Stuart Ritson

US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge

US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge

Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction

Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction

US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise

US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise

Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high

Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high

Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility

Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility

Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot

Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot

US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March

US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March

Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold

Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold

Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea

Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea

Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year

Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year

The US Fed left rates on hold as expected. Policy makers continue to signal 50bp of cuts for this year. Plan slower balance sheet runoff. BofJ left rates on a cautious hold. NZ consumer confidence slumps

The US Fed left rates on hold as expected. Policy makers continue to signal 50bp of cuts for this year. Plan slower balance sheet runoff. BofJ left rates on a cautious hold. NZ consumer confidence slumps

Strong rebound for US equities. But US consumers' long term inflation expectations reached the highest level since 1993 while sentiment slumped. Euro gains after after a deal for massive German fiscal expansion

Strong rebound for US equities. But US consumers' long term inflation expectations reached the highest level since 1993 while sentiment slumped. Euro gains after after a deal for massive German fiscal expansion

US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium take effect prompting retaliatory actions from the EU. US CPI weaker than expected though tariffs create uncertainty looking forward. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.75% as expected

US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium take effect prompting retaliatory actions from the EU. US CPI weaker than expected though tariffs create uncertainty looking forward. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.75% as expected

US labour market data in line with consensus expectations. The S&P rebounded from earlier losses to close higher. Fed chair Powell reiterated the central bank doesn’t need to hurry to cut rates

US labour market data in line with consensus expectations. The S&P rebounded from earlier losses to close higher. Fed chair Powell reiterated the central bank doesn’t need to hurry to cut rates

Large moves across European markets after Germany revealed plans to allow for more defense and infrastructure spending. US services ISM beats consensus expectations breaking the run of weak US activity data

Large moves across European markets after Germany revealed plans to allow for more defense and infrastructure spending. US services ISM beats consensus expectations breaking the run of weak US activity data

The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data

The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data

Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%

Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%

Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel

Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel

European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports

European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports

US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December

US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December

Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it

Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it

Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce

Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce

Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD

Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD

Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December

Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December

Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower

Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower