Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has a new lower one year fixed rate 'special' of 4.45%. This is the lowest rate for this term for any bank except HSBC Premier. ASB has a similar rate advantage now for 18 mths, 2 years and 4 years fixed.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
FE Investments 8 month special has now ended.
RECORD HIGH I
New dwellings consents came in +10% higher in March than the same month a year ago. But the rise in the Auckland component is still not enough to solve Auckland's housing shortage. Consents for dwellings were strong in Hamilton, Tauranga and Christchurch. They remain very light in Wellington. Overall, the value of these consents were a new monthly record high. (Volumes were not a new record, however.)
RECORD HIGH II
Non-residential building consents also hit all-time record high. The increase was broad based, and pushes the focus to the construction industry's capacity to deliver all this new work.
PETERS & ACT RISE
It's election year and the latest political poll shows a rise for NZ First but with little change for the other left/right groups. Based on this poll, New Zealand First would be in the box seat to decide next NZ Government. Although minor, ACT registered its strongest in this poll since the last election.
A GOODS TRADE SURPLUS
There was a $332 mln trade surplus in March, almost double the level for the same period a year ago. Exports were at their highest level since March 2014; imports were their highest since December 2016. The annual merchandise trade result however is a deficit to March of -$3.7 bln, which is offset in part by our services surplus.
ON AND ON, BUT AGEING
Although they slipped just a little, business confidence levels remain quite elevated, as reported in the monthly ANZ survey. They say: "The economy is into its eighth year of economic expansion and while business confidence is well off its peak, survey indicators are still pointing to solid growth. Firms are optimistic about their own businesses, and still want to hire and invest. Readings remain elevated. Our composite growth indicator is pointing to 3½-4% growth."
THE COMEBACK KID ?
Japan's improving economic outlook has lowered risks over the trajectory of public debt. Revised economic data show the economy is larger and growing at a faster rate than previously indicated. This is enough for ratings agency Fitch to upgrade their outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' for their A rating.
UPSIDE ?
The latest price monitoring by the USDA of dairy prices reinforced the rise-and-rise of butter prices, but indicated little change from what the last auction's results showed. The derivatives market is signalling WMP prices still have +4.4% to gain to meet their bids, even if those bids are slipping a little.
OCKER PARTY OVER ?
Data for the first 27 days of April from CoreLogic show Sydney house prices declining by -0.1% for the first time since December 2015, while Melbourne's property prices have risen by +0.5%, but that is now only half as much as for March.
MISLEADING FARMERS IS COSTLY
Aussie dairy co-operative Murray Goulburn is facing court action after the ACCC alleged it misled farmers about prices it would pay for milk.
WHOLESALE RATES SLIP
Rates for terms of 2 years and longer are all down another -1 bp today. The 90 day bank bill has risen by +1 bp and is now 1.98%
NZ DOLLAR SLIPS TOO
There has been resumed slippage for the Kiwi dollar today today and it is now down to 68.7 USc. Against the AUD, we are slightly weaker also at 92 AUc. Against the EUR we are slightly softer as well at 63.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 73.5.
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Re: Japan
The central bank has been unable to reach its target of stable 2 percent inflation despite four years of stimulus from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. With only subdued inflation, workers have not seen significant pay hikes, meaning household spending has been weak. On the other hand, industrial production been increasing, thanks to a pick up in external demand, with the central bank saying the economy was in an expansion for the first time in about nine years. This has led to high corporate profits. Read more
Hang on a minute.
We have just committed most of the agricultural economy to riding the back of a scared cow
Two possible strategies, declare oats are a health risk or ask the goverment for leadership, advisors, a national producer board and heaps of money
Do we know anything about growing oats, except in Gore.
Talking of Wild Oats....and 20 question time.
RETIRED PERSON HEALTH MESSAGE
As I was lying around, pondering the problems of the world,
I realized that at my age I don't really give a rat's arse anymore.
.. If walking is good for your health, the postman would be immortal.
.. A whale swims all day, only eats fish, drinks water, but is still fat.
.. A rabbit runs and hops and only lives 15 years, while
.. A tortoise doesn't run and does mostly nothing, yet it lives for 150 years.
And you tell me to exercise?? I don't think so.
Just grant me the senility to forget the people I never liked, the good fortune to remember the ones I do, and the eyesight to tell the difference.
Now that I'm older here's what I've discovered:
1. I started out with nothing, and I still have most of it.
2. My wild oats are mostly enjoyed with prunes and all-bran.
3. I finally got my head together, and now my body is falling apart.
4. Funny, I don't remember being absent-minded.
5. Funny, I don't remember being absent-minded.
6. If all is not lost, then where the heck is it?
7. It was a whole lot easier to get older, than to get wiser.
8. Some days, you're the top dog; some days you're the lamp post.
9. I wish the buck really did stop here; I sure could use a few of them.
10. Kids in the back seat cause accidents.
11. Accidents in the back seat cause kids.
12. It's hard to make a comeback when you haven't been anywhere.
13. The world only beats a path to your door when you're in the bathroom.
14. If God wanted me to touch my toes, he'd have put them on my knees.
15. When I'm finally holding all the right cards, everyone wants to play chess.
16. Its not hard to meet expenses . . . they're everywhere.
17. The only difference between a rut and a grave is the depth.
18. These days, I spend a lot of time thinking about the hereafter . . .I go somewhere to get something, and then wonder what I'm "here after".
