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Stuart Ritson
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US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment
9th Jun 25, 7:41am
US labour market data shows resilience despite the elevated policy uncertainty. Treasury yields sharply higher as Fed easing expectations are trimmed. Further signs of an easing in US-China trade tensions supports risk sentiment
Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high
5th Jun 25, 7:48am
Weaker than expected data supports rally in US treasuries. US Services ISM contracts. Equity markets less impacted with the S&P500 modestly higher and global stocks reaching a record high
US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output
3rd Jun 25, 7:28am
US manufacturing ISM softer than expected reflecting the uncertain economic backdrop. Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite news that OPEC+ had agreed to increase oil output
Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar
30th May 25, 7:43am
Further macro uncertainty after a US court invalidated Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs. An initial S&P500 rally following the decision faded. Soft US economic data brought lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar
Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker
26th May 25, 7:20am
Trump threatened aggressive tariffs on the EU contributing to volatility in risk sensitive assets. S&P500 partially recovers from initial losses. Euro Stoxx down close to 2% and German bunds rally. US dollar broadly weaker
US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget
23rd May 25, 7:50am
US PMIs resilient despite economic uncertainty. Euro-area PMIs soft. US dollar makes broad based gains. Modest increase in the NZGB borrowing programme forecast at the Budget
Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced
22nd May 25, 7:39am
Growing fiscal concerns and a weak UST 20-auction contributed to a large rise in long end treasury yields. Surge in yields weigh on US equities. UK CPI higher than expected. GBP/USD reached a 3-year high with less BOE easing priced
The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields
21st May 25, 7:55am
The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.85% as expected and moved to a more dovish stance. The market priced additional easing and NZD/AUD gained. A weak government bond auction contributed to a surge in long end JGB yields
Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker
20th May 25, 7:46am
Initial weak risk sentiment linked to the US credit rating downgrade reverses. US 30-year yields reached 5.04%, the highest level since late 2023, before retracing. US dollar broadly weaker
US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall
12th May 25, 7:24am
US asset markets look ahead to trade talks between the US and China. US claims ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations. Chinese exports were surprisingly strong in April. Currency markets subdued overall
US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support
8th May 25, 7:52am
US Fed held rates steady and indicated the risk of higher inflation and unemployment had risen. More signs of a de-escalation in the trade war. China announced range of measures of economic support
Signs of potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China plus resilient US labour market data boosts equity markets
5th May 25, 7:11am
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Signs of potential de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China plus resilient US labour market data boosts equity markets
US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge
1st May 25, 7:47am
US economy contracts in Q1 amid a pre-tariff implementation surge in imports. Absolute moves in financial markets relatively small despite the economic data deluge
Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction
28th Apr 25, 7:29am
Positive risk sentiment continued despite conflicting news on tariff developments. The S&P advanced 0.7% extending its weekly gain to almost 5%. US treasury yields declined with limited economic data to provide direction
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise
14th Apr 25, 7:28am
US dollar under pressure with higher UST yields not providing support. The USD index fell to a three year low. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey expectations index slumped to the lowest level since 1980 while inflation expectations continued to rise
Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high
11th Apr 25, 7:59am
Further large swings in asset markets. US equities fall sharply. US CPI softer than expected though the data predates the impact of tariffs. Gold prices reach another record high
Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility
10th Apr 25, 7:45am
Equity indices surge higher after Trump announced a 90 day pause on the implementation of tariffs on non-retaliating countries. The S&P gained more than 7%. Huge bond market volatility
Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot
7th Apr 25, 7:20am
Extreme volatility across global markets after China escalated the trade war by hitting an extra 34% tariff on US goods. S&P closed 6% lower as growth assets slumped. Powell focused on inflation suggesting limited scope for a near-term policy pivot
US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March
2nd Apr 25, 7:45am
US economic data reflects economic uncertainty ahead of tariffs. ISM manufacturing index below expectations. Details point to weak activity and increasing inflation pressures. UST 10-year yield at lowest level since early March
Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold
31st Mar 25, 7:20am
Concerns about the widening trade war and stagflationary US economic data weighed on risk sensitive assets. US real consumption undershot expectations while core PCE moved higher. The S&P500 fell contributing to a rally in US treasuries and gold
Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea
28th Mar 25, 8:34am
Trade war intensifies after Trump orders 25% tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars, bringing retaliation threats from the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea
Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year
27th Mar 25, 7:46am
Soft risk tone overnight as uncertainty about US trade policy weighs on investor sentiment. US traded copper futures reach a record high after a 25% plus gain since the start of the year
The US Fed left rates on hold as expected. Policy makers continue to signal 50bp of cuts for this year. Plan slower balance sheet runoff. BofJ left rates on a cautious hold. NZ consumer confidence slumps
20th Mar 25, 7:55am
The US Fed left rates on hold as expected. Policy makers continue to signal 50bp of cuts for this year. Plan slower balance sheet runoff. BofJ left rates on a cautious hold. NZ consumer confidence slumps
Strong rebound for US equities. But US consumers' long term inflation expectations reached the highest level since 1993 while sentiment slumped. Euro gains after after a deal for massive German fiscal expansion
17th Mar 25, 7:29am
Strong rebound for US equities. But US consumers' long term inflation expectations reached the highest level since 1993 while sentiment slumped. Euro gains after after a deal for massive German fiscal expansion
US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium take effect prompting retaliatory actions from the EU. US CPI weaker than expected though tariffs create uncertainty looking forward. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.75% as expected
13th Mar 25, 7:42am
US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium take effect prompting retaliatory actions from the EU. US CPI weaker than expected though tariffs create uncertainty looking forward. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp to 2.75% as expected