD across the board

Risk sentiment is higher on trade war de-escalation with a US and UK trade “framework”. US equities are up over 1% and Treasury yields are up 10-13bps. Hopes for trade deals have supported the USD across the board

US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the USD is broadly weaker, with the market remaining fixated on tariffs and the impact for the US economy. Strong GDT dairy auction and oil prices rebound 3%

US equities are lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the USD is broadly weaker, with the market remaining fixated on tariffs and the impact for the US economy. Strong GDT dairy auction and oil prices rebound 3%

Taiwan dollar surges again, driven by speculation on trade deals. US-Japan trade negotiations not looking good for Japan so far. Stronger than expected ISM survey assuages fear of US economic recession

Taiwan dollar surges again, driven by speculation on trade deals. US-Japan trade negotiations not looking good for Japan so far. Stronger than expected ISM survey assuages fear of US economic recession

US equities higher after strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta; ISM PMI didn’t fall as much as expected, even if there are clear signs of cracks opening in the US economy. Chatter that the US is trying to initiate trade talks with China

US equities higher after strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta; ISM PMI didn’t fall as much as expected, even if there are clear signs of cracks opening in the US economy. Chatter that the US is trying to initiate trade talks with China

US economic data awful - exploding trade deficit adds to Q1 GDP downside risk; weaker consumer confidence and drop in job openings. Some backdown on auto tariffs but China won't "kneel down" on trade war

US economic data awful - exploding trade deficit adds to Q1 GDP downside risk; weaker consumer confidence and drop in job openings. Some backdown on auto tariffs but China won't "kneel down" on trade war

China's foreign ministry confirms China and the US are NOT engaged in trade talks. Another poor Fed regional survey; plenty of media commentary on reduced China-US trade and prospect of empty US shelves ahead

China's foreign ministry confirms China and the US are NOT engaged in trade talks. Another poor Fed regional survey; plenty of media commentary on reduced China-US trade and prospect of empty US shelves ahead

Claim then denials on US tariff policy shifts. Softer European and US PMI data; US beige book shows early economic impact of tariffs. Equities rise, then fade. USD broadly stronger

Claim then denials on US tariff policy shifts. Softer European and US PMI data; US beige book shows early economic impact of tariffs. Equities rise, then fade. USD broadly stronger

More positive mood music around trade and tariffs, with "significant progress" on a US-India trade deal and Bessent expecting de-escalating US-China trade tension. IMF slashes growth forecasts on the trade war

More positive mood music around trade and tariffs, with "significant progress" on a US-India trade deal and Bessent expecting de-escalating US-China trade tension. IMF slashes growth forecasts on the trade war

Trump renews attack on Fed Chair Powell, reinvigorating the "Sell America" trade. US-Japan trade negotiations not going well. US assets trading more like a Banana republic. US longer-term rates increase and USD falls to fresh multi-year lows

Trump renews attack on Fed Chair Powell, reinvigorating the "Sell America" trade. US-Japan trade negotiations not going well. US assets trading more like a Banana republic. US longer-term rates increase and USD falls to fresh multi-year lows