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Stuart Ritson
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A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
27th Nov 23, 7:32am
The US dollar remains under pressure. NZD/USD ended last week at 3-month highs just below 0.6100 amid the broad US dollar weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
21st Nov 23, 7:51am
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Global asset markets continue to consolidate recent moves in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Oil prices have continue to rally ahead of the Opec+ meeting on Sunday
Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
20th Nov 23, 7:28am
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Oil prices recover from slump on news Saudi Arabia and others will extend supply cuts. USD weaker. 10-year US treasuries stable. UK Gilts outperformed following softer than expected UK retail sales
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
15th Nov 23, 7:36am
There were large moves across global markets as US CPI came in below consensus expectations, suggesting the US Fed hiking cycle is complete and the next move will be a cut in 2024. Equity markets made strong gains while UST yields fell
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
13th Nov 23, 7:23am
US equities extended the recent rally despite weak consumer sentiment data and cautious comments Fed Chair Powell. Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative from stable
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
8th Nov 23, 7:55am
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
6th Nov 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
3rd Nov 23, 8:00am
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
30th Oct 23, 7:32am
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3
27th Oct 23, 7:48am
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3
US equities lost ground as treasury yields moved sharply higher impacting risk sentiment. The Bank of Canada left rates steady at 5% as expected. Markets look ahead to the ECB meeting this evening and US Q3 GDP data
26th Oct 23, 7:49am
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US equities lost ground as treasury yields moved sharply higher impacting risk sentiment. The Bank of Canada left rates steady at 5% as expected. Markets look ahead to the ECB meeting this evening and US Q3 GDP data
Global bonds markets under pressure with US treasuries making fresh multi-year highs ahead of a widely anticipated speech by Fed Chair Powell. Oil prices higher. The Chinese economy expanded 4.9% in Q3, faster than expected
19th Oct 23, 7:54am
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Global bonds markets under pressure with US treasuries making fresh multi-year highs ahead of a widely anticipated speech by Fed Chair Powell. Oil prices higher. The Chinese economy expanded 4.9% in Q3, faster than expected
Rising investor risk aversion hangs over global markets. Global equities fell and flows into safe haven assets picked up. Both oil and gold surged. US consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since May
16th Oct 23, 7:23am
Rising investor risk aversion hangs over global markets. Global equities fell and flows into safe haven assets picked up. Both oil and gold surged. US consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since May
US Fed in 'wait and see' mode with PPI slightly higher than expected and eyes on US CPI. China considers raising 2023 budget deficit to allow for more stimulus
12th Oct 23, 7:52am
US Fed in 'wait and see' mode with PPI slightly higher than expected and eyes on US CPI. China considers raising 2023 budget deficit to allow for more stimulus
US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations resulting in significant moves across asset markets. They rose double the consensus estimate, with sizable upward revisions to previous months. US treasuries sold off aggressively following the data
9th Oct 23, 7:35am
US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations resulting in significant moves across asset markets. They rose double the consensus estimate, with sizable upward revisions to previous months. US treasuries sold off aggressively following the data
Markets stable ahead of US labour data. Oil down -14% from September highs. US initial jobless claims steady. Global bond markets take pause from the aggressive recent sell-off
6th Oct 23, 7:31am
Markets stable ahead of US labour data. Oil down -14% from September highs. US initial jobless claims steady. Global bond markets take pause from the aggressive recent sell-off
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
5th Oct 23, 7:50am
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
2nd Oct 23, 7:43am
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
21st Sep 23, 7:54am
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies
18th Sep 23, 7:45am
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies
Response across financial markets to higher US CPI was largely subdued. Eurozone Industrial production fell. The UK economy contracted more than expected
14th Sep 23, 7:52am
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Response across financial markets to higher US CPI was largely subdued. Eurozone Industrial production fell. The UK economy contracted more than expected
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
11th Sep 23, 7:24am
US treasury yields moved higher supporting the US Dollar which rose for the eighth straight week, its longest run since 2005. China consumer prices increased 0.1% y/y in August. Although China edged out of deflation, soft pricing pressures point to weak d
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness
7th Sep 23, 8:06am
The ISM US services sector survey was stronger than expected. US treasuries extended the recent move higher. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. Asian policy makers have been pushing back against currency weakness