19. Funny, I don't remember being absent-minded.
20. HAVE I Presented THIS MESSAGE TO YOU BEFORE.....as it is Friday...might I ask.
I tried sowing them in a small way, when I was younger and full of vim and vigour...now I just sleep a lot......and live off the sheep's back.. ..No need for wild oats anymore.
Cannot pull the wool over my eyes. It ain't oats that are unhealthy, ..It is how they have been adulterated.
Why do you think....we have health issues...Gore blimey.....Gluten intolerance...at my age is almost unheard off...when I was a pup.
Chinese dairy import volumes originating from New Zealand declined to a four month low of 37% while import volumes originating within the U.S. increased to a six month high of 20%.
Mar ’17 Chinese whole milk powder (WMP) imports were particularly weak, declining 29.7% YOY to a seven year seasonal low, while skim milk powder (SMP) imports also finished 0.8% lower on a YOY basis
http://www.attenbabler.com/chinese-dairy-imports-update-apr-17/
Rogue one: Faithful GDP nowcasts
http://statisticalideas.blogspot.co.nz/2017/03/rogue-one-faitful-gdp-no…
The New York Fed’s parsimonious statement today tersely explained:
Today’s advance estimate of GDP growth for 2017:Q1 from the Commerce Department was 0.7%, substantially weaker than the latest FRBNY Staff Nowcast of 2.7%.
While that was of no value, pointing out merely the obvious, the regular weekly report gives us a clue ironically in trying to explain why we should readily trust its methods.
Extensive back-testing of the model, research, and practical experience have shown that the platform is able to approximate best practices in macroeconomic forecasts. The model produces forecasts that are as accurate as, and strongly correlated with, predictions based on best judgment.
There is a whole lot to that statement covered underneath statistical jargon and buzzwords. That they attempt to “approximate best practices” rather than the results of those practices is especially significant. The New York Fed is trying to model the economy that “should be” rather that the Atlanta Fed’s model of the economy as it actually is. Very important to the former is sentiment, one reason why monetary policy builds itself philosophically around rational expectations and the institutional expectation for successfully manipulating them. Read more
These guys know how to pick a sucker. Landcorp bet the farm and lost
Disgusting selling that Te Anau farm to Chinese. Locals were prepared to buy it for a decent price. Keep our productive land Kiwi owned. Let's hope the Overseas Investment commission overturns this sale. Could an Abel Tasman style kickstarter campaign be started to enable the buyer who offered $8.2m to match the Chinese price. Otherwise we are gonna look back in 20 years time and wonder how did we allow our farmland and water to be taken over by foreigners.
Landcorp decided the way forward was to leverage and go for production, dairy was a bit of a no-brainer. So from 1900 odd cows in 2000 to 77,000 today they lead the way, right of the cliff.
So now they have to pay the piper and it's going to cost, they would rather sell the leased dairy farms but they signed a 30 year contract I believe and the returns are all coloured red which makes it hard to sell the business case.
They say "It doesn't matter who owns it because we make the laws" but then forget that in the 1980s we couldn't even keep two acknowledged French terrorists in jail for committing murder in New Zealand due to threats on our trade.
It will be all too late when they throw their hands up and say "But how could we have known?"
But at least they'll have enjoyed their own muskets and blankets.
I think we should start a Company...We could call it
CORELAND. ....Kickstart a campaign...buy up all Free Land, going begging.
Each Taxpayer put in 500 bucks, it is Tax Deductible and free as a bird.
Get the Banks to dream up some Fractional Reserved.. money for a Mortgage.
For the Balance...(Might be a bit rocky to start with)
Offset that by offering Free Meat and Veg. ...and a Rocky Mountain Experience..
I will be Camp Commandant. We will have a Gay Old Time. Might even make a dollar or two.
Cannot lose.
Any Takers???.
Latest "you couldn't make it up" release;
We were looking at massive price rises and the loss of critical industry in the North thanks to a recent report.
Turns out to be total nonsense:
The Electricity Authority (EA) has rejected an Australian firm's cost-benefit analysis on which its reform plans had been based after finding a series of glaring errors.
The geographical and mathematical blunders included analysis based on the misunderstanding a possible new power station was in Rodney when it was in fact in the South Island.
The analysis also mistakenly located Hawke's Bay, Waikato and Wairarapa wind farms in the South Island, and overstated the Far North's power consumption by a factor of 10.
If the power price reform had gone through as originally proposed, line charges for Far North households could have gone up from $155 to $421 a year, and from $300 to $560 in Whangarei/Kaipara.
The previous analysis was sent back to Australian consulting firm Oakley Greenwood in February with orders to fix a series of errors, but later even more errors were found.
The EA declined to say how much the abandoned report had cost.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/article.cfm?c_id=15034…
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